저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미국 주택시장 둔화 조짐(재고 증가, 목재 가격 하락, 모기지 대출 감소)을 근거로 부동산 가격 조정을 경고. 10년물 국채금리 3.25~3.75% 상승 가능성과 모기지금리 상승이 구매력을 낮춘다고 주장. 장기적으로 2024~25년 연준 금리 인하 가능성을 언급하며 10~15% 하락을 기본 시나리오로 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here yesterday we talked about how housing market inventory was starting to inflect up and that we've got a substantial move up in the amount of homes on the market with price drops we went into detail in that video yesterday in that video called the housing market crash has started but today we have even more information even more detail that's going to provide color to us in terms of how high do we actually think interest rates are going to go how high do consumers think interest rates are going to go and how much of an impact going to have on interest rates we've got answers to all of this along with some more data points that we got to talk about let's start with some of these data points and then get into some of the answers so first we know that the founder of the real estate case-shiller index suggests that memories of a housing market bubble may be coming back soon then we see demand destruction in lumber which is heavily driven by the housing market and how much people are actually building new homes specifically home builders but it's no surprise that when home builder sentiment falls 17 that we also see demand destruction in lumber and lumber now hitting a nine-month low dropping four percent today and essentially plummeting back to earth now lumber prices had skyrocketed during the pandemic uh and uh in 2021 as a home building went crazy but some say that lumber prices falling could be a leading indicator that yup real estate markets are definitely slowing down what else do we have we've comments everywhere whether it's on down below on youtube or in real estate news websites like inman news whatever everyone in the industry inside the industry seems to be talking about the clearest day slowdown that's happening whether it's in lending and building in sales you name it then we've got mortgage volume down 31 year over year 18 quarter to quarter that is q4 to q1 and you might be thinking well i mean that's going to include a decline in refinances and you're right about that purchase volume though down at 12 year-over-year but also purchase volume for loans down 18 in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter this is the fastest decline that we've had in eight years however home equity line of credit loans going up this is a good thing nice thing about home equity lines of credit is during high interest rate environments and you wanting to take money out of a property you can take money out of property with a home equity line of credit but not use it until you need it which means you're not actually paying those higher interest rates until you need the money so i'm a big fan of he-locks he used to be a big fan of relocks rental property lines of credit but those are almost impossible to get right now so these are some updates on what's going on here but the big thing that i want to talk about now is what we actually expect during a tightening cycle from the federal reserve where do we think mortgage rates are going to go from here i do want to quickly mention though that you can get two hundred dollars totally for free with a tasty trades it is the same company as tasty works the t-shirt i'm wearing here their brokerage platform they will give you two hundred dollars and no questions asked 200 you leave your money in there for two months you'll get 200 it's not up to 200 it's literally here's a free 10 on your money and it's a special offer that they've got going on so check it out by going to mckevin.com tasty all right so what do we got here we got peak 10-year treasuries when are we going to hit a peak with a 10-year treasuries and why do we care about the 10-year treasury 10-year treasury sitting right now at about 3.04 when we were last at this level in 2018 in about may of 2018 what happened mortgage rates capped out at about five and a half percent this is roughly where we sit right now mortgage rates at five and a half percent ten-year treasury is just above three percent we expect this to stay connected that is if we see the 10-year treasury yield go to say 3.25 or 3.5 percent will probably start hitting the range of 6 to 6.25 in mortgage rates and remember every percent that mortgage rates go up real estate purchasing power goes down by 10 so substantial move especially since rates have already gone from about 2.5 to 5.5 that's already a 30 decline in purchasing power we go to six and a half there'll be another 10 decline in purchasing power but anyway so we tracked this 10-year treasury and so what we want to know is how much higher do we think the 10-year treasury is going to go in a fed quantitative tightening cycle and to get an answer on this is very very difficult but we have an estimate and it comes from the atlanta fed take a look at this document right here this is a printout from the atlanta fed and uh we we get sort of i'm just gonna give you the bottom lines here because this is a pretty difficult read but anyway we got some bottom lines that if we get secular stagnation that is we see a stagnating economy while at the same time we have high inflation the fed's going to find it very difficult to figure out exactly where to keep rates and in the short term we could see rates and the 10-year move higher but in the long term we think that federal reserve rates could once again go back to zero that long term in my opinion probably gonna be somewhere around 2024 2025 where we see the fed go back to a zero percent lower bound on the fed funds rate that'll bring this 10-year treasury back down right so that's nice that's good opium for the long term you know 2024 2025.
but what is the tightening cycle now going to do well we hop on over here and the expectation at least from the federal reserve panelists is that quantitative tightening right here in pink will likely have a moderate effect on market rates perhaps raising the 10-year treasury yield by somewhere between 25 to 30 basis points so going back to here that means the quantitative tightening cycle alone which is just beginning just started june 1 is pretty much guaranteed to give us 3.25 10-year treasury yields but if we get a miss on this and this panelist is wrong and the tightening cycle actually has a larger impact it wouldn't be shocking to see a 3.5 to 3.75 so we're definitely going to get some more headwinds here in the 10-year treasuries which once again translates to mortgages which once again translates to purchase demand mortgage volume for refinancing less money flowing into the economy for stocks and purchasing more deflationary pressures less demand for lumber and that potential slowdown in real estate prices now what are consumer expectations as in terms of where do consumers think mortgage rates are going to go and when when do we think that we're going to have a potential bottom of the market and then the recovery right so let's talk about that but what i would do want to do is mention that if we end up getting any kind of reduction in prices in real estate or real estate prices end up softening we go flat for let's say six months to a year and then we kind of start you turning back up either way in my opinion because real estate is certainly one way that most people end up 10xing their net worth you might want to check out the programs on real estate that i have there's a link down below for coupon 50 off we've got a program on real estate agents and sales do-it-yourself property management or rental renovations you don't have to hire a property manager if you don't want to zero to millionaire real estate investing to help you identify those deals whether it's multi-family single family you name it commercial real estate anything these principles are designed to save you money especially with our partnership with lowe's that gets you special discounts at lowe's but also if you end up wanting to buy these programs and you get you can use bundle three and get fifty percent off on bundle three that gives you some additional special pricing here but if you also get the sales course and you watch this video send me an email at kevin kevin.com and we'll get you a 150 bonus after you check out so if you buy bundle three and you get the agent course send us an email afterwards and we'll shoot you an extra 150 back okay so what do we got to talk about here consumer expectations for inflation so this is a little scary because this doesn't really align with my thesis that we could end up having some kind of federal reserve u-turn by 2024 which would generally align with the idea that hey if the fed drops rates again we get the 10-year treasury to come back down and then maybe we see the housing market kind of continue on its way of what we've seen which is nice home price appreciation right well the problem here is that consumers are expecting that by 2025 we're actually going to have mortgage rates of 8.2 fact check that google it okay consumer expectation mortgage rates by 2025 type that into google type in 8.2 percent you'll get endless articles on this and it's quite remarkable that the course that we have here for the 10-year treasury would really only be consistent with about six to 6.25 mortgage rates but there's so much fear in the market that mortgage expectations are that we could see rates as high as 8.2 percent now ironically and this echoes what mr schiller said yesterday ironically that could actually lead to some temporary buying of individuals wanting to get into homes and rush into homes around this five and a half percent mortgage rate where people are paying about half of a point right now to get this kind of mortgage rate which is pretty expensive already uh and and if people are buying now we could see a temporary kind of buying at peak if these folks lose their jobs we could end up having problems especially uh if prices do end up falling or we even trend to the sixes or even seven percent mortgage rates that'd be incredible 8.2 by 2025 this implies that we could end up because real estate lags right we get 8.2 mortgage rates in 2025 this implies that we could be in for four to five years of pain or flatness mixed in there for real estate that's pretty substantial though if that is true which i really think we're probably only going to be in for about maybe two years of pain right so this is the kevin estimate and this is sort of the consumer sentiment estimate based on mortgage expectations here either way if we have this kind of pain in the real estate market either way there'll be some big buying opportunities that we want to take advantage of and that's why you want to make sure to get 50 off uh while you check out as well but another thing that i want to show which i think will be very interesting is uh we've got this forecast here from the financial times on screen now and this is the financial times present forecast on home price growth if you look at the bottom right you can see that for the eurozone and the united states they're not actually forecasting a decline in prices so even though we have all of this data right here that's pointing to a definite slowdown in real estate and my expectations that we're going to see some form of a decline in prices my base case scenario is 10 to 15 percent of declines in home prices off of peak and a potentially worst case we could go to 20 to 30 percent declines but if we go back to this chart here we can see that the financial times isn't actually expecting any kind of home price negativity yet now i actually think this could be dangerous because if i go to the next slide that i have here we already see and we talked about this yesterday as well we see inventory levels shifting in just the last six weeks with any area in blue seeing uh in light blue somewhere between zero and twenty percent inventory increases well over zero percent obviously to have any color to it otherwise it'd be gray uh and then in the darkest blue sections we get anywhere between a twenty to fifty percent increase in inventory levels uh and some of these red areas here are actually still seeing decreases in inventory but you can see you've got parts of florida over here you've got parts of the rocky mountain area here we've got california and so what's fascinating to me is that you can have economists suggesting oh don't worry everything's fine there's no housing bubble yet data's pointing to the potential for declines so this is another concern that i have is what happens when we actually start getting this when we actually start getting home price declines what happens in that case is there a potential for individuals to panic especially as mainstream media starts going hey look what happened everybody look what's going on and so this is why i think we want to be as prepared as possible that's why i keep saying now is the best time to start learning remember zero to millionaire four identifying deals and understanding real estate getting started once you're in guides on spend money on this not that save thousands to tens of thousands of dollars this is an investment into yourself here and then of course if you're a real estate agent learn all of the tactics that i've used to sell real estate better good luck
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