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팔리세이즈 산불 원인으로 신년 전야 폭죽에 의한 잔불 재점화 가능성을 위성 사진 분석(워싱턴포스트 보도 인용)으로 제시하고 소방 대응 지연·예산 삭감을 비판. 모간스탠리는 AI 에이전트 관련 가격결정력 높은 소프트웨어 종목 선호 의견을 소개. 채권은 불확실성 반영으로 금리 상승 우려 대비 하방 보호 역할 가능성을 언급. 엘론 머스크 사이버트럭의 LA 산불 지원 등 시사 소식 전달.
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on today's episode of the mevin report a potential cause for the Palisades of fire we'll go into detail around what could have potentially caused it and how could we prevent it in the future surprise surprise there are answers Elon musk's big move on the fires and cyber trucks we'll talk about that Gavin nome's classic finger pointing Donald Trump being called Trump the deporter as a picture of him Graces the front cover of The Economist in place of the Statue of Liberty talk about Donald Trump's executive orders Catalyst for the week and of course the big big Catalyst coming up next Monday if you don't have that on your calendar you are making a little oopsies let's just say we'll be live streaming that one Federal Reserve macro speak the Wall Street Journal and Economist pushing a particular type of investment as well as Morgan Stanley's outlook for a specific sector of artificial intelligence that a lot of folks might not yet be paying attention to this is where we get started with the meet Kevin for news that makes you m keep in mind chapter markers are listed below on macro first let's start with Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley says that a lot of artificial intelligence sectors might potentially be fully priced while quite frankly they've performed very very well over the last couple of years or U artificial intelligence has really taken off but something that might not yet be fully priced our high pricing power agent style stocks now this is very interesting see they say there are two types of agent AI types of stocks there are those sort of fundamental to their core thesis like a Salesforce a Microsoft a service now uh freshworks or even relx these they say are some of your classic AI agent vendors but there are others they say have been left behind and they find a correlation between higher pricing power artificial intelligence stocks and higher market returns compared to lower pricing power and this is where they basically argue hey maybe you should look for the ones that are not coure of the thesis as those have already been fully priced in and consider some of these other AI stocks whether or even companies whether they're investments into companies like mongodb confluent uipath appm or investments into companies like uh gitlab HubSpot sap workday at lassan and some of these other companies this is an interesting approach by Morgan Stanley where they really argue hey look for those companies that are going to bring software to the next level in 2025 a lot of folks say that companies today uh very few companies today are actually using and deploying artificial intelligence but companies that could really win at some other example companies of those that could win would be companies with that high pricing power people who keep coming back for those brands also those with proprietary data and specifically platforms that could converge these under a Walled Garden where you could use that pricing power use Ai and create an agent experience some example companies they argue meta axon the maker of the tasers and body cameras you've got experion on here one of the credit bureaus Spotify L'Oreal thermofisher and some other companies very interesting now again they argue yes a lot of companies have already seen artificial intelligence priced in but you want to look for those that still have high pricing power but that agent movement hasn't been priced in yet the agent movement just to think about it is more than just a chatbot experience it's supposed to be predictive so establishing a relationship almost that sounds weird because it's AI establishing that relationship establishing that relationship with a customer where artificial intelligence predictively contacts customers hey you know maybe service is do hey it's time to renew your warranty program hey it's you know have you I'm just making this one up have you changed the batteries on the product you bought from us by the way did you see the latest product we introduced it's sort of a way of introducing value while following up with hey by the way did you know we have this new product kind of interesting so that's Morgan Stanley's take for you not a bad opinion wanted to share it with you at the same time you've got the economist and Wall Street Journal both talking about bond yields quite frankly many people have been talking about bond yields because they've been going straight up Bond values have been collapsing and a lot of folks say this is really just a definition of uncertainty I mean think about some of the uncertainty yes Trump tax cuts could spur growth you know Social Security tax cuts tax cuts on tips the 2017 tax cut extension slashing regulation like all these things could spur growth which is good but growth could sometimes be Associated though not always because it's dep sort of bottlenecked by pricing power with inflation right more growth doesn't necessarily mean you have inflation but when you have no growth you're definitely not going to have inflation almost never you tend to have more deflation right so so you're you're playing this sort of balancing game where yeah there's a higher risk of inflation with a high growth environment so these Cuts could create this along with fears around tariffs or the deportation of workers and risk from government spending or potentially the risk of counter measures and look Justin Trudeau says oh if Trump tariffs us we're going to tariff him back okay well a lot of people think Trudeau doesn't really have a like to stand on given that he's you know in the process of resigning from the Liberal Party Liberal Party is losing a lot of power anyway so what does it matter but the point of all of this is that uncertainty is being priced into bonds to almost a maximum level per The Economist and the Wall Street Journal and the takeaway here is that the Wall Street Journal says quite interestingly that because nobody is pricing in a hard landing and right now everybody is pricing in growth and uncertainty you don't have a downside protection and the Wall Street Journal says quote this is in an article today were growth and corporate earnings to truly suffer which may not happen though central banks would need to change course and go into stimulus mode guess which asset class would gain in that scenario bonds so in other words there are a lot of these institutions I'm seeing a lot of these whether or not they actually invest in bonds there are a lot of Institutions right now that are like yeah know you know ponds are starting to get a little juicy here because uh nobody's pricing in the downside fair but then again I mean after the two jobs reports we got is there downside maybe this time is different I quite frankly the last two jobs report were pretty good the last one especially was kind of like damn okay I don't know you know will back to work at the government from Donald Trump's executive orders or back to work at JP Morgan lead to layoffs or people quitting who knows but what I do know is that there are catalyst catalysts like you getting life insurance in as little as 5 minutes by going to Mech kevin.com you know somebody that's an affiliate by the way somebody actually left a comment they're like Hey Kevin you fly a plane now you need to check your policy to see if being a pilot is covered in your life insurance policy I didn't know it was a fair question they were right that I should look and so I looked and as long as within the next 2 years after your application you don't have any intentions of being a pilot you're good and I didn't I honestly never thought I was going to be a pilot until quite frankly like three months ago and I have had this policy now since 2019 it's good for another like nine or 10 years which is kind of crazy but anyway um yeah thanks to that life insurance company so if you want to see that same company hopefully I never have to use the policy anyway knock on wood go to metkevin.com lifee Catalyst to pay attention to Tuesday we get us producer price inflation and on wednes and on Tuesday we get New York fed president will speaking on let me look at some of the numbers really quickly here so PPI we're looking for month over Monon point4 core we're looking at 3.3 so honestly that's up from the0 2 and 0.1 we had previously on some of the core numbers there so it seems like we should be able to come in lower than those numbers which would be good for bonds but we'll we'll see you know the numbers come in crazy all the time average estimates right now 0.25 rounded and medium estimates at.
3 definitely a skew to the higher side on some of those numbers so expecting some of those PPI numbers to move up for the month of December on uh Wednesday we get us CPI Chicago fed president gouby will be speaking Minneapolis fed president uh Neil kashari will be speaking if I look at the CPI numbers for Wednesday we're looking for a headline of.
three matched of last and core at 0. 2 down from3 last year-over-year 2.9 year-over-year core matching stable from uh last month's year-over-year you're at 3.3 so we'll see what happens uh with those numbers this week on a Thursday we'll start actually getting some more earnings coming through the Taiwan semiconductors that'll be a big one uh although they've already pre-published some of their their numbers which were very good and this led AI stocks to sort of run a bit over the last couple weeks Bank of America earnings Morgan Stanley earnings coming out from the banking sector this week I doubt we'll really see anything highly useful or any signs of distress consumers keep spending money people aren't really getting laid off remember layoffs proceed people spending less money so when you hear about these consumer numbers they really don't matter until layoffs happen but as long as people keep spending and the economy keeps booming why would layoffs happen maybe they won't uh Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan says tariffs oh yeah we already talked about that could be used as a tool if managed correctly I don't know if I mentioned that but anyway so uh this gives you a little bit of uh some economic noting from uh what we've seen over just the the the week and days and some things that people are paying attention to right now you know Futures move all over the place so I always like to take these with a grain of salt we did see uh Bitcoin drop in under 94,000 but right now it's back at 945 so it's kind of balancing out in this region Nasdaq futures are bobbing around zero so our S&P futures and DOW futures are slightly positive Bond Futures are slightly up which means yields are slightly down uh and if you look at the uh HSI index for uh the Asian markets let me see here uh uh Asia Pacific markets opened lower so far Australia has traded a little bit lower HSI Futures because it's not open yet slightly lower some of that might just be lagging Us in the jobs report that we had on Friday not necessarily predict it for our market tomorrow okay so let's talk about California fires and let's get into some more politics on like Trump and executive orders uh and some of the other information we want to cover so uh first California fire is 16 dead now 16 missing numbers are still expected to climb Palisades fire 11% contained eat in 27% contained uh and uh yeah okay so something that we really want to pay attention to here though is the potential cause of these fires and what's going on with Elon Musk because a lot of people are looking at Elon Musk and saying okay what is he up to and why is he getting involved uh in these fires so again 16 dead 16 still missing I just want to make a quick little note of that uh so what we have to look at here with 12,000 structures gone 27,000 uh sorry 23,700 Acres destroyed du the Palisades fire 14,000 plus acres destroyed due the eaten what we want to understand is what actually led to the original spawning of these fires and this is where we really start to see something fascinating so the Washington Post I know a lot of people don't like him wa the Jeff Bezos Peach they've been analyzing satellite footage and here's something they notice see this on the map here on January 6th the red here is Lively vegetation or you know potentially dead vegetation that's just sort of there and dried out but it's deemed to be vegetation and notice here this road on the right this sort of black scar right here you don't actually have that black scar on the left and so what happened here was on New Year's Eve uh somewhere around midnight there was a fire here and that's because people who hiked up this Trail set off fireworks on this Trail around very dry brush and so what a surprise caught fire now winds were relatively calm on New Year's Eve and so firefighters responded and put out the fire but what's fascinating is these these burn scars are very important to pay attention to burn scars can actually rekindle fires and this is where we really want to pay attention to where did the next where did the Palisades fire start well according to satellite imagery show to smoke originating from this burn scar area 20 minutes after the Palisades fire started we saw that the smoke was beginning in the same area as this burn scar now this doesn't mean that there was an arson involved or you know something malicious but it does suggest at least the possibility that heavy winds rekindled this burn scar now you might be saying what how is that that possible it's been days since that burn scar yes but the rekindling or a process known as reignition of a fire can actually occur as late as 10 days after a fire burns in area Professor from Syracuse University noted in 2018 that fires tend to smolder beneath what looks like a burn Scar and something that looks like it's an out fire fire tends to still be SM moldering down there at very very calm uh levels to where nobody actually knows that these scars are still on fire and what happens when you get a lot of wind coming across the top of the burn scar it's almost as if you're kindling a fireplace so imagine you create sort of a little teepee around fire uh and you're trying to blow that fire trying to give that fire oxygen to bring it back to life so then you take a small ering fire give it fresh oxygen thanks to wind and what happens it reignites and Embers come out and boom all of a sudden you have a spread of fire again I want you to see the area of the palit's fire that took fire look at how dry this area looks this is literally a Tinder Box of unmanaged land this could have easily been control burned especially since if this is indeed where the scar is of the Palisades fire a control contr burn could have taken place around that scar to mitigate the potential of that scar reigniting firefighters know about these sort of reignition problems but no management was conducted around that scar this creates a really big potential issue because now you have a scar which is known for reigniting with a Tinder Box around it and nobody responding to it well what's worse is according to investigations from wo when you actually look at firefighter transcripts from Radio Calls this fire was reported 25 minutes before trucks were even close to responding and by the time they responded the fire had already grown to multiple Acres they were not able to respond to the precise Source that's because fire resources were spread so thin responding to other cases around the city some fire trucks didn't actually start rolling on this until it became obvious that homes were going to get threatened and and then they showed up late and oopsy doopsy the Palisades fire explodes in fact on Radio Calls you hear firefighters talking about heavy fuel in the area as I just showed you in the picture that would be an example of heavy Fuel and boom you have the panel States fire that has now potentially killed as many as 32 maybe even more people and may end up going down as the most expensive fire in history now Gavin newsum says well I mean we had a hurricane and a fire in one what could we have done and this is what a lot of people say it's like I mean what are you supposed to do you know what come on man well I mean to start it might be a good idea to actually have firefighters around a freaking burn Scar from five Fring days earlier when you know they could stay hot for 10 days or maybe use infrared technology to absorve where you have hot spots or hotter temperatures in areas where you're higher you have a higher likelihood of observing a reignition uh of of a sort of fire or an initial ignition of a fire understand winds grew substantially on the morning of the fire the Palisades fire which started around 10:00 a.m.
and that does make it very difficult to use aerial Vehicles whether it's helicopters planes or drones because it's just unsafe to do so you just get whipped right out of the sky understandable but firefighters were nowhere seen nowhere around this battle this this fire scar uh firefighters took very long to respond uh because of a lack of resources and budget cuts from both Nome and quite frankly the calfire budget and the local mayor's budget was which is very very bad uh you didn't have water tanks available the San Ganz Reservoir was bone dry 20% of fire hydrants didn't function during the fire which is ridiculous these are all things that we could have managed faster response times water times uh water tanks on standby more firefighters predeployment these are ways that we could minimize the the potential spread of these wildfires that then just Tinder Box up and Destroy neighborhoods and lives and well even cities it's terrible now the California State uh uh Marshall actually says we're working on Land Management and he says quote that's what we need to do to prevent this so he literally admits that yeah we need to do more of this why do they need to do more of this well because the Fire season is potentially 75 days longer than it used to be in the 1970s it's almost like a a whole yearlong issue right now and you need more money now of course Gavin Newsome says a commission and an investigative committee should be established to investigate what happened and Adam shiff you know as Trump says Shifty shift uh is urging the creation of an independent commission well personally I'm kind of tired of California spending money on commissions and investigations you get to work and do something spend the money of of that on actually solving the problem it seems like every time there's a problem somebody wants to create another damn Bureau or commission to investigate and think and to talk about what happened get to work otherwise nothing ever ends up getting done now Elon Musk is responding by saying that they're now going to take some deliveries for cyber trucks and they're going to delay some customers receipts of their cyber trucks and instead they're going to use these cyber trucks to provide Starling service in the LA area now some people say this is a great gesture that Elon Musk is a hero or a god others say this is just an excellent marketing Ploy for both Tesla and starlink cyber trucks are obviously very noticeable and then hey look good internet service over there it's kind of cool it's like a beacon right and on the other say that the Cyber trucks are not actually really going away from people who are getting their deliveries delayed maybe one person got their delivery delayed so Elon Musk could say that cybertruck deliveries are getting delayed but the reality is some people say this that cyber trucks are just unsold inventory and so elon's like what am I going to do with all these unsold cyber trucks we're deploying cyber trucks around Los Angeles with starlink on them yes yes oh we have no leftover cyber trucks cuz we just gave them away these cyber trucks are obviously going to be difficult to sell in the future due to likely smoke and Ash damage that these vehicles are going to have so I'm not saying it's a nice gesture and I'm not saying I agree with any of these sentiments I'm just telling you this is what I'm hearing out there me personally think I think it's a great thing and I I personally I kind of want to go down to LA and see what they look like and see if people are using them and ask people I don't know if you want me to go down to LA and do a video tell me what you want me to see it's not that far of a driveway I'll bring a mask and uh you know like a good one and one that'll actually work and uh and we'll go check it out leave me a comment down below problem now is winds are actually picking up again I'm actually really frustrated by this because I was hoping that winds would be gone I just flew back from Henderson and it was extremely turbulent uh well at least for what I was flying and uh the uh a lot of pyps as well for turbulence you know pilot reports but um we were hoping that these winds would die down and uh right now it doesn't look like the winds are going to die down until Thursday which is really unideal as always and it's not sponsored I just say it I like to use the windy app to kind of see what's going on uh and you can see the winds actually get worse over here by 12:00 p.m.
Monday these are your Santa Ana winds they're usually an easterly flow but they kind of come from the north uh and the East and you can see on Tuesday you've still got these winds going on Wednesday 10: a.m. you've still got those winds going that's going to be sort of your green line right there through sort of Santa Clarita Ventura County in that northern part of Los Angeles County it's really not until Thursday that the winds actually calm and die down this is at the surface mind you if I go up to uh let's do like a hillside or something like that let's go up to like 2,000 ft uh calm on Thursday but if I go to 11 on uh Wednesday I mean look at 2,000 ft fortunately oxar doesn't have Hills over there that's like Port meu point meu over there uh but uh here like the Calabasas area you're going to have these 14 knot wins honestly Camaro is not looking good at 27 knot wins that's not great on Tuesday you've got these wins around SEI Valley too wow look at camio 34 35 knot wins this pretty severe that's pretty these are some pretty strong wins strong wins on Monday day as well uh as well as over here Irvine Anaheim area Santa Clarita the winds off the coast of oxnar extreme over there at the 38 uh knots that's at 2,000 ft up but anyway it's not great because this could actually reignite even more fires which isn't fantastic at all just quite literally bad anyway uh part goes out to everybody affected and hopefully these winds can die down so we can actually fight these fires and get over this anyway uh Karen bass tells us that they're working on rebuilding a lot of people are just working on signing the recall for Karen bass all right then uh The Economist is uh putting Donald Trump in place of the Statue of Liberty remember the Statue of Liberty was sort of a beacon for immigration people say legal immigration and uh now people well the economist is putting him on the FR front page in place of the Statue of Liberty and they're calling him Donald the departer the deporter could a man who makes ugly Promises of mass expulsion actually fix America's immigration system now keep in mind the economist absolutely despises him uh they and and they argue that you know during Trump's first term he uh deported fewer immigrants than during Obama's term and they said during Obama's term you ended up having Home Building prices go up because people like drywallers Brick Layers plasters were being deported and so there's a chance that Trump's aggressive deportations could challenge the economy uh there are also uh there's a political piece running on this where people argue that Trump's threat to deploy the Army rather than the National Guard uh to raid Sanctuary cities Deport migrants or suppress protests could end up creating deadly civil warlike disasters a lot of this seems very hyperbolic but it's just some of the stuff that's out there at the same time you've got US Representative buddy Carter introducing a bill to replace the Internal Revenue Service and the tax code with a fair tax the fair tax is is really an argument for a flat tax so basically everybody just pays you know say 20% when every time you go buy something you go buy an iPhone for 200 bucks okay what's that going to cost you uh I'm sorry an iPhone for for a th000 bucks what's it going to cost you in tax $200 right maybe as opposed to the normal like six or 7% a local environment charges you local municipality or whatever that's just an example of a fair tax uh some people say that's fair because the tax is consumption instead of income other people say that disproportionately affects poor people uh and that that's not fair okay uh so then what else we have there's talk about Donald Trump quote hitting the ground running with a bevy of executive orders as soon as he's inaugurated and this is where we have to talk about the Catalyst of next Monday Donald Trump takes office a lot of people don't even realize how soon this inauguration is to now it's literally next Monday not tomorrow but next Monday so eight days from now Donald Trump takes office some of the executive orders that he is expected to sign include uh ending Biden restrictions on energy production signing multiple border immigration executive orders a potential National Emergency on immigration canceling a natural gas export ban ending an EV mandate hiring free on the government potentially a pay raise freeze on the government potentially potentially ending tax credits via executive orders some of these things will have to probably be down in bills but anyway uh officially form doze the department of governmental uh efficiency with Elon Musk and V vaccine ending vaccine mandates uh finishing the US Mexico border wall reinstating remain in Mexico gender policies in schools uh you know sort of like I shouldn't say like instituting okay let's just clarify this probably ending gender identity things like uh oh you can identify as whomever you want and use whatever bathroom you want right that's that's the Assumption of what'll end up happening so uh with that let's get into our uh dad joke of the day and uh then let's get into Daily Wealth hopefully the you like these I'll give you also just sort of a a quick note on Kevin quick note on Kevin I'm super glad happy to be back here with uh the kiddos I'm really big fan of being here you know home with a family it really just bugs me to go travel uh and stay in a hotel like I personally have to say I just I just love this right this is uh here's Ella uh and there's Jack and Claire they're super happy look at the other ones they're the twins summer and uh and and Jay's really happy I'm taking a picture summer and violet sorry Jay's really happy taking a picture over there Max is feeling a little under the weather right now so not great it seems like everybody at the beginning of the year kind of gets hit with a cold which sort of sucks uh and uh you know shout out to uh Mr softies as well nice little family shot there of us having some ice cream as I came back just got back uh from Henderson and uh grateful to be back in the office somebody inspired me by the way well inspired or made me feel bad enough uh somebody inspired me to uh try to upgrade my videos in studio to 4K so as soon as I'm done uploading this video that's what I'm going to be working on which uh I think that'll be U quite a project I've got uh probably about 20 Amazon boxes to unpackage over here and and other shipments so that's what I'm going to be working on so you'll see some changes over the next few days including the potential to even live stream like that which will be pretty cool all right so uh let's uh let's get into some potential dad jokes uh well let's start with this one actually we're just going to do this one then we'll get into a Daily Wealth one did you hear about the toilets that were stolen at the police station yeah the cops had nothing to go on okay that choke out of the way let's do a Daily Wealth okay so today what I'd like talk about is uh communication now this sounds really really boring but I find it so critical especially with myself with with uh co-workers you know I'm I'm generally a very optimistic person and when I talk to people I feel like we can sort of inspire enthusiasm and motivation and we're excited about tomorrow uh I I I know that not everybody agrees with that POV you know people leave me comments like you should smile last blah blah blah you know whatever people leave stupid comments all the time it's like whatever I find that if I'm exclusively texting or like chatting co-workers that optimism doesn't come through so then it really comes through as like you kind of just talking to people in almost like a commanding way this could be true with your spouse or co-workers or friends or family or or people you're working for or working or who are working for you or whatever and so there's a risk and I've always been been a huge proponent of like text more text more don't get me on the phone don't get me on the phone uh and I'm not the biggest fan of being on phone I will say uh but what I am a big fan of is meeting people meeting people in person hey let's get a coffee hey let's go sit down and meet uh you know for a meal that's always valuable meeting people in person very very valuable getting in office with your with your co-workers meeting people in person to co- Inspire so much more valuable than just sending text Zoom the opposite like every nobody wants to be on a zoom so it feels like everybody kind of gets on these with negative attitude of like I want to get off these so I do not think that's a replacement what I do think has been extremely useful for us uh is uh being able to get in touch with us quickly and so there are a few ways so you can do this one way you could do this is you could use handheld radios if you're you're close to your team but not super close big fan of these some people call them walkie-talkies but quite frankly when you get a uaf what is it ultra high frequency yeah UHF uh frequency band setup in an area or or you use digital radios for um I guess this is digital too um cellular radios they're great because you can get in touch with people very rapidly um but um you know these these radios are great technology like getting in touch with people rapidly and having a conversation and that emotion to your voice so much better than just an email or a text hence why I always like doing these videos some people complain that they're a little bit on the too long side but I I think it's honestly the best way to convey either quality information or Insight in the proper way our our lives are not meant to be conveyed in oneline text messages or oneline tweets context is lost emotion is lost and the wrong impressions are made so my take anyway thanks for watching folks cheers and we'll see you in the next one by the way shout out to oh can you see ah the airport in the sky Galina Islan
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