저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
미시간대 소비자심리지수가 50.2로 예상(58.1)을 크게 하회하고 1년 기대인플레이션(5.4%)·5~10년 기대인플레이션(3.3%)이 상승. 근원 CPI 등 물가 지표는 시장 예상을 벗어나 연준의 추가 긴축(50bp 이상, 비정기 인상 가능성)이 거론됨. 10년물 금리 3.17%로 상승, 나스닥 -3.22%, 테슬라 -3.5%. 전반적으로 주식 하락 압력을 경고하는 비관적 진행자 관점.
다듬은 글
lee holy smokes folks another terrible miss it's not just the cp line number that came out this morning but oh my gosh folks it is 7 a.m i literally just got print and inflation expectations and this full on sucks baloneys like uh it i should not i should not have put this on today okay i jinxed it to the moon i jinxed it or or it's because i'm literally packing right now because i'm going to canada every freaking time i leave god damn june this [ __ ] happens university of michigan consumer sentiment last survey was 58.4 the current expectation was that we were gonna get a read of 58.1 what did we get 50.2 absolutely terrible miss under 50 is like very bad that means more people are upset than they are happy and we're 50.2 we're almost there university of michigan consumer current conditions the expectation was 62.9 slightly down from the 63.3 before that comes in at 55.4 disaster one-year inflation expectations this is a bad one okay this one-year inflation expectations we were at 5.3 then we were expecting to remain stable at 5.3 comes in at 5.4 that means inflation expectations have gone up for the one-year inflation for the five to ten year horizon of inflation we were at three percent now we're at three point three percent also rising inflation expectations and regarding consumers expectations for the market prior release 55.2 survey 55.3 as if things got better all of a sudden but no it comes in at 46.8 i mean horrible miss as the numbers came in i i said to my dad if those inflation expectations go up stocks will go down and sure enough that's exactly what happened because the sentiment came out here and then okay but this this is beside the point because i gotta show you what's happening with this particular chart that i got to show you because it's another freaking disaster okay so i'm gonna pull up these charts but i want to quickly look at the five year break evens five year break evens this is the market's expectation for inflation's right for future inflation peak today at 3.16 like we had we had a nice big big run over in march and april here you know what we'll just put up a screenshot what a big run in march and april and uh and then i kind of plummeted it's like okay all right you know the peak is behind us like inflation's a peak inflation is here we're good now everything's good now right yeah no not no not even close and so what's happening inflation breakeven expectations for the market are rising that's that part right here above my head so you can see we're down from about that 3.8 but look at the spike that we're getting over here and it totally makes sense with what we're seeing not only with the huge miss on inflation this morning but also the consumer estimates that we got which you know what's really ugly about the consumer estimates that we got this morning with inflation expectations rising that survey was done before this latest inflation print came out so if consumers are like oh my gosh we have the worst inflation in 40 years but at least maybe it's peaked and their expectations for inflation are going up and then all of a sudden we get an even worse cpi print well then consumer expectations for inflation would rationally go up even more so in other words this latest consumer estimate or expectation survey doesn't even consider the the impact of like tucker carlson now telling us about the absolute worst inflation on top of this you got the 10-year treasury jumping to 3.17 folks that means mortgage rates are going to take up again and not only are they going to take up again but what else well real surprise is probably just going to get a little boopsie doopsies that's going to create some opportunities and that's why a lot of you are signing up for the programs on real estate wealth link down below whether it's the bundle most of you going for that bundle for then the do-it-yourself property management or rental renovation so you can run a lean ship and save thousands of dollars on your renovations and join our lowe's partnership as well check it out by the link down below but i got to show you these charts because these charts signal a bigger problem right here you ready for this right here look at this this was the cpi month over month chart remember we did this yesterday on the whiteboard it looked like this this is a zoomed in picture of my whiteboard right that's what the chart looked like well this is that was just me kind of hand drawing it this is what it looks like in the back end and what i want you to see is that this bell curve right here is where the estimates are right so here you have economists betting here here and here and it's you know how many economists you have betting in each place it goes up in increments of five over here so you've got you know dozens of economists well look at this folks this is where everybody was this is where inflation came in on the month over month let's try the experiment again oh core cpi this is where everyone was this is where it came in let's try year over year this is where everyone was this is where it came in what does that tell you it tells you that we need to get paul frick and volcker on the phone because our economists the people who are supposed to be brilliant all these people the people who are supposed to be smart and brilliant and know what they're doing and the smart money people and the researchers over at the fed they're the ones who are supposed to be telling us what the hell is going on and they consistently get it wrong it's devastating so how could you rely on this and so now this increases not only the odds of getting a uh you know multiple 50 basis point hikes but it also increases the odds of potentially a rug pull paul volcker move where all of a sudden we just get some kind of uh big hike like out of the blue like an inter-meeting hike of a hundred basis points or something like that could you imagine if this afternoon jerome powell comes out and goes folks emergency meeting where we're forget next week's meeting we're going to raise rates 1 right now that's 100 basis points right now what do you think would happen to the stock market okay now what we also should do is oh gosh yeah look at the expectations right here for uh the rates at the end of the year so last week the market was expecting this top line right here that we would be somewhere between two and a half to two point seven percent by the end of the year with a 36 percent probability well that's now moved down to just eight percent and instead what's now a 37 percent probability is actually a whole another 50 basis points higher sitting oops right here at 37.3 percent chance of being at 3 to 3.25 and the dot plot that we get from the federal reserve next week wouldn't surprise me if at the end of the year it says something like three percent and that's probably going to lead the market to sell down as well i mean this is just it's just bad tesla's down three and a half percent the nasdaq's down 3.22 we're still off the bottom bottom on the nasdaq but if we end up getting any kind of volker action here and we keep getting these sorts of reports we are not leaving this floor and it sucks big time baloneys that's what i have to say it sucks big time baloneys and i'm sticking to it not only am i sticking to it but now i'm gonna go i'm gonna go hop on a plane and i'm gonna get the heck out of here i'm going to canada but if you want to learn about real estate and save lots of money and get ready to go make lots of money check out the link down below and i'll see you in there i review every deal that people put into escrow and i can't wait till the end of the year maybe mid next year beginning to mid next year when we go shopping for deals and i look at all your deals even those of you who are buying now i look at your deals link down below i'll also look at your remodels in the do or help you with your tenant questions
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