저자: Kevin · 외국인
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13F 상 대규모 풋옵션은 명목가치 기준이라 실제 헤지 비용은 작으며, 해당 펀드는 AGI 강세 베팅과 사모 투자 노출이 커서 풋이 방향성 베팅이 아니라고 봄. 진짜 리스크는 일본 캐리트레이드 청산 가능성: 일본 GDP 호조로 BOJ 6월 금리인상 확률 77%, 엔/달러 160 근접, 일본 10년물 금리 1997년 이후 최고. 반도체 집중도 과열과 낮은 시장 폭을 지적하며 VIX 급등과 엔 160 돌파가 동시에 나오면 위험하다고 경고. 엔비디아 실적 직전이라 변동성 주의. 현 시점은 공격적 상승 베팅에 불리하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, me Kevin here. Another day and another cup of green tea. Except this time it's in a BB-8 mug. Yeah, I did spend money at Disney this weekend. And yeah, we need the tax write-off. Anyway, let's actually focus on what's going on in the topic today. So there's a lot of murmuring going on about this $13 billion in puts from this Situational Awareness guy.
I'm going to clean this garbage up really quickly and then I'm going to tell you what's actually a much bigger problem in the economy. And well, it's not really economy, it's more like markets. It has to do with the return of the Japanese carry trade. Yeah, I know. You probably didn't have that on your radar today, but that's okay.
I'm just going to give it to you straight. And while my tea cools down, let's go through it. So first, Situational Awareness filed this a 13F for the end of the first quarter and it indicates like $13 billion in notional puts and people are freaking out. People are like, "Oh my gosh, how could literally the the god of AI, Situational Awareness, be filing, you know, a $13 13F with massive dollar volumes in puts?" Puts of two billion on SMH, the semiconductor ETF, one point five seven on Nvidia, one on Oracle, one on Broadcom, almost one on AMD.
Folks, few things to break down here, okay? 13Fs are filed based on notional value, which means it has nothing to do with the actual premium they're paying for these options. Instead, it has to do with the position that theoretically you could protect with these options. So, think about typical hedges are going to cost anywhere between three to 10% in options premiums for that underlying amount.
So when you see a billion dollars in AMD put, you should really be thinking like 80 to I mean, honestly, it could be down as low as 30, maybe 30 to 100 million dollars worth of actual premiums as a hedge. Their brochure, which is sort of their investor brochure, I mean that's actually what this is called if you go to the top.
It's latest brochure, right? This is what they call it for a hedge fund. But it actually indicates that they hedge. And this makes sense because they hold a lot of private investments in artificial intelligence anyway and situational awareness. This is a company led by a Leopold Aschenbrenner and Carl Schulman.
These are like literally your biggest AGI bulls ever, which like in fairness, they've done exceptionally well on betting that there would be a massive dash for hardware, infrastructure, and an energy buildout because they believe AGI is where we're going. I don't think we're going there. Okay, so like just to compare my opinion to theirs, you know, my take is we get a nice S curve of wow, we went from no chatbots to everybody has a custom artificial intelligence encyclopedia in their pockets.
That's really what chatbots are. They're really good encyclopedias, but they're not artificial general intelligence. And yeah, we're seeing fewer hallucinations, right? So if you're still jaded by AI, I do think you should give it a shot again. You know, use Gemini as your daily driver. Use Claude as I call it Dr.
Claude. Or or if you know, you're looking for uh another daily driver compared to Gemini. Or in my opinion, use ChatGPT for text-based. So like, you know, reviewing contracts. Those are just some things that, you know, little strategies that are but but that's super basic stuff. Let's focus on the topic of the video.
It doesn't make sense for some of these hyper AGI bulls to go naked on puts here. These folks have massive exposure to companies like SanDisk, uh which has absolutely been crushing it, or Coreweave, your infrastructure build out, Bloom Energy, your gas turbine build out. Like, these kind of these guys are so deep on longs to artificial intelligence that these, you know, put premiums that they've spent are just nominal hedges that are probably betting on some form of, you know, multiple compression or just protection against geopolitical panic because, again, this 13F is based on last quarter's information.
This is a filing that is literally telling you what they held as of March 31st. And frankly, they probably got absolutely reamed if they kept those puts on premiums because guess what happened once we got the ceasefire and Meet Kevin started saying we're about to have a hardware bull cycle. Exactly what ended up happening.
Although, there are signs that we've now, you know, started to top out. We've made warnings about the lack of breadth in the market. I'm not going to rehash that. We've also started seeing this in the course member live stream. I'm going to give this a little bit of a heads-up, but we've been talking about this.
Uh that if you jump in over to Intel, for example, you'll have seen that over the past uh few traders few trading days, Intel's actually been down. Look at this. We're at four to five days of uh down days on uh Intel over here. Let's unaverage this. Had a little bit of a breather right there. Uh but we're seeing the same thing on San Disk.
We're seeing the same thing on Applied Materials. We've talked about this regularly after earnings. Uh and so, we're seeing a little bit of topping out. And why could this be? Well, some of it could have to do with the Japanese carry trade. We're going to touch on this. Just quick clarification though, just to drive the point home, the situational awareness company, the hedge fund, is based on a series of essays that really their founder wrote that artificial general intelligence is imminent.
That would imply that you get this exponential build out of power and compute. This explains their exposure to Riot, Iren, Cleanspark, Hive. These are Bitcoin mining companies or crypto mining facilities that have access to guess what? Power. Remember, that's what a lot of these uh data center plays actually used to be.
They used to be miners that then moved to the next big thing, which was data centers, cuz they already had the data center infrastructure. And they just and they had the power commitments and the infrastructure for that power. It is actually relatively easy to go borrow money, buy some Nvidia chips, and swap out some of the hardware, maybe from A6 or whatever you're running, to some of the latest and greatest.
Or just keep operating your latest GPUs, and there you go, you got a data center, you just switch over to where the money is. It's actually a smart pivot. So, you got to give them credit. Uh and it makes sense that these folks who think that AGI is coming, which implies an exponential build out. I believe we're on an S curve, which means we're going to overbuild assuming an exponential build out, right?
The market assumes this is going to go on forever. We're going to build out power infrastructure, and we'll actually probably have cheaper power than ever before in 5 to 7 years time. We'll have cheaper compute than ever before in 5 to 7 years. Cheaper tokens. Everything will be cheaper. Deflation in AI is coming because we're going to overbuild uh assuming we don't get to AGI.
Like, if I'm right and tokens in their capabilities cap out, which I think will happen, we will overbuild because we have people like this who are plowing money into AGI's imminent. So, point is, these people are mega bulls, and they are taking very small hedges relative to their entire portfolio. Mind you, we don't even know what their entire portfolio is because of all the private exposure that they likely have.
Private exposure is huge, by the way. You know, my venture capital fund, we've got a lot of exposure now to SpaceX because that investment has skyrocketed. We've got a lot of exposure to robotics because that investment has skyrocketed as well. We've done really well on this. But, if I was to, let's say, have a put on, you know, the AI hardware side for this fund, and at the same time we're making bank on all these private investments, we could potentially have a public disclosure that's like the only thing we hold are puts.
But, you don't actually see the reveal of all of the private holdings because after all they are private. That's what you get in a venture capital fund. It's a private fund, right? My point of that is and that fund isn't fundraising, so it's not like I'm trying to pitch you. I'm just trying to say, as an example, even if I had puts on semis right now on a fund and then we publicly reported those puts, you would only see the puts.
You would see it as this notional exposure rather than the premiums actually paid, which would be between 3 and 10% likely. I mean, maybe after 20%, right? If I go buy a 90-day put right now at the money I'm paying 12 18% on SanDisk. But, why am I going to do that? Usually, when you're buying a put, you're going to go out of the money because you're hedging for that, you know, not the 5% volatility.
You're hedging for the 30% fall off a cliff. So, you're going to go with, you know, a 5% exposure because you're going to go out of the money on these puts. Anyway, that's all getting too complicated, but my point is this, "Oh my gosh, 8.5 billion dollars in puts." You literally have two levels of Twitter finance.
You have the one level of Twitter finance where people like, and they're totally blind to the fact that that was a March 31st disclosure. And then the second thing you have is people are totally blind to the fact that these people are super long AGI. So, this 13F means nothing. If anything, they probably made a lot of money on their underlying holdings, even if some of their premiums, even if they held those and their premiums got hosed over there, which I don't think they're blind.
Like they've rejiggered with certainty. But what matters a lot more in my opinion is the Bank of Japan. See, Japanese the Japanese economy is growing faster than expected now and it's creating problems. See look, Bloomberg yesterday, Japan's faster economic growth offers offers window for Bank of Japan rate hike.
Real GDP expanded at 2.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter. That topped estimates for 1.7% and their previously downward revised pace of 0.8% uh in the prior quarter was blown out of the water. So, here's a little pretty chart to make this a little bit more clear. You were in a hole in Q3, you were at 0.8% in Q4, and you skyrocket over here, okay?
Simple. Now, why does that matter? Because futures markets right now are pricing in a 77% chance of a Bank of Japan hike in less than 30 days, on June 16th. This comes right after a 6-3 hawkish hold on April 28th. What does all that mean? The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is skyrocketing. It's up to like 2.8% and you're seeing that same sort of skyrocketing right here on the US 10-year, which is now at 4.66 and the 10-2 yield curve is starting to rise again.
This is all consistent with higher for longer. The problem is the Japanese 10-year yield is now at its highest level since May of 1997. And when you type into Google, USD to JPY, it's the easiest way to do it, you're at very dangerously close to that 160 level. That 160 level tanked over here on the hawkish hold.
A lot of people think because the Bank of Japan actually intervened and manipulated this market down. But the higher this chart goes, the more you are setting up to a Japanese carry trade unwind potential, much like what we saw in August of 2024. In fact, in August of 2024, we believe that there were potentially $500 billion of peak Japanese carry trade volumes, according to UBS.
Only $200 billion of that, in other words, 2/5 of that, were left, which means now we're left with this compromised 3/5. Okay, sorry. We're left with 3/5 still to be unwound. JPMorgan thinks that they only unwound maybe about 50%. So, that'd be a little bit of a better unwinding than the UBS estimate, but the point is there's still work to unwind.
And so, the red flag is that if we break 160 on the Japanese yen, which we're about to do, and at the same time we get a VIX spike, because maybe some poopy-doopy happens with Nvidia, and Nvidia tends to beat, like they're likely to beat across the board tomorrow, but it doesn't mean their stock will go up.
Nvidia has this weird history of going down after giving like beats and raises, which is pretty remarkable. But, the point is this is what you need to watch for. Okay, this is like alpha level stuff that we talk about in the Meet Kevin membership. Remember, you can get lifetime access to that over at meetkevin.com.
Got the Memorial Day sale is live. So, you can use that you pay once to get lifetime access forever, and then and then the rumor has it you stop hearing the pitches in the public videos once you're a member. It's crazy. And then, you get all of our, you know, top 13 stocks to buy for the next 10 years, the short-term time frame game plans, the medium-term trades, short-term trades, all of it.
But, here's what you need to pay attention to. If the volatility index spikes to 25 again, or even 30, like we get another spike like this from early March, and the JPY breaks 160, and yields are at record highs. At the same time as what we've been warning in prior videos, record concentration in hardware stocks and low breadth.
I mean, consider, Nvidia alone makes up 7 to 8% of the S&P 500. Highest single stock concentration in index history. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 make up 41% of the S&P 500. That's insane. Back in the dot-com bubble, highest of the top 10 was 23%. The concentration right now is insane. The top five stocks in the Nasdaq 100 make up 55% of the index.
It's insane. Like these indexes, indices, are not broad market indices anymore. They are concentrated bets on artificial intelligence and AGI at this point. Which is insane. This is why I say in order for the Qs to really get to 725, you must must must get a broadening. You need software to start rallying.
ServiceNow is actually slightly green again today. You need software to start taking over the torch. If software doesn't pick up the torch, the torch falls on the ground and burns out, and then you're going to have a little oopsie-doopsies as we get some of this concentration out of the market. But again, the big risk you have to watch for is JPY breaking 160, and the VIX going up at the same time, which maybe could happen after Nvidia.
Hopefully not. Hopefully we just get chill. But right now you're on the eve of Nvidia earnings, and everybody's going to be paying attention to what happens with Nvidia. Now, the other thing to understand is that the reason we're expecting hikes in Japan is because core inflation is being revised up in Japan.
Guess why? Oh, because of Donald Trump's damn energy shock with the Iran war. Now, even though most surveys indicate that the Iran war is extremely unpopular, Donald Trump believes that the surveys are wrong and that war in everyone is actually very popular. We have to stop them from getting a nuclear weapon, and as a result, we will delay and defer negotiations on nuclear weapons with Iran, which that makes literally no sense, but that's exactly what's happening.
See, Iran has a history of delay and defer. Dude, is this mug sick? Look at this. I This is actually really cool. Like, I get excited to drink from it cuz it's so freaking cool. Yeah, I I A lot of people dump on Disney, but I'm I'm a I'm a Disney fan. But, understand it delay and defer is the strategy of Iran.
I personally believe this, and I think there's a one in eight chance that Iran is building a nuclear weapon right now. That they have the highly enriched uranium at Pick X Mountain. You should look it up if you haven't before. And it's just a matter of time before they wake up one morning, "Oh, we have it." It It It's It's kind of like It's kind of like the hostage taker, you know?
If he doesn't have a bomb or a weapon, you just shoot his butt. But, but Iran is kind of like you don't know what's in the box. Is the cat alive? Is the cat dead? You don't know. You don't know I got a gun. You don't know I got a knife. All of a sudden, the Iranians sound Mexican. I hope there is no offense to any of this, right?
But, but you don't know. And so, one day they're going to go, "Aha, we have the bomb." And that's a problem. I think there's a one in eight reality of that. So, what does that give you? A 12 or 13% chance that that happens, you know? Uh But anyway, [clears throat] delay and defer is the whole premise of Iran.
The more they can delay, the more they can potentially build. They also realize that Donald Trump is on a 4-year, you know, election cycle time frame. He's going to lose a lot of power here likely in midterms. Uh and then when it comes to uh well, you know, with the reelection cycle, you know, Iran might think, "Hey, maybe we'll get like uh uh, you know, an Obama kind of character who's going to negotiate a deal with us and allow us to do nukes again in 10 years or whatever, right?
Who knows? I'm not saying Obama allowed that, right? The Obama deal was better than what we have now. And that's not trying to say you know, we love Obama. Okay, I'm not trying to pull political sides. I'm just saying, at least we had weapons inspectors and at least we were able to track the highly enriched uranium, okay?
No no plan or deal is perfect. But now what we have is even worse. But good news, Donald Trump held a press conference this morning. He's providing lunch to all the reporters, maybe because they spent a lot of time reporting on his 39 trades, which is like one trade every 7 minutes at the market is open while he's, you know, in office in the first quarter, which is very very odd.
Of course, Eric Trump is like, "Well, this is this is this is all managed by third-party devices." Right. Okay. So, the other insiders in the White House are doing it all for you. Yes, that's They don't have inside information at all. Of course not. [gasps] It's all a joke. It's all a freaking joke.
Anyway, I don't really know where I was going with that. But the whole premise here is that there are things we have to worry about. A Vic shock post Nvidia, we're topping out on hardware, we're massively concentrated, the Japanese carry trade is coming back, yields are rising again, the 10-2 is rising again.
This isn't the best market for going, "Yo, we're going to go YOLO up here." We were in a great place at the beginning of April for that because cash availability was massive. Now the opposite is true. So, buckle up, be careful, make sure you join us in the Alpha report to get more insights on what the HE double hockey sticks is going on.
Join us at meetkevin.com. Thank you so much for being here. I got to get to work. We'll see you all soon. Goodbye and good luck. Why not advertise .
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