저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
중동 전쟁 등으로 유가·에너지 충격이 연쇄적으로 누적되는 불확실한 국면이며, 시장이 현재 전쟁 프리미엄을 80%로 보지만 본인은 50%로 본다. 성장 타격은 GDP 약 0.5%로 추정되어 즉각적 경기침체 가능성은 낮으나, 공급망 중단이 길어지면 리스크가 커진다. 미국 경제는 상대적으로 강하지만 저소득층 물가 부담과 고용 불안이 있다. 연준은 인플레 때문에 금리인하가 늦고 줄어들 것으로 보며, 워시의 연준 개혁(대차대조표 이론)에 기대를 표했다.
다듬은 글
All right, so in his note this weekend my next guest wrote that the global economy and markets have just emerged from a week that will not be forgotten quickly. This might be an understatement unless of course the coming week proves even more disruptive. Uh I want to bring in now uh one of my favorite economists and uh well, let's say one of the world's favorite economists, right?
Allianz's uh chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian. And you know, so you went on to talk about how much the the you know, what happens right now depends on the duration. Everyone sort of agrees with that. But you you also made an interesting comment with respect to underlying economic and financial dynamics shifting away from quick mean reversion uh toward unpredictable chain reactions and multiple equilibria.
And and you know, I mean, we're bouncing around like crazy. Today's winners are tomorrow's like today's big winners are tomorrow's big losers and vice versa. And it's taken a toll on investors. It is. This is a very uncertain time. We no longer have a unifying theme like we had last year about AI. And we are getting hit by more frequent and more violent shocks.
So this is a very uncertain time. The the tendency and the temptation, Charles, is to buy the dip. But we've got to be careful because these shocks are compounding. Right. They're not netting out. They're compounding. Right. And and and uh it's it's even like with gasoline. Gasoline 2% I think uh uh uh uh GDP used to be 5% in past shocks.
And so folks are saying, well, we could absorb it better. But I just see where you talked about these more This is a unique time now. We've got labor cri- a labor crisis, an affordability crisis. We've got other fragility out there. You've got bunny inflation. So the ability to absorb these shocks may not be as much as people think think it is.
Yeah, I mean, we have the most resilient economy in the world. Right. And that's why if you look Look our performance relative to others so far during this war, we've been much better. Our stocks haven't lost as much. Our interest rates haven't gone up as much. The household, and particularly the low-income household, first has faced higher prices, and that goes all the way back to 2021.
Secondly, they're uncertain about the labor market. They hear lots of question marks. What will AI do to my jobs? Right. And we saw some of that in the Friday's jobs report. We did. 92,000 job losses. And then the third thing they also have to deal with is now is another energy shock on top. And gasoline, it may be a small part of your budget, but it's a crucial part of your budget.
And, you know, I often think of helping your kid on a beach. You're building a sand mountain. And then you keep on putting sand, and nothing changed, and suddenly one or two particles changes the whole thing. We don't know where these tipping points are, but we don't want to get too close to them. Right.
You In your article on FT today, you focus on stagflation, and yet the R word is back as well. I know on Friday, on Polymarket, recession or chance of recession this year spiked to 31%. Is it premature to start talking recession? It's not my my my central scenario. I think it's a higher risk than it was before.
What we know for sure is higher energy prices, higher inflation for a while. That we know for sure. As to whether we get a big hit on growth, my estimate of the hit on growth right now is half a percent of GDP. Mhm. That's a lot, but it's not doesn't push us into recession. Will depend on whether the oil production shuts down, because if it shuts down, Charles, it's not like a switch.
It doesn't come back on. Right. And how quickly we can sort out the supply chains. We learned from the pandemic that when you have a sudden stop, when everything stops, and then you try to restart it, the ships are in the wrong place. Right. The containers are in the wrong place. It takes time. Right.
So, the longer this war goes on, the greater the risk that we starting the economy is not going to be as easy. And to your point, this time around it's not just that ships and containers are in the wrong places, but uh facilities have been blown up that have to be rebuilt, you know, so and we're already hearing from these different places like it's going to take 2 weeks, it's going to take 2 months.
Uh we've got to build that in. I I I I guess my hope is that the geopolitical risk aspect that's built into this oil price comes down because you never get it you never know exactly what that number is. Yeah, you don't. And and that's the hope. The hope is that we're having a temporary shock, higher oil prices, and when we get through this the geopolitical premium, as you put it, will come down.
That is priced in the market. It's priced, in my estimation, at an 80% probability. I would give it a 50% probability. So, it's still the central scenario, but it's not an 80% scenario. 50% wow. So, is there a timeline for you then? 2 weeks, 3 weeks, 4 weeks where you say, "Okay, you know what? This is going to have a much bigger deleterious impact on on the world's economy?" So, I listen to um the experts on this, and they say if this lasts 2 to 3 weeks, then the starting everything again will not take a month, but it will take 3 to 4 months.
Because then you don't just reduce output, you stop output. Right. And that that is a tipping point, as you know. Let me ask you about the Federal Reserve. The war's Fed is going to is being teed up soon. A lot of anticipation of a really friendly Fed, at least with respect to rate cuts. Not so sure when it comes to quantitative he's not a fan of quantitative easing.
Um does this does this to a degree tie his hand because again, it depends on him swinging. The the the January jobs report gave the the hawks something to to lean on. The the this last jobs report gave the doves something to lean on, and you've got war's we know his marching orders are to cut rates.
So, so first let's see what the markets are telling us. When they look at the what are called the single mandate central banks, where there's only one mandate, inflation, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the markets are pricing in hikes. We've gone from cuts to hikes over there. Here, we're still pricing in cuts, but later and fewer because inflation will be higher.
I think the real impact Kevin Warsh will have, and I'm a big fan of Kevin, the real impact that he will have is going to be on reforming the Fed, the Fed Charles desperately needs reform. And in giving us a theory of the balance sheet. We can't swing a balance sheet from under a trillion to 9 trillion, and then say, "Okay, we'll take it back, but we're not quite sure how far back we'll take it." We need a theory of that.
He's going to be very good at focusing on these issues that have been ignored for too long under this Fed. Is it possible, um you know, we we've had this discussion before, and I just I just get so so confused and infuriated and infuriated because economists say, "Well, you know, inflation is higher, whatever." Then you look at the look at the what's driving it, uh home insurance, auto insurance, home maintenance, medical costs.
Uh you know, so what you're telling me as a consumer, as a middle-class American, that I'm paying more for all of these things, and what you're going to do is make my credit card interest rate higher. Like, how does that help me? I'm trying to I'm trying to pay for braces. Like, how do you help me, the average person in this country?
That's the problem with inflation is if you let it stay in the system. And remember, the Fed made a huge mistake. never can change those prices with higher rates. They They cannot change those prices with higher rates, but they want to stop inflation expectations. Cuz what can happen? What's the danger?
Is my costs go up. Right. So, I come to you, my employer, and say, "You know what? I need higher wages." And then everybody increases wages, and then you you have too much demand in the system. Right. I think that we have an economy that if we focus on the supply side, on growing, we can grow out of our problems.
We can do that. But, we need to focus on reforms, and the Fed needs to to operate more efficiently, and more narrowly defined, and learn from its mistakes. This Fed has not learned from its mistakes, Trump. No. Mohamed, Wonderful seeing Great seeing you. Thank you very much. Great stuff.
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