저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시티·골드만 경고를 인용하며 롱엔드 금리 상승과 달러 강세를 리스크로 제시. 반도체 하드웨어 랠리 후 소프트웨어 순환매를 예상하며 SpaceX IPO가 하드웨어 지출을 자극할 것으로 봄. 기술주 익스포저는 역대 최고 수준이며 자사주 매입 감소가 시장 지지력을 약화시킬 수 있다고 경고. 시장 변동성 확대를 예상하나 강세장 기조는 유지. Cerebras IPO 하락 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, good morning. Be Kevin here. Citibank and Goldman Sachs have a couple of warnings that are going to be worth paying attention to, obviously. I'm going to give you a breakdown of these warnings and I'll give you my opinion on what it actually means and what it matter or what matters here and what doesn't.
So, let's get started. The first thing that I find that's very interesting and actually think this is an accurate concern to pay attention to is that as the long end weakness gathers steam, seemingly driven by a reconsideration of inflation risks amidst sticky data and a stalemate on the US-Iran front, the USD is rallying as a result.
Okay, something to note. The USD is pretty much flat year-over-year, so I wouldn't necessarily call it rallying, but it's coming up off of lower levels. What that typically means is when we have a strong dollar, when we have companies that are selling goods and services outside of the United States, when they bring those back for earnings, sometimes you can see that FX impact and companies will actually miss on earnings because of that.
So, you know, company like Apple sells a ton of product outside of the United States. So, sometimes that stronger dollar can actually hurt, which is one of the reasons we've historically seen Donald Trump prefer a weaker dollar because it incentivizes international companies buying from US companies.
Something to pay attention to. It's sort of an interesting note. Uh but there are also some technical warnings here. They talk about Applied Materials had a significant earnings beat, but it did not drive a strong post-market rally. And this is a telling sign that indicates signs of quote tech fatigue are emerging, end quote.
Sentiment indicators are flashing red with overbought conditions flashing as well as our sales trader warning that we should officially trigger the oversold trigger. Just sounds like they're saying the same thing over and over again. Uh and if we do, then we could see a painful rotation. And this was an interesting line, they said software could be due a squeeze.
I don't I don't write like that. They do. Software could be due a squeeze. But it's interesting, and I'm not pointing that out because, you know, personally I've been saying, "Hey, beginning of April, hardware rally. We called it up front. Next is the software rally." Uh so, I kind of hope I'm right because I want to be right on that.
Obviously, I'll I'll take egg on my face when I'm wrong that a software rally is coming. But I didn't purposely pick this out because of that. I just think it's interesting that they're essentially saying, which is a tool for you to look at, look at what happened with Applied Materials. Could that be a little bit of a leading indicator that maybe tech is kind of at that like extreme level now, where we might be due for consolidation?
It's also worth noting that uh the uh Cerebras IPO this week, I think is really worth watching because I think you had a lot of YOLO going and FOMO going into that IPO. And it's basically, since it was priced at IPO, it's basically been straight down. And I wouldn't be surprised if that keeps going down, especially since, remember, watch my Cerebras IPO video, I break this whole thing down, but the only reason they're GAAP profitable is because of a change in the valuation of warrants.
Otherwise, this is a money-losing company. So, they're literally going to go from, "Wow, we're making all this money" to, "Oh, wow, we're losing all this money." So, that could create some problems uh for that stock and then, of course, you know, the broader tech sector. Now, my my thesis has been that the SpaceX IPO is really going to drive hardware spending because SpaceX is going to raise $80 billion.
Honestly, they'll probably raise like $100 billion. It'll be like 2x the Saudi Aramco IPO, which Elon Musk has this obsession with comparing himself with Saudi Aramco for some reason. But uh what we're seeing is that now BlackRock is talking about investing billions of dollars into the SpaceX IPO. Whether they're trying to secure an allocation right before the IPO or at IPO is not entirely clear.
Probably trying to get it right before. But I think what's happening is you have a lot of institutions that are like, "All right, we're pretty much certain this puppy is going to get included in the indices. So, we're either going to get our exposure later or we're going to get our exposure up front." I'm a little worried that, you know, things are getting a little overheated with the SpaceX IPO, but hey, you know, I could see the enthusiasm.
And I will say, there is a massive, massive shortage for actual hard data centers right now, which, interestingly, SpaceX might be able to turn XAI into a profitable data center leasing company, essentially, given that massive deal they just struck with Anthropic, which is brilliant, absolutely brilliant strategy, and I think that was smart because really what we want is to see SpaceX succeed because it's really going to prop up the whole market, props up hardware market, and that money, I think, eventually transitions to the other sectors, the finance stocks that are lagging, the software stocks that are lagging, and so on.
Okay, so that The SpaceX IPO, by the way, was also set for I think it's the second week of uh next week uh sorry, of next month, which will be quite interesting. So, we're about a month away from that SpaceX IPO. Let's get back to some of these notes, though. A test of liberation day highs on the 10s and 30s.
So, treasury yields, now the 30-year breaking, obviously, uh 5% and uh the uh two or the 10-year yields breaking over about 4.6, you know, that 4.57 to 4.6 level. They say this could, quote, challenge the equity market rally. So, obviously, something else to pay attention to as we're dealing with more information coming out that basically nothing happened out of the China trade deal or that the China visit.
Which, I hate to say it, you know, I I didn't want to like sound pessimistic and I said this last week. I'm like, people say, "Kevin, what do you think's going to happen with this China deal?" I go, "Honestly, nothing. This China trip is going to happen and nothing's going to come of it." Because I personally think Xi Jinping has more leverage over the United States right now because the United States has kind of gotten itself into a quagmire with Iran.
This morning, we heard that the United States demanded five things from Iran. "Give up uranium, no concessions on helping them rebuild, open the Strait of Hormuz, you know, not support the Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, and the United States would only be willing to unfreeze let's say less than 1/4 of Iranian assets seized." Which is kind of exactly what Iran's like, "F you.
Like, what are you giving us? If you're not going to give us our seized assets back, and we have to give up our uranium, and you're not going to help us rebuild, which are essentially clear conditions that they've had from day one." Of course, we question how much bargaining power they have, which all comes down into the Strait of Hormuz, so clearly they have some, especially now that there's talk that Iran is going to deploy deep-sea subs in the Strait of Hormuz to make it even harder.
We're not getting anywhere here. I mean, just this morning we had a UAE nuclear power plant hit by a drone. Now, fortunately, the nuclear facility wasn't hit. It was actually an electrical generator that was hit, and there were no injuries reported in associated with this attack. But, it just shows you that there's a frustrating lack of progress with Iran.
China kind of threw its hands up. We got fewer Boeing orders than we were hoping. We didn't really get any kind of like major announcement out of Oh, maybe we'll get FSD approval. Oh, we'll get like an Nvidia chip sale. Given that we haven't sold a single H200 to China, maybe we'll actually make some progress.
Nothing. We got like a like a downsized Boeing deal that tanked Boeing stock. So, very little progress in China, and I think it was really because Winnie the Pooh, I mean, Xi Jinping thinks he's got the cards. In fact, Donald Trump has sanctions on Iranian tankers going to China that Chinese shipping companies that are extracting that oil are supposed to pay.
And they let some of these ships through the Strait of Hormuz blockade to go to China and they're supposed to pay their tariffs. And Xi Jinping literally told those Chinese companies do not pay the tariffs. And Donald Trump's like, "Well, you know, we're going to make a decision in the next coming days.
We'll probably just undo that extra tariff." So, in other words, we're going to paper hand on that as well. It's crazy. So, let's go to the Goldman piece. The Goldman piece, which is interesting as well, short note over here. So, that was the city piece, some Iran commentary. The Goldman piece was the following.
The Oh, yeah, here was a little note. Anthropic had agreed to 30 bill Oh, that's okay. This is new note here. Anthropic just raised money at a $900 billion valuation. They raised $30 billion, which that's hard cold hard cash that they could use to pay for data centers at SpaceX, making that xAI division profitable, helps boost the SpaceX IPO, pumps that SpaceX IPO even more, which creates more of a wealth effect for this whole software AI cycle.
It's all going to go to crap one day in the future, we know, but we're just trying to watch for the early warning signs. RaboBank had a really good piece on this where they're breaking down that a lot of chip components like whether they're GPUs, some even server racks, are booked out 26 to 52 weeks.
So, you can't get some of the water cooling components that you need for actually placing data centers in service for 26 to 52 weeks because a lot of stuff is booked out. So, really, if we want to see that turning point in data centers and sort of the cyclical spend of this next AI bubble or whatever you want to call it.
We can look at the next 12 months out earnings and the forecast, which so far they're still holding up. So, so far all is still good. Obviously, you know, there's some reason to be nervous. Um watch that Cerebras IPO. I think it's a little bit of a uh testing sort of warning ground for uh SpaceX as well, though Cerebras I think is a kind of a pump and dump.
Watch my full video on that. Uh you can always join us as well over at mekevinon.com. We got a Memorial Day coupon going on over there. And this is interesting. So, Goldman says the following. Uh there is clear uh uh the sort of momentum chase that is being highly concentrated in quote everything AI.
And what people are doing is they're selling their losers, they're buying winners on leverage. Leverage is accelerating and rinse and repeat. And even though the tape still has bad breath, the market is officially getting away from a lot of the fair city on the sidelines, which is why I called this it.
People are going to be pissed. They're going to be bearish on the sidelines. They're going to miss the rally and then they're going to FOMO in at the worst time. It's typically what happens. And even if you missed the hardware rally, that doesn't mean you shouldn't be looking for opportunities in your software or other sides because in my opinion those are next.
There are great deals out there on stock on amazing companies. Anyway, it's hard because when you look at the index levels, it doesn't feel like there are great deals. It feels like, you know, everything's top of the market. But that's not true. So, if you what we do in our course number livestreams for example is every day we pick a company, sometimes two, and we granularly go through one at a time.
We look at the fundamentals and we're like, is this a is this a good deal right now or not? Uh okay. Or at what price is it a good deal? Like last October we're like, Robinhood 160, this is crazy. This is worth maybe 69 bucks at a fair price. Well, that's where it sits today. So, you know, sometimes talking about how something is too expensive can actually save you a lot of money.
But anyway, Goldman here says it is tempting, but don't fight this move higher. In other words, don't try to short this put higher or this this move higher. I actually agree with that. I think it's kind of dangerous to try to push puts right now. There's actually there's a whole Bank of America thing where they're talking I think this was in the Financial Times this morning where they're talking about structuring put options to essentially help people reset higher so that way you have a put for when the market does fall, but it resets higher with less of a loss either just rolling your options is what I think is happening here to to give you an option for downside protection but without making you feel as bad that you're missing out on the rally.
And to me, it's just a sign that the market makers want more money. The more the more options exist especially arcane and and low traded options, the more the market makers are making bank. They love this volatility and love they love all this, you know, creative crap. Anyway, dips have been extremely shallow and that is because the long only community has been and will continue to be ready to pounce as buyers.
We are sitting at the worst worst market breath since a late 2022. Retail activity has inflected higher. Retail trading volumes has risen 28% since mid-April. Not a surprise that they were a little late. And the recent replacement of the pattern day trader rules with less stringent margin requirements increases the likelihood that that retail trading activity will actually rise further, right?
No more of that 25K limit. I like 1 minute from done. Do you guys have a good ride? Huh? Oh, I'll help you find it in just a sec. Give me 1 minute to finish here. All right, so then they just came out of there, right? How was it? What were a little mermaid? Thumbs up? Did Ella like it? Canela, come say hi.
Uh and then we've got Infotech total exposures. We're sitting at the highest tech exposures since January of 2024. Come here, Ella. Can you come and say hi to the camera? Come here, buddy. Come say hi. Say hi. Say hello. Are you nervous? You don't like the camera? You don't like it? This is uh this is Ella.
She is our largest 2-year-old. She is like the size of a 3-year-old and uh she's the first one we're experimenting going to Disney with and she has been an angel. She's been so fantastic. It actually makes us think we could take more of the little ones. Honestly, these guys are harder. These guys are a lot harder.
I had to do a wheelie. Oh, dear lord. [snorts] Okay, then we got uh Infotech as a total uh as total exposure. For gross exposure and net exposure, we're at like all-time freaking highs on tech exposure. You see that right now? Uh see, I kind of drew this little red line over here. It's crazy exposures right now.
And then, among companies that have reported results, CapEx grew 38% during Q1 2026 while buybacks grew just 1%. Despite muted buyback growth, we continue to see very healthy consistent executions on our corporate repurchase desk. We keep a close eye on this. In other words, if you actually look at like Meta and Google, stock repurchases have plummeted cuz they're spending it all on CapEx.
The companies that are still repurchasing their own stock, software companies. But everybody else, like the hardware spenders, they're not they're not doing buybacks anymore. And that's usually a big support for the market. Uh and so when that support goes away, you know, a lot of people wonder, okay, well, when those employees that work there get their shares and then they crack the egg because they, you know, want to go buy a boat or whatever or something stupid, uh then uh you know, you only have downward pressure.
So, it's uh um it's pretty common to see that when buybacks dry up, the market starts getting a little softer. I think this market, you know, I'm still bullish on the overall economy. Uh I know that there are underlying issues. We've talked about them regularly. None of this really affects the bull-bear scale.
I think bottom line here is expect more volatility. I think the Cerebrus IPO is going down. I think hardware, you know, even if it takes a breather, it still has legs through at least the SpaceX IPO, maybe even a month after that. And And then we're going to start transitioning probably in July, August, you know, my crystal ball says, uh towards the more software interest.
So, anyway, there you have a little update for us. And happy Sunday. Good luck this week. We'll have a lot more content. If you don't get it all, if you're not getting all the notifications because YouTube isn't sending them, which they will do. So, if you feel like you're missing videos, download the Meet Kevin app.
You can actually customize your preferences for notifications. So, you can say, "Kevin, I only want your stock and econ videos. I only want your Fed videos. Uh like, I don't want your pilot or life update videos or whatever." So, that's fine. You can customize that. Now, I got to go deal with I'll see you later.
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