저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 2021년 4분기 인도량 30만8600대로 컨센서스(약 26.6만대)를 크게 상회, 연간 인도 93만6172대. 2025년 480만대·2022년 170만대 생산 시나리오를 제시하며 1100달러 매수 시 2025년 목표가 약 2000달러 전망. 기술적으로는 하락 채널 돌파 가능성 언급. 마진 하락이 주요 리스크.
다듬은 글
oh my gosh tesla just absolutely destroyed expectations for vehicle deliveries folks people were expecting 266 000 deliveries for the end of 2021 that is the fourth quarter of 2021 wall street consensus estimates were that tesla would deliver 266 000 vehicles optimistic folks in social media were saying tesla would deliver somewhere between 275 to 290 000 vehicles folks nobody was expecting what we got and this is really good news it's gonna be really good news for tesla going forward and probably might be going back maybe not probably but we may be going back to the tesla price action that we saw in the stock after the hurts deal folks this this is really exciting take a look at this folks take a look at this tesla q4 2021 vehicle production and deliveries in the fourth quarter we achieve production of more than ah who cares the more than part just read it look at this three hundred and eight thousand six hundred vehicles that is a substantial beat that is a beat of over 16 of the wall street consensus estimate on deliveries the fourth quarter of the year is of course one of the quarters everyone tries to rush to either spend money for tax savings or energy credits or whatever so fourth quarter is always expected to be the uh the most prominent quarter without a doubt uh total deliveries here for 2021 came in at 930 6172 that is that is pretty incredible that includes some slight up revisions and because if you add up the prior press releases you actually only get to about 935 1950 so that's about an extra 220 in there and that's because they'll make revisions when when they actually do the final accounting of okay so these people did get their deliveries on time or not uh and so sometimes you do get those revisions after the fact a few hundred here or there that's pretty common so 936 172 for the year pretty incredible a little shy of 1 million there were some initial very very optimistic expectations that we would hit a million in 2021 back in 2022 however thanks to supply chain shortages it's not a surprise now we'll look at my spreadsheet in just a moment but i want to just quickly show some ta that i was doing here so first of all we've had this particular trend line up for tesla uh ever since uh we've been under the pressure of elon musk selling we've been seeing lower highs and lower lows we've been stuck in this channel here now personally i believe that it's it's entirely possible though this year is not guaranteed that because of this news we could end up having a breakout on monday we've got no selling pressure we've got the end of tax loss harvesting we've got the beginning of a new year here so we're really hoping for a breakout here we ended up closing at 10 56 on monday and if we get a breakout it wouldn't surprise me to see a run as high as our prior high which was 12 43 this would be the next natural resistance level so we'll see if we can get this kind of breakout but with this downtrend it wouldn't be a surprise to get a breakout with news like this because this is an absolute explosion of a beat now jumping over to my spreadsheet here a lot of folks in the tesla community say kevin you are way too conservative in your estimates and it's fair i mean look i don't provide revenue for energy insurance semis or robo taxis i just say look if you guys can produce 4.8 million vehicles by 2025 which means 900 000 and 2021 get me to 1.7 bill in 2022 how would that potentially be possible well folks remember what's going to happen at 22 we're going to get austin and berlin now those are going to be new factories they're going to be capable of up to 1 million units per year but not immediately right so even if we got 400 000 out of each of these but then we continued to maximize our production at both shanghai and fremont let's say we were able to attribute uh not just the 450 000 each that we had now but maybe we get to something like uh can we get to 650 per one of these if we get to 650 per one of these each that's 650 650 200 and 200 then we we would be at uh 1.3 plus 4 we'd be at that 1.7 right so we would need again 650 000 vehicles out of each of fremont and shanghai plus 200 000 each for austin and berlin to hit that 1 7 and 20 22 might be optimistic but if we can then really get to full ramping get to about 800 and 800 each in shanghai and fremont maybe even start approaching uh somewhere around a mill or we get to that full capacity or maybe not quite full capacity since austin and berlin will eventually get to a million a piece each but get get substantially further along and get to let's say 500k a piece uh whoops lost connection there for a second we get to 500k a piece in berlin and uh austin will be at a million for those combined plus another 1 6 will get us to about 2.6 and 2023 hey if we end up adding another giga or we end up ramping a little faster than than what i just quoted here we could easily hit some of these targets especially since i only showed a growth of about 700k vehicles in 2024 to get to this 2025 we're not only going to have to be at max capacity for uh the four gigafactories that we're going to have which would be austin shanghai fremont and berlin we're probably going to have to add another unit because these will all be maxed at about 1 mil each so we're going to need another giga here now where's that giga going to be is it going to be giga india is it going to be something else in the united states we don't exactly know but i think this is a pretty conservative ramp uh or a pretty realistic ramp i should say maybe not necessarily conservative so realistic ramp here as long as we get that fifth giga in by 2025.
uh over here i do think i'm conservative but i'm going to maintain that conservatism i'm only using 40k and rev per vehicle by 2025. again nothing for energy insurance semis robo taxis i do personally believe that 30 profit margin is or gross margin not profit margin gross profit margin you could say is realistic for tesla and elon has proven this to us and expect this quarter to be no different and we continue to see these margins increase with the fanaticalness of elon musk which is the best part is no part right absolutely incredible uh and we've seen this i'm gonna be posting a review of my tesla model s plaid and i'll show you some places where elon musk is uh cutting a little bit and i'm noticing it and i know it's just going straight to that bottom line which as a shareholder you know what i'm all right with it so the price today is uh 10 53 i don't expect it to open at 10 53 on monday but let's say we go with a forward of 100 because we're way higher right now in terms of a forward p but we go with a a 100 p e ratio once we're in 2025 because we still expect to have substantial growth ahead that means we're gonna go down from the crazy high pes where we are now two three four hundred pes we're gonna bring that way down to about a hundred and by twenty thirty we'll probably be down to a thirty forty fifty p e somewhere around there right so we're gonna have that diminishing uh you know usage of uh the price to earnings ratio but with a 100 conservative on the revenues realistic on margins and deliveries i do think tesla has a future value of about 2 000 by 2025.
if you did invest at uh 1100 let's say that should work out to approximately a 15.94 compounded annual rate of return every single year for the next four years it's almost a double and again i do believe i'm being somewhat conservative with this compare this to the potential for a breakout here on tesla and let me just say i'm very very excited about tesla this is this is amazing this is the best we could have asked for elon's done selling the deliveries just absolutely smashed the only thing that could really hurt us now would be some uh form of uh pretty negative miss on margins and that would be the big issue for earnings now that we have deliveries the only thing that could go wrong here would be margin and uh who knows you never know you've got a recall you've got various different things uh regarding supply chain shortages that could always hurt tesla when it comes to actual earnings but going forward this is clearly a company that you cannot not uh be a part of this is amazing congratulations to the tesla community congratulations to elon musk and thank you to everybody who watches and supports these videos thank you so much
Comments 0