저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 6월 6일 기준 2차 경기부양책 관련 발언. 급여세 감면은 저소득층에 불리하며 실질 지원이 느리다고 주장. 실업률 13%는 축소 집계로 확장 실업률은 27%에 달한다고 분석. 래리 커들로 발언(7월 4일 이후 표결 가능성)을 근거로 의회 휴회 기간상 표결이 7월 20일 이전엔 어렵다고 봄. 실업 데이터 왜곡 지적에도 시장이 '변곡점'으로 받아들여 열광하는 점을 설명. 구체적 자산 가격 방향 예측은 없음, 유료 강의·플랫폼 홍보 위주.
다듬은 글
for Saturday June 6 the White House just released another update regarding the next round of stimulus this update does come on the heels of Donald Trump yesterday suggesting that there will be additional stimulus those were his words and over seven times between himself and Mike Pence we heard them collectively push for a payroll tax deduction which does not make us a very happy but we have a little bit of new information today but first if you have not yet watched my video yesterday you should probably already know and if you don't here you go that the payroll tax deduction disproportionately hurts those people who make less money it's basically just a small increase in pay that you would receive every time that you would get paid so then kinda have to go back to work and then get paid and then you see a little bit of a benefit and the problem is really anybody making less than $50,000 it's gonna take them quite a while to earn that entire payroll tax deduction and actually see some kind of stimulus it's totally the opposite of here's a stimulus check and you get this instant relief this instant ship that comes in and I guess I shouldn't really say ship because come on realistically $1,200 isn't that much it's helpful but it's not really as much as we need but the big problem is the payroll tax deduction really hurts people making between ten to twenty twenty-five dollars an hour yesterday somebody said well come on fair is fair I mean poor people are disproportionately helped by the $600 a week in unemployment and while he's right about that $600 a week of unemployment kind of disproportionately helping those who make more or less money what we have to remember is poor people always lose when there's a recession the rich always get richer every time there's a recession it's harder to get into new jobs it's harder to advance with the skills that you learned in school and basically if you're poor you might not have even gone to college which makes you even more likely to stay in a paycheck-to-paycheck situation for longer every time there is a recession the wealth gap grows the poor stay poor and the rich get richer because they have the means to take advantage of it they've got the real estate the assets the stocks the connections the CPAs the attorneys to take advantage of every loophole that poor Americans can't now in my opinion this is exactly why we all need to open up a weeble account deposit $100 and gets to trading stocks you could see that link it my awesome programs and of course the link to see what kind of stocks I like my favorite ones are down there but let's keep going and look I get where this person is coming from who left that comment but 99% of you leaving comments agreed and suggested you know what that payroll tax cut it's not gonna help us as quickly as stimulus really should this isn't even to mention the robbing of Social Security now don't get me wrong just because Donald Trump is talking a new payroll tax deduction doesn't mean that the $1,200 checks or the extension of unemployment or off the table although we are expecting modifications to the extension of unemployment this is just to say that the payroll tax deduction doesn't really help the people who need it most as fast and efficiently as it seems like it would now then I've had other people leave comments saying oh well Kevin now you're really showing your liberal bias it's funny because I get literally just as many comments of people going why are you always shilling Donald Trump's information and you're not talking about them and what the Democrats are doing he says can't win well right now the bottom line is the spotlight is on Republicans because they're the ones to make the next move it's like playing chess am I supposed to talk about the dudes waiting for the other dude to make the move I mean but anyway yesterday we broke those numbers down so feel free to take a look at the numbers and to see how payroll tax deductions would affect you that was the June 5th update but let me give you the latest here according to a Larry Kudlow he is the director of the National Economic Council he basically sits in the White House all day long okay maybe on holiday long but he hangs out in the White House and tells Donald Trump what he thinks about the economy Larry Kudlow is like this infamous well things are getting better let's wait and see kinda dude and he just gave us a little bit of an update that's actually frustrating right and this shouldn't be much of a surprise that why our government is giving us a frustrating update but the bottom line is Larry Kudlow you said hey you know we're probably gonna vote on something after July 4th but the problem is we have three voting days before July 4th we have the 30th we have the 1st and we have the second and then Congress goes on break on the 3rd we have three voting days before July 4th if Larry Kudlow says we're probably gonna pass something after July 4th well don't think okay July 5th 6th come on it's gonna be one of those days that would make too much sense no there's a large break they call it a recess and so it's unlikely that we'll see any kind of votes actually happen before July 20th one that recess it ends now another thing that I've been getting bombarded by a lot of you all and look I love y'all I love it when you do this because it makes it very clear that I need to talk about something and that's exactly what we're gonna do so thank you for your messages you are being heard thank you for your comments your posts in discord the Instagram everything thank you there's a lot of concern over the unemployment data let's talk about the unemployment data the unemployment data obviously came out very optimistically into a lot of fanfare well there have been a lot of reports so that the unemployment data is skewed or raked and I want to speak to exactly those things well here my friends is one of your culprit this is yes the New York Times I know they're on the left try to put that aside for a second but just take a glimpse of what they do they say okay so we've got 13% unemployed that's what the data says but when we go through we're actually missing some people here there are some people that aren't being counted for various reasons such as if you are only marginally attached to the labor force you didn't kick counted but if we included them the unemployment rate would actually go up to fourteen point two percent then if we include people who say they want a job but they haven't looked for a job the unemployment rate goes up to seventeen point nine percent this I guess oh and then the rate further increases if we include the u6 measure which the u6 measure is the people who are working part-time or half of that their hours cup then if we combine that with all of the other groups of people who should be counted the unemployment rate the expanded unemployment rate should be 27 percent which is obviously way worse than what was reported yesterday why is this and why is everybody jumping up and down about this great unemployment report well here's the thing every single time the unemployment report comes out this same stuff happens everybody initially gets excited over it and there are a million articles about how screwed up the unemployment rate is let me just show you a very quick a sample and try to prove this to you and then we'll make a conclusion take a look at this so here is an article look at that from July 11th 2019 unemployment is low but that's only part of the story and they go in and kind of talk about that same thing I just showed you here's another one misleading unemployment numbers may be prompting the Fed and Bank of England to make a huge error look at this September of 2018 it's every time here's another new york times one from July 11th 2019 it's like they write the same article unemployment is low but that's only part of the story all right we got that just type into Google unemployment deceptive data and this is literally what you get it's the same thing over and over again in fact here you go here it is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics themselves they talk about how they revised unemployment data and they say that at the end of each calendar year they re estimate for seasonal factors and they end up doing four to five changes to the data that comes out and basically the data is never accurate so what the heck is the point then why are we jumping up and down over these reports that are basically always skewed there's no point to get excited about it when the information is wrong and does this mean the stock market's gonna crash on Monday because oh my gosh these reports came out that the data is maybe not as accurate as it should be well let's take a look at that but first of hundred dollars with we will get two free stock sign up for your life insurance in the link down below and check out my awesome programs on Finance investing and real estate alright let's hop on over here look at this this is the way I look at it when we have unemployment data that goes up it's bad and this unemployment data that shows the up it follows the same way they collect data in the way they're collecting data now and when it goes up again that's bad what we're really looking at now is an inflection point yes the way they collect data the way they've always been doing it is funky but because we've now seen an inflection point you have the stock market going bonkers and go nuts and that's the difference that I believe the market sees and why there's so much enthusiasm so yes the data is screwed up yes the way they collect the data is messed up but at this point you kind of just almost shake your head and go did I really expect anything different so well folks there you have it very disappointing news regarding what Larry Kudlow said and just keep in mind though he is like the perma bear at the White House which a bear in the stock market in case you're not familiar is basically someone who wants the stock market to crash he's kind of like the dude in the White House that's always like no no no we don't need more stimulus we got to focus on the the debt we need to be cognizant rooms above money and our expenses right now okay Larry okay which how many of you have seen Impractical Jokers Larry Larry thanks everybody we'll see you next time
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