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Jamie Diamond gives us a major stock market warning and we see gold finally getting a reversal off those highs with a nice bearish engulfing candle. Is this the start of a correction or are we about to make new all-time highs tomorrow? When we come over look at how the indices spread across the board.
The Dow was down 243 points. The Nasdaq was down 18 points. S&P 500 down 18 points with the Russell 2000 being down 1.59. Now we look at advanced versus declining. We had 64.3% of issues declining on the day. Then as we come over look the sectors across the board. Notice there was only one sector in the green that was consumer defensives.
Every other sector was in the red. Even technology was not able to ek out a small gain for the day. Now if we come over we look at the heat map real quick. Notice once again the AI leader out there Nvidia was able to make new all-time highs. Apple down, Meta was up. And we look at the Mac 7 stocks. only Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon were in the green.
All the other Mag 7 stocks were in the red. Now, when we look at the fear and greeting index right now, we're sitting at 49. So, we are a little bit closer to fear than we are to agreed by one little point. However, if we come over look at the most recent investor sentiment survey, we can see the bulls stepped up once again with a reading of 45.9.
The neutral category also creeped up a little bit and the bears dropped down from 39.2 to 35.6. 6. Now we look at the dollar index. Dollar index had a rocket of a day out there. Nice strong bullish candle on the way up. Also look at the MACD indicator looking very strong at this moment in time. Then we come over look at the 10-year yield.
Again, we're having a hard time getting past this resistance line. However, will this next time be different? And if we do see the 10-year yield getting above 4.18, that is going to be another headwind out here for the stock market. Then we come over, look at the precious metal gold. gold today getting in a nasty one two reversal.
We see the MACD indicator is most certainly elevated at these levels. Yesterday I shared with you guys and showed you guys the MACD indicator has never ever in history been as high as it is right now. So it's really no surprise that we're starting to see a little bit of a correction. Now if we look at this on the 30-inut chart, notice look at where the large candles were today.
Big candle when the market started going down. Then we consolidate another big candle on the way down. Now, if we go ahead and we look at this on the 4 hour chart, notice the MACD indicator is already crossed to the downside at this moment. And where is the next high volume area? Well, it's right down here at 3891.6.
However, one of the areas I'm watching is this prior breakout point at about 3922. And we can actually round that up a little bit higher to about 3943. If we go ahead and we zone this out, we can see we have a minus development area all within this area on the chart. And we'll see when we come down there.
Does gold go ahead and try to bounce on the way back up? Whenever we first hit a minus development area, we expect one of two things to normally occur. Either the market gets a little bit of a bounce back out or the market will consolidate through that areas. In the rare instances, we will slice right down through that price point.
Jamie Diamond gave us a warning this morning. But first, let's talk about this. UBS fund holds 30% exposure linked to first brands. And they're saying right here, the Switzerland bank has multiple investments tied to bankrupt auto part maker. Then we look at the Wall Street Journal real quick. First brand's bankruptcy damages spread to Jeffre is what UBS says.
Now we need to worry about this. Is this going to be a contagion issue? We already seen a few weeks back where a major auto lender already went bankrupt. We're all now we're seeing parts for automotive manufacturers now also having problems out there. Then we come over and see what Jamie Demon has to say.
Jamie Diamond says he's far more worried than others about stock market decline. And basically, if you go through and read that article, Jamie Diamond says where most people see a potential 10% correction sometime in the future, think more in terms of maybe a 20 or even 30% correction in the market.
If we come over and look at the SPY today, SPY, we have a little bit of a wick on the bottom of this candle. Yes, we made a new all-time high. So, if you guys are tracking the Fibonacci retracement, we still need to go ahead and continue to move the Fibonacci retracement on the way up. Why? Because we have not got that turned down just yet.
You can see today we closed lower than the prior day's close. But notice we did not close below the low of the prior day. So, take that with a grain of salt when you're thinking today was a big nasty down day out here. Keep in mind today we are unable to get the weekly unemployment claims because the government is still shut down.
And then tomorrow, we can see that we get the preliminary consumer sentiment, preliminary inflation expectations set to come out tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. So, will that be enough to push the markets back up to new all-time highs tomorrow, or are we going to finally start coming down towards some of these Fibonacci retracement levels?
Keep in mind, the 38% retracements at 666.48. The 50% level is about 664.18. And then we have the 61.8 level at 661.89. Now, if we dive down, start looking at the 4hour chart, you can see we have a little bearish engulfing candle right here. MACD the indicator is crossed to the downside at this moment.
Then we dive down, start looking at the 30-inut chart. We got to be careful just like we warned about two days ago when the MACD indicator was down here. Once it gets below the zero line, you see it starting to flatten out and in this case actually starting to curl up here just a bit. This could be a warning sign that we're about to pop back up or are we about to see the market come back down?
Because we also got to be mindful if price stays out these lower levels. The MACD indicator gets back towards the zero line. Watch out. That could be nothing more than a recharge point for another leg lower. Then we look at the volume profile. Where was the most where is most of the volume built out today at the lower end of the range, which we can look at twofold.
One, if we can get back above the upper part of this distribution, then we're probably going all the way back to all-time highs, similar to what we saw right over here on this day. We had a lowercase B. Once we were able to break out above that, in this case, we gapped up, it was off to the races. So, we'll have to wait and see how this actually ends up playing out.
Now, I want to make everybody aware right now, Trade Advis. Take advantage of this offer. Use the link in the description box down below. Use code Mike at checkout. Now, when we come over, look at the futures markets real quick. What do we have going back on? Well, look at the range this week for the S&P.
So far, we only have one more trading day out there, and we've only had a 65 point range from the low to the high for the whole entire week. That is very, very pathetic. And also notice we are now currently below the prior week's value area high, which sets the stage that we were likely going to test the point of control, which we did today.
Now, the question is, can we go a little bit lower towards this next high volume area and all the way down here towards value area low? We come over look at the 30-minute profiles real quick on the daily chart. Notice this morning we had this peak point and this was a critical level. I thought we had a very good chance of coming down hitting the P point potentially even going lower.
Now, now what gave me more conviction was when we come over look at bookmap. Look at all the liquidity we have lined up below price as opposed to what do we have above price. We don't have all the red lines. The horizontal lines are showing us where the big orders are resting in the market. Now notice those big orders start from 67.95 and go all the way down here to about 67.84.
Now if we go back and we look at where that peak point was, it came in right here at 67.89. So I thought that one this was a high probability being tested as it gets tested roughly 68 to 70% of time on a daily basis and the fact that we had those large orders resting below us that the market was likely going to go down there and try to fulfill those orders.
Now today we barely missed hitting that untested point of control 6758. Now as we look at the point of control from today notice we are now sitting right there where the point of control is roughly 6778. Now here's how I want to play this. If we start breaking very low I want to look to target the point of control at 6758.
We breach that then I really want to turn my attentions back over here to the 4our chart. I then want to turn my attention towards the candle bodies to the candle wicks. That's going to be anywhere from 6752 down here to about 6746. Once we break those levels, then I want to turn my attentions all the way down to here.
Now, depending on how you want to look at this, we can also treat this as a double topish type of pattern. Now, if that is going to play out, we got to break the swing point right down here. And the pattern completion would be all the way down here at 66.83. And then notice as we look right, what do we have?
We have a minus development area within the composite profile which also increases the probabilities that this will act as a magnet attracting price down there. And no, I'm not saying tomorrow. Probably over multiple days before we would make it down towards that price point. Now, when we come over, look at the QQQ's real quick.
This is a trend line that I think I shared with you guys in yesterday's video. Notice we have still been unable to break below that price point as we came up and made a new all-time high. What do we see out here? Well, the MACD the indicator is still right there where it prior where it previously was even though the market has went up substantially higher.
We have not been able to break this trend line just yet. So, if you're thinking the market has to crash, hold up. Let's take it one day at a time. But today, we did form a hammer candle in the context of an uptrend. So, this could be a hanging man candle, which is the weakest of all reversal patterns out here.
On the 4hour chart, what do we got going on? We got that same trend line. Still has not broken it. MACD indicator huge divergence on the MACD indicator but then on the 30-inut chart notice we kind of have a DS and dog shape profile we had a much smaller range today now that is not really all that surprising given the fact that yesterday was pretty much a trend day and if you look the NASDAQ did not close that far away from the session highs so now we got to ask ourself is this just an upper level consolidation that's getting ready to bust and run and make new all-time highs.
Well here's how I want to play this. If we are trading below value area high tomorrow, then I want to look to target down here towards valueary low and then the low from the day and then potentially coming down and fill in the gap that was left behind from yesterday. But in the event we're trading above value high, hold your breath.
We're probably going to make a new all-time high in this market. Notice the MACD indicator never made it down below the zero line and is trying to cross on the way back up. Now, as we come over, look at the NASDAQ futures real quick. Notice the entire range this week has only been about 409 points. Now, currently, we are still well above last week's value high.
And I'm really surprised at this point, we have not been able to come back and test either of these untested pointed controls. So, it's going to be interesting to see tomorrow, do we end up with three consecutive untested pointed controls down below us? Now, if we look at this, I don't really have a huge edge or any huge targets to really pay attention to, unless we break high, and then we can simply say, "All right, hold our breath and see if we can run to new all-time highs in this market." Now, we come over here and look at the 30-inut chart.
Previously, while we're on the live stream today, if you guys don't want to miss that next time I go live, make sure you subscribe, you have the bell notifications turned on for all, but we had a minus development area right up in this area, which we can't see now because the markets come back up into it and kind of filled it out here just a bit.
But we also had a structure breakdown point that the market now has made it all the way back up and tested. Now the question is, do we turn back down from that area? Because if we were to pull a Fibonacci retracement from that swing high down to the swing low, notice the 786 is right above it. If we get above the 786, it increases the probabilities.
We're going all the way up here to 25,341. We start breaking that, we're probably going to make a run to new all-time highs in this market. Now notice right now we're trading right right around value area high. If we start breaking back down below that price point. I want to target the point of control at 28,265.0.
We breach that. I then want to target down here towards value area low. Anything below value area low. I would want to turn my attentions back over here. See if we can hit the weekly value low which is developing at 25,121 and then back down here towards the lows of the week. Keep in mind, we gapped up this week and we still have not been able to come all the way back down fill in that gap.
Now, if we do look at this, if the market does indeed want to turn up from this point on, there is one more pattern that we can go ahead and draw out, and that would be an A to B equals CD pattern right up here to the upside, giving us a price target of 25,570.27. Now, if you guys are still wondering, is take profit trader the number one prop firm out there? You want to make sure to check out this next video right
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