저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 주식시장이 곧 급락할 것이라며 거품 붕괴를 강하게 경고한다. 핵심 주장: 다우지수는 과거 고점(약 14,000)과 급락(약 7,000) 후 반등해 24,000 근처까지 올랐지만, 미국 경제는 최근 10년간 연평균 약 1.33% 성장에 그쳐 주가 상승이 경제 실적과 괴리돼 있다고 주장한다. 시장 상황: 나스닥은 1% 이상 하락했고 구글, 아마존, 애플, 페이스북, 넷플릭스, 엔비디아, 페이팔, 일렉트로닉아츠, 액티비전블리자드 등 주요 기술주가 동반 약세를 보였다. 2017년 내내 시장을 주도했던 종목들이 흔들렸다. 근거 지표: 마진론(신용거래 잔고)이 주가와 함께 급증한 점을 근거로 삼는다. 레버리지는 상승기에는 가속기 역할을 하지만 하락기에는 더 빠른 하락을 낳으며, 이번 시장도 그렇게 급락할 가능성이 크다고 본다. 중앙은행 요인: 전 세계 중앙은행이 양적완화를 축소하면서 주식과 채권이 동시에 고평가된 상태라는 점을 지적한다. 골드만삭스 전략가들도 약세장이 올 것이라고 경고했다고 인용한다. 시나리오: 골드만삭스는 중기 자산 수익률 하락을 전망했고, 더 가능성이 낮은 시나리오로 주식과 채권 밸류에이션이 동시에 타격받는 급격한 하락을 언급했다. 연준 요인: 옐런 의장은 과열과 버블 붕괴를 우려하면서도 점진적 금리 인상을 계속하겠다는 입장을 밝혔다. 쉬프는 이를 연준이 거품을 키운 뒤 긴축으로 전환하는 신호로 본다. 반대 시각: 연착륙 가능성도 거론되지만, 쉬프 본인은 연착륙이 일어나지 않을 것이라고 본다. 전문가 전망: 뱅가드 수석이코노미스트 조 데이비스는 향후 주식시장이 크게 하락할 가능성을 70%로 제시했다. 이코노미스트지는 2010년 이후 강세 전망치 수준의 수익률이 계속되기 어렵다고 평가했다. 리스크: 주가가 역사적으로 고점일 때마다 폭락이 뒤따랐고, 현재가 그 '과열 말기' 국면이라는 점이 주된 위험 요인이다. 출연자 전망: 쉬프는 시장이 매우 빠르고 격렬하게 붕괴할 것이며, 월스트리트가 경험할 고통은 과거와 비교할 수 없을 것이라고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
did the NOC omic collapse begin today and now begin as stock crash the absurdity that we are witnessing in a financial markets is absolutely breathtaking just recently a good friend reminded me that the Dow peaked had just above 14,000 before the last stock market crash and stock prices were definitely overinflated at that time subsequently the Dow crashed below 7,000 before rebounding and now thanks to this week s rally we on the threshold of Dow 24,000 when you look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average you would be tempted to think that we must be in the greatest economic boom in American history but the truth is that our economy has only grown by an average of just 1 point 3 3 percent over the last 10 years every crazy stock market double throughout our history has always ended badly and this one will be no exception and even though the Dow showed a nice gain on Wednesday the Nasdaq got absolutely hammered in fact almost every major tech stock was down vid the following comes from CN and meanwhile big tech stocks which have propelled the market higher all year were tanking the Nasdaq fell more than 1% led by big drops in Google goog Elle tech 30 owner alphabet Amazon AMZN tech 30 Apple AAPL tech 30 Facebook FB tech 30 and Netflix NFLX tech 30 momentum darlings Nvidia NVDA tech 30 and PayPal py PL tech 30 and red-hot gaming stocks Electronic Arts EA tech 30 and Activision Blizzard a TVI tech 30 plunged 2 they have been some of the market s top stocks throughout most of 2017 many believe that the markets are about to turn down in a major way what goes up must eventually come down and at this point even Goldman Sachs is warning that a bear mark is coming it has seldom been the case that equities bonds and credit have been similarly expensive at the same time only in the roaring 20s and the golden 50s goldman sachs international strategists including christian willard Whisman wrote in the note this week all good things must come to an end and there will be a bear market eventually they said as central bank's cut back their quantitative easing pushing up the premiums investors demand to hold longer dated bonds returns are likely to be lower across assets over the medium term the analyst said a second less likely scenario would involve fast Payne stock and bond valuations would both get hit with the mix depending on whether the trigger involved a negative growth shock or a growth shock alongside and inflation pickup nobody believes that this crazy stock market party can go on forever these days the real debate seems to be between those that are convinced that the markets will crash violently and those that believe that a soft landing can be achieved I would definitely be in favor of a soft landing but those that have followed my work for an extended period of time know that I do not think that this will happen and with each passing day more prominent voices in the financial world are coming to the same conclusion here is one recent example Vanguard s chief economist Joe Davis said investors need to be prepared for a significant downturn in the stock market which is now at a 70 percent chance of crashing that chance is significantly higher than it has been over the past 60 years The Economist added it s unreasonable to expect rates of returns which exceeded our own bullish forecasts from 2010 to continue a stock market crash has followed every major stock double in our history and right at this moment we are in the terminal phase of one of the greatest stock market bubbles ever there are so many indicators that are screaming that we are in danger and one of the favorite ones that I like to point to his margin debt the following commentary and chart were recently published by will fritter this chart shows margin debt red line left scale and the SNP 500 blue line right scale both adjusted for inflation to tune out the effects of the value of the dollar over the decade stock market leverages the big accelerator on the way up leverage supplies liquidity that has been freshly created by the lender this isn't team money moving from one asset to another this is money that is being created to be plowed into stocks and when stocks sink leverage becomes the big accelerator on the way down markets tend to go down much faster than they go up and I have a feeling that when this market crashes it is going to happen very very rapidly the only reason stock prices ever got this high in the first place was due to unprecedented intervention by global central banks they created trillions of dollars out of thinner and plowed those funds directly into the financial markets and of course that was going to inflate asset prices but now global central banks are putting on the brakes simultaneously and this has got to be one of the greatest sell signals that we have ever witnessed in modern financial history even Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says that she is concerned about causing a boom bust condition in the economy and yet she insists that the Fed is going to continue to gradually raise rates anyway Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is concerned with growth yet out of hand and buss is committed to continuing to raise rates in a gradual manner we don t want to cause a boom bust condition in the economy Yellen told Congress in her semiannual testimony Wednesday while Yellen did not specifically commit to a December rate hike her comments indicated that her views have not changed with her desire for the central bank to continue normalizing policy after years of historically high accommodation I never thought that this stock market bubble would get this large we are way way overdue for a financial correction but right now we are in a party that never seems to and but and it will and when that happens the pain that will be experienced on Wall Street will be unlike anything that we have ever seen before Michael Schneider when this market crashes it s going to happen very very rapidly the Dow peaked at 14,000 before the last stock market crash and now down 24,000 is here the absurdity that we are witnessing in a fine markets is absolutely breathtaking just recently a good friend reminded me that the Dow peaked had just above 14,000 before the last stock market crash and stock prices were definitely overinflated at that time subsequently the Dow crashed below 7,000 before rebounding and now thanks to this week s rally we on the threshold of Dow 24,000 when you look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average you would be tempted to think that we must be in the greatest economic boom in American history but the truth is that our economy has only grown by an average of just 1 point 3 3 percent over the last 10 years every crazy stock market double throughout our history has always ended badly and this one will be no exception and even though the Dow showed a nice gain on Wednesday the Nasdaq got absolutely hammered in fact almost every major tech stock was down bid the following comes from CN and meanwhile big tech stocks which have propelled the market higher all year were tanking the Nasdaq fell more than 1% led by big drops in Google goog Elle tech 30 owner alphabet Amazon AMZN tech 30 Apple AAPL tech 30 Facebook FB tech 30 and Netflix NFLX tech 30 momentum darlings Nvidia NVDA tech 30 and PayPal py PL tech 30 and red-hot gaming stocks Electronic Arts EA tech 30 and Activision Blizzard a TVI tech 30 plunged 2 they have been some of the market s top stocks throughout most of 2017 many believe that the markets are about to turn down in a major way what goes up must eventually come down and at this point even Goldman Sachs is warning that a bear market is coming it has seldom been the case that equities bonds and credit have been similarly expensive at the same time only in the Roaring Twenties and the gold and 50s goldman sachs international strategists including christian willard bliss minh wrote in the note this week all good things must come to an end and there will be a bear market eventually they said as central bank's cut back their quantitative easing push the premiums investors demand to hold longer-dated bonds returns are likely to be lower across assets over the medium term the analyst said a second less likely scenario would involve fast Payne stock and bond valuations would both get hit with the mix depending on whether the trigger involved a negative growth shock or a growth shock alongside and inflation pickup nobody believes NAT is crazy stock market party can go on forever these days the real debate seems to be between those that are convinced that the markets will crash violently and those that believe that a soft landing can be achieved I would definitely be in favor of a soft landing but those that have followed my work for an extended period of time know that I do not think that this will happen and with each passing day more prominent voices in the financial world are coming to the same conclusion here is one recent example Vanguard s chief economist Joe Davis said investors need to be prepared for a significant downturn in the stock market which is now at a 70 percent chance of crashing that chance is significantly higher than it has been over the past 60 years The Economist added it s unreasonable to expect rates of returns which exceeded our own bullish forecasts from 2010 to continue a stock market crash has followed every major stock double in our history and right at this moment we are in the terminal phase of one of the greatest stock market bubbles ever there are so many indicators that are screaming that we are in danger and one of the favorite ones that I like to point to his margin debt the following commentary and chart were recently published by will fricker markets tend to go down much faster than they go up and I have a feeling that when this market crashes it is going to happen very very rapidly the only reason stock prices ever got this high in the first place was due to unprecedented intervention by global central banks they created trillions of dollars out of thinner and plowed those funds directly into the financial markets and of course that was going to inflate asset prices but now global central banks are putting on the brakes simultaneously and this has got to be one of the greatest sell signals that we have ever witnessed in modern financial history even Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says that she is concerned about causing a boom bus condition in the economy and yet she insists napa FET is going to continue to gradually raise rates anyway Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is concerned with growth yet out of hand and bus is committed to continuing to raise rates in a gradual manner we don t want to cause a boom bus condition in the economy Yellen told Congress in her semiannual testimony Wednesday while Yellen did not specifically commit to a December rate hike her comments indicated that her views have not changed with her desire for the central bank to continue normalizing policy after years of historically high accommodation I never thought that this stock market bubble would get this large we are way way overdue for a financial correction but right now we are in a party that never seems to and but and it will and when that happens the pain that will be experienced on Wall Street will be unlike anything that we have ever seen before you did the NOC omic collapse begin today and now begin as stock crash the absurdity that we are witnessing in a financial markets is absolutely breathtaking just recently a good friend reminded me that the Dow peaked had just above 14,000 before the last stock market crash and stock prices were definitely overinflated at that time subsequently the Dow crashed below 7,000 before rebounding and now thanks to this week s rally we on the threshold of Dow 24,000 when you look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average you would be tempted to think that we must be in the greatest economic boom in American history but the truth is that our economy has only grown by an average of just 1 point 3 3 percent over the last 10 years every crazy stock market double throughout our history has always ended badly and this one will be no exception and even though the Dow showed a nice gain on Wednesday the Nasdaq got absolutely hammered in fact almost every major tech stock was down vid the following comes from CNN meanwhile big tech stocks which have propelled the market higher all year were tanking the Nasdaq fell more than 1% led by big drops in Google goog Elle tech 30 owner alphabet Amazon AMZN tech 30 Apple AAPL tech 30 Facebook FB tech 30 and Netflix NFLX tech 30 momentum darlings Nvidia NVDA tech 30 and PayPal PYP Elle tech 30 and red-hot gaming stocks electronic and less likely scenario would involve fast Payne stock and bond valuations would both get hit with the mix depending on whether the trigger involved a negative growth shock or a growth shock alongside and inflation pick up nobody believes that this crazy stock market party can go on forever these days the real debate seems to be between those that are convinced that the markets will crash violently and those that believe that a soft landing can be achieved I would definitely be in favor of a soft landing but those that have followed my work for an extended period of time know that I do not think that this will happen and with each passing day more prominent voices in the financial world are coming to the same conclusion here is one recent example Vanguard s chief economist Joe Davis said investors need to be prepared for a significant downturn in the stock market which is now at a 70 percent chance of crashing that chance is significantly higher than it has been over the past 60 years The Economist added it s unreasonable to expect rates of returns which exceeded our own bullish forecasts from 2010 to continue a stock market crash has followed every major stock double in our history and right at this moment we are in the terminal phase of one of the greatest stock market bubbles ever there are so many indicators that are screaming that we are in danger and one of the favorite ones that I like to point to his margin debt the following commentary and chart were recently published by will fritter this chart shows margin debt red line left scale and the SNP 500 blue line right scale both adjusted for inflation to tune out the effects of the dwindling value of the dollar over the decade stock market leverages the big accelerator on the way up leverage supplies liquidity that has been freshly created by the lender this is arts EA tech 30 and Activision Blizzard a TVI tech 30 plunged too they have been some of the market s top stocks throughout most of 2017 many believe that the markets are about to turn down in a major way what goes up must eventually come down and at this point even Goldman Sachs's warning that a bear market is coming it has seldom been the case that equities bonds and credit have been similarly expensive at the same time only in the roaring 20s and the gold and 50s Goldman Sachs international strategists including Christian Willard bliss Minh wrote in the note this week all good things must come to an end and there will be a bear market eventually they said as central bank's cut back their quantitative easing pushing up the premiums investors demand to hold longer dated bonds returns are likely to be lower across assets over the medium term the analysts said a sec
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