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다듬은 글
Hello friends Berkshire halfway held recently its annual shareholder meeting and Warren Buffett always says some interesting things during those meetings but sometimes it is even more interesting when we analyze what he's trying not to say and this year he really wasn't very good at hiding that he is preparing for a crash for some sort of big meaningful change in the economy and the markets and he touched on this subject a number of times first when he was asked about owning the biggest amount of cash ever and not deploying it for Investments uh this question is from Johan Halen who writes you're sitting on 168 billion of cash which you told us today is now more than $182 billion his questions are one what is Buffett waiting for and two why not at least deploy some of it well I think that's pretty easy to answer if I I don't think anybody sitting at this table has has any idea of how to use it effectively and therefore we don't we don't use it and we don't use it now at 5.4% but we wouldn't use it if it if it was at 1% um don't tell um the Federal Reserve that but but prefer it but the uh uh if we had 10 billion uh we wouldn't I wouldn't basically see I don't many more opportunities than we found now it's true that something like Japan we could have done that uh you know it isn't like I'm got a hunger strike or something like that going on uh it's just that they things aren't attractive and uh and there's well there certain ways that can change and we'll see whether they do so he likes the fact that he can get around 5% from treasury bonds that is basically 5% risk-free return so really not bad but he also points out that it is not a real reason for Gathering cash because he would prefer to have a lot of cash around even if he would only get 1% from it so there has to be another reason well he says that he can't find good things to put his money into so basically he thinks that the prices are too high right now it doesn't make sense to him to buy companies when they cost so much now that reason for Gathering cash seems important but that is not all when Warren was asked why he he sold a substantial portion of his Apple shares he mentioned a few things that could help us understand his outlook on the future given what you mentioned there was some news that came out in the 10q this morning it shows that Burkshire sold another 115 million shares of Apple in this last quarter that's berkshire's largest holding and I think in that vein we'll start with a question from Sherman lamb he is a 27-year-old Berkshire hathway Class B shareholder uh from Malaysia and he asks um last year you mentioned Coca-Cola and American Express being berkshire's two long duration partial ownership positions and you spent some time talking about the virtue virtues of both these wonderful businesses in your recent shareholder letter I noticed that you have excluded Apple from this group of businesses have you or your investment manager views of the economics of Apple's business or its attractiveness as an investment changed since Berkshire first invested in 2016 uh no I would the but we have so shares and uh I would say that at the end of the year I would think it extremely likely that we will have apple as our largest investment uh but I don't mind at all under current conditions building uh the uh cash position I think uh when I look at the alternative of what's available in the equity markets and I look at the composition of what's going on in the world uh uh we find quite attractive and one one thing that may surprise you but uh uh we almost everybody I know pays a lot more attention uh to not paying taxes uh uh then I think they should uh uh uh it we we we we don't mind paying taxes at Berkshire and we are paying a 21% federal rate and the gains were're taking in in uh apple and uh that rate was 35% not that long ago and it's been 52% in the in the past uh when I've been operating and uh it uh the government owns the federal government owns a part of the earnings of the business we make they don't own the assets but they own a percentage of the earnings and uh uh they can change that percentage any year and the percentage that they've decreed currently is 21% and I would say with the present fiscal policies uh I think that something has to give and I think that the higher taxes are are quite likely and uh the government wants to take a greater share of your income or mine or burkers uh they can do it and uh uh they may decide that someday they don't want the fiscal deficit to be this large because that has some important consequences and they may not want to decrease spending a lot and they may decide they'll take a larger percentage of what we earn and we'll pay it and we always hope at Berkshire to pay substantial federal income taxes I would really hope with all America's done for all of you shouldn't bother you that we do it and if if I'm doing it at 21% this year and we're doing it at a higher percentage later on I don't think you'll actually mind the the fact that uh we sold a little appple this year I believe it is so important to point out that he said that taking into account the current condition of the market he does not find a huge pile of cash lying around so he's waiting for the conditions to change he is waiting for prices to go down he also said that he believes that it is possible that the taxes will go up so he decided to sell some stock of Apple not only to get cash while the prices are high but also to avoid future increased taxes well I don't really buy this explanation it may be true but there is more to it first he says that he wants to pay higher taxes but then he says that he sold Apple to avoid higher taxes that does not seem logical that is why I believe it is super important to read between the lines during those meetings because there is more than meets the eye he also points out many times that he does not believe in timing the market and he does not concentrate on macroeconomics but in this case he is predicting tax rates and he clearly states that considering what is happening in the world and on the markets he prefers to have cash and okay 5% risk-free return is nice maybe the taxes will go up and that is okay but there is something missing here well I believe the answer is in the next clip I think that when you're handling the sums that we will have you've got to think very strategically about how to do very big things uh and I think Greg is capable of doing that I think I've missed a lot of stuff in the past uh so I'm actually wiser about doing that now uh but I uh you know I would do it better this time around than 2008 and N if something akin to that happened but uh it won't be exactly like 2008 or n you can be sure of that but you also can say that there will be times when uh having huge sums available extremely quickly maybe it'll be once every 5 years maybe it'll probably be more like once every 10 years or something but the way as the world gets more sophisticated complicated and and intertwined uh more can go wrong and uh uh and there no sense going through here exploring the possibilities of the different things that could happen but you we do want to be able to act when it happens and I think the chief executive should some be somebody that can weigh buying businesses buying stocks doing all kinds of things that might come up at a time when nobody else is willing to uh move it wasn't that people didn't money in 2008 it's it's that they were they were paralyzed and uh and we did have the advantage of having some capital and and a willingness to uh an eagerness even to act uh and a government that that in effect looked at as as us as an asset instead of a liability and I think that all of those qualities will be even more important uh as our Capital pile grows and so I think uh Greg may have even more fun than I had uh in in a period when uh extraordinary things were happening and and we were the logical place to go um it uh you never know whether it'll be next week next year next decade but you won't be you know be it won't be a century from now that is for sure so we see very clearly that Warren and Berkshire is preparing for a crisis that could be similar to 2008 they want to have as much cash as possible because when the prices will go down he will be like a child in a candy store with a wallet full of cash when there is panic the stocks go on sale and people with cash and will to act can make a lot of money and that is exactly the moment for berer to act because then they can really move the needle and invest all those billions of dollars and because he knows it is impossible to predict the future he points out that the crash May come in a week a year or a decade but he is sure that it will come because crashes always eventually come after the stock prices are too high for a long period of time and Burkshire is going to be ready but how should we build our wealth in such times well first of all we should probably think a bit about what the best investor in history is saying and doing and maybe as Mish po would say cloning his actions could be a smart move but actually during the shareholder meeting there was a question that focused exactly at that point towards the end of 2018 you mentioned that you guarantee you could make a 50% annual return if you had to start again with under $1 million the question is if tomorrow you woke up in the body of of of P body P body but that's fine and your name was now Warren alakat and you had some money to invest on a full-time basis what method or methods would you use to achieve that return would it involve flipping through 20,000 pages of Moody's manual or similar Publications or finding you you know to find STI butts or would it be hunting for great companies at a fair price as Mr mungle wood or would it be a combination of both to answer your question uh I would I would I I don't know what the equivalent of moodies manuals or anything would be now but I would I would try know everything about everything small and I would find something and with a million dollars you could earn 50% a year but you have to be in love with the subject uh you can't just be in love with the money you really got to just find it like a you know essentially like you know people find other things in other fields cuz they just love looking for a a biologist looks for something because they they want to find something they and that's build I I don't know how the human brain works that much and I don't think anybody understands too well how the human brain works but but there's different people that that uh just find it exciting to expand their knowledge in a given area we uh you know I know Great British players I know great chess players actually uh Kasparov came to all and met Mrs B I've had the luck of of meeting a lot of people that are unbelievably SM SM in their own Arena and do some unbelievably dumb things in other areas so all I know is the human brain is complicated and but it does its best when you find out what your brain is really suited for and then you just uh pound the hell out of from that point and that's what I would be doing if I if I had a small amount of money and I wanted to make 50% a year but I also wanted to just play the game and you can't do it if you really if you don't find the the game of Interest whether it's Bridge or whether you know whatever it may be chess or there case finding Securities that are undervalued but it sounds to me like you're on the right track I mean anybody will come all the way to this annual meeting got something in their mind other than Bridge or chess uh so I'm glad you came and come again next year I like that advice a lot because he's not only saying study businesses understand industry expand your knowledge so all the things we are trying to do here on this channel but also he touches on a very important point that we must enjoy the game that it should not be about the money but about the game of investing about challenging ourselves and finding fulfillment that way money is more like a score of this game and if we play because we love the game we have a bigger chance of getting a better score in the long term well I think it is only fair that Warren should end this video just in case you know what my advice to myself would be has been during this period so we only got 30 what three questions or whatever it is but thank you very very much for coming and I not only hope that you come next year but I hope I come next year you
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