저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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마이크론의 사이클 저점은 지났고, PC·모바일 교체 주기와 AI PC 수요, 자동차 DRAM 수요 증가로 2025년 성장이 기대된다. 2024~2025년 DRAM·NAND 수요 성장률 14~16%, 공급은 2022년 수준 이하로 제한되어 가격과 수익성이 개선될 전망. 2025년 설비투자는 매출의 약 35% 수준으로 증가하나 현금흐름으로 감당 가능하다고 주장.
다듬은 글
There is now increasing evidence that the lowest point of the cycle for Micron Technology is behind us. Looking ahead, their prospects appear excellent, and in their recently concluded quarter, the company's revenue and profitability soared. In this video, I wanted to highlight a couple of markets where Micron is seeing growing demand, including the PC market, the computer market, and the mobile device market.
Then I wanted to move on to their outlook for the next fiscal year and what they hope to offer investors in fiscal year 2025. kev to see the top 10 stocks to buy now. That's how it is. Micron says PC unit volumes are still on track to grow in the low single digits through 2024, but they expect unit growth to continue into 2025 and accelerate in the second half of calendar year 2025 as the PC cycle gains momentum with the rollout of new AI-powered PCs, the end of support for Windows 10, and the launch of Windows 12.
I've been talking about this for several quarters. How the personal computer market is about to enter possibly the strongest replacement cycle in its history due to these factors. The new AI-powered PCs, the end of support for Windows 10, and the large number of computers purchased in 2020 and 2021 when people were working, studying, and entertaining themselves from home, etc.
Those computers are entering the phase where they need to be replaced. TRUE? An average computer lasts four to six years. And depending on its use, you can use it for more or less time. If you use it more intensively, then use it for a shorter period. If you use it less intensively, only for browsing the internet and answering emails, you can use it for longer.
But it is entering the phase where those four- to six-year-old computers that were purchased in 2020-2021 face a major replacement cycle, and Micron expects accelerated growth in this market toward the second half of next year. In addition to that, AI-powered PCs require greater memory and storage capacity.
Therefore, not only will more PC units be purchased , but each unit will need more storage and more memory. That will drive greater demand for Micron Technology's products due to the increased number of components in each computer. The average gigabytes of DRAM in computers in 2024 was around 12 GB of DRAM.
But in these new AI PCs, the minimum will be 16 GB of DRAM. And if you want better performance, you need more gigabytes of DRAM to get better performance from those personal computers. So that's driving robust demand for Micron next year and the year after. It's a similar story for mobile devices. Smartphone unit volume in 2024 is on track to grow by low to mid-single digits, and that growth is expected to continue in 2025.
Recently, major Android phone manufacturers have announced AI-powered phones with 12 to 16 gigabytes of DRAM, up from an average of 8 GB in last year's flagship phones. So it's a similar story, isn't it? We are going through that replacement cycle. And that replacement cycle will not only increase the volume of units sold, but will also grow because each individual unit needs better internal components, more gigabytes of DRAM, and more storage than the previous year.
Because now, these phones will be enabled with artificial intelligence , which requires more gigabytes of DRAM to use all those features . That is another characteristic for Micron Technology, similar to the personal computer market, where these markets are generally mostly saturated. True, we're not seeing a huge increase in new customers in the aforementioned categories, mobile and PC, but what we are seeing is that current customers are upgrading: the upgrade cycle, the replacement cycle, and an AI- powered replacement cycle .
The automotive market is also interesting; Infotainment systems and advanced driver assistance systems are driving long-term growth in memory and storage . For the fourth consecutive year, Micron achieved a fiscal record for automotive revenue in 2024. Now, this is for optimists who expect Tesla, for example, to deliver self-driving technology, or for several of these automotive companies to offer such technology or gradually improve their driver assistance systems.
. So, instead of trying to pick which automaker will win in autonomous driving technology, you can opt for component companies like Micron, which will benefit from the growth of cars equipped with more driver assistance technology. Even if it's not fully autonomous technology, if it's just parking assistance, enhanced emergency braking assistance , or more lane assistance , lane changing, or any other assistance function, companies like Micron will benefit.
And we're starting to see data. Now, this is in very early stages, but I'm starting to see data where these driver assistance systems, especially emergency braking and other systems, are helping to improve safety. And that is truly a great advantage: the safety improvements that come from these assisted driving systems.
Not only can you take a nap while the car is driving you, but there's also increased safety thanks to these advanced driver assistance systems . I think that's really going to drive growth in this industry. As you know, a customer might say, "If I buy this car that has this ADAS system, my insurance premium is lower, so it makes sense to buy this car with this system installed because it will reduce the cost of my insurance," and of course it's safer, so from the start I want to be in a safer vehicle.
So that will drive growth for both Micron and the industry. Looking ahead, the market outlook for VRAM industry demand in 2024 has improved, driven by the strength of data center servers , and growth in other market segments has been consistent with Micron's previous feedback. What they expected in 2024 was a certain amount of demand for the DRAM market.
That's better than expected. That 's turning out better than expected because the data center server segment is exceeding expectations far more than they thought. So that's driving an improved outlook for 2024 for Micron Technologies' DRAM prospects . And for the growth in demand for NAND bits or storage, they expect growth in the mid-second decade, between 14%, 15% or 16% in storage .
And in 2025 they expect that the growth of both DRAM, which is memory, and NAND, which is storage, will be around the range of the second decade. That's really great news for Micron. They expect a 14, 15, 16% growth in demand for memory and storage. That applies to the entire market. And if the entire market is growing at that robust rate, then Micron will grow as a result of the market growth.
As long as they don't lose market share, which they are not doing; They predict an increase in their market share. Therefore, their revenue and profitability forecasts are increasing for 2025 because the market is growing at a double- digit rate and Micron expects to gain market share. So you can start to see why they're so optimistic about 2025.
And then the other side of the equation also looks good for them, the supply side. Due to some capital expenditure and supply reduction actions taken across the industry in 2023, storage and memory capacity in 2024 is expected to be below 2022 levels. So supply is below 2022 levels, but demand is much higher.
And there you have that dynamic, if you remember from Economics 101, supply and demand. When demand increases and supply decreases, it means the price increases, and Micron is the one who collects that price. So that's excellent news for Micron. They also expect a healthy level of supply for storage in 2025, and Micron says they will moderate capital investment over time to align supply with demand, and that will reduce investments in research and development and capital intensity in long-term storage.
This is good news, because capital investments have been a concern for many investors and will be considerable even in 2025. The company says it spent $8 billion on capital expenditures in 2024. In 2025, they expect it to be significantly higher, close to 35% of revenue, due to growth in new plant construction and capital investments in high-bandwidth memory.
The construction of their new facilities in Idaho and New York will support their long-term memory demand outlook and will not contribute to supply in 2025 or 2026. So, at the earliest, they will see supply from the New York and Idaho facilities they are currently building in 2027. Therefore, they do expect to increase their capital expenditures in 2024.
But the good news with Micron, unlike Intel, as I've highlighted, is that Micron's operating cash flow is large enough to support those capital investments and still generate free cash flow. Whereas at Intel, its operating cash flow is so low that capital expenditures don't even come close to covering that level.
Therefore, it's really consuming a lot of cash. That is not the case with Micron. Some investors were concerned about these capital expenditures by Micron. That's why they saw the stock price drop in the middle of this year, due to these large capital expenditures. But I think they are prudent capital expenditures on the part of the management team.
This isn't going too far. This is not going too far. I believe management sees strong demand, as they highlighted for their end markets, and they are investing to capitalize on that demand. Hello over a year, . It is now available. Explain my framework for evaluating actions. Some of you often ask why I like this action or why I like that one.
And this framework gives them the things I look at when I evaluate actions. I've added the link in the description below.
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