저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 6월 8일 기준 Kevin은 실업률 보고서의 계절조정 문제를 설명하며 실업률이 과소집계됐을 수 있으나 3%p는 과장이라고 봄. 고용이 바닥을 찍고 회복(변곡점)이 나타난다고 평가. 2차 부양책은 $2,000 월지급안이 어렵고 급여세 유예 등 축소 방향일 것으로 예상, 히어로즈법이 유지되면 1,200달러 수표 가능성. 니콜라 급등을 언급하며 테슬라·니콜라 주목, 독일 녹색 부양책 강조. 산타바바라 리노베이션 부동산 매수 계약 발표. 신용카드 신청 추천.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, Kevin here with a stimulus update for you for June 8th and a money update for you. By the way, this means that I'm also going to be down talking about real estate and stocks towards the end of every video that I do. So that way I can incorporate all of the things that you love into one video.
So that means I might be posting less, but you'll actually get more summarized information faster. Let me know if you appreciate that in the comments down below. I read all of the feedback y'all give me and I know that some of you are frustrated because some of you were looking for stock information, some are looking for real estate information, but the problem is when I post a stimulus update video, the stock and real estate videos get like 30,000 views and the stimulus videos get, you know, 150 to 250,000 views.
That is YouTube is prioritizing the stimulus videos over the other. So the other information is is kind of getting washed away. So if you're interested in stimulus and making money, look for these update videos and I'm going to try to incorporate everything together. I hope you appreciate that. If you like that, let me know in the comments down below if that drives with you.
Now, we've got some stimulus updates for you today including some that haven't been mentioned yet. I just watched some new press conferences, broke them apart for you, got some new information. But first I do want to make another quick note on something that's happening. Because I spend my day kind of sitting through the economists and going through the Financial Times and Federal Reserve reports and that, I do try to provide you as much unique information and commentary as possible.
Well, unfortunately, yesterday I broke a video to you about the Federal Reserve's upcoming stimulus. I spent like 5 hours researching that video and thinking of how to easily explain what the Federal Reserve is doing and how the bottom line ends up working out for you. Hint hint, it benefits people who invest which is like the world is just so disconnected from the people who need help the most right now.
It's literally like recession or pandemic happens and the rich get richer every time. That that it's so frustrating. But anyway, I broke down some of that information yesterday. But literally this morning, I wake up and somebody basically took my entire video to copied the transcript of the video, slightly modified it and then filmed their own version of it.
And I'm like, "Ah, you literally just like copied my script." And and I this isn't me actually bringing this to my own attention. People have been emailing me saying, "Somebody's literally copying you almost word for word." So just stay tuned. Like if you know, if you want original content, I do encourage you check out.
You know, even though it's a competitive landscape, I do encourage you watch people like look, you know, Brian a ClearValueTax, you know, we've we've poked fun at each other before, but I encourage you watch him. Steven Gardner, even Logan Alec, you know, Logan Alec I don't know why, but like he deserves more views.
Anyway, ShaeLee Morgan, Jeff Rose and I know Logan's had some critical things to say about me. We can disagree whether or not the $1,000 EIDL grant was a stimulus check or not. About 50% of people were able to qualify for that. And you know, not everybody was able to qualify for the $1,200 stimulus check.
So you know, we had a little back and forth on that, but that's all that aside, I don't dislike the guy. But none of these people are actually like straight up copying other people anyway. All right, let's get into some of the new information that's going on here. So the first thing that I want to talk about is there's a lot of you know, concern over that Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment report right now.
That is a lot of us are frustrated over well, come on. Like why are the numbers going down? The numbers should be higher and the stock market is going fugazi magic money crazy and just straight up and it makes it impossible for any of us to get ahead and again the rich are getting richer. Well, look, I agree with you and and all of the drama that's going on over this misclassification that the unemployment report should be 3% higher.
But there's something that makes this more complicated. I don't think it's as easy as saying it should be 3% higher and I'll explain it super super fast. Look at this. This is the bottom of the report. Notice what they say here that the unemployment data would have been 3% higher, but that would be on a not seasonally adjusted basis.
And what's frustrating about that is you got to know that when they do this data, it's always on a seasonally adjusted basis. So the actual employment reports, you know, the fact that unemployment is 13.3%, that's seasonally adjusted. They're saying it would be 3% higher not seasonally adjusted. Okay, well what does that mean in a seasonally adjusted manner?
Maybe it would only be a half percent higher or 1% higher. It's so blurry. I wish they would give more clarity and the seasonal adjustment thing is something that isn't being talked about much because look, I agree with you because you're probably thinking the same thing I think. It's complicated and it's annoying.
Like what is the seasonal adjustment? Oh, they try to make it, you know, less volatile by considering holidays and weather and harvests and school schedules. Ah, whatever. But I do want to mention that it's not as cut and dry as oh, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is literally trying to rip all of us off and the unemployment rate really is 3% higher.
You know, I think if they made that big of a mistake in fairness to them, I think that they would revise it. But I think that seasonal adjustment thing is kind of why they're like, oh, like it's you know, if we seasonally adjusted it wouldn't be that big of a deal. I don't know that. I'm just, you know, and I'm not trying to take sides.
I just think if we pull back the layer a little deeper, it's like, "Oh, okay. Well, that makes sense." Like that looks bad. The way they wrote that it looks bad. They're like, "If we included this, the unemployment would be 3% higher." Yeah, that looks really bad. That makes for a really good headline.
When we dig a little deeper, I don't think it's as terribly mis misdone as the media is portraying it right now. I'm just trying to be realistic with that information, right? And the truth is the numbers should have probably been higher, but I don't know a full 3%. Now, another update is that Kayleigh McEnany, I think so you say it, held a press conference about 30 minutes ago and I watched the entire thing for you so you don't have to.
And what's interesting about what she said is right before talking about stimulus checks, she mentioned that Trump was very upset with Congresswoman AOC and Rashida Tlaib and their views on defunding the police. And then she started talking about a stimulus, you know, the future stimulus and she was asked a question on this.
And what's interesting on this is AOC has been pushing for $2,000 per month in stimulus and they specifically called her out as being disliked by Donald Trump. Also, Rashida Tlaib is the person who's been pushing the BOOST Act which would give $2,000 per month in stimulus debit cards during the pandemic and $1,000 per month thereafter.
Also named by Donald Trump and the press secretary as being people essentially despised by the Trump administration. Now, sadly it seems that most of the people pushing for the $2,000 per month stimulus package are completely opposed by Donald Trump and and that is going to be a big problem and I think we all have kind of parted ways with the odds of a $2,000 stimulus package coming.
However, Kayleigh did go on to say that Trump remains completely open to a phase four stimulus package that the White House did actually hold their meeting on the next round of stimulus and they're planning on making an announcement regarding that. However, she did kind of give us the preview which we've heard before, but I kind of have a little bone to pick here.
She said, "We're going to be looking at the payroll tax holiday which directly advantages low income earners and several other things he's interested in, but we just can't be giving state and local governments straight up bailouts." That's roughly what she said, but I have a bone to pick with her because when she says that the payroll tax holiday directly advantages lower income earners, I disagree with that and we've talked about this in multiple videos before, but look, somebody working for $10, $20, even $30 an hour isn't seeing a huge stimulus from simply making an additional 7 to potentially 15% depending on how the payroll tax holiday is structured.
It's just not enough and it's not quick enough. Realistically, you'll have to work for two to six months to actually see $1,200 to $1,800 worth of stimulus. It just seems that the government is extremely disconnected from us and that's really frustrating that that's what they chose to say in their press conference this morning that the payroll tax holiday substantially helps lower income earners.
It it helps higher income earners way more, you know, people making over $100,000 up to certain limitations, of course, right? Now, Kevin Hassett this morning also suggested he talked about the jobs report and he said he admitted like hey, yeah, look, obviously there could have been some misclassifications and that, but he had a good point and usually I don't agree with Kevin Hassett.
Usually I think he's he's too much of a bear that is, you know, too oh, we're just going to wait and see, we're not going to do anything. But he had a good point here. He said that look, what's important right now is we shut the economy down, unemployment skyrocketed. But now we're basically seeing this crawl back and that's creating the inflection point.
People are going back to work. Yes, you know, the jobs report was a mess and hey, you know what? I mean, in my opinion with all this sort of confusingness with, you know, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted, it's almost borderline deceptive and and that's not fair to us as individuals. But I do also agree that there seems to be at least an inflection point and whether that is a slowing of the unemployment rate going up or it's the unemployment rate going down, the point is we're starting to get back to work.
And that's good for our economy and it is going to have impacts on what happens in the next round of stimulus, but that remains to be seen. Now, let's move on to the quick note on the $1,200 stimulus check. Here's my POV on whether or not we're actually going to see the $1,200 stimulus check. It's going to come down to whether or not the Heroes Act is revised or completely trashed and then rewritten.
If the Senate, the Republican controlled Senate revises the Heroes Act, we'll probably see the $1,200 stimulus check because there hasn't been a lot of opposition to that. But the Heroes Act is 1,800 pages long and it includes a lot of things that Republicans are not very happy with like money for prisons, early prison release for certain prisoners, revisions to the cannabis industry, the $600 unemployment boost, and the $1200 checks are obviously in there, but they haven't specifically expressed distaste for that.
There's money for essential workers to get help to pay for daycare in there. And there are also temporary elimination eliminations of the salt taxes, which would benefit people primarily in states like New York and California who have high state and local taxes that they pay. So, there are a lot of issues in that bill that Republicans are not very happy with.
If they can fix those issues and negotiate those issues, I think the $1200 stimulus checks will come. But, if they scrap it and rewrite the bill, it's not going to look as pretty. I think then we're more likely to see something like, you know, two to $300 for unemployment pay, maybe some form of a back to work boost, some sort of payroll tax deduction, and hopefully support for those on social security, or retirement, or a disability.
Uh so, but as long as that Heroes Act stays intact, I think we're good with that lump sum payment. Remember Donald Trump says he wants to ask for additional stimulus money, mostly because he wants to make sure that this recovery stays as strong as possible, which is really just politician speak for, "We want you to vote for Trump." Now, in terms of stock news, the stock Nikola, which is going to be a huge competitor, huge rival to Tesla, at least that's what a lot of people believe right now, surged over 60% today.
And they just IPO'd last week, and they're expecting to announce reservations for their version of the Cybertruck today, their version of that. And this stock is hot right now. It's almost too hot to touch. But something that's been very interesting, because I've been researching a lot over this these hydrogen fuel cell cars and electric vehicles, is take a look at what Germany actually did with their stimulus package.
They spent more than 30% of their $145 billion recovery package, which they negotiated last week, and they put it aside for lower emission vehicles, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and they have initiatives that help people buy electric cars, and reduce taxes on electric cars, and make electric charging stations mandatory at gas stations.
There's also money for clean hydrogen. So, if you're interested in stocks, Tesla and Nikola are stocks to pay attention to, because Germany tends to be a leader in sort of the green revolution. I think we're going to see more and more of that. We know that Donald Trump doesn't very much like green initiatives, but this is something to keep in mind, you know, for the decades to come.
Now, in terms of real estate, and the announcement that I have, I I am I'm turning bullish. I have signed a contract to buy a complete fixer-upper in Santa Barbara. That is right on the edge of my 30-minute rule to buy real estate. I'm really excited to share that project with you. It's it's intense, but it's going to be really fun.
So, stay tuned for updates on that project on the channel here. Uh it was bought for just over $700,000. I'll probably close on it sometime within the next 60 to 90 days. That is a probate sale, and it has to be approved by the courts, and the courts are closed, so it's a mess. But I've got it under contract.
We'll see how it goes. I'm super excited for that. Now, uh one thing more here, I wanted to touch on credit cards. A lot of you have been asking, "Kevin, what should I do? I want to get a credit card. I want to start building my credit. Is now the time to apply?" I would say for a lot of us, now is a great time to apply, and I highly recommend you apply for something especially if you're looking for a starter card.
And right now, I'd highly recommend that rather than applying for a secured card, where you have to put like $500 into a bank account, and then you get a credit card, apply for something like the Apple credit card. The Apple credit card issued by Goldman Sachs has very, very low entry requirements, and it's a great way to build your credit.
And this isn't sponsored. You y'all know the only thing sponsored in this video is you getting two free stocks with WeBull when you deposit $100 and life insurance, right? And my courses down below, of course. But you can get the Apple credit card. Jeez, the thing's uh the thing's pretty heavy. It is a titanium card or whatever it is.
But anyway, uh you can get the Apple credit card. Usually, I mean, people are getting this thing with like a 570 credit score, so I don't know if they've recently changed those guidelines, but that is a current recommendation that I do have for you. So, vide.
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