저자: Kevin · 외국인
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펠로시 의원 및 배우자의 2021년 말 옵션 매수 내역을 분석. 구글·마이크론·세일즈포스·디즈니·로블록스 콜옵션 매수를 소개하고, 2022년 하반기 기술주 강세 기대로 해석. 마이크론은 실적 발표 직후 변동성 고점에서 매수돼 주의 필요, 구글은 변동성 저점 구간, 디즈니는 변동성 낮아 매수 괜찮다고 평가. 인플레이션 일시적 관점이 반영된 베팅으로 봄. 스폰서(moomoo) 광고 포함.
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hey everyone me kevin here in this video sponsored by moomoo link down below we gotta talk about nancy pelosi and what the heck she just bought everybody loves following nancy pelosi's trades because we all know she seems to have some sort of crazy insight uh her body seemed to be pretty dang well timed and let's go ahead and take a look at some of these purchases and what they might be signaling to us so all of the transactions here are options purchases i'll go ahead and explain those if you're confused with how some of these work i'll do my best in this video to explain but if you're looking for a deep dive on options or ta or fundamental analysis program would be great for you with a coupon code expiring january 1st that way you can take advantage of some tax benefits if you jump in the next couple days writing those off as an education expense check with your cpa okay folks let's take a look at this so we've got google we've got a google call options here for september of 2016 2022 so september 16th of 2022 now i find this really interesting because september uh is past that first half of accu of 2022 when we're still expecting some inflationary rockiness see by the end of 2022 we're expecting inflation to go down market is at least expecting inflation to go down to 2.8 percent fed down to 2.5 percent we look at uh inflation now though it's at 6.9 in december we've got a cpi read coming up in a couple weeks in january here but beyond that we think there's still a good chance inflation might run hot for january february march until some of these supply chain issues uh finish off so i wonder if this is almost a little bit of a signal that nancy pelosi and presumably her husband who did a lot of these trades are thinking that uh maybe we'll be in an optimistic environment for inflation by the second half of 2022 and that's why they're going heavy on tech here so take a look at google also show you what the charts look like on the day they purchase these and we'll talk historic volatility a little bit so i'm going to show you first what they are so we've got uh google september 16 2022 10 call options with a strike price of 2 000.
now it's worth noting that 2 000 is about 900 in the money folks let's go ahead and take a peek if we were to go grab those google shares right now those google shares for september of 2022. there we go sept 16. we went all the way down to 2 000 we would pay a 959 dollar premium for those what's really interesting though about in the money call options like this is the stock's at 29.20 that means your breakeven for these is only 29.59 which really means if you were to execute these today you're only paying somewhere around 40 dollars in extrinsic value and the rest is intrinsic value these deep in the money call options these are something that i've been taking advantage of as well and in my opinion they're much more insulating than the at the money or out of the money options keep in mind your theta decay is also going to be lower when you are deep in the money as opposed to at the money and then also really far out of the money but then that has other risks as well that has substantial pricing risks next transaction we have micron 100 call options of micron at a strike price of 50.
these uh micron shares are also set for september 16th also extremely deep in the money here this is a stock that ran on the 21st with better outlook and better guidance also in the tech sector also in the chip sector and folks first a quick message from our sponsor i'm really excited to tell you about today's sponsor moomoo moomoo is an app that helps you trade like a pro it does this by offering powerful analytic tools commission free trades and reliable order execution moomoo's technical analysis tools are really easy to use and super helpful especially to retail investors like you and me many sites charge for the information that moomoo offers totally for free they offer things like daily short selling volume financial statements conveniently available in the app cost distribution data and a community that talks about everything about finances and stocks right now mumu's community is comprised of over 17 million traders and since mumu offers commission free trades there really isn't a reason not to use them the best part is if you click the link in the description down below you'll get a chance to earn up to five free stocks worth anywhere between three dollars to thirty five hundred dollars when you open your account and deposit money terms and conditions apply thanks moomoo get your up to five free stocks these uh micron shares are also set for september 16th also extremely deep in the money here this is a stock that ran on the 21st with better outlook and better guidance also in the tech sector also in the chip sector and folks 50 pretty deep in the money again just a quick reference looking again here and we'll look at volatility in just a moment i'll show you that as well but if we go to 50 dollars you're you're basically only paying about 80 cents for that option in extrinsic value not bad that's uh something that i would consider as well if you're looking for those longer options go deep in the money it's it's pretty juicy right now look for those where you're paying little to no x uh now this right here reof this is some sort of real estate llc for it looks like uh some kind of hotels in fairfax virginia san antonio and baltimore so not a public entity here roblox 100 call options at a hundred dollars now this one was interesting because roblox is actually trading at 98 so this one's exceptionally bullish on roblox at 100 however it is also they're also giving themselves about another five months on this one this one goes out to uh january 2020.
and uh it's about a 250 to 500 000 trade where which is about the same as the micron trade the google trade was about twice as large somewhere between 500 000 and a million dollars then we got a sales force transaction here salesforce coming in in the money with a call option also for january 2023 we've got a 210 strike here for salesforce compared to 255 of where the market is right now and we've got two transactions for sale for salesforce also quite bullish salesforce and google the most bullish uh based on the purchase amounts here and then we've got in the money 130 call options for walt disney again for september 16th so really looking at that second half to beginning of 2023 for these tech stocks mostly plus disney which to some degree is also now becoming a tech stock so i would call this very very bullish on the second half let's go ahead and take a look at where some of these purchases were made and then let's talk about historic volatility remember if any of the terms here are confusing or whatever i teach all of this in the stocks and psychology money group down below okay so take a look at this these are some of the purchase dates what i did is i just marked with a red arrow where the purchases were made so disney was made here not particularly at any kind of bottom we've had plenty of opportunities to buy tesla at about this level here we are a little bit above this now i'd say this is about 150 dollars about where this purchase went through salesforce roughly at a similar spot to where we are now roblox is actually slightly lower to where we are now so probably wasn't at the money call option when it was made or executed uh let's see here then we've got google roughly about the same spot as to where we are now so nothing special here at google micron was actually these options were purchased the day of the positive outlook so uh they reported in the morning before options opened so they would have bought after this surge they could end up buying the top on this and they bought these when volatility was definitely at a peak so let's talk briefly about volatility remember folks when it comes to options get this you want to buy low sell high okay so volatility is really really important because you can get crushed with volatility just as a quick example if you look at a volatility chart which you could look at let's say like alpha query or whatever to try to find this you could find these these sorts of charts yourself but uh what's important is when let's say you have volatility that's really high like oh micron just reported earnings usually volatility's peaks which means you end up paying peak pricing for call options so this is usually the worst time up here to buy and this is where they did end up buying so i don't think they're actually watching the volatility charts here because i don't think they would have bought otherwise there but volatility has kind of been doing this on micron now in fairness the stock price has gone up more to offset that we're still up about four bucks maybe about five percent from this moment here so it's not only volatility that matters as long as the price of micron keeps going up might be able to avoid that volatility crush volatility crush happens when volatility all of a sudden plummets and people pay a whole lot less of a premium for your call options and then all of a sudden you can be like what why is my option all of a sudden down five percent the stock didn't move at all today it could be volatility crush so that's why usually you want to sell at the top and buy at the bottom on volatility just as an example i bought call options on google in february of 2021 this year and volatility was at the bottom of the year and while google's price did go up that volatility boost really juiced the returns on those options because volatility went up which was great it was kind of like having wind at your back in addition to price movement anyway disney right now is sitting at a pretty low level of volatility so i'd say pretty decent for buying somewhere close to its average 100-day average is about 25 right now setting about 21 for volatility pretty decent it is a lower vol stock salesforce is sitting at about 22 right now compared to 33 on 100 day or 48 on a 30 day it might go lower but not terrible either for some of these in the monies roblox has a 67 uh volatility on the 100-day average or the 100-day average rather is 88 it's at 67 right now so elevated after this ipo but still lower than where it has been mu really peaked when these were bought but again the price has gone up since then so could be okay uh unless this really crushes back down i probably wouldn't buy them on mu right now i'd wait for a little bit of either a volatility pullback or a price pullback and be a little patient on that google pretty stable we're sitting at about 16.9 the range has been between 16.9 to 22 over the last hundred days so over the last hundred days we're at the bottom of volatility for google though in february we're down to like seven we were down half the volatility we had now uh but the good news about this this nancy pelosi trading here is really it seems bullish on the second half which is kind of exciting uh more expirations really right before the winter of 2022 which is interesting and it's uh it's heavy on tech so not likely betting or making a bet here that inflation will end up lasting seems like more of a an inflationist transitory style of bet which is kind of a democratic argument right now that inflation is transitory you do see that a lot more amongst democrats than you do amongst republicans that of course though could be politically influenced the democrats are incentivized to say inflation is transitory because that helps them pass more money spending programs republicans are incentivized to say that inflation is not transitory because that helps them block money spending programs so the truth as usual probably somewhere in the middle hopefully this was insightful to you if it was consider sharing
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