저자: Kevin · 외국인
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일론 머스크의 DOGE 활동과 정치 참여가 테슬라 브랜드 가치와 수요를 훼손하고 있다고 주장. 테슬라 EPS 성장 둔화, PEG 기준 제조사 적정가 약 113달러, FSD·로보택시 성장 시 2026년 목표 약 244달러 등 밸류에이션 시나리오 제시. 호주·중국 판매 부진과 재고·현금흐름 압박을 지적하며 경기침체 리스크 강조. 결론적으로 단기 하방 리스크를 경계하고 장기 옵티머스·FSD에 대한 저가 매수 관점을 제시.
다듬은 글
we need to talk about a Tesla stock Tesla's evaluation is it worth buying what did Elon Musk just say what the future potentially holds and there's a lot in this first let's review some click Clips here from Elon musk's interview with Larry cudow now remember Larry cudow was Mr v-shaped recovery guy and the first thing that I want to start with is I love that Elon starts with humor at the beginning of the interview but boy by the end of the interview it starts feeling a little dark let me show you both of those clips and you can kind of get a sense for the frustration that Elon is feeling at the department of governmental efficiency how it's potentially Weighing on his other businesses and the difference between expectation full of Hope and enthusiasm and the reality of the nastiness of government and politics I'll tell you it makes me really second guess ever wanting to get involved in politics it's it's pretty ugly there settings fir to various uh Tesla charging stations near Boston uh shots were fired at a Tesla dealership uh in Oregon various nonviolent shots fired not a metaphor shots fired yes um downtown New York um marching marching against the Tesla uh showroom your stock is way down you've been criticized left and right but look on the right side I mean why why are you doing this always always look on the bright side of life yes okay that's the happy opening but look at how he transitions into the depressing portion yeah um you giving up your other stuff I mean what you how are you running your other businesses uh with great difficulty um yeah I mean but there's no turning back you're saying I'm just here trying to make uh government more efficient uh eliminate waste and fraud and so far we're making good progress actually so well unfortunately even this great progress at doge is Highly Questionable so first of all that clip of the interview there really makes you question what is elon's involvement at Tesla anymore is he actually still able to lead and Inspire it's important for a leader to be there and Inspire even if he can't be there every single day it's obvious that he's working and busy but if he's distracted on something that's actively hurting the business it turns into something that demoralizes employees which isn't good it's totally fine if he's working on something that's helping the business which is frankly what a lot of investors thought elon's involvement with the government would bring would be more regulatory Clarity for things like full self-driving or Optimus robots or rockets in the future or you know know electric vehicles or green energy or whatever unfortunately that optimism has been flipped on its head we've given up all of the postelection Tesla stock rally but it's more than that because people are starting to question well if Elon Musk is spending so much time on Doge and he's making mistakes there is he also potentially overly optimistic on things at Tesla I'll give you a couple of examples the first example comes from this clip in the interview where Elon Musk says that the Biden Administration was responsible for putting together a report that found half a trillion dollars of fraud in fact there was a report uh issued by by the ga GAO at the government accountability office um last year so J during the Biden Administration which estimated the the federal government fraud to be uh uh half a trillion dollars so just to be clear that's that's not a trump Administration thing that's a Biden Administration thing but wait a minute Elon Musk you said that this data was a Biden Administration thing not a trump Administration thing no that's not true this is a report that was released during the Biden Administration in 2024 but it actually covers a lot of trump years here see Trump was elected in 2016 he took office in 2017 his second year in office was 2018 third year 2019 fourth year 2020 okay then Biden had 21 and 22 that means three 3 fths of the years of this fraud were actually Trump Administration years so wait a minute Elon did you read the report now there are going to be people that are like Kevin you're just trying to hate on Elon no I'm not I and honestly it doesn't really matter if you think I'm trying to hate on them or not it doesn't matter I don't have shorts or Longs on this it doesn't matter here I'm going to give you valuation on Tesla St in a moment but I want to do this to provide you with perspective and insight because I think it's important when Elon Musk says he has 100 people working at Doge and he can't read reports that he's quoting during media interviews correctly then he loses credibility and if he loses credibility by misprescribing it's the same thing as when we hear the same argument that Donald Trump says that oh there are 20 million people that are dead on Social Security this has been studied and reviewed so many times yes there are 20 million dead people on the Social Security roles that is they're on the logs but that's different than them receiving payments the reason they're not removed from the logs is because it's been estimated was cost the government $9 million to go through and individually remove those people that aren't REM receiving payments but that are still on there and they're dead so yes they're dead names on the roles that doesn't mean they're getting paid they're just being left there but Don and Donald Trump and Elon haven't put in the effort to dive into that research and it's not that hard you can research it yourself but it's fine let's get past all this political mumbo jumbo uh and uh let's get into something that is not divisive at all like Ukraine and then Tesla's valuation oh wait okay quickly X was attacked today and this really does relate to Tesla okay because the more people Target Elon Musk the more people Target Teslas Teslas are targets for vandalism people are beginning to get afraid to park their Tesla vehicles around different parts of the country which is really bad because it's expensive to fix vandalism let's say you've wrapped Tesla and you really care for it and somebody Keys the snot out of it or damages it it could cost you three four $5,000 it might be excluded from your insurance coverage you might have to try to fix the damage yourself or out of pocket people just don't have that extra money lying around to fix these problems quick note a lot of insurance policies do cover vandalism but then it comes down to the deductible that you chose you chose a $5,000 deductible you may as well fix it out of pocket even $1,000 is a big hit we know that over 70% of Americans don't have an extra, available if an emergency were to pop up the consumer is suffering today people bought Teslas to save money not to potentially have to pay more money and crime is crime it shouldn't be happening but it is frustrating in because so now all of a sudden trying to make an economic or C cons conscious decision and and buy a money-saving car like a Tesla uh from the point of view of Maintenance or gas savings turns into into basically walking around with this exploding option for somebody to hit you with $3 to $5,000 of damage out of hate for Elon that similar hate for Elon is what we just saw targeted against uh X where X went down at least on the east coast and Midwest via a Cyber attack this morning Elon Musk suggests that Cyber attack originated from Ukrainian IP addresses there was a Cyber attack on X today which shut it down and may have been foreign sourced it's a big story you want to give us a moment on that uh well we don't we're not sure exactly what happened but there was a massive Cyber attack to try to bring down the EOS system uh with the IP addresses originating in the Ukraine area see it's entirely possible that those Ukrainian IP addresses were actually just VPN addresses so in other words the attacks were funnel through a VPN which everybody has access to these days I mean insert a VPN ad here okay I don't actually have a VPN ad Russia could have actually attacked X made it look like it was coming from Ukraine to again get Elon pissed with Ukraine getting him yelling at Trump to reduce funding for Ukraine so it's sort of like oh let's manipulate the useful Elon let's get into Tesla's valuation all right so the first thing that you have to know is the PEG ratio has fallen for Tesla which which is nice this is this is useful because it makes it a little bit less overvalued right eps4 2025 is projected to be $288 however revisions are coming down on Wall Street usually as a stock goes down Wall Street estimates follow it down this is unfortunate for a stock because it means institutions are really like you when your price is going up and they don't like you when your price is going down so there's somewhat of momentum in these price Target changes that actually leads you in the wrong direction right it makes you buy when it's at all-time highs it makes you sell when it's at lows so just take some of these estimates with a grain of salt Wall Street is estimating just $288 of projected EPS for 2025 part of that is because there's the potential of having the clining deliveries in 2025 which at this point uh absent new models that are not just refreshes of things like the model y it seems likely Tesla's EPS growth thereafter should be pretty good looking at potentially somewhere between 35.
59% uh next year then 28% then 20% Then 40.6 uh 26% over the next four years that works out to about 29.86 uh in adjusted earnings per share growth per year so if we take that growth that average growth of call it 30% and divide it into the PE Ratio that we have for Tesla now of 78.2 is uh you end up with a PEG ratio of just 2.63 now that's actually a relatively Fair valuation for a service-based company so let's say Tesla was uh you know essentially a full self-driving company with Robo taxis and they were providing a service a 2.63 multiple is entirely reasonable a multiple of 1.67 would be more reasonable for a manufacturer of cars and Energy Products like Solar Products or inverters or otherwise and face it selling for way cheaper than that they're less than one but that would put their fair value at closer to $113 at the estimates which is way lower than what we had in our previous numbers because the projections for Tesla's vehicle growth have plummeted uh and and their sales growth their EPS growth this is problematic because it does make you wonder okay so at today's price we're basically still fully pricing in FSD and at least some degree of Robo taxis but we don't know that artificial intelligence is going to be good enough to get us across that Finish Line are we going to have you know crew Chevy Cruise style controllers trying to remote control Teslas if they break down or they miss an edge case scenario probably not because this is supposed to be a vision based system then you have AR arcial intelligence folks uh who say Tesla's not going to be able to solve this until we get to artificial general intelligence because there are too many Edge case scenarios and as we know most Tesla drivers do take over driving the vehicle in Edge case scenarios which actually means you're providing less Edge case scenario data to a lot of these training alos now of course you could use the the human input and the recorded input from the human but that seems to be less valuable than actually showing that the AI can handle the situation who knows the point is Tesla's valuation on a service and FSD basis has fallen to reasonable levels this is a good thing if you see Tesla as just a manufacturer it's still overpriced by about a factor of two it should be about $113 now if you see it as an FSD Robo taxi service it's decently priced right now it actually might be a good price to buy if that's your opinion especially since you're not really incorporating into that price any of the Future Hope on Optimus robots and you're incorporating a lot of hate you know the the swastica cars that are getting graffitied shots fired against Tesla stores cyber trucks you know getting lit a blaze there's a lot of pain let's get into some more fundamentals and financials all right fundamentals from a fundamental point of view the company has a lot of cash their margins have obviously compressed substantially I mean if you look over here we we can see total revenues in 2024 were about $97 billion that's quite a lot of money their gross profit was about $17 billion well in 2022 their revenues were actually about $16 billion lower and their gross profit was about $3 billion higher this is what happens when there's margin compression okay we've already seen that margin compression the stock has already acknowledged that we know margin compression occurs when there are companies that have a lack of pricing power it's actually one of the inspiring factors that we hadn't talked about before that uh I closed an ETF that I had which I started at the bottom of the market in November of 2022 great time to start we return somewhere around 24 25% for investors uh now close that in February because I'm looking going there just no pricing true pricing power opportunities walking into a potential recession now all of a sudden you've got NASDAQ selling off you've got the S&P 500 selling off you've got Tesla down 15 something perc uh and so it's no surprise I mean look look at this timing I wish I had a an option on this timing look at this timing meet Kevin pricing power ETF a year to dat actually had a return whereas the NASDAQ lost 7% CU it just falls off everything fell off a cliff at the end or at the beginning of March here which In fairness we have been warning Could Happen we've been saying this for many months now that we need to watch the beginning beginning of the year data to see if hope actually turns into reality and so far that hope isn't actually turning into reality uh but what else do we have in terms of the financials well I want to say the balance sheet is really strong you should already know this about Tesla the balance sheet is fantastic you can't say anything negative about this you've got $ 36.5 billion in cash $1 billion of inventory $4 billion of receivables no cash issue here because you only have 25.5 in payables so if I mean you've got free cash here if I add this together here 36.5 + 12 + 4 obviously uh inventory and receivables aren't cash so we need to Discount those let's discount that by about four so say they have 48.5 billion of free cash we've got 25.5 of um total current liabilities due by the end of the year that leaves us about $23 billion of free cash well we could build a couple gigafactories with that like the the cash Tesla has available is great this is a fantastic uh situation because it makes it less likely that Tesla's going to be forced to raise money in the stock market to issue now if you look at their cash flow uh statement you could see on cash flows they certainly create less cash flow than they previously did look at 2022 they brought in uh cash from investing activities of about 14 sorry cash from operating activities of about $ 14.7 billion and then they spent about seven on uh Capital expenditures so that's like seven over $7 billion of free cash flow it's amazing you can see that's narrowed for the entire year the entire year that's narrowed to about $3 billion so it's it's certainly compressed quite a bit about $3.5 billion but still that's a 50% compression in free cash flow again they don't need it so it's okay it gives them cushion to sell cars for less money and keep those volumes up the problem is estimates for Tesla deliveries aren't doing so freaking hot now a lot of people were referring to the model y refresh is slowing down some of these deliveries and a lot of people refer to Australia as potentially a sign that there's infinite demand for Teslas because you can't get the rear wheeel drive uh model wide we went into this in detail in the course member live stream this morning so I don't want to go into terrible detail uh right now but it's worth noting that there are exchange rate issues uh there are luxury vehicle taxes uh that you have to deal with the gsts you have to deal with stamp duties you have to deal with byd is actually a competitor in the Australian Market as well uh it's also worth noting that you have cars that need to be configured to drive on the left side of the road which is a little bit more challenging to manufacture for Australian and New Zealand clean car discounts expired so a lot of things actually hurting demand for Tesla's overall in Australia leading current numbers for Australia to show that Tesla sales are down 71% year-over year but why are the model yse sold out then well mostly because as they they introduced the rear wheel model as available in Australia and manufactured and China what you found was Tesla threw in almost every incentive Under the Sun lowest priced vehicle free supercharging and other benefits including full self-driving to make it a steal of a deal it's kind of like a pull forward of demand and an expiring coupon code essentially to try to get people excited speaking of coupon code there's no coupon code right now but uh we are listening to your feedback some folks are looking for a less expensive maybe pay over time or just a monthly subscription service where you can kind of sign up and if you don't like the courses the course member live streams the alpha Port whatever you could just cancel right so like you pay one month at a time or maybe you pay Upfront for six months or whatever right and so that way it's a lot more manageable in these harder times to be part of the research that we do together every morning in the course member live streams uh so anyway this this you know idea that Australian demand is is you know such a sign of global demand just doesn't line up with the data uh it doesn't line up with the data in Europe it doesn't line up with the data that we're seeing in California with registrations and it just doesn't align with the estimates that we're seeing from people like Troy Tesla uh teslik Troy teslik just wrote uh just about a week ago that Tesla deliveries this quarter are expected to be the lowest that they have been in the past 10 quarters TR teslik also suggests that Tesla's facing severe competition in China with Brands such as zomi having 34 to 37 week wait time for their model while their production is running at alltime highs for the zomi vehicles well at the same time the model y Juniper model yeah it has a little bit of a weight but it's like 2 to four week not great so there's something else potentially driving competition in China The Wall Street Journal had a piece out on this where they argue that when it comes to buying cars in China people are not brand loyalists they just pick the cheapest car that gives them the best bells and whistles a lot of competition from byd and others in fact Bloomberg uh surveillance had a research report that Tesla may have lost about 26% in brand value after Elon Musk got involved with his government Affairs and unfortunately that is a shot heard around the world okay now let's get into the spreadsheet we've talked about the spreadsheet many times before in the past and I have not updated it since we last did our update and what you'll see in my last update is I give them a PEG ratio multiple of uh about 1.67 which is a PE ratio of 50 at about a 30% growth growth rate that gives them a reasonable price target for the end of 2026 of 244 but this is based on 3 million vehicles to be delivered in 2026 if I make the present value oh that's funny the present value I wrote last time was hey you should aim for $200 well now it's about $221 at the time of this recording this projection would only give you about a 5% return on investing in the stock for the next 2 years well through the end of 2026 so slightly less than 2 years that's a 5% compounded return that is okay but that's based on 3 million vehicle sales the problem is if we're at negative growth this year in 2025 and we only end up getting you know 1750 cars you know 1,750,000 cars then we're at a slight negative in terms of production how are we going to go from 1750 to 3 million that doesn't seem realistic anymore because that would be 7 1% growth so let's go with 1750 1.75 million Vehicles produced let's give them a the assumption that we're going to go back to 30% growth 1.3 okay cool well 1.3 would look like two 275 so 2,275 uh th000 cars produced okay if we leave everything else the same 18% margin energy sales still massive at 26 billion this is a huge Bump by the way we still leave uh margins that we have uh as set for some of these other items you can pause and see that on screen that would bring Tesla down to a valuation of about $23 so this is obviously significantly higher than just taking a PEG ratio multiple of the Wall Street estimates right this is a rebuilding of of the estimates based on how many vehicles we think they could deliver that said it relies on this boost in energy see if I take this energy boost back down to about 15 billion because you know we're in a recessionary time all of a sudden the future value at the end of 2026 might only be about $170 and if we just can't get to vehicle growth and we're we should be happy with getting to Just 2 million Vehicles A Year Without a price reduction you're sitting at about 155 to really go bullish here what you need is you need the revenue Boost from energies $26 billion of of V which is very bullish that doesn't assume a recession and you need some lower cost vehicle that's really going to get us somewhere to maybe like 4 million Vehicles produced which would be fantastic and who knows maybe that'll come out so far it seems like we're just getting lower cost refresh versions like a refresh model Y which we've ever seen or refresh Model S or X at a lower price basically ways of trying to get pricing power back which is hard to do in this sort of environment when people don't have extra capital or money for Capital expenditures what do you end up with well I mean then you can get to a $300 price Target in which again is is much more reasonable than some of the insane numbers that Tesla stock has been trading for after the Trump rally but the Trump rally we knew was detached from fundamentals now we're actually having a fundamental discussion again so the numbers are actually such that they're getting juicier again they're still rich but they're way better than where they were again it just comes down to what what do you think do you think we can double the number of vehicles Tesla is going to produce but 2026 or the other thing that you do is you go to like let's say 2030 and you assume that they're going to sell you know 5 million rooc cabs at uh you know some kind of large margin larger than they have now you go to maybe instead of an 82% expense ratio you go with um an expense ratio of only uh I don't know let's go with uh 78 this will give you 22% profit margins you know High profit margin car assuming there's not substantial competition and everybody wants this hell you know what go even to 75 okay so the expenses are only 75% to produce the car so if they sell a car for $30,000 a rooc cab their expenses would be 225 and their profit would be $7,500 including the FSD and everything people throw this into the fleet okay great now we can get to a $500 price target with 5 million Vehicles sold by 230 and a 25% margin you know now you want to get really excited throw uh throw some Tesla bot Revenue in here so let's assume they have a 30% margin on the Optimus robot which would be great they sell 34 billion dollars of Tesla Bots and they have uh you know expenses of 24 bill that gives them an extra 10 billies uh of uh of income basically which is absolutely fantastic right uh so let's sum this all up here let's see total expenses let's make sure we have our total expenses in here let's make sure we have total revenues to include include the Tesla bot there we go so total revenues now include the Tesla bot we added total expenses now include the uh you know 30% margin over on the Optimus bot right here and uh we scroll down what do we get to we get to about a $600 Target you know and that's on a manufacturing multiple so if you want to go to a service multiple sure I could take this to the moon and and you can make some delicious returns between now and 2030 but you could see there's a lot of of real work to be done here we're not in a place yet where we have Optimus robots for sale how am I supposed to project to 2030 you know what if we can't solve the FSD problem what if we can't get Tesla sales up uh in the near term it's just going to take a while to see where these things move now I'm optimistic on the Tesla bot but near term wall Street's going to have a headache trying to do valuations on this when their sales are still negative for uh uh for their vehicles and the margins are not this high so that does become a little bit more challenging and uh and that is what keeps Tesla stock probably you know at uh $200 at closer to a 2026 price Target got a couple years to go through for that now how would Tesla respond in a recession well in 2022 there were plenty of jobs available and If We Had A recession a real recession in 22 my thesis was that more people could buy Teslas because rates would be lower and higher income white collar workers would have plenty of discretionary income to buy Teslas the problem that came after that was we ended up having you know two more years two and a half three or more it's actually probably more like three years of growth now up to the beginning of 2025 here and so the recessions basically coming 3 years later after people have spent all their extra discretionary excess savings and the jobs Market is harder now this means Tesla is now actually uniquely more at risk of a recession so how do you buy Tesla well my take is if you don't think there's a recession you could probably think about buying the dip for that longer term Optimus future and and maybe full self-driving future but there are a lot of risks that come with that including AI development can we actually get to that or do we have to wait for AGI which we're nowhere close to uh alternatively if we recession you probably have to ask yourself how much is a recession actually being priced in and right now that answer seems to be very little anyway these are just some of my thoughts on Tesla stock hopefully it's helpful to you igh
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