저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 미국 증시는 올해 상반기 하락 후 반등해 연간으로는 상승할 것이나 밸류에이션 부담으로 큰 흥분은 어렵고, 상반기에는 미국 밖(중국·인도·유럽) 기회가 상대적으로 낫다는 견해. 글로벌 자금 흐름: 중앙은행 금리인상 환경에서 글로벌 자금이 밸류에이션 매력이 있는 곳으로 리밸런싱 중. 중국은 제로코로나 폐기 후 저평가 반등, 인도는 2022년 강세 후 단기 조정 가능성이 있으나 큰 폭 조정은 아닐 것으로 봄. 신흥국 관심 증가 전망. 연준(FOMC): 연준이 금리를 5.25~5.5%까지 더 올릴 것으로 보며, 이후 금리 동결을 설득하려 한다고 해석. 연준이 과도하게 긴축하기보다 적정 수준을 맞추려 한다는 입장. 시장의 금리인하 기대가 연준 업무를 어렵게 만든다는 해석. 유럽: 겨울 혹한·에너지 부족 우려는 빗나갔고 따뜻한 날씨와 가스 저장률(약 95%)로 유럽 시장이 방어됨. 일부 선진국 시장 반등 지속 가능성. 미국 증시: 빅테크 8개 종목 밸류에이션이 30배 이상에서 약 20배 수준으로 낮아짐. 미국 S&P500은 4,000 상단과 3,800 상단 범위 횡보 후 상반기 저점, 하반기 상승 전망. 밸류에이션(약 16~20배 수준 언급)은 여전히 높고 이익 성장은 제한적(횡보 예상). 빅테크 거품 추가 해소 여지 있음. 리스크: 상황이 나빠졌다가 개선되는 시점과 속도는 불확실하다는 진행자 언급 포함.
다듬은 글
all right uh we'll we'll continue to get your opinion but here is some live opinion now Eddie adini is president of the yardini research he's joining us now to take some questions Ed uh great to have you back in the program at CNBC TV and thank you very much for your time uh you know we were looking at the shop out performance in markets like hang Singh Etc uh and uh kind of correlating and contrasting it against the tepid last two months that the main Nifty index here in India has had is that uh you know 2002 is 22 all told has been good for India relative to the rest of the world so is this just some rebalancing you know money chasing the big underperformers which is going on yeah I think that's absolutely correct I think uh Global money is looking for a better valuation multiples within an environment where the major central banks are raising their interest rates so it's absolutely uh rebalancing but it rebalancing uh tends to be more of a long-term uh approach to Running Money I think a lot of this is trading money I think people are betting that um now that China has abandoned zero covid that they will get a very intense wave of infections but herd immunity may occur sooner rather than later and so people are looking for peaks in this uh in this wave and some are seeing some here and there uh but all in all I think it's uh a lot of it has to do with the chasing China which got awfully cheap with the zero covid but in addition to that India it's at a great run in 2022 and I I think it's due for a bit of a rest I don't think it's going to be much of a correction because as you mentioned there is increasing interest in emerging markets in 2023 and India certainly is uh at the top of uh the the the the range of uh of a lot of emerging markets in terms of the underlying fundamentals uh good evening Ed and thank you very much for staying up for us and have a very happy New Year to you have a fabulous 2023.
how do you understand what the fomc was telling us and the jobs data that we have got on Thursday uh that fed seems to be saying that you guys are pricing in rate cuts and that's making our job tough now that seems to be the message but how will the markets move forward on this yeah I think that's one of the reasons the stock market in the U.S did badly the today is uh everybody read that one a little sentence in which they said uh you're you're the FED officials basically told markets you're making our jobs harder because uh you're not going down enough uh you're you're not creating enough financial tightness and uh so uh I think the FED really just wants to communicate that they are going to raise interest rates some more I think they're going to go to five five and a quarter percent and I think then uh what they're trying to convince the markets is that they're going to stay there for a while historically that's very unusual historically the FED raises interest rates and then over does it and then rates start coming down so I think the FED doesn't want to overdo it I think they want to get it just right and they're sort of upset that the markets are making their jobs a little bit harder all right good morning missy Agni uh from here in India University there's been a lot of focus on Emerging Markets India and China I was looking at yesterday's performance itself and the ftse that suddenly doing the relative out performance and the ftse is actually closer to its all-time Peak which is a bit of a surprise right what's your sense about you know some of these developed markets some of them got bombed out last year and they're quietly clawed back your view well I I think uh all in all over the past couple of years it's been pretty clear that the United States uh has sort of been the uh the hot Market among developed economies and uh got too hot uh led by basically age stocks the so-called Mega cap eight they're multiple valuation multiple got to over 30.
now it's closer to uh 20. um and so a lot of what's been going on in terms of relative performance has actually been led by eight stocks in the U.S and now they're clearly underperforming and there's as a result of that there isn't the perception that the us is going to necessarily be number one and now all of a sudden people are looking for better evaluations and they're finding them in China they're finding them in uh in in Europe uh and Europe of course still has some challenges but sort of the worst case scenario of a bad recession in Europe because it would be a very cold winter and they just wouldn't have enough fuel to heat their homes and their industries that hasn't panned out quite the opposite the weather has been remarkably warm and the storage of natural gas is what running around 95 percent and they've been able to uh kind of protect themselves very very well so uh I think the investors are going more Global now maybe giving less emphasis to the the U.S in areas that have outperformed like India and and but I I don't uh I think the underlying fundamentals for both India and the United States are actually still pretty healthy I tend to be one of the few optimists on the outlook for the U.S economy okay how would you uh you know see the current year coming up but will it be much like last year with big falls in the U.S and less so in countries like India and Asia what would your packing order be well you're saying what would the pecking order be um two separate questions what would you see would be the kind of fall or performance of the U.S markets and uh what would your banking order well I I the consensus view on the U.S stock market is that uh it's probably going to be flat this year but the consensus view is that it's going to be down in the first half of the year and will make a low by the middle of the year and then rebound I I'm thinking that the U.S stock market's gonna continue to be in this range just below 4 000 and maybe above 3 800 for the next few months and then I think it moves moves higher I think this year is going to be an up year for the U.S stock market but it's hard to get wildly excited about the market because valuations are still relatively high around 50 and 16 and earnings are going to be challenged they're not going to go up uh but I don't think they're going to go down I think they're going to go sideways but it's not a very exciting environment I think again the focus is on valuation multiples and and we know that Asian markets have been relatively cheap compared to the US European markets have been relatively cheap so maybe for the first six months of this year the opportunities will be outside the United States rather than the focus on the US I think there's still some ways to go for the Mega cap 8 to give back some of their overvaluation some of the air out of their bubble all right and thanks very much great speaking with you it's always a pleasure having you with us here on the program so it gets a little worse before it gets better the question is how worse and how quickly does that start to turn at what point in the year uh if it does turn this year we'll take a quick break here our list of top stocks to watch lined up next with our research team stay with us we're back with that foreign
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