저자: TomLee · 외국인
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시장은 갈림길에 있다는 진단. 3월 저점 이후 상승으로 낙관과 불안이 공존하며, 기술주 강세는 순환매(경기민감주) 전환과 충돌하지 않고, 경제 데이터 개선과 현금 유입으로 경기민감주 랠리가 이어질 수 있다는 입장. 코로나 재확산 리스크: IHME 모델상 가을 재확산 가능성 언급. 다만 프랑스·스페인처럼 확진자는 사상 최고치여도 사망자가 적으면 정책 대응이 제한적이므로, 중요한 것은 확진 수보다 중증도. 이스라엘의 재봉쇄 사례와 미국 일부 주의 정책 후퇴 언급. 경기민감주 vs 기술주: 재확산 시 경기민감주(특히 피해가 컸던 에피센터 종목)가 더 타격받을 수 있다는 질문에, 뉴욕·트라이스테이트·플로리다·애리조나에서 대규모 감염 이벤트에도 새 물결이 촉발되지 않은 점을 근거로 상황이 생각보다 나쁘지 않다고 판단. 학교 개학 유지 여부와 뉴욕 실내영업 재개가 핵심 관찰 포인트. 정상화가 예상보다 빠를 수 있다고 봄. 개별 테마: 드래프트킹스(ESPN 독점 파트너십)는 밀레니얼·Z세대의 디지털 생활 방식을 보여주는 사례로 스포츠 베팅 시장이 수년간 기회가 될 것으로 봄. 밀레니얼의 교외 이주로 주택·건설 관련 투자 테마도 여전히 유효하다고 언급. 테슬라: 자동차 비즈니스 모델을 아이폰식으로 바꾼 기업이며 충성도가 높아 저배수 완성차로 취급하면 실수. 저금리로 밸류에이션 부담이 완화되어 있고, 9월 말 이후 세금 매도 손실의 약 절반을 회복. 주가 405달러 이상 수준에서도 보유 관점 유지.
다듬은 글
the big trend today is a strength in the tech space it's something we've been talking about as a rotation back into cyclicals have been discussed here over the last couple weeks especially after that meltdown we saw last week but where do things go from here is today just a head fake from some of these tech names or is it a reversal of that trend and i want to get into that with our next market guest here befundstrats tom lee joins us right now and tom i always love having you on because you kind of called that bottom that we saw back in march but how do you assess what's going on here now with tech again coming off of that brutal week last week um yeah it's and last week was rough i think markets are at a crossroads because we've gained so much since march and the economic data has been better i think the health data has been encouraging because cases are falling but from a market's perspective nothing is really decisive so i think investors are still torn and i think that's why they're still sticking with these tech stocks um but you know i don't think tech needs to roll over for cyclicals to work i think for you know cyclicals to work it really just means investors need to be confident that this the good news on the economy is continuing and then the cash comes off the sidelines and the sentiment which is really bearish turns positive and i think that's what fuels uh the rally into your end and that's kind of the thing that you've been highlighting here too i mean a lot of market watchers have been highlighting that you know the the market moves that we saw earlier in this year had generally gone in the direction of coronavirus cases and we've seen that constantly improving over the last few weeks i'd be curious to know maybe if some of that profit taking in tech might not have been caused by just you know the run-up that we've seen but maybe some investors hedging against the potential risks of cases going in the opposite direction over the next couple months since we've seen that precedent of it triggering a selling wave before how much would how much weight would you put on maybe that playing out here uh i mean i think there's a lot of uncertainty because you know one of the you know models that i think's really quite good is the ihme model healthdata.org and they're projecting you know in the fall to have this massive resurgence in cases part of it's the flu season and part of its back to school you know i don't know the future but if that's the path then then then i'd agree zach like the market should be kind of nervous because we don't know how people are going to react but you know if france and spain are any template they've had cases go to all-time highs but because deaths have been really muted um you know the policymakers haven't really done anything so i think there's you know i guess it depends i mean cases are cases and that's important but but it's really gonna be severity that matters the most yeah on that front i mean we did see israel reinitiate lockdowns again so that did happen and there is precedent there that it could happen again here in the us we've seen states reverse positions certainly too but when we think about the risk reward since that really does seem to get at the heart of where investors should be positioning themselves here now i would suspect that cyclicals would take a harder hit if you do see cases rise again because some of those epicenter stocks as you call them the hardest hit when cases did start to spike here before in 2020 uh you've been advocating for getting back into those but if we did see cases rise up again i feel like they would get hit even harder so talk to me about the risk reward in those names versus some of the other tech names out there well um yeah the most sensitive to like what happens to not only the county but health is going to be the epicenter stocks because they they're so sensitive to directions and also you know they're also sensitive to do a cure or vaccine um i i think what we've already seen that states that have had a lot of cases already like new york tri-state or even florida now in arizona even when you get like super spreader events like back to school happening it's not triggering a new wave of cases so i i think that you know 25 percent the country you know it's not looking so bad right now and i i think the key now to watch is you know whether the schools can stay open and then back to work you know it's just especially new york because new york is so important to sort of how the national you know landscape looks and new york is opening for indoor dining and i think there's more people going back to work so you know normalcy might be sooner than we expect the other question too here and i want to get into some specific names uh when we think about individual storylines playing out too because obviously people getting back to work might be a positive for some tech companies a microsoft or facebook what have you versus a zoom and the run-up that we've seen there but also there seem to be storylines that are playing out completely untied to what happens on the health front and i guess maybe some of those storylines would be tied back to some of these high flyers in 2020 whether you look at uh i guess we'll start with the sports gaming space too here because we're seeing those spikes play out today when draftkings teamed up with espn to be their co-exclusive partner and espn is going to be throwing a lot of traffic to draftkings um i mean i guess that's tied to the pandemic too though every storyline inside the pandemic because we got sports back now we saw it over this weekend but that does seem to be one of those opportunities that's going to exist for years to come since it seems like that was something sports leagues cable providers did not want to touch in sports gaming but now as those attitudes change i mean talk to me about maybe that being an attractive and attractive uh thing for investors to watch well i think it's i think what we're seeing with like draftkings really speaks to a generation the millennials and even gen z because those are native digital cohorts right i mean they grew up with a digital life and now in in this pandemic we're seeing that's our notion either networks or cable sort of get on board with that and i i think that really tells you why you gotta bet with millennials and what they're gonna do and not only are they living a digital life you know they're moving to the suburbs now so housing and housing related is going to be a really important story for many years and actually it's still investible today and then all the infrastructure that goes around building a home so there's a lot of things millennials do that are you know that you're seeing and i think draftking's example the other name out there too i guess on the same theme here would be the ev space and we've seen that with tesla i can't tell you how many millennials i know out there that can afford one i've been all about uh getting an electric car and tesla the main proponent of that that's discussed here and they've recovered about half those losses that we saw in the tax selloff since the end of august here so i guess you know that being another one of those names what do you think about when you look at a tesla and maybe the same idea that it would be something to stick with here especially when we think about the price that it's trading out now north of 405.
yeah um i mean tesla i think has completely turned the head of a auto business model around i mean i think it is a lot more like apple with its iphone and how it really disrupted the handset carrier ecosystem you know in wireless and i think tesla is a car that you know has fanatical loyalty from its owners and its interface is so different and it's electric and you know i think people are going to make a mistake trying to put it into a box as a low multiple automaker but you know i don't know what the upside is cost of capital is low right now so valuation can be quite elevated for a lot of things and that seems to be the the thought across the board perhaps uh some of that playing out last week we'll see what happens this week though things kicking off in the green as the nasdaq still holds its gains but tom lee fun strike always appreciate chatting with you yeah thanks for having me
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