Huge News for Tesla Stock Investors | TSLA Stock Analysis

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테슬라 2024년 3분기 생산·인도량(생산 46.9만대, 인도 46.2만대)은 전년 대비 소폭 증가했으나 시장 기대에 못 미쳤다. 사이버트럭 판매는 약 6천대로 부진하며 가격 인하와 저금리 금융으로 판촉 중이고 재고 일수도 늘었다. 테슬라 선행 PER 77배는 엔비디아·마이크로소프트 대비 과도하게 높아 고평가로 판단하며 본인은 숏 포지션(2026년 12월 만기 풋옵션)을 보유 중이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. all right we got some big news for Tesla stock investors as the company reported its third quarter 2024 production and delivery numbers there was some good in this report and some bad in the report overall investors looked at this negatively and the stock prices down more than 3 and a half% following this announcement so I'll go over the details of these latest figures and answer what it could mean for Tesln the third quarter of 2024 Tesla said it delivered 462,000 these delivery numbers were above what they were in the same quarter last year in 2023 in the third quarter the company produced 430,000 and delivered 435,000 vehicles in the same time last year and so this year they delivered roughly 27,000 more Vehicles than they did last year that was part of the good news that was something good for Tesla stock investors however when you compare last year last last year in the third quarter they had some production downtime and so you're comparing with a quarter that had production downtime and so by barely beating it with 27,000 units investors were a little disappointed by the magnitude of the beat they were expecting something better given that the comparison with the same quarter last year was a favorable comparison also in the third quarter this year Tesla had the Tesla cyber Truck Sales which it didn't have last year so even with the Tesla cyber truck sales and even with comparing with the quarter last year that had lower production it still barely beat the numbers from last year those are some of the reasons why investors are disappointed secondly when you look at other models here Tesla says it delivered I look at this as a proxy for how Tesla cybertruck sales are going and if you look at the 22915 number and you compare with last year 15,980 that's also barely up right 6,000 unit increase year-over-year when you're including Tesla cyber Truck Sales into the snx models as well so if you just look at it on the surface it seems like Tesla sold roughly 6,000 cyber trucks in the quarter which is disappointing in my opinion I would have thought Tesla cyber Truck Sales would be doing better by this point it's the third quarter of 2024 now and yes they're only selling the model that's you know roughly $100,000 but still you would think that the Cyber Truck Sales would be doing better by now it looks like the model the market is not liking that car at that price so in investors will have to look forward to the lower priced versions of the cybertruck to hopefully boost sales of that car otherwise it's going to be a major disappointment Tesla for years spent lots of dollars building up research and development creating this vehicle and if it's only going to sell 6,000 units every quarter that's extremely disappointing Elon Musk talked about how at scale it hopes to deliver 250,000 cyber trucks annually that's at like the full level right so it's nowhere near that point yet and the ramp has gone extremely slowly as I mentioned in the introduction of the video investors did not like the initial report the stock price was down over 5% on the announcement it's now recovered and it's now down a little over 3 and 1 12% following the news full disclosure I I am short Tesla stock I have put options that expire December of 2026 the primary reason for those is because I feel Tesla stock is overvalued I think Tesla is the best EV company however I don't like EV companies overall and so Tesla being so expensive I feel the valuation should come down although it may never come down because investors are seemingly willing to pay these premium prices for Tesla stock because for whatever reason they feel Tesla is going to be the next Tech Giant in the world now if I show you the valuations even if you look at Tesla as a tech stock I've got Tesla compared to some of the largest tech companies in the world including Nvidia and Microsoft and Tesla 77 which is more than twice the valuation of Nvidia and Microsoft at 29 and 27 respectively and then if you compare Tesla to other car companies like Ford and GM Tesla is more than 15 times as expensive as those 5.4 and 4.6 respectively for Ford and GM so regardless of how you view Tesla stock whether as a tech company or a car company the stock is overvalued in my opinion and that's why I'm short Tesla stock now I will admit Tesla is the best EV company the one of the only EV companies that can generate sales with positive profit margins but still I feel it's overvalued now going back to the concern about inventory I mentioned that they have 469,000 units produced and 462,000 deliveries if you look at their latest quarterly report they highlighted that they had 18 days of inventory on hand at the end of the second quarter that number of days will likely increase now this second quarter 2024 number of 18 days outstanding was above the 2 quarter 20 2023 number of 16 days outstanding of inventory in the current quarter Tesla's average selling price was likely much lower than last year's third quarter average selling price because of all the price cutting Tesla has done also Tesla's offering very attractive uh interest rates so that's another incentive Tesla is offering to car buyers and yet car sales are not doing as well as expected Tesla is losing market share in the United States its primary Market as newer models are coming out almost every day and Legacy car companies are coming out with their electric vehicles models but overall market demand for EVS is way lower than was anticipated I think the EV Market got ahead of themselves in 2020 and 2021 because of supply chain shortages to Legacy automakers and car buyers going out looking for a car to buy couldn't find internal combustion engine vehicles to buy so they were buying EVS because they were available but now that supply chain constraints are pretty much over with and consumers can find whatever car they're looking for more often they're not actually more n times out of 10 they're choosing an internal combustion engine vehicle or a hybrid vehicle but not an electric vehicle and so that's not been great news for the industry overall still it was impressive that Tesla delivered growth year-over-year 435,000 units delivered in the same quarter last year and now 462,000 units delivered in the third quarter of 2024 overall I think that was good news for Tesla stock investors and the next thing to look forward to is Tesla's Robo taxi event and then the actual profit and loss numbers from these third quarter results