저자: 미상 · 외국인
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트럼프 관세가 8월 1일 시행 방침으로 유지되며 연기 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 관세 충격은 재고 선적(스톡파일링)으로 지연되어 4분기~내년 초에나 나타날 것으로 전망. 시장은 트럼프의 막판 양보를 기대해 상승세 유지 중이며, 10년물 금리 4.4% 횡보는 단기 충격이 적다는 신호로 해석. 금 가격 상승 지속 전망과 금 구매 스폰서 광고 포함.
다듬은 글
Donald Trump may be angry, as many this morning are suggesting he's just going to "back off ." In other words, Trump always passes when it comes to new tariffs . This is partly because at dinner with Bibi yesterday, Donald Trump hinted that the deadline for these new tariffs, which are somewhat similar to the “Liberation Day ” tariffs, would be August 1.
Unless someone has a better idea, what gave people a reason to say, "Oh, Taco Man is back." He's going to check everything. He's not really going to try to collect these fees. He has already effectively postponed duties for another 3 weeks after the July 9 deadline , when he promised us 90 deals in 90 days.
Now, instead of 90 deals in 90 days, we only got two. One of which is with a country that has a trade surplus, not a deficit. And the other, of course, is Vietnam, which is a deficit country. Still, Donald Trump seems to be seeing a lot of headlines calling him a " taco." And today, Donald Trump is trying to make it clear that he is not one to change his mind.
He says: “According to the letters sent yesterday to various countries, and those that will be sent today, tomorrow and during the following period, the payment of duties will begin on August 1. ” There have been no changes to this date, and there will be none. Notice how he now clarifies: we are not changing the date.
In other words, all funds must be paid starting August 1. No extensions will be granted. Thank you for your attention to this issue. This is again because people expect Donald Trump to somehow get away with these “ Emancipation Day” level tariffs. I think when we talk about "Liberation Day," we remember that the market was very disappointed with some of the tariffs that were imposed that day because they did n't seem to be based on any logic or calculation, but rather some weird calculation of how big the deficits of countries were and somehow dividing that by our trade to get a tariff figure.
But if you compare the "Liberation Day " duties to some of the ones we have now: Laos got a discount from 48% on Liberation Day to 40%. Myanmar—from 44% to 40%. But more importantly, countries like Japan and South Korea, with which we do much more trade, are almost at the level of tariffs on the day of liberalization.
And here many people are surprised: " Wait, this is not good at all." Could it be otherwise? Can we ultimately use such a threat to persuade countries to agree? Well, that's the main hope. It is hoped that these returns to the level of liberalization in trade with our major partners will force them to negotiate.
The biggest concern is that we won't get a deal, and instead will feel the real damage from the day of liberalization. But this issue was significantly postponed until later. You see, in April we thought, "Oh my God, if we put these tariffs in place, we'll be in a recession by the third quarter." Well, it's now the third quarter, and frankly , we haven't seen not only recessionary indicators, but also tariffs imposed at levels that could trigger a recession .
In fact, if you look at the day of liberalization, before the Trump administration, we had an effective weighted average tariff rate of 2.4%. It jumped to almost 28 % in weighted average equivalent. Since then, we have suspended many tariffs and reduced them, returning to a low of less than 7% on May 29.
Now it is about 15%. So we are still far from the tariff levels of the day of liberalization. But now, with these new letters, we expect some rates to increase again starting August 1, which means we've simply postponed the resolution of the problem for four months—from the day of liberalization until August.
So, from the beginning of April to August, we simply postponed everything for four months, which means that the damage from the tariffs may not appear immediately. Assuming there are no extensions and Donald Trump doesn't change his mind again , the large-scale impact of tariffs shouldn't be expected before the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year.
Perhaps they are deliberately stalling to appoint a new Fed chairman. And that's not to mention Donald Trump's inconsistency. I actually think, you know, we made these little changes for House Hack because everyone loves Kevin and these position changes. So, I was thinking of changing them to MAGA because I think it would be more appropriate, you know, kind of like slippers.
That's pretty cool. You know what hasn't changed? Gold prices have remained stable throughout the year after a rapid rise. So, what's next for gold prices? Did you know that central banks are actively buying gold, including the central bank of China? They are getting rid of dollars and bonds and buying up gold en masse.
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I think that's why central banks are making a smart move by buying gold or even silver instead of relying solely on foreign exchange investments. It's too risky. Who do you trust more: gold or politics? And that's why, just like in real estate investments, precious metals are a hard asset. I know I will have them in stock.
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You can get up to $15,000 in bonus gold or silver with a qualifying purchase. So take a closer look at Lear Capital. Go to leerke.com. Use my sponsored link in the description below. So, anyway, let's take a look at some of the comments we're getting. So, this is the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal.
They call Trump the " tariff man." He became a " tariff man" again. And their concern is that many of our cars come from Japan and South Korea, as do our washing machines and some other household appliances. Well, let's say Samsung products. Or, for example, Toyota cars. That's really a lot. A third of our cars come from these countries.
So we expect about a 50 percent tax increase on the fees that are already being applied to some of these car companies. I believe there is a limit to how much consumers can pay. By the way, someone in the chat just mentioned that Bloomberg reports: Amazon Prime Day sales are down so far compared to last year.
It's too early to draw conclusions, because Prime Day— or, better said, Prime week—is just beginning. But it seems like we're constantly extending these sales periods, where one day turns into many days and a week into an entire month. It kills the sense of urgency, but maybe it's just consumer fatigue where people are saying, "You know what, it's time to cut costs ." So I don't think consumers can really pay those prices.
This actually delays the impact of tariffs even further, as you have to wait for them to be reflected in companies' reports, which are always late, and then there are forecasts— so it could take years to resolve this tariff issue . So any hope that these tariffs will cause a quick recession for the bears is probably futile.
Remember the trade talks with China in 2018? We were negotiating with China for two and a half years, and then COVID started, and that was the only thing that delayed or temporarily suspended the tariff negotiations. But in any case, Donald Trump said yesterday that he would consider amending the letter, which is the opposite of what he just “ tweeted”—that is, wrote in Truth, stating that there would be no extensions.
Although theoretically he could also say: " We are not extending your obligation to pay tariffs from August 1, but perhaps we can come to an agreement with you by then ." But we've already heard him talk about making deals. This doesn't work. Here are some data on imports and exports from Japan and South Korea.
This includes billions of dollars in industrial equipment, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, computer accessories, home appliances, and semiconductors. You can see some of the numbers here. Total trade between South Korea and Japan is about 8.6% of total US imports. Of course, even more of our imports come from Canada, Mexico, and China.
These countries are separately conducting their own trade negotiations, and so far we have little information about the negotiations with the European Union, which is good, because the EU is also threatening countervailing duties or mirror tariffs on about $72 billion , although we have not seen that yet.
Some of the comments you're seeing, uh, I thought this one was from John Cena, not sure if it's John Cena or someone else, but uh, I think it's an interesting comment because it touches on what we've been talking about on the channel: that we need to be seriously concerned about coalitions, like large groups of countries coming together against us.
Someone needs to explain to Taco that all of our allies will eventually unite against us in this senseless trade war. An effective bully operates in the corner of the court or corners someone in the restroom. But a bully who walks into the cafeteria during lunch and tries to attack everyone at once gets a beating.
senseless behavior driven by fabricated economic theories that have repeatedly been proven false. And then they refer to the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s. Mind you , with Taco we actually see much less of a Smoot-Hawley style tariff impact because, frankly , the markets are under the impression that despite everything Trump says, we will eventually get some kind of concession in the final tariff decision.
I think that's why we're currently holding at around 550280 on the QQQ index. We have now lost a significant amount of the momentum the market had earlier in the day during the premarket, perhaps due to Trump's repeated statements that, oh no, no, no , this time we are going to be aggressive. We are not going to back down.
Of course, The Economist, which doesn't really like Donald Trump, so let's be honest, says that the great dealmaker is noticeably feeling the lack of trade deals. They, you know, criticize him for these "90 deals in 90 days" that lead nowhere. Uh, and confirm some of the other aspects we talked about.
And yes, there are non-trade barriers that we should think about, but I mean, also consider that we have changed our position somewhat on Ukraine. You know, Trump suddenly promised to send more weapons to Ukraine. Last week he said, you know, to the Pentagon, " Hey, we're not going to send any more weapons to Ukraine." we are suspending some of our arms shipments,” which was essentially Trump’s campaign promise that, supposedly, we would not continue to support this war.
In fact, we are going to end the war within 24 hours. Well, this war didn't end within 24 hours. Of course, now Trump calls it sarcasm, even though we all know it wasn't sarcasm when he said it during the campaign, but he also publicly argued with Zelensky, saying that Zelensky doesn't have any trump cards.
But then privately, when he talks to Zelensky, he says, "Uh, you know, we had a very important and fruitful conversation." I am not happy with Putin. I'm disappointed in Putin because he continues to attack, uh, Ukraine. And Donald Trump finally says, “Hey, I had no idea the Pentagon had stopped arms shipments to you.
We will do everything to ensure that you continue to receive weapons." So it looks like... It seems a little weak to have Trump be your best friend privately. He will give you your weapon. He will give you exceptions. He will give you good deals. If you call him and ask him, he will change his customs policy for Jamie Dimon.
He will make exceptions for companies or whatever , as long as they promise potential future investment. But he talks a lot in public . But we don't see that now. Uh , that's why people are disappointed. Now the markets are betting that Donald Trump will continue to do so. That privately companies and markets will, in essence, always be able to come out and say, “Hey, don’t worry.
Everything is handled privately. " Everything is fine." And that's probably why, if you look more broadly, the markets are at all-time highs, because we are, in essence, convinced. In fact, we can honestly continue this trend line right here, because that's about where we're getting ready to, you know, move next, which is up and to the right, which is just great.
But you see the market saying, "Hey, you know, Trump will ease these tariffs." He will make concessions after phone calls. He will give in in the face of market panic. So why not buy on a dip? Which is great. And frankly, as we're constantly smoothing out the impact of tariffs, it's likely that the impact of tariffs...So we're smoothing out the actual implementation of tariffs, right?
Which smooths out the impact of tariffs. And if you smooth out the impact of tariffs, you actually give companies more time to, you know, optimize their workforce without sudden shocks to the labor market. You won't necessarily see a massive jump in layoffs because you get smoothed out effects. You don't necessarily see a sudden strong impact on consumers because you get this smoothed out inventory build-up and gradual shipment of goods to customers.
In fact, if you need a good example, look at Restoration Hardware. So, Restoration Hardware stock jumped a little bit on the news of the Vietnam deal, because, I mean, about 30% of their inventory comes from Vietnam . But if you look at Restoration Hardware's latest earnings report, something really interesting happened there.
So, in the first quarter, they started building up their inventories in anticipation of tariffs. They had a very low level of cash, which was actually in their fourth quarter. And then, in their calendar fourth quarter, we expected inventory to start depleting throughout May. But in reality, you saw that inventories remained high.
Look here. From February 1 to May 1, their cash position remained very low, between $30 and $46 million, which is very low. And their furniture inventory remained at about a billion dollars. In other words, they continued to build up inventories. So this inventory build-up that people say, "Oh, this lead-in was mostly in March and some in April," actually probably lasted the entire first half of the year, maybe even until August 1st, which, if you think about it, gives us a longer lead-in period.
Let's look at this more broadly. So, if we zoom out, let's create a little graph. The time period for stockpiling is most likely now from March 2025 to August 1, 2025. You know, that's a period of 3 to 7, or rather 4 months, right? All of March, all of April, all of May , all of June, all of July. It's been five months.
Five months of stockpiling during the preparation phase, right ? This really delays even if we eventually get actual implementation, even if the tariffs do actually go into effect on August 1st. You know, we've already been stockpiling for 5 months. Or we spent five months building up inventory. which , I would say, quite significantly delays corporate influence and influence on pricing.
Now, if we postpone all of that impact until early 2026, markets will start to price in a new Fed chairman ready to sway the rest of the voting board members to lower rates, right? And then the markets start getting excited about it. The only reason you could become pessimistic is if we cut rates because of a collapse in the labor market.
And we don't have any data on that yet. You know, is the job market weakening? Are we on a path to weakening? Yes. But do we expect a rapid rate cut because the economy is about to collapse? No. And I think that's why when you look at the 10- year Treasury yield , it's risen so aggressively now to 4.4%, because the probability of a short-term shock seems relatively low.
And so we actually stabilized on 10- year bonds. I mean, look at this consolidation that's been going on for, what, over a year now. You seem to have outlined the field, you could even say, from October 22nd to today. You circle this area; We are approaching a 3- year consolidation on the 10-year Treasury note.
Probably because markets are simply betting that everything will remain stable, offsetting the impact of tariffs. So, this doesn't mean that tariffs are bad; it just means that their influence is blurred over time . You might see them in minor drawdowns, but not necessarily in large waves of layoffs, which is actually good for the markets.
That's probably why there's no " liberation day" style sale, although we may be taking a bit of a break in the near term, yesterday and today. Let's see. But this is my vision of what is happening with the Trump package. Why not promote what you told us here ? I don't think anyone else knows about this. We'll try som nice to hear your opinion.
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