저자: ChristopheNour-TheFrenchInvestor · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼의 최신 13F 포트폴리오 변화를 분석. 애크먼이 구글 지분을 약 30~40% 축소하고 메타플랫폼을 신규 매수했으며, 치폴레·나이키는 전량 매도, 아마존은 추가 매수. 메타는 forward PE 약 22로 역사적 평균(약 23)과 비슷해 대략 적정가로 평가. 다만 2026년 capex가 약 1,200억 달러로 급증해 잉여현금흐름이 크게 줄어들 수 있다고 우려. 구글은 주가 상승으로 리스크 대비 보상이 낮아 트림 대상으로 제시. 영상 말미에 유료 코칭 프로모션 포함.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone and welcome back. In this video, we are going to talk about Bilakman and his recent purchase of Meta Platforms. This legendary investor has recently opened a position to Meta Platforms. As you can see here on Data Roma, this is the latest 13F. We have the latest document with the portfolio update and be like man has made some moves.
So I want to comment on the situation. I want to comment on uh what is happening with his portfolio, what he sees and also the fact that he has sold Google. Okay. So I want to talk about Meta Platforms the overall portfolio and uh what he may see with Meta Platforms in the future because now Meta Platforms is not at an extremely cheap level.
we are maybe at fair value but maybe he sees an amazing opportunity in the future. So it will be pretty interesting to monitor the situation in the future. In case this is your first video from this channel, welcome. My name is Kristoff Null. I've been investing in the stock market for almost a decade now and I have achieved a performance of 25% per year.
And the goal with this YouTube channel is to help you become a better investor. And full full disclosure, I've been a Meta Platform shareholder since 2018. I've been a Google shareholder since 2018. So I've been following these companies for a while now. I'm currently a shareholder too. And it's very good that finally Beckman has joined the ship.
A couple of weeks ago, he went on CNBC and he said that he finally found an opportunity for a company he had been following for a few years now, a wonderful quality company at now a fair price and we learned now a few days ago, few weeks ago that it is meta platforms and I want to go through the portfolio now and then we will go through the slides of what he has to share about the investment thesis.
this. Okay. So, this is the latest update up to the end of December 2025. Um, the first position is Brookfield stays Brokefield. Then the second position stays Uber Technologies. Uber is going down. The stock may be fair value or cheap. So maybe in the future, we will see if he buys more Uber in the future.
Anyway, he did nothing for Uber, nothing for Brookfield. He added more Amazon. Pretty interesting. And we will talk about this later. He trimmed a tiny bit of Google. He trimmed a large amount of Google. He has two classes of shares, the class C and the class A. The only difference is the voting right.
But for us, it doesn't matter at all. So you can look at this as a core combined position and in the past this position was what 8% you can click on activity here and it what 8% change so he trimmed 8%. And now Google is what 13% of his portfolio it's 12 here plus 1%. So yeah, it's a pretty decent trim.
Like he trimmed like 30 or 40% of his overall position and he reallocated these funds to buy meta platforms. After this no change for QSR he sold everything out of Chipotle and he is also mentioning Chipotle on the letter. So these are all the moves from Bilakman. Now if you go through the letter you can see several things.
First of all, he sold Chipotle. He also sold Nike that I mean he was so bullish on Nike and then he bought he sold the stock to buy options and now he sold everything. He completely exited the position. Um okay. Okay. Now I believe the slides I will show you are more recent than the 13F. So we should have more information for Amazon.
This is the pitch largest cloud business by marketer with the secular IT infrastructure and process tailwinds and the dominant retail e-commerce operator. Everybody knows this. I don't teach you anything here. Everybody knows that Amazon is a huge powerhouse. Meta is new. Meta leader in the fast growing digital advertising space and one of the clearest beneficiaries of AI integration.
I can show you the proof of what he says because on the most recent data we have from Meta Platforms the revenue is reacelerating. You have more ad impressions, you have more ad pricing. Life is good. So on the latest earnings report, Meta had a revenue growth rate of 20 25% per year. Meta just guided for a revenue growth rate of 30%.
So So they plan to reacelerate back to 2021 levels. Seem seems like the capex is working properly here. Let me continue. Herz, we don't care. It's a tiny position. It's a special situation. By the way, if you want to become a better investor and improve your performance, I have a coaching program. It gives you the exact method I've used to generate 25% per year for almost a decade.
More on that at the end of the video. Here is the pitch for Meta Platforms. The pitch is actually very simple. Meta Platforms is trading at a PE ratio of 22. So, similar to the index to the S&P 500 index, but Meta Platforms is growing earnings per share at 20% per year, superior to 12%, 13% for the S&P 500.
That's it. That could be the end of your pitch. You have the same valuation as the market, but you have a better business model than the market than the average business. So, the pitch is really simple to understand. I completely understand why he is bullish Meta Platforms. This is pretty fantastic.
He talks about why the stock price has not moved much. He talks about specific investments. Brookfield, Uber, you can scroll down and learn a lot. Amazon, he's still very bullish on AWS and the stock price is not seeing the growth so far. And he is also talking about Meta dominant leader in the secular fast growing digital advertising space.
Entrenched global user. You have three billion users. You have a lot of revenue revenue growth rate of 20%. The CEO is great. You have two segments, family of apps and reality labs. And you have a P ratio of 22. We believe Meta's current share price underappreciates the company's long-term upside potential from AI and represents a deeply discounted valuation for one of the world's largest uh greatest businesses.
So very interesting here. He says deeply discounted. What does he mean by this? I mean it's not a deep value play. It was dis deeply discounted a couple of years ago. You can look at the P ratio for the business. P ratio for meta or you can look at the forward P ratio. It will maybe be more helpful.
Here is what you have. Here is your forward PE ratio for meta platforms at 22. Uh I can show you where don't I have the latest data. Yeah, here we go. Up to February. Well, good. Good enough. The forward P ratio is 22. You see that the valuation for the past decade has not moved much. On average, for the past 10 years, the forward P ratio has been 23.
So compared to the past, we are basically at your value. The median has been 23 also. compared to the past it's okay one year two years ago you had something below 20 it was a deep value now I think meta platforms is fairly priced for a business that is exemplary for an ecosystem that is exemplary for a mode that is very very wide users are completely hooked addicted they love the ecosystem and they want to stay in this ecosystem and then you have a slide meta investment thesis high quality advertising business model.
The business model is one of the clearest beneficiaries from AI integration. Of course, if you can integrate AI to have better ads, better targeting, better prices, better budgets, better experience for users, it will be wonderful. And if this better experience for users improves, how can I say it? increases the time spent per user on these apps.
It's wonderful because if people spend one hour more every day on Instagram, they will see more ads. So, it will be extremely profitable for Meta Platforms. And this is where I have a big question mark for Meta Platforms. Bill says the business is well positioned for long-term earnings growth after planned spending ramp in 2026.
Significant upside potential from AI support flaunt loading infrastructure and talent investments. In other words, the capex is huge and I recently made a video about the capex level of meta platforms. You can basically compare the capex and the cash that the comp sorry that the company generates and you see that the capex will be almost as big as the operating cash flows.
You can look at the trailing 12 months last 12 months. This is what you have now. The capex on a trailing 12 months basis is $70 billion. Look at the right of the screen. They just guided for a capex of what? $120 billion. That is huge. A huge increase. And investors in Meta Platforms think that the cash flows will increase massively because of this.
I agree that we are seeing some early signs of acceleration. The business is now growing revenue at 20% and in 2026 it will grow revenue at 30%. Is this enough? This is the question I have with my portfolio. I'm not telling you that it it is a stupid investment. I'm telling you, will this be enough revenue to offset this big capex expansion?
My answer is probably not. Probably no. If you generate I mean now they are generating 115 billion of operating cash flows. So maybe they can grow 30 30%. What is 30%? Let me calculate it live. 15 30% growth rate that's 150. So, $150 billion in operating activities, cash from operating activities, taking into account that margins will stay the same and there will not be uh big interest expenses, depreciation, amortization.
Well, let's let's assume the cash conversion is the same and the cash flows are growing 30% in 2026. So you have a business that will generate $150 billion of operating cash flows, capex of 120 will you will have a free cash flow of $30 billion. Look at this compared to the past how big it is. You will go from a free cash flow of 504 billion to 30.
It's a decline. And we took the assumptions that margins would stay the same that the cash conversion would stay the same. What if it doesn't happen like this? What if you have margin compression because of all this cost? There is a scenario where because of this huge capex cycle, capex shrinks to what 20 billion euros 20 billion.
So almost nothing. And the second question I have is yes, you will have a big capex expansion in 2026. What about 2027? Do you continue or do you stop? And my guess is they will continue. So for several quarters, several years, meta platforms in this new era of AI will have to spend hundreds of billions of dollars and generate minimal free cash flow.
And now the investment pitch is changing for Meta Platforms. Before Meta Platforms was known for having a pristine balance sheet with a lot of cash. Now they are taking more debt. Second point, Meta Platforms was known for having great margins, generating strong free cash flow. Now they are no longer generating free cash flow.
The pitch is about growth. Okay, full growth in revenue. And this is what they say. They want growth, 20% growth rate. But Bakman knows this. So they say historical cost discipline as we've seen for 2023 and the year of efficiency efficiency and recently announced budget cuts in the reality lab segment highlight focus on balancing AI investments.
So spending a lot in capex with operational efficiencies overbuilding risk mitigated by the core business's ability to grow into and absorb excess capacity strong balance sheet and high margin core business provides significant financial flexibility and this is where I meet because out of all the magnificent seven companies my favorite one is meta platforms at the moment at current prices by are Google has run up in price so Google doesn't have the same riskreward.
Amazon will not generate any free cash flow. So it's all about a growth story. Meta platforms has the growth story and at the same time huge margins. So I like his buy. I like the buy a lot. Actually be like man buying meta platforms gives me even more confidence to hold meta platforms. So despite the huge capex um maybe you can give them the benefit of the doubt and I have both Meta and Google in my portfolio.
The first one I would trim is Google. The one I would keep and I have both Meta and Google in my own portfolio. I know I will keep Meta longer than Google because of the resiliency of the business model, the simplicity, the quality of the management team and I'm very happy to see be likemind buying the dip on meta platforms.
Now actually the valuation is not that expensive at all. If anyone was on the sidelines waiting for a good price to buy meta platforms, maybe now is a good time. Now you have an exemplary business model at a fair price. So this is the sweet spot and I like the report from Belman and I'm looking forward to seeing if he increases the position in the coming quarters.
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