Prepare for WEDNESDAY | The NEXT WARNING.

요약 보기

엔비디아 실적(수요일)을 앞두고 SpaceX IPO 자금이 엔비디아 주문으로 연결될 수 있다는 가설을 제시. 모건스탠리 S&P500 목표 8,300(약 13% 상승) 소개하며 이란 리스크는 완화 전제로 보고, 단기 변동성 확대 가능성과 AI 하드웨어 피로 신호에 대비해 트레일링 스탑 권고. 장기로는 대출·소프트웨어 등 기회를 언급하고 Adobe·ServiceNow·Salesforce는 가격결정력 미입증으로 회의적.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Well, get in your Batmobile because boy, oh boy, we've got Nvidia earnings this week and I have a little suspicion of what could potentially really propel Nvidia earnings. We're going to talk about that, but we're also going to go through Morgan Stanley's forecast for not just the S&P 500 with a base case return of 13.3%.

02. I'll also show you their bare and bull cases, but I want you to see what they are overweight in and what they're equal weighted as well as sort of where they think this market moves, whether it's based on macro or what else. Let's break it all down. Let's give it to you straight. Welcome back. I'm Meet Kevin and let's get right into it.

03. Okay, first things first, let's look at the Morgan Stanley forecast. By the way, this morning in the course member live stream, we went through the Vertiv uh Vertu, I should say, not Vertiv, Vertu, the market maker earnings. Wow, those are some crazy freaking numbers. Questions remain as to whether or not that kind of growth will continue, but uh talk about fat, fat margin.

04. Let me just show you what pricing power looks like really quick as as a sneak peek, okay? Look at this for the last quarter, okay? Their revenue is up 30.6%. Their actual costs of goods sold are only up 3.5. Now, you have to do some math to actually get to these numbers here to choose which numbers to divide by, but anyway, insane.

05. This is not a pitch for this company, Vertu. This is just a way of saying when you see top line exploding and the components not exploding in terms of costs, it's really bullish and I think Nvidia is probably about to give us something like that. Nvidia historically has sort of a mixed reaction after earnings, up or down, but the SpaceX IPO might be able to do something special for the Nvidia earnings report coming out on Wednesday and I think that can actually help contribute to this S&P 500 base case target of 8,300.

06. That represents about 13.3% upside. Uh and uh this is their forecast over the next 12 months. So, going all the way out to Q2 2027, they do see the worst case in their vision downside is a 19% decline down to about 5,900 with the bull case taking us all the way up 28% to 9,400. So, what can help accelerate this?

07. In my opinion, the SpaceX IPO now slated for June 12th is going to raise 80 to 100 billion dollars for basically Elon. Elon has over 70% control at SpaceX, which means he dictates what happens with that money. And why that's so important is because it means that Elon could literally pick up the phone and go, "Jensen, help me pump this IPO.

08. If it goes well, I got a 30 billion-dollar check with your name on it." That's all it would take for Jensen to then on Wednesday's earnings call to say, "Hey, we're really excited about Q2. In fact, we're increasing some of our forecasts for the entire year because we think we're going to get a really big order in Q2.

09. Oh, gee, how I wonder who that could be." But, the point is Nvidia is so critical for markets and markets get so nervous when it comes to Nvidia earnings because people are worried that Nvidia's forecast out 12 months keeps growing and growing and growing. And of course, the pace of growth has slowed, but the actual numerical growth has been fantastic.

10. Once that slows, everybody knows the bottom's falling out of the market. But, SpaceX can actually enable Nvidia this cycle, which Nvidia's valuation is actually pretty cheap. Let's go look at their valuation right now. Calculating in forward growth, obviously that valuation collapses as soon as forward growth looks like it's turning.

11. So you have to always be careful of those U-turns. But so far, very few signs that we're actually seeing those U-turns. It's funny. I was just searching in the the course member page. I don't know why I have Nike filtered here. I think we were talking about somebody asked about the course member live stream.

12. What's crazy is last time we looked at Nike, I actually wrote, "This is even more depressing than last time." I wrote this on December 19th and we have, you know, some analysis over here on the sheets that we did and it keeps going. But anyway, let me pull up Nvidia over here. Mind you, since I wrote that on Nike, Nike's down like another 33%, which is insane.

13. So AMD's sitting at about a 1.53 PEG right now. Nvidia's only at a two PEG. So Nvidia still has some decent upside. 2.67 divided by two, I'm sitting at about 33.5% upside. So 1335 * 200 current price. 267 honestly. I I feel like just doing quick math right here, that's still on the low side. If we could get a really nice push from Nvidia because of SpaceX, I think it could justify breaking through 300.

14. But we could get granular on Nvidia when the earnings come out. Let's focus for a moment on this Morgan Stanley piece. Remember, if you want that sort of analysis we do every single day, join us in the course member live streams. You pay once o take a look at this. Here we go. Right here. So de-escalation of tensions with the Middle East are their base case scenario.

15. So this is what I call the small taco or or the small daily taco. This morning you might have seen that there's talk about the United States offering Iran oil sanctions waivers. What's really interesting here is that's basically a way of saying, "Hey, we're not getting a deal, but we're going to keep loosening our sort of stranglehold on Iran, and we're going to try to give them some lifeline so that they don't go totally bankrupt so we can keep negotiating with them." At the same time, senior Iranian officials have just stated that, quote, "The US has shown some flexibility in ongoing discussions including over limits to Iran's nuclear work." Interesting.

16. So, Iran is now saying that the United States is providing flexibility regarding nuclear work, which to me sounds like a small dose of taco, and it's not even Tuesday. Washington has so far only agreed to unfreeze 25% of Iran's funds on a phased timetable. By the way, that is what we addressed yesterday, and we said, "Hey, expect more volatility over the coming days and weeks.

17. Expect more violent ups and downs. This is not super unusual. And expect these negotiations negotiations to drag on with Iran." When we were talking about this yesterday at Disneyland, by the way, we did a VIP tour at Disneyland. Highly encourage you do a VIP tour. We did one day VIP tour, one day not.

18. Sorry for this tangent. I'm going to be really fast about it. Uh the day that we did not do the VIP tour, I think we got like four, if that, maybe three rides in by using the FastPass. And the day you do the VIP tour, you get like 25 rides in because you you just go like two or three times on some of the rides cuz you're just constantly cycling back in.

19. There's no like two-hour wait for the lightning lane, you know, cuz you have to like schedule it, and then you can't schedule another one. You have to be within the park. It's a disaster. Worth the money if you're going to go. It's pricey, but you get a whole group of 10 in there. I sound like a sponsor for Disney.

20. I'm I swear I'm not. I don't own Disney stock, and I'm not a sponsor for Disney. I just like when you divide the costs out per person on a big group, it's kind of worth it. But anyway, what's really interesting uh about just this this volatility call is, I think we're going to keep getting supported by more and more uh tacos.

21. So, uh let's think about that for a moment. Morgan Stanley seems to be picking up on this as well. Morgan Stanley's indicating that Iran and macro probably isn't really going to add a lot to what the stock market does. In fact, they think that the one big beautiful bill basically offsets the pain of higher oil prices.

22. So, the stimulus that came from the one big beautiful bill act offset by oil prices. Instead, you just keep getting a strong AI capex result. With economists expecting the unemployment rate to remain around the current level about 4.3% in 2026. Speaking of economists, the magazine The Economist actually had a piece talking about prepare for the AI jobs apocalypse.

23. And they were actually saying, if I remember this correctly, they actually had a whole piece on how economists don't actually think that technological innovations kill jobs. Instead, what ends up happening is that it's a net killing of jobs. You do kill some jobs, but you make other people richer, especially corporations.

24. Remember, that's my big bet that corporations make the money from AI. People kind of initially suffer that. So, some people get laid off, but because some people get richer because of AI, that money gets to get turned into more spending on goods and services, which in turn creates more jobs. For example, let's theorize.

25. Palantir's AI absolutely kills it and dominates. And Palantir investors get really, really rich, and then they all take VIP tours at Disney, which only about half of 1% at Disney uh of, you know, visitor visitation on a daily basis is ever made up of. So, like if you're on a VIP tour at Disney, you're in the top half of 1% of the guests that are there.

26. You're talking like 250 people maybe on a tour out of like 50,000 people in the park at a time. Kind of crazy. But, it relates to that Economist article because that Economist article has a point. As yes, there are some people who lose their jobs, there are other people who end up making more money.

27. And what do they spend money on? What do advanced economies spend money on? We don't spend money on making a better factory like China. We don't spend money on buying a new desk for our office. We spend the extra on services. Travel, entertainment, hospitality. Anyway. All right. So, all that around or or out of the way, let's keep going here.

28. So, take a look at this. For US equities, macro takes a back seat in our base case scenario. Earnings resiliency, despite geopolitical risk, is the bedrock of our constructive view. We note that Q1 EPS surprise for the S&P 500 is 6%, the strongest it has been in 4 years. In other words, again, companies with AI are making more money than ever before.

29. I personally think even the Virtu, which is sort of a play on Aristotle's virtue, uh market-making company, you know, I think a lot of their money is probably in part not just being driven by volatility, but are also artificial intelligence. I mean, their costs are up 3%, but their revenue is up 30%.

30. They're doing more rev with the same amount of people. Again, I I I I know volatility helped here, but the point is, you know, people look at these market makers like Citadel and Jane Street or even the big banks, and they're like, "Oh my gosh, these companies make so much money off of trading." They're really making money off of is market making.

31. Like 80% of money at Virtu comes from market making, 19 something percent comes from execution like fulfilling the trade because somebody picked up the phone and said, "Hey, I need to sell this. Can you guys make it happen?" And they take their commission. It's pretty much the same at banks. It's really the more you dive in the market and we talk about this a lot in the course member live streams.

32. We're talking about this this morning. We were looking at options like, "Hey, like this is why you want to pay attention to these options and not these options." It's because the more you know about the financial plumbing of how markets work, the more you're like, "All right, I know where the pit falls are." You know?

33. Anyway. Uh so uh EPS surprises strongest in the last 4 years. That's great. Uh then they've got a media forecast of 8,300 on the S&P 500. Fine. They do mention that they still see private credit as mostly idiosyncratic. I'm a little concerned that that DOJ investigation that we heard about. I don't know if you watched my video on it this weekend, but the DOJ is investigating uh some private credit funds.

34. I think it's the Blackstones or Blackrock's private credit fund. It's probably Blackrocks. But anyway, any kind of result that's bad or negative out of this could help constrain lending or you know, hurt lending, which would be bad. Once you constrain lending, that's when you have broader market implications.

35. People need debt. Companies need debt. This This economy is fueled by debt. So as soon as you tighten the debt levers, that's really when you start having problems. This is why they say like, "Yeah, there're going to be winners and losers in private credit, but not a genuine like uh like system-wide threat." They argue.

36. Uh that's why I wrote falling credit availability would be the risk across the board, which we're not really seeing it here. So if you over here geopolitical risk remains a chief risk, I honestly disagree that it's a chief risk. I I I kind of think that we're just getting daily taco after taco after taco because Donald Trump is trying to pump pump pump pump the market.

37. And I do think that consumers are able at the moment to absorb these higher oil prices. Everybody's complaining about it, but so far the economy is able to absorb it. And as long as this AI and SpaceX spending keeps going, I don't think we flip to risk off. Now, they say that in scenario number three, if we do get energy prices to spike even more dramatically, like we're talking 150 per barrel oil, that could start being problematic.

38. It could be enough to push the global economy into a slowdown that drives down risk assets. While the asset class preference in this environment would be clear, recession playbook, cash, bonds over equities rules the day. The unprecedented nature of the current oil supply disruption also means the speed at which markets flip to risk off is a question mark.

39. In other words, things could go dirty really quickly if oil ends up skyrocketing too high, too fast. That's the biggest risk. But we already know that. We've known that for a while. And oil sitting around 109, yeah, it's much higher than where we were at the beginning of the year. And I'm not trying to downplay the weight of that, but I actually agree with them that it sort of offsets the one big beautiful bill stimulus.

40. These extra tax returns are just going into gas. So, consumers are going to keep spending until they lose their jobs. Consumers don't lose their jobs until lending gets constrained and businesses lay people off. But lending doesn't really get constrained unless the AI rolls over, the AI. Uh so so far, I think there's good reason to still be bullish on the broader economy, uh even as we expect and anticipate a little bit more volatility on a day-to-day basis on markets.

41. I'm personally really trying to watch what's happening with Cerebrus. That's been my target today. Uh watching Cerebrus, the reason this is so important, in my opinion, uh is because it gives you the most recent IPO before the SpaceX IPO. And even though it's down 10% on Friday, it's up 6% again today.

42. So, for me, this is a watcher. The downtrend is pretty clear here. I think it's a giant pump and dump. I don't agree with this stock. I think its fundamentals are broken. It's going to go to negative EPS. There are real risks here. Uh and the problem is if Cerebra starts tanking and the market reacts poorly to Nvidia's forecast, which I think will be pop propped up, that's going to lead to some of that that enthusiasm coming out of hardware stocks, which is exactly what Citibank and Goldman warned about this weekend.

43. That we're starting to see signs that we're kind of getting exhausted on the AI hardware play. So, you can be bullish the economy, but you could also be cautious. Remember Applied Materials. Applied Materials skyrocketing up. Applied Material earnings come out and it's been red red red. It's down another 4% today.

44. Red red red after those earnings. So, the sign that there is some exhaustion. You want to be a little cautious, have some trailing stops if you're short-term trading. And if you're long-term investing, still plenty of opportunities, whether they're in lending stocks, whether they're in software stocks, uh or or frankly, I think there are other opportunities as well.

45. I mean, whether uh pharmaceuticals are quite interesting. I know where Generon just had a big oopsie-doopsies on a trial. Some people think there could be an opportunity there. We're starting to do some more fundamental analysis on uh pharmaceutical stocks in the course live. Um you don't want Rheinmetall, the uh uh defense contractor in in Germany, uh and and their decline has been somewhat shocking.

46. A lot of opportunities there. Uh and then obviously also just your your regular sort of business-to-business SaaS opportunities. Outside I'm not the biggest Some of you have commented like, "Oh, Kevin, what? Like Adobe and ServiceNow?" Those are actually my least favorite. On my Alpha report, I have a little red flag warning that those are my least favorite.

47. I'll give you a little spoil on why they're my least favorite. I really shouldn't do this. I should keep this course members. But I wrote that my least where is service now? I set this down for a moment. Here it is. I call it the dirty software bucket. And I call it the dirty software bucket because service now Adobe and Salesforce have not yet proven to Kevin that they actually have pricing power versus just raising prices on existing customers.

48. Like I got to see that broadening base, right? Anyway, my take. Hopefully some of this is useful and insightful. I love you all no matter what happens out there. Keep coming back for more. Hope you do. Remember to get the Meet Kevin app because if you do not get notifications from YouTube, just turn off notifications for YouTube.

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50. But I think it's interesting. It's that that you can customize notifications and I think it's useful. So consider downloading Meet Kevin app. We'll see you over there. .