저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴(AVGO) 주가가 최근 이틀간 30%이상 급등해 시총 1조달러를 넘었다. CEO의 AI 매출 600~900억달러(2027년) 전망과 AI 매출 급증(3.8억→128억달러 추정)이 근거로 제시됐다. 애플의 자체 칩 전환 우려에도 AI 빌드아웃 수혜가 부각됐다. 진행자들은 주가 급등에 따른 FOMO 매수 관점을 논하며, 자금이 엔비디아에서 빠져나와 브로드컴으로 이동했다고 해석했다. 다만 일부 애널리스트 전망은 추정치임을 짚었다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to nextg investing it's now time for fomo so we are revisiting all things broadcom following a phenomenal week last when we saw shares surge 24% on Friday which then s ped its market cap to over $1 trillion doll as they joined that Elite group of stocks that are now valued at over 1 trillion which just feels ridiculous but this is the world we're living in Alex and so this morning we're seeing another pretty nice jump that is held actually throughout today's session this is following all of the momentum from from their CEO that said AI could generate 60 to 90 billion by 2027 but I also think the most important thing that was really set on their earnings call was the fact that they believe that the growing demand for chips and AI technology will help the big Tech shift away from some of nvidia's very expensive processors which could benefit a name like I mean broadcom so that that's the they said was reflected in their guidance AI revenues in particular are the bright spot of growth as they've risen from 3.8 billion last year to now over 12.8 billion in 2024 their non-core segments have pulled back to about 20% growth but gosh I mean relative to some of it its peers that's actually not bad considering they're still tracking double digit percentage growth and the analysts are loving this name I think no surpris there that we're seeing lots and lots of upgrades and lots of bullish commentary I mean BFA calling it a surging AI opportunity my favorite note though was the one that we're looking at from this morning where Bernstein said the fourth quarter earnings were decent decent is just and again I actually don't entirely disagree but decent is just such a funny way to describe it when we've seen shares gain like 30% plus of their value in the last two sessions so there's a lot to explore here and I think you just said it was Bank of America who said it's a um surging AI opportunity ie with two of those words it is surging and it's an AI name I don't know that you can still say it's an opportunity after to just move 37% in two sessions so to me this is one of those situations where it's like a lot of these analysts were asleep at the wheel this has clearly been one of the winners of AI this whole time it was a bit of a stealth mover it was in the background a little bit more and I think now what you're seeing is it's come to the surface very very publicly in terms of it being you know forcing the acknowledgement that it's a winner um and so when I look at this we we broke these results live Oliver renck and I on Market on close and we're watching the transition of a company that was sort of a value consistent you know really strong relationship Apple supplier that had consistent numbers consistent Revenue stream to this hyper growth potential name and that requires a whole new multiple but it couldn't have happened at a better time because we also have headlines that are happening basically alongside this basically saying Apple's trying to cut them out and while they're working on some AI chips and stuff together they basically said we're also making this in-house chip to basically replace the need to to work with with broadcom and this has always been an overhang for broadcom but now that overhang is far overshadowed by the fact that they're going to be a key player in this AI buildout that is still being built out and so I look at this say uh you know kudos to the company positioning itself and and doing uh what good companies do which is when one door starts to close make sure that next one is open and you're in your halfway through the through the entrance yeah and I will say I I do feel like these projections while I can appreciate them I mean all they are is projections like the CEO saying 60 to 90 billion dollars in revenue and AI sure okay that's a projection and then also I was reading this note from TD Cowan saying that they see the broadcom could capture 50 billion of the total 90 billion Opportunity by 2027 given their 70% market share in 2024 but again that's a projection that is more of a market call the second one but the company coming out giving you numbers I mean they have a a legal requirement to do do diligence and and give the best information that they have they may want to paint that information as rosy as and optimistic and explain it the best that they can but they can't just make numbers up and say it otherwise I mean we'd be we talking about like criminal activity and so that's true they have a a fiduciary responsibility uh to shareholders into the street to to give real numbers and so I'm not going to Discount those numbers significantly they might miss them they might beat them but those are real good faith estimates now this analyst projection they might have 50 billion by x amount of time that's a guess that okay then that is a great distinction because I I agree they're not just making these projections up but I guess when it comes to AI when we revisit all the commentary we heard into this past year I you feel like there was all these these total addressable markets of growth and granted we have seen companies benefit from that no doubt broadc is one of those but you have to then continue to grow and then that I mean that really comes down to then can your stock continue to outperform and that's I think then the major question the nice thing about broadcom is it does have a really stable strong Core Business this is just kind of like you know the Cher on top of of the Sunday they've got a really nice Sunday going for them as they were already a massive company uh you know hundreds hundreds of billions of dollars it's just this AI buildout has given the street A New Perspective on what they can become and so in the context too of Nvidia starting to see a rotation out of it don't know if this is a two week period that that's going to happen don't know if this is a new prolonged Trend where money is being taken out of a name like Nvidia but that money looks for a new home it's not just going to cash clearly look at what Tesla's doing you know we we promised we'd mention it Tesla is at 460 a share this stock was what 2 20 before the election 240 250 I mean it's doubled basically over the last few months and then broadcom 37% in two sessions I mean these are the kind of moves that only can happen if if money is coming out of somewhere like in Nvidia and looking for a new home and and that's a great point and also I think that it helps that it's its PE ratio is lower than competitors like Nvidia so at that point you could say and it's starting to swell and that makes sense because we're looking at this company different that was sort of my first point which is historically this was not a Super Hyper Growth Company it might be now it might be now and and yeah that that is definitely I think the the argument that many are feeling like they miss missed the boat which is why it's actually truly like a great fomo candidate when you look at the move I mean now 53% this month so far and that the majority of that happened in the last two trading sessions frankly also now I was revisiting the S&P 500's best and worst stocks and performance bases on the year and this now is number six which I just don't feel like it was it was on the radar now it it's I mean like a top six name as far as its performance one thing too to note with this company before we look at an example trade too is while it's been a winner within this space it's just now starting to see those astronomical swelling of the growth figures where where Nvidia was seeing like 400% Revenue growth and things like that for the last few years I mean in July of 2023 that that third quarter of 2023 broadcom's Revenue growth was was 5% in the fourth quarter of 23 it was 4% but now it's had 34 43 47 51 it's accelerating and the numbers are tenfold what they were the year prior totally different environment uh for investors and I think that's explains why there's so much excitement right now there is and I mean the street I mean you could just read there's like 15 notes out this morning that highlight everything that we've said in in so many words so yeah the street is loving this name and today's price is definitely reflective of that as we are hanging on to a nice 10.6% rally on the session I mean outperforming this Market frankly shocking me when I logged in and saw this move this morning so when we trade this name now of course for example purposes I mean we are at pretty much levels never seen before and actually inching to just now take out that session high as we speak so momentum is looking strong price is looking strong and if you're a believer in AI you'd also say this name is poised well into 2025 yeah well I wish I could go back in the time machine and brought this trade uh you know when I had sent it because the stocks already moved dramatically from that point at the time the stock was closer to $240 a share and I looked at the 2425 247 a half call vertical expiring next Friday so keeping it consistent short dated two week uh long trade here well now the Stock's at 248 this spreads entirely in the money so at the time it was a $2 debit I'm sure it's greater than that now uh so maybe if you were looking at this trade in real time you still saw upside maybe you'd look at like the 250 255 for a comparable type of a trade uh but debit spend is the risk so using what we had earlier as the for the illustration purpose uh a $2 debit means $200 in risk and that $5 widespread net of the $2 leaves three means you can make $300 on this 2445 was the break even so goes to show these names that are on the Move they're just continuing to be on the Move Tesla moved some like $15 from when Kevin had looked at an example trade on Fast market rodom doing the same here to me moving like $10 so uh got to keep your head on a swivel on these markets at the moment you really do and and thank goodness for broadcom with a nice move today because the rest of tech actually is is hanging on into the green but Nvidia of course is our lagger still down about 2.4% on the session but we will leave it there e
Comments 0