저자: ChristopheNour · 외국인
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빌 애크먼의 2024년 3분기 13F 포트폴리오 변동을 분석. 브룩필드(Brookfield) 신규 비중 확대로 최대 포지션화, 힐튼 약 20% 축소, 치포틀 소폭 매수, 나이키 대폭 증액, 캐나디안퍼시픽캔자스시티 소폭 축소, 알파벳 유지, Cort Entertainment 소량 신규 매수. 저자는 본인이 브룩필드를 최대 보유 종목으로 가지고 있어 강한 확신을 표명. 나이키는 브랜드 품질 기반 턴어라운드 기대. 힐튼은 밸류에이션 부담으로 차익 실현으로 추정. 영상 말미에 코칭 프로그램 홍보.
다듬은 글
in this video we will see Bill amman's latest moves I'm on data Roma this is his portfolio as of Q3 2024 and a few days ago we had the update and that was a major update he made Brookfield his first position welcome to this video my name is Christoph n and I've been investing in the stock market for almost a decade with a performance of 25% per year and these data Roma news these updates are very useful if you want to fish for new ideas if you want to hunt for new ideas so let's start for the first one he built the position of Brookfield I think one quarter ago so bakman was getting interesting in Brookfield one quarter ago it was a 3% allocation to his portfolio and now he made it the first position of his portfolio what is Brookfield this is I'm here on Guru Focus this is a big alternative fund look at the stock price here and we are at all-time high this is a big um fund alternative fund with a brilliant CEO and they released earnings a few days ago and the CEO Bruce flat said that they had a great 2024 and they expect to have an even better 2025 and the track record of the company is absolutely brilliant when they said that they will generate 50 15% growth for the next 5 years most of the time they do it and now it seems like that they are very bullish they anticipate 15% growth 20% growth for the next five years like locked profits and if you trust the management of Brookfield you can bet that they will beat these uh these forecast and will grow even at a higher rate so the sentiment is very high the sentiment is very bullish the management is very bullish it seems like bacman is enjoying this so because of the structure of the company alternative fund It's tricky to look at the row numbers because you have some adjustments to make for example you have 200 billion of debt and that makes you that that creates Enterprise Value which is through the roof but actually you have to adjust some numbers if you want to go deeper do your own due diligence Brookfield is calling the earnings the distributable earnings so you can calculate an adjusted PE ratio that's the maybe the best way of looking at the valuation for the for the company and I know this because I am also invested in Brookfield I also believe in the management in Bruce flat and I believe in the future of the company this is May this is my biggest position so I am very happy to see bacman seeing the same thing that I'm saying and he had like he made his first position so that's a lot of conviction for bacman the second one is a reduction of Hilton worldwide Holdings and oh just before we talk about Hilton let me check who are the other super investors that own Brookfield you have Josh terzo known for Quality long-term compounding investing so this is a good sign you have bakman you have Chuck Acra known for Quality long-term investing Tom Gainer known for the safe way of investing Third Avenue management also great allocator focus on quality and Daniel load maybe I don't have to introduce he is very very good and that's a recent buy for him so a lot of big renowned investors are getting interested in Brookfield and seems like the sentiment is very bullish by the way if you're looking for a complete framework to analyze stocks and build a strong portfolio I have a coaching program more on that at the end of the video now let's talk about Hilton worldwide holding that's a small rediction we're talking about 20 % reduction I am not very familiar with the stock so Hilton HLT HLT I'm not very familiar with the company but uh let me introduce it this is a company with a market cap of $60 billion and this is about hotels premium economy scale through luxury segments so many that's a hotel chain and okay big market cap big market share and now we see some improvement of fundamentals I suspect if you look at the revenue for the past 10 years that's very cyclical that's normal for the hotel industry and since 2020 everything has rebounded back to life back to reality net income is doing the same thing they had a horrible 2020 and now things are getting more interesting same thing for the free cash flow this is a company with some debt they have oh they have some debt actually $1 billion of debt that makes enterprise value of $70 billion so compared to 60 billion of market cap that's one out of six so 16% and they do some BuyBacks here and there 4% of BuyBacks 5% of BuyBacks and what is bacman uh seeing right now on the quarterly basis so most recent data debt is improving a is increasing a little bit revenue is improving a little bit net income has not changed free cash flow has not changed so no Mage and they continue to do some BuyBacks with a decent return on invested capital I see no spectacular change for the business so I suspect that the only maybe the my guess is the reason that he trimmed 20% of his position is because the stock price is going up and he wanted to allocate at his Capital to better opportunities so you have a PE ratio right now at between 30 and 50 quite expensive for hotel brand and I suppose that he sold some of the Hilton to allocate it to better idea better ideas like Brookfield or seport entertainment or Nike and the third position for Chipotle oh before that I'm always forgetting this let's check if other investors own Hilton you have bacman Denise h from show spring JN aritra uh no everybody is selling the stock actually everybody is streaming the stock the third position is Chipotle well I don't have to introduce Chipotle you know it's a restaurant brand a quick service restaurant brand very well known they lost their CEO that went to Starbucks a few months ago and apparently in data Roma the only super investor that owns Chipotle is bakman okay very well this is a success story I want to L borate on this one also so he trimmed a little bit like less than 1% of restaurant Brands International I won't elaborate on this one same thing no major change so uh he still is confident on the restaurant chain Howard hug Holdings no major change 11% of the portfolio and now here is a big deal he increased massively his position on Nike so I suppose you are all familiar with Nike I suppose you are familiar that the stock went down down a lot recently and the company in 2020 during covid changed uh its business models and instead of going through suppliers retailers like fot Locker they decided to go B to b2c direct to Consumers with their website and it turned out to be a bad idea in insights that's always easy to say this is a big company 100 billion of market cap and the stock has gone nowhere for the past years for the past 5 years six years so that's a mess and maybe bad Capital allocation decisions on their side bad decisions and bacman thinks that they will recover because of the quality of the brand you may agree with this one because of the quality of the brand they can pivot adjust and come back to life and yeah okay okay this is what we have okay net income is still going up what about the quarterly metrics Revenue slowly decreasing net income slowly decreasing there is no debt issue no major cash what about the free cash flow free cash flow wow free cash flow is a mess and they do some BuyBacks so this is the thesis is quite simple for Nike because of the strength of the brand because of the quality of the customers maybe you can turn around this chip maybe you can turn this ship around and come back to life and the stock can be seen as quite cheap because of the valuation you have a PE ratio let me check p ratio around 20 for p ratio of 27 so the guidance for 2025 is quite bad they expect lower earnings for next year so the sentiment is bad the stock is going down sentiment is bad you have a valuation between 20 and 25 so let's say a reasonable valuation because of Nike's quality so yeah I see the deal here and seems like bman is loving it he can do it um let's see who owns Nike you have Blackman obviously Hilman value fund Jensen investment fund Terry Smith also known for Quality investing Chris blomstrom adding the to the position Tom G poen and Lin s okay very well but bakman is by far the guru with a lot of position with the biggest position in Nike okay now Canadian Pacific Kansas City small reduction this is a 10% position I want to elaborate on this one this is quality name that I believe will do well in the future and he still has 10% of his portfolio into this name Google alphabet no major change here he owns two classes of shares the class A Class C so that's about 15% of his portfolio allocated to Google so no major change here and the latest buy to further investigate I suppose is just a minuscule buy just to get knowledgeable with the stock is Cort Entertainment Group see that's a tiny position we are talking about less than 1% of the portfolio and this is a small cap is it this one group yeah seems like this is this one it's a tiny company given BAC man's fund three uh $400 million of market cap look at the stock stock chart it's a recent IP they ipoed in summer 2024 and what do they do Cort Entertainment Group own operate and develop a unique collection of assets positioned at the intersection of entertainment and real estate its objective is to integrate One of a Kind real estate asset with a variety of restaurants retail and Leisure offerings okay so real estate stuff okay real estate company I'm not familiar at all with the with the real estate industry so I don't have an opinion on this one seems like the company is burning some cash oh that no that's the IPO cost I suppose so this is one of event the major major loss here is maybe due to the to the IPO related cost let's look at the revenue okay $40 million of Revenue so 10% of the market cap what about the debt seems like the company has some debt okay okay okay I see minimal information on the stock I see little information about the company but I suppose this is just a small stake to further investigate and if you click on uh Cort entertainment I suppose that yeah he's the only one of the out of the super investors that is invested in in this company so that was for the latest updates for bacman as of Q3 2024 if you like this content I have an investing cut program in this program you will learn a complete investing process you will learn how to find good stock ideas how to properly value stocks when to buy when to sell so that you can build a strong portfolio with great companies additionally in this coaching program you will have access to my personalized guidance for long-term results we will do weekly calls where we analyze stocks together and you will have access to my private number available 24/7 for full support if you have any questions I'm here to help click the first link in the description below to get more information you will get a video a short video that explains how everything works completely for free no need for your mail address just click the first link in the description and I'll see you on 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