저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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판사의 XRP 부분 승소 판결로 암호화폐 규제 명확성이 높아졌다는 긍정적 시각이 제시되었으나, 출연자들은 금리 장기 고정 가능성과 인플레이션 재가속 리스크를 함께 논의했다. 법원 판결: 리플의 XRP 일반 투자자 대상 거래는 투자계약(증권)이 아니라고 판단되었고, 기관 대상 매각은 증권으로 봤다. 이를 암호화폐 업계에 대한 승리로 평가하며 코인베이스 등 SEC 소송에도 영향을 줄 수 있다고 봤다. 다만 특정 기업 전망은 제시되지 않았다. 금리 전망: 6월 인플레이션이 3%로 완화되어 연준 긴축 효과가 나타났다는 평가가 나왔다. 래리 서머스는 구조적 요인(중국 디커플링, 에너지 전환 투자, 국방지출 증가)으로 금리가 시장 예상보다 오래 높게 유지될 것이라고 주장했다. 증시 전망(찬스): 금리는 높게 유지되더라도 대기 중인 막대한 현금이 성장자산으로 재배치되면서 주식시장이 크게 오를 것이라고 주장했다. 저점은 향후 12~18개월 사이에 형성되며 연준 인하 전에 바닥이 나올 것으로 봤다. 과거 2021년 11월 매도 조언이 시장 고점과 맞았다고 언급했다. 반대 의견(데이비드 삭스): 금리가 높게 유지되면 주가 추가 상승 여지는 제한적이며, 주가 랠리는 내년 초 금리 인하 기대에 따른 것이라고 봤다. 리스크: 임금·식품 가격 상승, 국방·에너지 투자 확대에 따른 인플레이션 재가속, 상업용 부동산 위기 및 은행 위기 재발 가능성, 재정적자와 부채/GDP 비율 상승이 거론되었다. 출연자 전망 요약: 찬스는 단기 조정보다 12~18개월 내 상승 랠리를 예상했으며, 삭스는 금리 인하 없이는 추가 상승이 어렵다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
the headline is I reading the Tweet Ripple sales of xrp do not constitute offer of investment contracts according to judge they won this is a huge Vindication for them and that xrp is ripping 35 percent yeah and it really handcuffs the SEC what are they going to do about coinbase and every other exchange I mean if they're not selling securities I think coinbase and everybody else has always maintained they're selling tokens this was the this was the fulcrum argument for the SEC and they just they just lost the whole crypto Market is ripping right now following a Monumental legal battle Ripple Labs the company behind the xrp token secured a partial Victory against the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission in the 2020 civil lawsuit the SEC accused Ripple Labs of violating Federal Securities laws by selling xrp cryptocurrency to retail consumers however the u-south Southern District Court of New York ruled otherwise stating that certain sales and distributions of xrp tokens by Ripple and its Executives were not investment contracts and thus did not break Securities laws nevertheless the judge also ruled that institutional sales of xrp to hedge funds and similar entities are considered Securities cryptocurrency investors embraced the news that token sales on exchanges are not investment contracts considering the past Catholic months with U.S Regulators classifying most cryptocurrency tokens as unregistered Securities experts including former SEC official Christian Schultz viewed the ruling as a win for the crypto industry affirming that xrp is not a security in transactions in xrp on the secondary Market do not violate Securities laws billionaire investor charmath palaha pidia and members of the all-in podcast also reacted to the news believing it to be a significant victory for the entire cryptocurrency industry which could impact the sec's cases against coinbase and other crypto related firms in the podcast they also discussed the macro picture in the United States including the likelihood of higher interest rates for a longer period I just texted with Brad garlinghouse and he says um yes it does mean that they won and he feels Vindicated Vindicated and really happy it's a judgment that seems to indicate for a lot of folks that these are not going to be treated as Securities I think that this is a really important just think about how amazing the United States is that the government agencies the administration in power can come after corporations and then we have a court system that can adjudicate and make decisions that follow the rule of law I know we're going to talk about Lena Khan and her agency's efforts at litigation but I'm really encouraged at the fact that the court system in the United States doesn't just kowtow to whatever Administration is in power at that moment that they do adjudicate by the law and ultimately provide greater Clarity for business for individuals to operate going forward that there is a better sense now for the market there's a better sense now for individuals great is that there's now Clarity because the courts provided that yeah has this trend changed I thought they I thought America always did that yeah I it's great I think it's look because you you obviously obviously zealous Administration and a very zealous agency leader who is testing the boundaries and you know Lena Khan's agency is pushing the limits on what constitutes antitrust and in the effort to try and push those boundaries there is a pushback from the courts Ben Gensler in the SEC I'm sorry yeah but but both agencies right and so it's good to see that there's Clarity emerging and that the courts do their job the big news this week is inflation has eased a three percent in June so the feds increases have worked and I guess the question now is are we going to have a sustained High interest rate or is it going to get cut slowly I think Larry said publicly that he thinks that rates are going to need to be higher for longer than what the market is currently showing we talked last week with Brad obviously about what the market is showing rates to be and he's assuming some rate Cuts will start to happen in December and that's really what the market is saying is going to happen and Brad's point was the market knows better than the forecasters but Larry Summers has publicly shared that he thinks that that is actually not correct and you know again diversity of Youth is important to understand that there are structural things that are happening in the world right now including a decoupling from China which is inflationary because you know China provides cheap goods and cheap manufacturing for a lot of Industries and many of those Industries sell to Consumers so ultimately those prices are going to show up in consumer costs there's an increase in energy transition expenditure and security uh globally and Summers has pointed out that those are not free they have to be funded and obviously taking on more funding means you're going to have to pay higher interest rates for investors to provide that Capital to do that funding so there are more structural longer term trends that some folks in The Summer's Camp have been arguing are going to be driving inflation higher and keep rates higher for much longer than what the market is currently showing and I think it's really worth noting that point of view particularly given how quickly the market thinks rates are going to start getting cut the more important thing from that jaycal is so what do we do about it and I think the most important point of view that I'm trying to get to is where do I think the equity Market is going to go and you know if all roads at least right now look like the market is getting set to go materially higher and the reason isn't whether you know terminal rates are a two percent or three percent or three and a half percent I don't think that matters as much what matters more are the trillions of dollars that are sitting on the sideline or in other defensive assets that need to then pivot around and get put back into growth assets once you know that the worst is behind us and I think that's what a market always looks for before real sentiment changes and what's important to note is that by the time most people figure out that the sentiment has changed it's already actually too late and so ah I think right now in the next sort of like 12 to 18 months is really when the bottom is put into the market it's before the FED starts cutting it's when rates are still going to be relatively high but the really astute sharp in this market will get ahead of it and they will start to buy what they think will be an eventual rally John math pallahapidia is among several renowned investors predicting more upside rallies in the stock market even in the face of gloomy economic conditions the possibility of a soft Landing rather than a recession along with the AI hype is expected to support higher stock prices regardless of the overall economic Outlook however David Sachs disagrees with kamatha's prediction and attributes the rallies to the Market's expectation of rate Cuts possibly happening early next year if interest rates stay high until then sax believes that if interest rates remain elevated the chances of further stock market rallies will be slim here are more Clips featuring insights from chomath sax and Freeburg so I think that Larry is right I think that I still believe what I've said for a while which is rates will be higher for longer but what I didn't believe before was that the market was set to go up I think we did a great job I think literally that when I made that comment November of 21 about starting to sell it was the absolute top of the market yeah you know that one you know that one nailed it yeah and I think my commentary now is that we're putting in the bottom and I think the market is set to go materially higher even if rates are persistently higher for a while I don't think it's gonna be a Mania but I do think that the market is ripping today because the market is basically pricing in the idea of a soft Landing along with inflation being tamed so you got to pause the CPI report at three percent you had a hot jobs report a week or two ago and there's a interesting article in the Wall Street Journal today talking about the odds of a soft Landing improving and they have some data for that I don't particularly agree with the sub headline they're trying to latest data suggests a lot of past inflation was transitory that seems yeah that I think is is being too charitable to the fact because when they use the word transitory they were using as an excuse not to raise interest rates and we just had the fastest rate tightening cycle ever over the past year that's the reason why inflation has gone down it was not transitory until they jacked up interest rates from zero to five percent so the Wall Street Journal I think is doing a little covering for the FED there but nonetheless I think everybody is pleasantly surprised that a CPI is now down to three percent and B you have not had a significant cooling of the jobs market so certainly the odds now of a soft Landing have gone up and the thing that's sort of surprising about what Larry Summers is saying is that if you believe that inflation is going to come roaring back that's certainly a contrarian bet that's not what the market is saying right now what the market is predicting right now and and the reason why stocks are rallying is what the market is thinking is well if inflation's down to three percent we can end the year at three or even lower then the FED can start cutting next year and so they're starting a price in rate Cuts but if inflation comes roaring back you're not going to get rate cuts and so stock prices are going to go down I don't see how you can have a scenario of even higher interest rates from here along with higher stock prices I think you need lower rates to get higher stock prices so basically if interest rates go down I think for sure you'll see multiples go up and I think if interest rate's going to keep going up from here then you're not going to get that rally I think there's a general statement that can be made that we are coming out of a zero interest rate environment into which lasted for a very long period of time into a a very stimulatory environment because of government spending and when you have government spending stimulating the economy you have a natural Market Force of inflation coming from the additional Capital being pumped into the economy and the purchasing and and all that sort of stuff like you pointed out 50-year low in unemployment and we're trying to create a bunch of new jobs and who's going to fill those jobs you're gonna have to pay people more to get them to take both jobs so you know you're going to see a rising wages it drives wage growth But ultimately keeping this in mind so the lower wage Brokers let's use a simple example people that work in fast food their if their rates go from you know eight bucks to 15 bucks to 25 bucks an hour the cost of fast food goes up so on the food price index you'll see a rise in food prices so right now it seems like the fed and the market are all acknowledging and reacting to you know these these I don't I would kind of argue acute conditions that are being resolved from coming out of the covid stimulation but there are in place as the comments have been made increased spending to Nato because of Global Security concerns increased defense spending globally the current projection from the CDO showing what defense spending is going to be as a percentage of GDP or percentage of government spending there are some folks as you guys all know well who you would speak to in DC who think that those numbers are BS because we're going to increase defense spending not cut it because of Global Security concerns particularly as we decouple from China and all of the energy transition stuff the IRA the chips act which is a security thing these are all stimulatory so the tides come in and out but the sea levels are rising and over time that translates into a way to manage the inflation but also to raise the capital which means you have to pay higher rates uh and this is this is in the EU and the U.S that it seems this is going to be the case expert analysts and top investors often hold contrasting views on the state and trajectory of the economy however there is widespread agreement that the U.S economy faces numerous macro headwinds in the foreseeable future many are concerned about the potential return of a banking crisis given the Brewing commercial real estate crisis unfolding in the coming weeks and months moreover the rapidly increasing debt to GDP ratio and Rising interest rates are additional challenges the U.S economy must confront in the long term the video presents a carefully laid out analysis of the current state and trajectory of the U.S economy as viewers we are encouraged to share our thoughts
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