저자: MarkFaber/진행:MarcFaber·MarioInnecco · 외국인
요약 보기
달러 약세와 미국 인플레이션 우려로 달러 외 자산 이동 필요. 중앙은행이 금을 대량 매입 중이며 JP Morgan은 2029년 금 6,000달러 가능성 제시. 플래티넘은 금 대비 역사적 저평가로 상승 여력 크다고 봄. 실질금리 인하 시 인플레 재점화 우려, 부채 이자 부담으로 과도한 인플레 가능성 경고. 금·은·플래티넘 등 실물 귀금속 보유 권고.
다듬은 글
The dollar has been weak. The dollar weakness is a symptom of inflation. The market realizes the US is inflating. So the dollar value will go down. The purchasing power of the dollar will go down. So let's shift money outside of the US dollar. Now the question is shift outside of the US dollar into what?
Compared to gold, just about everything is quite cheap. But you have to understand gold has some qualities. the others don't have. And the central banks not being particularly bright, they accumulate gold. They don't buy platinum and silver. I mean, Bessant, if he was so smart, he should buy up the whole supply of platinum and drive up the price 10 times.
Amid today's global uncertainty, central banks around the world are purchasing gold at an unprecedented pace, accumulating approximately 80 metric tonses per month, valued at around $ 8.5 billion based on current prices. JP Morgan Chase offers an even more striking long-term outlook. If just 0.5% of global dollar denominated foreign assets were shifted into gold over the next few years, the metal could soar to $6,000 per ounce by 2029.
Veteran market commentator Mark Faber is bullish on platinum, noting that it has historically been undervalued compared to gold. He sees strong upside potential, possibly exceeding gold's price again with a limited downside risk of around 30%. However, Faber agrees that silver is relatively cheap compared to gold, but emphasizes gold's unique appeal due to central bank demand.
He notes central banks ignore silver and platinum despite their value. With gold prices near record highs, Chinese consumers are beginning to look more favorably on platinum, say analysts. Despite platinum's current strength, gold remains roughly 2% from making a new record high, while uncertainty about the US economy and trade policies remains extremely high.
While reflecting on the big picture, Faber notes that central banks have missed the opportunity to accumulate gold strategically. He emphasizes that the US Treasury could have simply printed dollars and purchased gold, securing far greater value than it currently holds. Based on recent trends, Faber mentions selling US stocks and recommends shifting to precious metals as a more reliable store of value.
Ultimately, Faber notes that individual ownership of gold remains low despite its price surge. Unlike in the 1970s, the public is now less attached to gold and favors tech stocks. Gold has also notched impressive returns this year. The yellow metal has rallied 30% in 2025 as investors have sought to insulate risk amid growing economic concerns surrounding debt and the impact of tariffs on inflation.
Before we dive into Mark Faber's sharp insights from his latest interview, make sure to . If you ask me, say, say you ask, you would ask me about what do you think will be the result of the hostilities in the Middle East, including the Gaza uh war. I don't know. You know, it can go in many different ways.
So, I think as an investor, you're better positioned assuming that you don't know than assuming that you know something that is then proves to be false. And there are too many uncertainties. Uh the problem is that in times of great uncertainty usually assets are cheap but this time around they're expensive except there are some sectors in the market that are relatively depressed.
European stocks emerging markets in particular Latin America. Latin America is aside from Argentina which has gone up a lot in general Latin America everything considered the geopolitical situation and so forth where war would be fought physically is in my opinion reasonably attractive and I think and this I've written now for the last 6 months gold had moved up a lot but platinum had not moved at all and now it's broken out.
I think that platinum could go ballistic because if someone thinks it's through and I have to say that platinum on numerous occasions was more expensive than gold. So now it was at less than $1,000. Gold was at 3,000. It's never been this cheap. It was at the lowest level in 122 years compared to gold.
I think we may go up again and exceed the price of gold. So here you have an asset that has a large upside potential with a limited downside risk compared to gold. Just about everything is quite cheap. Yeah. Yeah, that's right. But you have to understand gold has some qualities the others don't have.
And the central banks not being particularly bright, they accumulate gold. They don't buy platinum and silver. I mean Bessant if he was so smart he should buy up the whole supply of platinum and drive up the price 10 times that's what he should do the treasury in America they should have bought gold for the last 40 years yeah and we don't even know they could issue money they could issue dollars and buy gold also if you have an exposure to Nidia or an American company and you sell it and you want to take it home and exchange it back to say I don't know British pound.
The only problem in that view is that the other currencies are not very desirable either would be essentially to sell holdings in dollars and transfer them into precious metals. But this has happened to some extent not much yet among individuals. Individuals I mean in your circle you can go around sher and so forth and ask people they don't own any gold.
They will say yes we own some gold I inherited from my grandmother three finally these are Swiss num they have some numismatic value but in general people they own more Tesla and Nvidia and Facebook and so forth than gold and it's interesting although the price has gone up the ownership in ETFs hasn't gone up normally you know I lived through the 70s I can tell you in the 70s in Hong Kong the big thing was London gold trading everybody knew 24 hours a day what the price of gold was everybody was trading in gold I was running the office of Drexler Bernham Lambert at the time and because we didn't have internet in those days and uh facts just was coming up uh People came to your office at night, there was a visitors gallery.
We had a visitors gallery. Then people would sit down and trade with the traders the whole night. I mean, if you go around Switzerland or if you go around America, do you ask people, most people don't know what the value of a gold coin is in America. If you go to the street of Los Angeles or any city, you show them a coiner uh of say an ounce of gold.
An ounce of gold is worth more than $3,000 at the site. You show them $20 bill. You tell people you want a $20 bill here now that I give you or the $50 or $10 or you want a coin of gold. My here is physical is worth much more. they will choose the $20. In the interview, Mark Faber argues that today's interest rates aren't high by historical standards, especially compared to the 1970s when inflation was similar.
He warns that Trump's push to lower rates could trigger renewed inflation. With rising deficits, Faber believes interest payments may eventually force debt monetization and risk hyperinflation. On the offset of inflation, Faber explains it worsens wealth inequality as asset holders benefit while the poor suffer from rising living costs.
To survive financially, he recommends owning scarce inflationresistant assets such as gold, silver, and platinum. The US market expects three interest rate cuts for the remainder of this year in September, October, and December. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for lower interest rates and on Thursday indicated that he may announce the new Federal Reserve chair as early as later this summer.
Investors view gold as an asset that can preserve wealth during economic uncertainty or currency devaluation. Historical instances such as the 1970s inflation crisis reaffirm gold's effectiveness as a protective asset. Let's get back to the interview. As you know with your age rates uh interest rates are not particularly low at the present time.
They're particularly low if you look at the last 20 years. uh but uh if you look at longerterm uh trends in interest rates in particular in the 70s when the rate of inflation was uh what it was recently in the 70s we were already on the 10 years treasury over 6%. So the current rate of interest rate is not particularly high historically seen and in my view to push interest rates down at the present time as Mr.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Bessent would desire to do would imply essentially an artificially low rate of interest that may trigger again uh inflationary pressures. The inflationary pressures are not over. they're still there and the impact of the tariffs on prices are still there and so the bond market actually uh has reacted quite uh in an interesting way when the announcement came that the package was signed and uh came through the bond market sold off.
So my view is that Trump he would like to have lower rates because obviously the interest expense that the government is uh paying on the debt is the fastest growing budgetary item over time. In my view, with the deficits such as we have over time, it's likely that the interest payments on the debt will eat all the tax revenues.
You understand? And that is then a situation which will be very difficult to uh prevent hyperinflation because you have to monetize that debt as it is already happening at the present time. So my view is that the uh the intention by Trump and Bessant to lower interest rate is backfiring very badly. So during monetary inflation prices go up and but the problem and that was already observed in the 17th century by copernicus the prices don't go up you know evenly in other words that all prices rise and fall at the same time no the prices go in this corner of the room up strongly and maybe 10 years later in another corner of the room and so forth.
So it creates huge wealth uh disparity inequality. It's very difficult for ordinary people to navigate this kind of movements and uh but in general asset holders benefit if they have assets. Now as you know poor people in the western world most of them have no assets. They have liabilities. So they're very badly hurt and we've seen this in the last 20 years.
The wealth inequality in in democracies has gone up everywhere. The rich people, they own stocks, they own precious metals, they own real estate, they own art, they own collectibles and so forth. All these assets have gone up a lot. But the rich people don't consume as much of their income as poor people.
In other words, if they go to the grocery shop, they don't care if the price of butter goes up, say by 20%. Because they don't eat 20% more butter than some poor guy or double the quantity as some poor guy. So they don't care about the price of groceries and so forth. Poor people and lower middle class, they do care.
And that's why you began the presentation by talking about the real estate market. This is now an example of the devastating impact of inflation on people because the real estate price are going up but the demand is going down very strongly because of affordability issues. People would like to buy a house.
It's not that their taste has changed or anything. They would like to buy house but they can't afford it. So we have a very strange economy where the economy of the typical household is suffering. There's no question about this that the typical household in America in Britain is less well off. The standards of living of the typical household have gone down in the last 20 years.
There's no question about this. You look at Britain, you live in Britain, you can see it yourself. and uh the standards of living of the very wealthy people. We have wealths nowadays that is unbelievable. I mean you look at Musk and Bezos and all all these characters uh their wealth is uh surprisingly large.
They are not the ones that will consume a lot. They are the ones that own the assets and by owning the assets they can multiply the assets. because they own more and more whereas the poor people they pay the interest on their debts and so forth and they're struggling more and more. That's why during hyperinflation periods it's wrong to think that the economy is strong.
No, it becomes very weak because of the lack of affordability. And in this period the only way to essentially survive financially is to own assets that cannot be multiplied a lot. I mean say you could own some real estate. It will protect you to some extent. But you have to be careful to own the real estate in a country that inflates less than the other one.
The dollar has been weak. So the dollar value will go down. The purchasing power of the dollar will go down. Young people has shifted into bitcoins and other cryptos and so forth. They own precious metals and precious metals have gone up a lot. I mean not all of them. Gold has gone up a lot. Platinum hasn't gone up a lot yet but is now catching up and silver has gone up but not that much.
So so we can measure relative to gold how are the other precious metals? I would say silver and platinum are relatively attractive at the present time. Most of these indicators suggest that the price of gold still has support in the near term and is likely to rise if interest rates are cut throughout the fall and economic and geopolitical uncertainty persists.
If this momentum continues, it could push gold prices even higher and more importantly reshape the foundation of global finance in the years ahead. As central banks quietly fortify their reserves with gold, will individual investors act before the next monetary shock forces them to do so? .
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