저자: DanIves · 외국인
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첫 줄: 테슬라는 배터리 데이(9월 22일)를 계기로 추가 상승 촉매가 기대되며, S&P500 편입 탈락은 결국 일시적이라는 긍정 전망. S&P500 편입 탈락: 시장 충격이었으나 수익성 추이가 관건이며 결국 편입될 것으로 봄. 단기 주가 반응은 과잉이었다고 평가. 배터리 데이: 9월 22일 예정. 테슬라 차별화 요소는 브랜드, 선점 우위, 프리몬트·기가상하이 공장, 배터리 기술. 100만 마일 배터리·가격 경쟁력 개선이 핵심이며, 공개 시 주가의 추가 촉매로 작용할 것으로 전망. 경쟁 구도: GM·니콜라 제휴 관련 소식은 전기차 시장 검증 신호로 해석. 테슬라는 기술 격차를 유지할 것이며 전기차 '군비 경쟁' 상황이라고 언급. 중국 생산: 중국 기가3 공장이 테슬라 성장의 핵심 거점. 중국 수출은 마진 손실이 있으나 수요에 따른 일시적 현상이며 지속 가능한 트렌드는 아니라고 봄.
다듬은 글
we are going to be chatting tesla right now that stock is down about a third of a percentage point right now now that stock had been walloped earlier this week so to chat more all about the electric vehicle company we are joined now by dan eyes wed bush securities managing director dan good to see you and to talk to you again i first want to start with the snub that tesla got from the s p 500 i think a lot of people were expecting that it was going to be included why do you think that the s p 500 said no yeah we've talked about that i mean that was a shock to the stream obviously you saw in terms of the stock reaction and look and part of it is that it was viewed that they sort of checked every box you know so the fact that they didn't get inclusion from an indexing perspective you saw a lot of momentum come out of the stock you know look we do think that they will get in whether it's next quarter the quarter after it's all about that profitability trajectory still more to prove in terms of the s p 500 decision makers you know but i think now at least the stock we can focus back on core fundamentals in terms of battery day and deliveries rather than i would i've used maybe a bit of an overreaction this week so to that point about battery day september 22nd i believe if i'm getting the date correctly what are you expecting out of that day and i saw in your note that you were calling it a potential game-changing battery how so well i mean for tesla when you think about what differentiates tesla from every other ev player domestically internationally it's of course the brand the first mover advantage fremont gigan of course gigan shanghai giga3 but it's really the battery technology and if you look that's been a huge part of what tesla's been working on over the last year in terms of battery technology and innovations whether it's getting toward the million mile battery whether it's getting further price parity which is very significant from uh you know especially when you compare it to traditional gasoline-fueled cars as well as a third-party battery supplier and and i think part of why tesla's treated different and valued differently it's because everything they've done under the hood and fremont gig and i think once they lift the valve on that for battery dam view as another incremental catalyst for the stock how much of a bad news do you think that could spell for gm and nicola which are now partnering when i think of nikola i always think on some level baby tesla obviously coming up after them but tesla right now and has been for a long time just by and large way out ahead of all other competitors when it comes to innovation how much more room do you think this is going to put between them and all the other competitors that are trying to come up behind them look i think this is a big enough ocean for more than one boat so i think it just speaks to the overall ev market when you look at gm and nikola and obviously on noise this week around that story but ultimately i mean that was really a validation and it speaks to you look at gm i mean the tens of billions that they're going to spend around battery technology right now it's an arms race in terms of the eb market not just domestically internationally we see a lot in china as well and that's why tesla they have a target on their back and it comes down to continuing to differentiate themselves versus competition that's going to be the key but all starts with what's under the hood in terms of battery technology so i have a two-part question for you dan all coming out of china you refer to the country as a linchpin for tesla i'm wondering if you could talk us through that but also too tesla is now doing something that they said they would not do which is exporting cars from china how is that going to be good for the company going forward yeah i mean first when it comes to china if i go out next two three years i think eventually that's 40 overall units so the reason it's a linchpin really the hearts along with the success story of tesla because it's about giga three in demand four percent penetrated and i think a market that could be seven eight acts bigger than what we see in the and i think china if you look that's really been a core part of the success even during this pandemic more of a teflon-like model in terms of obviously shipping from china look it's something where that production has gotten to a point now where that is really a linchpin of the production and manufacturing facility of course there's a bit of a margin hit you know as you ship from china to other parts of the world i don't see that as a sustainable trend i think it just comes down to production at this point is at a point where they're going to continue to do that based on demand in china but if there's any sort of overflow based on successful production they'll ship those elsewhere hey investors zac
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