저자: Developmong · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 증시가 지난주 금요일부터 오후 강세 패턴을 보이며 바닥을 다지는 중이라는 진단. 미시간대 1년 기대인플레이션 하락(4%)과 소비자심리지수 급등(64.6)으로 연착륙 기대가 반영됐다고 봄. 주요 은행 실적은 경기침체 대비 충당금 확대 속 엇갈렸고, 테슬라는 글로벌 가격 인하로 경쟁사 압박을 시도 중. 단기 방향은 불확실하나 장기적으로 미국 주식이 이길 것이라는 장기 낙관을 유지. 환율은 1,250원 아래로 하락, 공포탐욕지수 63(탐욕 구간).
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Developmong, a long-term investor using the Puddle Trading Method and leveraged Defensive. The CPI was announced on Thursday, and I held a CPI prediction event in Wednesday's video. A whopping 160 people participated in the event. At that time, the CPI was announced at 6.5%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.64%.
Among the comments, not a single person predicted a 0.5% rise from the 6.5% figure, and the comment closest to the actual result was by Jo Won-jin. Jo Eun-jin, if you watch this video, please click the "Show More" section, click my KakaoTalk link, and send me a message. I will send you a Starbucks gift certificate.
Another fun prediction event is planned for the future, so please participate actively. Also, please understand that I cannot select edited comments or comments written on Thursday, as they may have been written based on the actual figures. I have no choice but to use the account profile picture from yesterday for today's disclosure.
The Kiwoom Securities app is not opening today due to system maintenance. The losses have likely decreased compared to now. Looking at the US stock market yesterday, it follows the exact same pattern seen since last Friday: weakness in the opening, followed by strength in the latter half. It starts weak at the beginning of the market and strengthens in the latter half.
The closing trend is being maintained, and this is a strength of the stock market that hasn't been seen for months. The recent market feels stronger than it has in the past few months, and you can clearly see this by looking at the weekly performance of S&P 500 companies. What you see on the screen is not yesterday's map, but the performance over this past week.
You can see that big tech and semiconductor technology stocks have rebounded significantly, while healthcare and value stocks showed weakness. As this situation has appeared for the first time in a long while, opinions are gradually emerging among investors that it looks like the market is bottoming out and about to start rising.
Now, let's look at the weekly chart of the S&P 500. How beautifully it showed a stepwise decline; that was the section that caused us so much pain. However, looking at the chart in real-time like this, what are your thoughts? Since it is currently hitting the upper end of the downtrend line, I feel a sense of anxiety that it might fall if I buy.
On the other hand, since it has n't renewed a new low, I also have a feeling that it might consolidate the previous double bottom pattern and rise this time. Watching the situation in real-time, is n't it incredibly difficult to decide whether to buy or not? It's just like Just as almost everyone failed in their predictions regarding the CPI and Nasdaq figures involving 160 participants, the fact that we are in this real-time environment means we cannot know for sure whether we are in the early stages of an uptrend or if we will hit a downtrend and eventually reveal a true bottom.
In fact, pessimists currently hold the view that the market will hit the downtrend line, renew a new low, and eventually form a true bottom accompanied by a recession. This pessimist view is valid; since the true bottom is formed somewhere within a recession, the argument is that the true bottom may still exist.
Conversely, optimists argue for an inverse head and shoulders pattern. They claim that although the market was forming a downtrend, the support zone has finally established itself above the previous low rather than at a new one, suggesting that this is the beginning of a bull market. They argue that the stock was the first to break the downtrend this time, followed by the S&P 500, and then the Nasdaq.
Since we do not know the answer right now, we cannot say who is right and who is wrong. It is like looking at a picture and asking, "Is that a duck or not?" Just like saying, "What are you talking about? That's a rabbit," depending on the mindset and perspective with which we view the world, the number can look like a 6 from one viewpoint and a 9 from the other.
This applies not only to the stock market but also to our lives, income, and happiness. To briefly talk about income, high-earning entrepreneurs view the world through the lens of business. For example, if I am drinking at Mega Coffee, I think, " This Americano I'm buying costs 2,000 won, so how much is the profit margin on that 2,000 won?
How many employees are employed here? How much is the rent? How much is the monthly revenue? Then, how much is the net profit for Mega Coffee right now?" Entrepreneurs and high-earning people consider the profit structure whenever they make a purchase, look at the reason for its success—that is, what consumer needs were satisfied—and calculate whether this is a business or startup they can undertake.
I actually went around telling people in my twenties that I would earn 10 million won a month, and because that mindset was ingrained in my head, whether I was drinking coffee or buying something on Coupang... Whether it was getting motivated on Instagram or thinking about the structure and amount of money being taken from me whenever I made a purchase, business ideas suited to me began to follow one by one.
Conversely, most people simply stop at consumption. In other words, the stock market depends on the mindset one holds regarding investment. However, ultimately, you can only know for sure in hindsight. I realized, just as I am now, that every bear market eventually showed an upward trend. In the past, when the market was in the midst of that real-time crash, everyone ran away and disappeared.
That has been repeating for 100 years, and it is repeating even now. People look at the same current situation and have different opinions: some say it is the beginning of a bull market, while others say it will fall because a downward trend line has formed. And it does not matter what your opinion is.
As long as I make money, that is all that matters. I am betting that while I do not know if it will rise or fall in the short term, the US will win in the long term. With my precious investment capital, I would not be affected even if it were down 35%. No matter how much I think about it, I am convinced that this is the investment opportunity with the highest probability in the world, and because I have decided to invest my time along with it, the current stock price You become able to view this from a perspective that allows you to lower your average purchase price.
However, investors who feel they cannot afford to invest for the long term in this situation, or those who currently hold a lot of cash hoping for further declines, view the situation with the perspective that since there is talk of an impending recession and corporate EPS will decrease, US stocks won't recover for the next 10 years, so what should we do?
There is no known answer; we can only know for sure once it has passed. The exchange rate has fallen below 1,250 won. Who would have thought it would drop this quickly from above 1,400 won? If my domestic account is currently in the positive and I increase my cash holdings, I will definitely share the details via video.
The fear index has already reached 63, entering the greed zone. It is understandable that it is in the greed zone since the US stock market has been rising steadily for almost a week. However, the problem is that the market could come up with some excuse to re-enter the fear zone. It could rise from here to extreme greed, but ultimately, greed leads to fear, and fear moves to greed.
Of course, if you buy and sell based on this, your account will end up wiped out. So. I am finally going to begin giving you a full overview of yesterday's market conditions. The reason the stock market showed strength in the latter half of yesterday is that the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectations were released, marking their lowest level since April 2021.
In other words, this is a clear signal that inflation is slowing down. The forecast was 4.3%, but the actual figure was announced at 4%, which can be interpreted as another positive sign for inflation. We will also examine long-term inflation expectations; we can see that this surged last year before declining this year.
Furthermore, there was news that surprised the market: the January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was announced to have risen much more significantly than expected. The forecast was 6, but the actual figure was announced at a whopping 64.6. With purchasing sentiment rising, particularly for homes and vehicles, it has fueled hope that the economy is undergoing a gradual soft landing rather than a hard landing.
The factor that allowed the market to surge like this is that it has begun to price in, to some extent, the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy. With this expectation of a soft landing, the market's attention was focused on the earnings announcements of major banks yesterday. I will share only the key points, but first...
This is JP Morgan's earnings announcement. Both EPS and revenue fell short of expectations. The CFO's key statement was that this year's unemployment rate will reach 4.9% and that they are preparing for an upcoming recession. Following this announcement, JP Morgan ultimately closed 2.5% higher. Vancouver America also released its earnings; similarly, both EPS and revenue exceeded expectations.
Looking at the CEO's key remarks, he stated that he expects a moderate recession this year. Consequently, the stock closed 2.2% higher. Next is Wells Fargo's earnings announcement. While EPS slightly exceeded expectations, revenue fell slightly. Nevertheless, the stock rose by 3.25%. Looking at the CEO's remarks, he stated that they are currently analyzing the impact of rising interest rates, implying that even he does not yet fully understand the situation.
If even the CEO of a major bank doesn't know, how on earth can we predict and get it right? Finally, here is Citigroup's earnings announcement. EPS fell slightly below expectations, and revenue also slightly exceeded forecasts. Despite this, the stock closed 1.7% higher. Now, looking at the earnings of these major banks, we were able to discover several commonalities.
This... The key point we need to verify is that they have significantly expanded their provisions. This is because an economic recession is inevitable, so they need to prepare for it. Furthermore, there was a cycle of interest rate hikes at a crazy pace; benefiting from these increases, interest income surged.
However, conversely, revenue from investment banking decreased. Also, the stock price showed weakness when guidance was released following the earnings announcement; this was precisely because the guidance was weaker than expected and reflected conservative views. The implication is that while consumption remains strong so far, there is uncertainty.
In fact, Tesla has begun implementing drastic price cuts globally. Starting with China, they have subsequently cut prices by up to 20% in the US and Europe. To give you an idea of the current level, it is exactly enough to qualify for the $7,500 EV tax credit. Tesla plans to maintain demand by lowering prices, and if demand is maintained, they intend to use it as a financial stability factor (FSD) to weather this crisis somehow.
Another frightening plan of Tesla is to bring down competing EV manufacturers. Naturally, if Tesla lowers prices to this extent, who would buy another EV when they could just buy a Tesla? And Tesla is using this price reduction as an FSD. It appears to be a plan to weather this crisis at all costs while ensuring other companies cannot survive.
And regarding this single plan, the phrase "crisis as opportunity" immediately comes to mind. Tesla is attempting to utilize this crisis of economic recession, inflation, and interest rate hikes as an opportunity to kill off other companies. Nevertheless, the current situation is indeed a crisis for growth stocks like Tesla.
In fact, there will likely be an impact on Tesla's short-term margins. Many believe that the 2023 EPS will be about 30% lower than the current market consensus. On top of that, yesterday, Apple CEO Tim Cook decided to cut his salary by more than 40% compared to last year. He faced backlash from shareholders due to deteriorating performance, ultimately leading to a salary cut of over 40%.
Furthermore, would Tim Cook have agreed to the salary cut if performance had been good this time? The current anxiety among investors in Apple's US index stems from concerns, fear, and unease that Tim Cook agreed to the salary reduction because he knew Apple's earnings would be poor. And indeed, according to FactSet, the outlook for this earnings season is uncertain.
Nevertheless, asset markets inherently rise while feeling fear, anxiety, and terror. Even now. Despite the fear, anxiety, and terror, the market has suddenly been showing a gradual rise since last Friday, embracing that fear, anxiety, and terror. Whether it will hit the downtrend line and fall, or whether it has actually already hit bottom, we will know as time passes.
However, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when a newer and more powerful Delta variant was spreading and all air travel was suspended, the stock market bottomed out and rose. Similarly, during the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis, although people said the "Lost Decade" of the U.S. was beginning and the global economy was over, the stock market ultimately hit bottom before that point, even as the economy collapsed significantly.
Ultimately, if we hold good stocks in the stock market, the best investment strategy is to hold them steadily and for as long as possible. Let the "Module Knee" become your investment mindset; let's execute odds during the upcoming account rally and practice emergency measures during the current downturn.
This will lead you to financial freedom. That is all for today's video. If you found my video helpful, please subscribe, like, and turn on notifications. I will see you in Monday's video.
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