저자: ChristopheNour-TheFrenchInvestor · 외국인
요약 보기
데이비드 테퍼(Appaloosa)의 2025년 말 13F 포트폴리오 변화를 분석. 중국 노출(알리바바, 핀둬둬, JD 등)과 에너지 관련 비중은 대부분 축소된 반면, 메모리 반도체(마이크론 3배 증액, 삼성전자·SK하이닉스 관련 한국 지수 노출)와 구글·메타 등 AI 수혜주는 확대. 진행자는 메모리 가격 상승 추세가 지속될지에 대해 본인은 확신이 없어 직접 투자하지 않겠다는 입장이며, 사이클 전환 리스크를 강조. 피저브·지역은행 등은 매도.
다듬은 글
In this video, I want to talk about David Ter from Apaloosa Management and I want to comment on his latest buys, what he just sold. His portfolio was just made public a couple of days ago, couple of weeks ago, and we have the latest updates for the end of 2025. So, we are in 2026. Anything can happen in the meantime, but we have plenty of colors here as you can see.
So plenty of additions, plenty of trimming and I want to comment on this situation because David Ter is a very interesting investor that you want to follow. He has been investing for many decades outperforming the market and in the late recent years he had some common themes. one, China, two chips, three energy, three themes from his portfolio.
And I just stumbled upon this report and I said, "Okay, I need to make an update because definitely some things are moving." So, we'll talk about specific stocks, we'll talk about specific companies, specific trends. And I think we can start. In case it is your first video from this channel, welcome.
My name is Christoph Nur. I've been investing in the stock market for almost a decade now. and I have achieved a performance of 25% per year. And I am always monitoring what all the super investors are doing. I'm checking all of them. But sometimes you have to analyze in more details some legendary investors like David Ter.
So I talked about the key themes in his portfolio. The first one being China. So, let's look at his holdings from China and see if we had some additions or not. Maybe I can zoom in a little bit so you see better. Okay, the first position in his portfolio is Alibaba has been Alibaba and for the moment it will continue to be Alibaba, but he trimmed Alibaba 20%.
In the past, Alipa was a bigger position for him. And as I'm recording the video, the price is $150. He bought a couple of quarters ago. He benefited from the huge rise in stock price. And over the past couple of quarters, he just trimmed, trimmed, trimmed, trimmed. He cut the position. And now he continues to cut the position.
The second Chinese investment he has is Pinodio. It's 3% of his portfolio and he trimmed by 1%. So almost no change here. The other one is an ETF for China. 2% of his portfolio. He trimmed by a third. So trimming trimming trimming. Seems like the trend is not uh showing an appealing riskreward anymore.
Right. JD.com 2% of his portfolio trimming by one/ird again. one other Chinese investment that he has reduced BU 1% of his portfolio he cut by half the position let me continue if I have another one China large cap ETF 1% of his portfolio he reduced by 2% so all the Chinese exposure was reduced do you have things that he completely sold out of no I don't think so for China.
So really interesting. The first most important theme in his portfolio is uh looking at the exit door. He just cut everything. He is trimming everything. By the way, if you want to become a better investor and improve your performance, I have a coaching program. It gives you the exact method I've used to generate 25% per year for almost a decade.
More on that at the end of the video. What are the other trends? I told you before you had chips. Okay, let's look at chips. You have Micron now 6% of his portfolio. He tripled the position. Now that's conviction. He increased the position by 200%. Micron is a clear beneficiary from memory prices, memory bottleneck.
Nobody could have seen this coming. Some experts called it in 2022 and uh if you had spotted this trend, you would have made a fortune. The stock price of Micron went from 100 to 400 in less than one year. The move is shocking. And if you look at the memory prices, this is just vertical. This uh industry is known for being cyclical and now they are getting hit by a huge bottleneck.
So they are printing cash and for the moment they show no signs of uh changing. They so they see no signs of change. You have a lot of demand very uh low supply. So for the moment they will keep printing cash and markets are forwardlooking. So they think that the cash flows they will print will be here for many years.
You even have some people that say this industry is no longer cyclical. The this move is now the new normal. Uh good luck to these people. This industry is known for being cyclical. So maybe it's too early to call it non cyclical. Every time of the of the top of the cyclicality, you always had people saying uh this time is different.
It turns out this time is never different. But David Ter wants to ride this big wave. So he bought the position between October and December 2025. And we can check the stock price back in the days. uh it was at 200 and now the stock price is at 400. So a quick easy double for one of the best investors of the world and it is why we monitor them because you can make this exercise for all of their stocks.
Now maybe for Micron it's too late or maybe not but you can do this exercise for all their stocks. Okay, let me continue with the chips or the chips TSMC 5% of his portfolio. He added a little bit added 6% more. Nvidia 5% of his portfolio he trimmed a tiny bit minus 10%. Um let me continue. Qualcomm 3% of his portfolio he reduced by 8%.
Okay. Okay. Corning is here trimmed a little bit 2% of his portfolio. Interesting. And then we are talking about smaller positions. Lamb Research, he added a little bit. That's one person of his portfolio. I'm a shareholder of Lamb Research. So, I see what he's saying here. AMD, that's one% of his portfolio.
Oh, that's quite funny. He reduced the exposure to AMD by 60%. By 2/3. So, he has less conviction in AMD than for Micron by a lot. He trimmed a little bit of ASML. And I believe that's pretty much it. Did he Did he exit some full positions? No. No. No. Small positions. No. Okay. So, in terms of chips, the big move is Micron.
Let's be honest. And TSMC is still a core holdings. So, you have a little bit of trimming for small exposures and some big additions. I would say the theme is still intact. So, we have covered China. The theme is declining. It is trim being trimmed for chips. The theme is still intact. What about the third theme?
It was energy because energy is a clear bottleneck to AI. So let's see what he has. Uh no no energy energy it's 4% of his portfolio. He reduced heat train by 12%. Okay. Vistra 2% of his portfolio. He trained by 20%. Oh, interesting. Uh, where is it? No, no, no. Energy transfer. He it was one person of his portfolio and he cut by half the exposure.
Interesting. So, the energy theme is no longer valid. He has trimmed everything. Okay. What about the new stocks? What about the new portfolio? Right now you have Alibaba 11% of the portfolio. Google 8% of the portfolio. He added 30% more Google. So that shows a lot of conviction. He trimmed Amazon a little bit minus 12%.
Uh and he added a lot of meta platforms. So he believes Google and Meta Platforms will be clear beneficiaries of AI, maybe faster implementation compared to Amazon. So he added 60% more to his Meta Platforms position. I mean we just saw that Bill Aman the legendary investor just bought Meta Platforms maybe for the first time.
So pretty interesting to see all the super investors buying more meta platforms. And then you have TSMC 5% of his portfolio. Nvidia 5%. Wpool. Well, that's funny, right? Last couple of quarters WPool was a big position for him. I mean, I can show you Wpool and people said uh that he was seeing something different.
He made Wpool a huge position in his portfolio like five or 6% like Micron right now. And then now he's streaming one third. So what is happening with Wpool? Is it a short-term trade? I suppose yes. I suppose yes. Last time he bought was in summer 2025. It was around here at $80 and he trimmed here for $80.
So almost no gains. Maybe he was here for a short-term trade that never happened or maybe a tiny bit of a recovery. I did not understand the buy behind Whirlpool. I made a video 3 months ago covering his portfolio saying I don't understand at all what he's doing right now and I'm glad he's trimming.
Um, next you have some energy play Microsoft a little bit of an addition. I'm will be very surprised if I I would be very curious to see the next quarter now that Microsoft is down a lot to see all the super investors buying Microsoft. Microsoft is down to April lows to liberation day lows one year ago.
So it's a good opportunity to buy Microsoft. You have a resilient AI play. Then he's buying American Airlines. Frankly, I see no reasons to buy American Airlines. I'm seeing I'm putting this trade in the same category as Whpool. You have Oh, you have potentially some short-term moves because of revenue acceleration, but the business is not famous for being shareholder friendly.
So, not a fan of this. Pindoo is 3%. Many investors are moving out of pin by the way. We will see. Qualcomm nothing. And he just bought an index of Korea. Now close your eyes. You can now open your eyes. Look at this beautiful trend of the Korean index. Nobody is talking about Korea. Nobody is following what is happening in Korea.
But uh strangely enough, if you have a memory shortage and you have SKH Highix and Samsung from Korea and Samsung and SKH Highix are doubling in stock price, it will change this the mood for Korea. So you can check what is happening for SKH Heinix, a cheap company from Korea. Look at this. On a let me show you the website in English.
On a one-year move plus 400% fiveyear move skyrocketing from Korea. And then you have Samsung. Samsung here. Look at the stock price of Samsung. Let me put the website in English so you see better. Over one year plus 200%. So half tripled. This crazy. And over the past five years, look at the stock chart is it's absolutely crazy.
I was following Samsung back in the days when the stock was down at in the late 2024 period because of capex and deceleration of growth and at the time at the time people were quite bearish for Samsung. Even people following Samsung covering the industry did not see the memory bottleneck. So for all the people that have missed out on Micron, Samsung, Heskin, all these chips because now everything is going up and to the right.
It's okay guys. Even experts and I know this with the credible sources. I've been following experts in this industry. Even them did not see this coming. A few people were talking about this, but not the majority at all. It's quite shocking what we have for Korea right now. It's quite shocking what we have for memory prices.
I mean, you can look at uh what is it for DAM prices? Something like this. Look at this on Twitter. You have the evolution of prices. Look at this skyrocketing very recently. Memory spot price trend. You can uh look at some charts. Horrifying charts. Nobody could have seen this coming. Amazing to see this.
It's amazing. So obviously it will help Korea a lot. And David Ter is joining the train. The memory prices went from two to 20 multiplied by 10. completely crazy move actually. Um, this is phenomenal and I would not bet on this trend to continue. I'm not a chip expert. I'm not a memory expert. So personally, if I had some shares, I would sell all because you have other stocks that went down that have better riskreward because nobody knows if this cycle will turn and nobody knows when this cycle will turn.
If or when call it whatever you want, but I mean the only question you need to ask if you invest in Micron, in SKH, Samsung is this chart. Can it continue? This is it. If this trend goes down a little bit, the stocks with memory prices will go down a lot because the momentum will fade away and it will be ugly for all the people that are being at the top.
But there can be another scenario. What if they continue to double again? What if this price goes from 20 to 30, 35, 40, 45? And I'm not personally comfortable making this bet. So I will not touch my crone. I will not touch these kind of stocks. But it's kind of funny to see super investors joining the train, joining the wagon and buying an index in Korea, buying Micron.
They are taking the decision. They are making a bold bet here. So congratulations to them. It takes a lot of courage to do this. And David Ter is known for having a lot of courage and you can watch his interviews online especially the interviews regarding China. I can I can quote him. What is your hedge?
My hedge is I don't care. It's a literal quote from David. So wonderful. Okay, let me continue. Uh you have Vistra down a little bit technology. Now we are talking about small positions. That's 2%. It will not move the needle. Corning flat. Dodge bank decreasing. J.com he is increasing his position in Owens.
Corning and then uh weapons flat weapons flat. He's not touching the weapons investments. BU cut in half. More work industries increasing to 1%. Now we are talking about speculative plays. And can I note some things? UNH that was really famous and trendy a couple of months ago. He did not touch his position and that's only 1% of his portfolio.
What else? What else? He just bought a new stake in Ball. Ball Corp. Let me check what is B Corp. Largest metal can manufacturer. Okay. Very boring play. The stock is on an alltime high. So it's about description commodities. Okay, could be interesting. And now let's see the kind of things he has sold because he recently sold out of a few companies.
The first one being Fizer. A couple of months ago, Fiser was trendy online. The stock was going down and plenty of value investors jumped to buy Fiserve. It turned out fizer is a fraud. It turned out they will have problem with the SEC with the regulators because they cheated on their numbers. They fired the CEO.
They changed their guidance. It's a blood bath. It's a it's a blood bath. So typical value trap and uh some value investors will be doubling down because they still think it's a great business. Okay. Some investors will leave and buy other things that are safer. Both directions are correct depending on your risk tolerance.
David Ter is out completely out of Fizerve since the stock collapsed in October 2025 the stock has not rebounded whatsoever maybe it's a value trap but um maybe it's not good to invest in Fiser right now that now that you know it's a fraud in terms of risk it's not for everybody it has become much more risky to touch fizer so he completely sold out of the position position tres financial it was a small position he sold out Caesar Entertainment sold out k sold out citizen financials group so small regional banks he's out okay blog and these are irrelevant buys okay so a lot of holdings a lot of moves China is uh trimmed energy is trimmed chips is still a theme that is intact he is buying buying into memory chips.
He's buying into Korea and Micron. So, he is really bullish on memory prices to go up again. He is doing this bet. He's making this bet that memory prices will stay up and continue to go up so these companies will print cash. It's a really interesting quarterly report and uh I'm looking forward to seeing what he will do next.
If you like this content and you want to go deeper, I have a coaching program. In this program, you will learn my strategy to generate 25% annual returns. You will learn how to find winning opportunities. You will learn how to properly value any stock, when to buy, when to sell, so that you can build a strong portfolio filled with great companies.
Additionally, inside this coaching program, you will have access to an exclusive community of like-minded investors and also you will have my personalized guidance to reach your investing goals. Click the first link in the description to get more information. You will get a video that explains how everything works completely for free.
No need for your email address. Just click the link in the description and I'll see you on the other
Comments 0