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hey everyone Elon Musk and Tesla held a conference call with investors and you're not going to believe some of the things that Elon Musk just said so let's go through this and let me give you the highlights and then let me give you my opinions on what I think about the comments that Elon Musk just made so let's Jump Right In I want to thank the mly fool for sponsoring this video visit fool.com parev for the 10 best stocks to buy now starting with a question that Tesla got about how many cyber truck deliveries they expect in 2024 Elon Musk shoots back at this response saying I think we'll end up with roughly 250,000 or .25 million cyber trucks a year that's where we'll end up but we're not I don't think we're going to get there next year I think we'll probably reach it sometime in 2025 that's my best guess and if you're familiar familar with Elon Musk speak sometime in 2025 maybe means something like 2027 given his history of being a little bit ambitious in the forecast so this is significantly lower than what investors were expecting and it might be a little surprising that they're only expecting 250,000 units saled of cyber trucks per year now I could show you their production so far and in 20 23 Tesla is forecasting to produce 1.8 million Vehicles so even at its scale 250,000 is still going to be a relatively small portion of Tesla's overall production so investors expecting the cybertruck to lift Tesla stock they're a little bit surprised and shocked at these comments from Elon Musk going on the company was asked about the progress on the 4680 battery cell and according to management the 4680 cell production in t in Texas increased by 40% quarter over quarter that's impressive that's quarter over quarter growth that's not even year-over-year that would be impressive if it was year-over-year growth but this was just from the previous quarter and scrap is down 40% quarter over quarter that's going to decrease the cost of goods sold which is going to increase profitability which is something that Tesla desperately needs right now because they've been lowering prices sold for their cars so they need to lower their cost of goods sold in order to keep their profit margins at the Forefront of the industry so sell costs consistently improved month of the month even within the quarter so that's great news for Tesla stock investors to be sure the next question that the company responded to was an update on capacity expansion plans for the company's factories in Berlin Austin and the opening schedule for the Giga Factory in Mexico and this may have been completely shocking for Tesla stock investors and the answer to this question came out of nowhere and really threw Tesla stock investors for a surprise and if you were following Tesla stock price during this conference call you might have noticed that the stock price fell right around the time these comments were made by Tesla so you're not going to want to miss this let's go through it so first the company saying that Berlin and Austin Factory the current priority is actually to maximize the output from their existing lines and by laser focusing on efficiency improvements for Mexico we're working on infrastructure and Factory design so what they're saying here is for for Berlin and Austin they're just focusing on improving the things that are available right now or optimizing the capacity that's available right now they're not thinking about increasing capacity then Elon Musk jumps on board and this is really when things got pessimistic for Tesla stock investors so Elon Musk saying in Mexico we're laying the groundwork to begin construction and doing all the long lead time long lead items we just want to get a sense for the global economy like before we go Full Tilt in the Mexico Factory I mean I'm worried about the high interest rate environment that we're in the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment and as interest rates rise the proportion of that monthly payment that is interest increases naturally wow that really threw Tesla stock investors for a surprise there Tesla stock investors were under the impression that demand for Tesla's cars are excellent that there is no demand problem that demand is soaring but here what we have is Elon Musk saying that that's not the case that people are cost conscious and when interest rates increase their monthly payment for buying a car increases and so they're less willing to buy a car and so what do you have there you have a car company that experiences the ups and downs of the cyclical economy when things are going well Car Sales will will go well when things are going poorly Car Sales will go poorly that's been the history of car companies in that they're exposed to the cyclicality of the economy it goes up and it goes down and car sales in particular are more exposed to that because they are so connected to the cycle of the economy they're not a necessary purchase they're not something like groceries right where you just have to go and buy it every week regardless of the state of the economy you're not going to say well the economy is bad I'm not going to buy groceries I'm going to starve this week that's not what you're going to do but if the economy is bad and your prospects are poor you're going to say well let me keep my car for another year instead of going out and buying a new car so for that reason that's a big shock that's really PES that's really a downside here and that's arguably one of the reasons that sent Tesla's stock price down down double digits after these comments were made cuz if you notice when the shareholder letter came out for Tesla's Q3 earnings the stock price was flat it was even up like half a percent to a percent and then when these comments started coming out from Elon Musk that's when the stock price started to tank that's when the stock price started to crash and that's why I I attribute most of that stock price decrease to what Elon Musk said and the comments that he made and the pessimistic tone overall that he took so the last thing I'm going to highlight that was extremely surprising coming out from Tesla stock investors or I wouldn't say surprising because I've been talking about this for the whole year and that is the 50% compound annual growth rate now there was a question coming in about the um Tesla's outlook for 2024 and the saleside estimates suggest that 2.3 million Vehicles is what the production Target will be for Tesla in 2024 that would represent 28% growth versus the 2023 guidance remember Tesla is forecasting 1.8 million Vehicles produced in 2023 which I think they'll hit at least 1.8 million they're well on Pace to do that so the question is is this growth rate achievable without any Mass Market launches and 2024 we already saw that the Cyber truck is not going to contribute meaningfully to this figure growing right just 250,000 units and that's sometime after 2025 so probably less than 100,000 units of the Cyber truck in 2024 that's not going to add meaningfully to the total production numbers for Tesla so Elon Musk jumps on board and says I mean the risk of stating the OB obvious it's not possible to have a compound annual growth rate of 50% forever or you will exceed the mass of the known universe right well yes that is obvious you can't grow 50% compound annual growth rate forever but in Tesla's shareholder letter they have a statement there at the end saying that they expect to grow 50% compound annual growth rate for the long term so for the next several years and investors took this statement here as a sort of walk down a walk back of that statement so instead of just removing that statement altoe it could be that Elon Musk is walking it down lowering expectations slightly and then maybe in the next quarter or in the next few quarters Tesla removes that statement altogether and says you know what it doesn't look like we can grow at a 50% compound annual growth rate anymore it looks like we've achieved a certain scale and given the macroeconomy with higher interest rates and the competition with more companies launching their own models I don't think we can grow at a 50% compound annual growth rate anymore which it's my estimate that if Tesla was to remove that statement from the shareholder letter the instant or the moment investors see that the stock price is going to fall by at least 10% maybe closer to 20% given other examples I've seen from other companies that have removed that kind of long-term growth rate target so that's something to look out for and that's certainly something that were surprising or caught some Tesla stock investors off guard if you've been following my channel I've been talking about this all year so you wouldn't have been surprised in that case nevertheless it was a significant statement coming out of Tesla CEO and techno King Elon Musk but before I let you go if you've gained any value from this video please subscribe 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