저자: Kevin · 외국인
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경기침체 대비 자산 보호 10가지 방법을 소개. 주택담보 재융资(네거티브 포인트), HELOC 확보, 지출 지연, 사업 지출 지연, 신용 동결, 마진 부채 축소, AI 저항력 확보 등을 권고. 과거 대공황·2008 사례를 근거로 장기 인내 필요 강조. 바닥 신호로 TLT 140~160 구간을 제시하며 그때 전반적 매수(buy the dip)를 고려하라고 함.
다듬은 글
hi I'm me Kevin in this video we're going to talk about 10 things to protect your money whether or not we're going into an economic downturn let's get started the very first thing that you need to do is think about accessing Capital while it's still possible to do this this obviously won't apply to everyone but about 2third of you are homeowners now is an interesting time even when rates are high in the near term to potentially look into a refinance but I want you to do something special I want you to take negative points now this video isn't going to be about the real estate market but let's give you a quick synopsis in certain overbuilt markets especially after the co boom we're likely going to continue to see prices decline in some markets for example if you look at Austin Texas last three years year-over-year I've had negative prices year after year that's because we had a CO bubble overb build over Supply all of a sudden the rush of people moving there slowed because others weren't squeezed out of areas like California under you know the extremeness of some of the lockdowns California faced this isn't designed to be political either it's just simply to say the fact the Austin real estate market has been down year-over-year for the last three years in a row what you want to do as even if rates are high is consider refinancing to tap some of the equity if you have equity in your home so for example if your home value is ballooned up even if you have a lower interest rate locked in let's say if you have a $200,000 loan locked in over here uh and now your home is let's say Worth or let's say it was worth $800,000 you know whenever you got your loan it was worth less uh and now it's come down a little bit let's say now it's worth $700,000 or whatever it is 620 whatever it could make sense to refinance even though you're losing that lower rate you could potentially access more Capital this is going to become very important for when we get into the buy the dip phase because let's say you have now $400,000 of equity that you could access you pay off your old loan you obviously have to make sure you can afford the 30-year mortgage payment that you're doing on this uh but what you've done is you've freed up the difference you now have access to $200,000 and more Capital that's really important that you don't go below that money on like an RV or something crazy instead be ready be prepared uh to buy the dip because that's what we're going to talk about in the moment as well and those could be business opportunities they could be stocks they could be real estate wherever stress shows itself and as Buffett always says wherever blood ends up on the streets that's the time to get greedy right but you need access to Capital to actually do anything so what I like to say is consider using that piggy bank of of your home or of your rental real estate or whatever just to have access to Capital now again don't blow that money that's it's very car very dangerous to utilize your real estate Equity because often often times what people do is they'll pay off credit card debt and they'll get right back into credit card debt that's a big mistake so you want to be careful with what you do with this this needs to be strategic but this video is is for adults so what's also important is that you take those negative points in my opinion this is not personalized Financial advice for you this is Broad advice for you to consider when you talk to your mortgage loan originator your lender okay in English your lender when you talk to them I want them to give you Nega ative points as an option for you to consider I would like negative points and ask for menu so ask for a menu that gives you .5 -115 -2 uh and then dog3 okay so give you a menu all right why would you do negative points first and what does this even mean if the economy enters a downturn we would anticipate that overtime interest rates are going to plummet we can't guarantee this but if there's a downturn and you want to use that potential capital on an opportunity interest rates are likely to plummet when interest rates plummet the goal would be to refinance this debt that you took on that $400,000 lower no guarantees obviously if the property values go down that could be a risk so you want to be comfortable paying that payment what negative points allow you to do is lower your closing costs now so let's say you have closing costs of your refinance to get that $400,000 of $8,000 now what some people will do is they'll do what's called a rate buy down and they're like look it's going to cost me $88,000 to refinance uh and I'm going to get a rate of let's say 65% so some people are like oh that's so high so they'll actually choose to pay $122,000 and they'll take an interest rate of let's say 5.9% so now they feel like they got a better deal but they spent an extra $4,000 okay the break even on that at minimum is going to be about 7 and 1 half years realistically the break even on this difference over here it's probably going to be closer to 10 to 12 years so that extra investment you're making for the savings and the monthly payment it's going to take quite a while to break even not always you can do the math yourself that's why I say get a menu and do the math based on what you get but here's what I like to do I actually like to get negative points so what I say is I don't want to pay $88,000 I actually want you to give me $88,000 and cover those closing costs give me a higher interest rate so I might go in and say give me a 74 and I want my closing cost to be zero in other words they gave me -2 points to cover my closing costs right that might be the -2 option over here now all of a sudden I have more access to Capital yes I have a shorter term higher rate but if the economy does end up falling which is when I would use and deploy that Capital anyway I should be able to refinance again predicated on home values and you having a job to do that so as with any strategy there is risk and you have to go in knowing this now another strategy that people like to take advantage of uh in these these environments and again they're upsides and downsides with everything but I like home equity lines of credit so let's say you're in this situation where you own a home and you have uh a 2.9% interest rate on your $200,000 loan and you're like Kevin I don't want to get rid of that loan I don't want to refinance that at higher well okay that's smart that's logical so what you do is let's say you have a $200,000 loan and let's say the property uh is worth $800,000 uh in value so you have all this untapped Equity right here so what you want to do you want to hop in with a home equity line of credit uh for let's say you know up to 620 that'd be 80% maybe you could get up to 90% go to a local credit union for these by the way usually the bigger Banks like the big four Chase Bank of America they're not going to have good options for this go to the local credit unions so whatever County you're in that County Credit Union type that into Google you'll get plenty of options ask them what their HELOC programs are they'll often even wave your first year like application fee sometimes even they'll wave your appraisal fee okay so you have the difference of 80% of that so let's say 620 you have the difference of this and this available you could get a what is that uh $420,000 oh that's perfect $420,000 uh potential line of credit on this property uh now you might be saying yourself but Kevin interest rates on this line of credit that's insane you know I'm going to pay uh 10% in an interest on this credit line that's insane no you're not not going to use it so take the equity line of credit establish the credit so money tool number two is establish the line of credit okay number one was negative points and and establishing credit that way number two is get a helck a home equity line of credit charges you no interest until you actually write the check and use it imagine that a HELOC is just like opening or applying for a credit card it doesn't mean you're paying 10% on the $420,000 or 22% of your credit card just because you opened the credit card you haven't spent anything yet okay well when are you going to spend something you to spend what it makes sense to spend you know and there's a a great foreclosure that you know you can get a great deal de on and and acquire or buy a great opportunity and in business to expand or whatever you want to home equity line of credit to give you access to Capital when you need it the most now there are risks with this obviously the rates are higher again the economy goes into a down term these are variable so you see what the terms of these are uh they're usually a 10-year term uh and then they go into a 20-year fix thereafter so they're variable for 10 years you could draw on it you could pay it down draw on it pay it down down it's like a credit card after 10 years that goes away it locks and you repay it back over 20 years fixed fully amortized at that point if you don't know what some of these things mean sorry the video might just be that next level at the moment but we got to talk about next level Finance ask GPT about the little in between things so the helocs give you a tool but there are risks associated with them mostly that in 2008 credit lines were starting to get Frozen they would issue credit uh line freezes and that's because the banks would go risk off this is another reason why you want to start considering establishing Credit Now establishing loans now because credit is still available right now sometimes in a recession credit becomes unavailable banks are unwilling to lend and so they freeze lines so once you start hearing rumors about this happening or you start seeing some banks do it usually what people do is they'll take that 420 or whatever their available credit is they'll move it into a savings account they'll pay the bite the bullet a little bit on the interest but they'll realize I now have access to that Capital should I need it as a rainy day fund basically okay good so that's number two now number three is also a double-edged sword you have to be careful about this one in terms of how you do it um well as for when it comes to business but that's okay so we'll separate these you know what we'll do number three personal and then we'll do number four business that's how we'll do it so the personal one is a lot easier and this one we're not going to spend a lot of time on because it should be very basic okay so delay number three is just delay do you really need a bathroom remodel right now do you really need a new roof right now can you patch the roof do you really need a new car right now can you make yours work for a little while longer do you really need a new washing machine right now can you fix it I've personally dismantled washing machines and dryers and multiple times with a $25 part fixed my ,000 washing machine and prevented having to buy a new one they take time but they're kind of like weekend warrior projects anyway I find them kind of fun so I'm a big fan of delaying Capital expenditures for as long as you can in more uncertain times so that way you can build up cash reserves that's very important so big fan of this all right that was more obvious the uh number four version is the business version of this now this is more challenging because uh the easy the easiest way to explain this one is uh through an anal or a little story uh I don't know if it's true or not but it's just a it's it's very functional it'll really explain this one well uh college educated son goes to his father and says father father we're going into a recession and the father owns a um uh a you know knick-knack store on let's say you know Route 66 or whatever and uh they have a sign a giant billboard on the side of the highway so you know here's the highway and uh they've got a giant billboard over here and we'll call it uh some store we'll call it Nicks uh knicknacks okay cool and uh it's that way you know two miles is what the sign says there fig your sign all right cool so College Educators father father we're going into a recession you know we we need to be careful like we should we should you cut spending at the business business is over here this is where Nick sells his um you know knickknacks father says oh my gosh son like all these reports this you're right like we we should cut our spending my goodness you know you know what cost us a lot of money every month that damn billboard let's uh let's cut the expense on this this and uh let's let's you know get ready for for a potential recession uh and uh all of a sudden people don't know about Nick knicknacks anymore and oh my gosh my sales are plummeting what is going on says Nick Nick is very sad my goodness son you were right A recession is coming meanwhile the Billboard's empty nobody knows about a store right so on the business side there's a complexity when it comes to cutting of cutting like you know cutting off the hand that feeds you so to speak so you have to be very careful there's a lot of nuance that goes into the business side but uh there are often things that you know on a macro basis could be considered for delay or Cuts usually what businesses do uh is they will delay risky Capital expenditures right so let's take my real estate company for a moment uh house hack it's real a company if you're an accredited investor you can invest in it this isn't a solicitation for it and if you're not accredited we have a a non- accredited round coming soon we're advertising bonds at 5% and they convert into stock if the value of the company goes up blah blah blah more details on that different video different topic this isn't place for it but what we've done is you know we've realized we have many options to rapidly uh expand the business in uh in potentially slightly more risk on moves uh and for us like for example certain types of lending uh real estate related or you know ftech style lending in places where it doesn't exist in the real estate market based on equity and homes Beyond what's available with traditional lenders going into a recession uh that last portion of equity is the most uncertain in a property and that is the greatest risk so it might make more sense to delay uh risky allocations of capital like that in addition businesses usually will cut extraneous staff again you don't want to cut the hand that feeds you but extraneous staff where where projects can be handled inside that are great enough to handle uh the progression of the business but extraneous staff for potentially those expansionary projects or hey you might be useful one day those are the first sets of staff to unfortunately get laid off the earlier businesses do this the more Capital those businesses preserve the more insulated they are going into a potential uh risk on environment and the more at a more opportune time they are able to deploy into that risky uh you know riskier move which could be a big growth move for the company like oh maybe maybe Nick snck Knack is like you know what we're going to invest into making this an electronic billboard right so let's say it was a regular text textual sort of paper cardboard billboard if you will a painted billboard whatever uh maybe they want to invest into an electronic one well this is the paper one is probably good enough right now because the electronic one comes with risk you know you might convert 100 cars on the metal one how many cars are you going to convert on the electric one well we don't know that's a question mark you could convert 200 cars but you could also convert 50 cars so there is risk in in something that seems like it would be a Strategic investment but usually companies during uncertain Economic Times say let's not explore what that question mark is because we have less capability in a recessionary time to handle the potential negative externalities of a of the downside risks of this that we're unaware of you know hindsight is 2020 but when you're making decisions for the future it's very difficult to say oh yeah with certainty X will happen nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen so delaying risk staff layoffs extremely uh so uh the we talked about the ad risk okay good so that's that's enough on Biz let's now talk about a number five okay so number five has to do with your personal Credit Now personal credit is very interesting I recommend if you don't already have this you know you should know what your credit is download an app like credit card it's is not sponsored uh or or whatever you know there are plenty of apps that like let you check your credit and uh go in the App Store uh download some form of app uh and figure out what your credit is and then what I want you to do is I want you maybe after you establish your credit but I'd rather you do it now because you could always unfreeze what I want you to do is I want you to freeze your credit the worst thing that could happen to you is there's a downturn in the economy and then all of a sudden you lose your job you're trying to get a new job and they run your credit for your job and your credit score is 400 because somebody stole your identity and oopsy dupsies now you don't get the job or you can't get the loan or you can't start your business at the most opportunity time to do it because you know somebody hacked your identity everybody has your social security number and date of birth already they're on the black market they're available you're just waiting for that scumbag to go into Macy's open a credit card using a fake driver's license with their picture on it and your name and date of birth on it and then they type in your social number into the little pin pad and boom they steal your credit racking up thousands of dollars of expenses at you know Mac's or wherever and you don't even know about it it's how easy it is to seal your credit I want you to know that this is free okay you do not need to I mean you can uh but there are plenty of companies that offer these credit lock features and you have to be careful there's a lot of branding around this they try to sell you $30 monitoring Services a lot of these monitoring services are really just insurance and they say if your credit gets ruined will help you pay out some money to you and try to get back on your feet good luck it takes forever to get the claims done and all this it's better when that scumbag goes into Macy's and steals her credit I don't really want to deal with monitoring where somebody's going your credit was just stolen thanks bro and I don't really want to deal with an insurance company going hey I got robbed here insurance will you pay out on this well you know on Section 72 of our terms and conditions and and I just don't want to deal with that headache I I'd rather some scumbag go into Macy's and they try to put my credit uh number in and my name or their name my date of birth or whatever and social number and Macy's runs my credit and it comes back 0000 okay my credit comes back 0000 they're not going to issue me credit at Macy's and that's exactly what a credit freeze does now these are now uh by law mandated to be free uh so they are free credit freezes uh I'll just use these as bullet points now uh what you're going to Google is you're going to Google Experian credit freeze uh eifax credit free and Transunion credit frees they're free you should do it now because otherwise you'll never do it if you're anything like me you'll never do it unless you do it right now Google these Google credit free and then here's what you really got to know you can unlock it at any time it is a little bit of a pain in the butt because you got to get log in you got to save your two Factor your username password obviously save that all in a safe place uh and to unlock it you have to log in and press unlock and usually what I do is a temporary unlock so it automatically refreezes in the future so just consider that all right next this one's um a little more basic but I I don't think people really understand the risk sometimes that they're exposed to in jubilant markets everything goes up meme coin unprofitable companies profitable companies Great companies bad companies and everything in between everything goes up problem is what what happens when it comes down and so you really want to drisk something to remember is cryptocurrencies for example and this isn't a bash on cryptocurrencies it's just a fact have not been through what I would consider a real recession you know in 2020 we had a lot of pain but we got bailed out we had a 30-day basically recession and it was basically v-shaped recovery right this is the most money printing we've ever seen in the history of money printing it was ridiculous there'll be a lot of hesitance to this today which actually could potentially draw out a recession but cryptocurrencies haven't been around they were born out of the 2008 financial crisis they haven't been around long enough to prove that they could stay and survive through a recession uh there's a lot of risk here mostly because money Ates it's not like when the price of Bitcoin goes from $100,000 to $80,000 somebody made that $20,000 literally just evaporated Into Thin Air just like it was created out of thin air it disappears in thin air and that creates um a lot of risk for you depending on how much of your portfolio is exposed to assets that just haven't been tested during a recession so uh you know this this is not anti- blockchain you know I'm a big fan of blockchain and and uh you know the the goal of a decentralized common International Curr currency but it comes with severe risk so as uh as bluntly as we could put it in a non-financial advice way uh drisking is going to include uh crypto small caps uh you know honestly even large uh large caps and and even uh to a lesser extent right so I'll just put lesser because really everything as people flow money out of the indices large caps get affected heavily uh but even recession you know recession beneficiaries but this is where there are opportunities so an example of a recession you know beneficiary uh in my opinion would be something like a rocket mortgage brilliant move to acquire uh red fin by the way different topic or topic for a different video but a recession beneficiary is some a company that that might actually do very well as a result of of a recession uh I personally think you know my version of this is is my own company house Haack uh because we're you know without any Bank debt we're primed to take advantage of low interest rates and really good deals in real estate but uh a company like rocket mortgage with a lot of high interest rate mortgages on their books on their balance sheet I think or even other mortgage companies I don't it doesn't matter to me it could be any company uh these companies will benefit from rates coming down from ass surgeon refinancing in my opinion yes there will be job loss but even if we go to 20% unemployment that's 30 million people unemployed 30 million minus you know about 160 Workforce you have 130 million people employed usually the argument people make against mortgage companies is oh but but if unemployment's High who's going to be able to refinance okay well if unemployment's High you know the other 80% of people who are still employed can refinance so so yes uh when rates come down mortgage beneficiaries are you know mortgage companies are beneficiaries the downside is you could still go down in value before you get to the market realizing that and you get that upshot like I kind of think about it like all right quick analogy when you let's say you're sorry I'm a pilot so the jet references and plane references if you're you're coming into land on a plane like a propeller plane like a Cirrus or whatever and you you're like crap I got to go around I have an unstable approach and you want to go around you hit the gas and this thing just lifts uh and then you go you know stay below your critical angle of attack and get out of there all right bulk Landing you go around you have this instant power to that that's not how recession beneficiary stocks will work in my opinion those stocks will actually move more like a jet when it goes around so now this is interesting and you might not think this is how it works but it is it's incredible with a jet if you decide to go bulked at the same point and and you're going to go bulked landing you might you know try to pull up that nose but the actual trajectory of that plane's still going to sink probably for another 4 seconds or so uh and then all of a sudden you'll be able to rocket ship out the reason for that is there's a massive delay in in in jet engines uh so if you're an idle throttle and you go in you you could literally sit there and count to four like one two three it's crazy that analogy is I think useful for this because I think that's what could happen with a rocket mortgage where it's like oh all stocks suck all stock sucks all stock oh wow that company's really benefiting and it there's like this delay to when people realize it all right then um as with this there's something that I um wholeheartedly believe in uh it is a form of drisking but tip number this sounds basic but people listen to this and and then they don't listen to it because they think it's their money they think like their portfolio is now worth less it's not your money please please please please please please please get out of margin very dangerous realize that in real estate home equity line a credit a 30-year fixed rate mortgage or whatever you don't have the risk of a margin call whereas with uh more volatile um markets and and margin debt you have the absolute risk of having your portfolio liquidated at the worst possible time so margin debt is very very very very bad for the consumer uh in a in a rough economy that's pretty obvious but people still don't do it so hopefully this is your reminder to do it a little bit at a time you know maybe take a little bit of money off the table every every single day just slowly get out of the margin H all right now uh number eight you need to be resistant to AI so how do you become air resistant we have to figure out how you can provide more value to the economy whether that's you becoming a mortgage lender because you know you want to be part of that rocket ship uh it's becoming a real estate agent an architect an engineer a licensed contractor uh maybe you're working at you know whatever I I'll use this analogy you know and I feel very bad for people in this situation let's say you're the manager of a Target and you're a mom who's 38 years old uh single and you have two children it's very difficult in this situation to get ahead because you might be paycheck to paycheck in the situation with people helping take care of your children while you're at work and then you're stressed and exhausted after that this is a very difficult situation to get out of and it generally comes with having to figure out how can I provide more value to society is it going to be you know taking my managerial experiences and and this is a hard one it's tough to apply for jobs in this environment and so then you look and go okay well if you become a real estate agent now you literally spend no time with your kids because now you're trying to work nights and weekends you become a lender same thing but you could work from home uh you you know uh really the best thing you could try to do is try to look at what with your corporate experience what are other companies looking for is that learning sequel is it learning some form of you know coding management is it uh becoming a you know chartered financial analyst I I don't know whatever it is there's something you can study to help you get up the corporate ladder so you have to Leverage The Experience you have and take that brutal that hard time out of your day that extra cup of coffee uh and and really try to grind towards how can I go from being the store manager to a district manager to the next it is extremely difficult to do but you need to figure out somebody else has that job there are requirements for that job position figure out what those requirements are and go get it uh but this is true for everybody because you have to become AI resilient you have to figure out how can you get up the ladder to increase the income so increasing your resilience here is all just a euphemism basically for you need income up okay how do you get income up in a recessionary time it's hard have to figure out how to trip triple down on the value you provide you have to figure out how to uh increase the the uh qualifications that you have and you're just going to have to work more it sucks but is the most critical time to work harder and never give up do not give up good uh next time we have no idea how long this is going to take uh if there is an economic downturn you know may Trump could issue stimulus checks tomorrow and cancel all tariffs and and the market could go straight up we have no idea what's going to happen in the future but if we are going to go into a downturn it's worth noting that we have not had uh a very long downturn um well an extended downturn in 2008 2008 downturn was maybe 15 months uh in total uh depending on on where you measure it from some people like to measure it uh from January of 2008 uh to um uh March of' 09 is how some people measure it some people say that the true pain was actually only August to March which if you look at that you know this was actually a relatively short financial crisis uh that's what is that 4 months plus three that's about a 7-month financial crisis uh there an Extended draw down like something you've had coming out of the Great Depression you know where where you have lost 15 years of time or potentially more recent the 2001.com.ve during some of these Peak levels you didn't actually see a return of your money not on your money of your money for about 15 years so that's a very long time it's a Lost Generation really if you think about it and so I want you to think of your staying power are in the face of time constraints time time time I don't think we're going to see a 2020 whenever that next time hits 2020 kind of sort of recovery so uh recognize time is uh is a big requirement here uh which is challenging because we generally expect things to happen much more quickly and I'm a victim of that myself uh okay so now when is the time to actually buy the dip well the technical bottoms uh in recessions generally occur about 3 to 6 months before the end of the recession all right so how do we understand that well the end of recession uh is usually let's let's say it's here okay this is uh the actual end I'll just label this okay end of recession you know that's when it's actually over typically the stock market hits its lowest point uh and starts recovering sort of a v-shaped recovery if we will and usually they go higher uh after the recessions right so let's assume we came from there so there you go okay if the end of recession marker is here the stock it's very difficult to time but the bottom of the Market is usually here uh and the lag between this point and this point is generally about 3 to 6 months that's because the lowest point in the stock market is usually going to be at the time of most fear and panic it's generally not when the recession's over because the recession's over when you're already in recovery you when you're coming out of that turn right uh so the bottom will come before and one way that I think you can measure this the bottom uh is you could use this ticker this is no guarantee right but use this ticker TLT uh it is a bond ETF and uh the maturity of these is about 25 years us treasuries none of that matters uh like true recession fear pricing I'm going to give you a schedule no guarantees of this but I would say that $100 on TLT it's like 90 now is uh recession fear uh in okay recession fear priced in okay then I would argue that uh 120 is probably recession pricing uh so TLT goes up when when the economy is more poopy right Bond values are going up as yields are coming down I would argue that something in the range of 140 to 160 probably aligns with the bottom because that would be historically this is where TLT has peaked out uh and it is usually the sign of complete capitulation in markets so uh at this point at this indicator point it may make logical sense to just buy the dip on everything in the stock market uh obviously no guarantees but that would be a metric that I would look at so there you have it uh 10 ways to protect your wealth during the next downturn thanks for watching
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