저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론이 AI 데이터센터 수요 확대의 수혜를 받고 있다고 분석. 서버 출하 중 AI 서버 성장률이 전통 서버보다 높고, HBM 시장은 2023년 약 40억 달러에서 2025년 250억 달러 이상으로 6배 성장 전망. 마이크론 HBM3E는 경쟁사 대비 소비전력 20% 낮고 DRAM 용량 50% 높다고 주장. HBM 2024·2025년 물량 완판, 데이터센터 스토리지 매출 3배 이상 증가 언급. 발언 중 책 판매 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Micron Technology stock investors got some great news from the management team as they highlighted they are now participating extensively in the booming AI Market the area of the AI Market that's growing by the tens of billions of dollars per year is ssive hyperscalers like Microsoft Amazon web services Google cloud and meta platforms are spending billions and billions of building new data centers that are optimized for artificial intelligence that's where Nvidia is seeing the most substantial growth in its business so companies that are participating in that category are seeing their businesses Thrive so it was great to see Micron beginning to participate in that market let's get more details on its progress in that market from the perspective of Management's eyes in their latest quarterly earnings call I want to thank the mly ful management spent a great deal of time discussing the data center market and its position in the data center Market the company CEO saying that industry server unit shipments are expected to grow in the mid to high singled digigit percentage range in calendar year 2024 driven by strong growth in AI servers as well as low singled digigit percentage growth for traditional servers so you can see here that the growth in the AI server segment is going to be faster than the traditional server segment companies that need to build servers are aiming to build AI servers because they have a lower total cost of ownership than the traditional servers traditional servers as you might already know were CPU based the core of the server was CPUs but the TR with that is that CPU development and Improvement had kind of hit a ceiling it wasn't improving by all that much year over year and over a 5year period or a 10year period however with these newer AI servers optimized for artificial intelligence they are based on gpus and that's the primary product from Nvidia and these GPU based servers are only in the early stages of seeing these improvements these gpus and the AI optimized servers are just getting underway so you can have 5 10 20 maybe 30 years of this category seeing continued Improvement because of innovation right Nvidia saying every year they're going to innovate and offer a new product for the data center and so that's driving these huge investments from those massive companies I highlighted earlier to get these new data centers up because that offers lower total cost of owner ownership these companies they have massive Computing costs billions of dollars for companies like alphabet to process all the Computing that's required to run their business right for all the data streaming for YouTube for all the search queries on Google search they need that computing power and I'm not even talking about their large language models and Ai and products based on AI just their internal workloads from their existing product categories so Micron says we see increasing dram and nand content both in traditional as well as AI servers what that means is these servers are using more RAM and more storage for the newer servers and that's great news for micron right because those are its two primary categories storage and memory and if these servers are using more of that per server that's great news for micron because that's greater demand for micron's products they continue to say that their mix of data center Revenue reached the record level in 2024 and they expect it will grow significantly from here in fiscal year 2025 so not only did it reach a record level for micron in 2024 but from an already record level they expect it to grow significantly from there that's impressive right when you're already at a record level but you expect your next year to be significantly higher than that wow that's going to be two years of phenomenal growth for micron in the data center segment vestors to be sure this was a category that wasn't going to be or it wasn't going to be as robust as is coming out right now 5 years ago Micron wasn't counting on this Market to be such a robust driver of a demand as we stand today Micron is now seeing this new category that's going to add billions of incremental Revenue to the business in 20125 management saying they expect hbm which is high bandwidth memory total available Market to grow from approximately 4 billion in calendar year 2023 to over 25 billion in calendar year 2025 so a 6X increase in this market a 6X increase in this Market where Micron is one of the technology leaders and when this Market grows Micron is going to capture a meaningful market share so as a percentage of overall industry Dam they expect hbm to grow from a percent and a half in 2023 to 6% in calendar year 2025 and that's just two years right it's expected to continue to grow from there but just from here to there that's a 4X increase in the total percentage of market share of overall spending and Micron is leading in this category right there hbm 3E 12 High 36 gbyte product delivers a 20% lower power consumption than the competition and also provides 50% higher dram capacity so lower power consumption and higher dram capacity than the competitors and so of course when someone is deciding which one to purchase Micron is going to be at close to top of the list because their product is so much better than the competitor's product it's going to allow them to have pricing power and it's going to allow them to generate significant demand in a category that's growing so substantially so you can understand why management is saying that they expect their revenue even after a record year in 2024 in this segment they expect it to grow significantly from here so their hbm is sold out for calendar year 2024 and 2025 with pricing already determined for this time frame so for their product is sold out for essentially two years people that want its products are now going to make orders for the year 2026 boy that's a great position to be in when your product is so highly demanded that you're sold out for two years that's rare to see in markets today to have a product that's sold out for two years this is the kind of numbers that Nvidia is reporting being sold out for their latest generation technology so this is just one segment of micron's business overall but it's great to hear for micron investors that this product is so highly demanded that they're sold out for 2024 and 2025 and finally they say they've gained substantial market share in the data center for storage and they achieved quarterly record Revenue with over a billion dollars in data center storage ssds in Q4 and fiscal year 2024 data center storage Revenue more than tripled from a year ago more than tripled from a year ago so needless to say after all of these comments from management I think we all get the picture that Micron is now in full swing benefiting from these massive investments in the data center optimized for AI and it's great news for micron investors to be s
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