저자: JoeTerranova · 외국인
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Joe Terranova는 2025년을 앞두고 주식(에쿼티) 비중을 유지하되 방어 장치를 두는 전략을 제시했다. 12월 10일 발표될 인플레이션 지표가 시장의 큰 변수이며, 연준의 금리 인하와 달러 약세가 미국 주식에 긍정적이라고 봤다. 알파벳은 양자컴퓨팅 칩(Willow) 발표 이후 긍정적으로 보며 보유 의사를 밝혔고, 브로드컴은 AI 인프라의 연결 역할을 강조하며 실적 발표를 앞두고 기대를 드러냈다. 마이크로소프트는 Azure 클라우드를 AI 성장의 핵심으로 보고 중장기적으로 긍정적이다. 기술적 분석(Rick Ducat)은 각 종목의 지지·저항 구간을 제시했다.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Trading 360. I'm Nicole Petallides live on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. It's time for the big three. Three stocks, three charts, three trades. And Rick , Joe Terranova, portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund. Good to see you both. Good morning. Joe, how you feeling big picture about the market?
Yeah, big picture I'm broadly optimistic. Now, that's not to say there might be some blips along the road. Tomorrow is a very crucial day. We're going to get the inflation data. It's going to be really important for the stock market. I think there could be a big move off of that data. And this is happening at a time we're in the middle of December.
Seasonally, it's a time of low volatility. So, just kind of outlines my broader strategy of being in stocks, in these equities with some protection. Absolutely, I think this is a very appropriate time for it. I think there certainly could be an outsized move to the upside or downside throughout the rest of this week.
But, I for 2025, I absolutely want to be in equities. Understood. So, what's with Alphabet? Why do you have this one on your radar today? Yeah, it's exciting to hear this kind of new technology, this quantum computing. It's got me all geeked out and excited about it. I think they learned from their previous announcements and rollouts.
You know, they really had facepalm like flop on their AI rollout. This is coming out as an announcement is coming off a much better perceived by the market. Now, having said that, this might be a little bit of just hype ahead of any like actual real value for the company. It's something is super cool.
It's they're on the road map to producing something which will produce them a lot of potential. It has a lot of potential for for profits, but it's something I think is super cool. It's I think it's getting people just geeked out about the whole Alphabet ecosystem. There's a lot to go into that. There's a lot to like for the future for Alphabet.
All right, a lot discovered there that you just spoke about. Thank you for all of that. So, what do you think Rick when you take a look at the charts? Google presents an interesting setup here because on one hand we have a triangular type pattern here between our two blue dash trend lines here. One starting with this low that we held just above the previous 52-week low.
We're up like 41% from that point connecting these subsequent lows here. Then you could draw another one going off the highs 191.75. From that point we're down like almost 5% or so. Um, you know, and connecting these points. So, so big picture was a triangle for really quite a while here during this trading year.
But big gap up today breaking above blue trend line here. And then I was considering more like a channel type shape here. We've got our white trend line matches up pretty well with a lot of the high points. Uh, but then we have this kind of cluster of another set of highs. So, I kind of did both. You can draw multiple different trend line support and resistance lines for stuff like this here.
So, this gives us kind of a range to watch. That happens to be about where we stalled out here. We're now below the upper boundary of that our initial channel area here. So, so kind of a falling back within the range where price has spent a lot of time here kind of within these two two lines here. However, RSI looking pretty good though.
We broke above a downward sloping bearish red trend line on the RSI there. Our uh, steeper darker green trend line you can see us come into play taking the place of our more shallow sloping lighter green trend line here. So, momentum looking pretty good as we move upward here. Now, when we look at volume profile we can see a few you know, maybe some minor volume close to where we are near like 182.
But the big areas are are much further down 175, 176, 164 around that area here. And 176 looks like an important area. Sideways consolidation, gap highs and lows, uh you know, an area where we struggled to kind of make our way above and then stop ultimately before our gap up today. So, now to kind of zoom in, look at the support and resistance more closely, we can see to the upside, red line right here kind of matches up with our resistance zone that we highlighted earlier.
So, like 185 to 188 or so would be a mark to beat. And then right here, we've got our old highs and our plus one standard deviation channel. So, around like 192, 193. To the downside, right about here, we've got our uh green uh uh support line we mentioned, a big volume node. So, 175, 176 looks like a reasonable place for traders to start looking for a foothold.
Yeah, understood. And you know, just so much talk about how Alphabet is more than just Google. I was reading about, as you were talking about, Joe, um the the chip, the Willow, is just a reminder, the Willow chip is is a reminder that it's more than Google. I mean, even though there's been a lot of scrutiny on this name, the potential, uh um as you said, has upside.
Final thoughts on this name? Yeah, we got the gap higher today, um you know, on the positive news. Maybe it'll pull back. Something I'll be looking to add to if I'm on a on a if it does pull back. Uh but yes, will be a name I'm going to be holding for the foreseeable future because of it it just has so much going for it.
Uh and it's really just going to be supporting their core business on top of it, which of course is uh they do have a mo- they still are the leader in uh the internet advertising and search. All right, up next, we're looking at uh Broadcom, which one year is up 83%. It's off the recent high of 186. Some of your thoughts on this name?
Yeah, here's a name uh pulling back today, actually. Maybe a little risk-off sentiment. Some of the semis aren't doing so well. Uh I kind of view it as just a big cog or big part of the AI infrastructure play. We know about Nvidia, they're the engine, they're just really the really fast race car that's out there speeding us along through this AI innovation.
But a race car is only as good as its roads. It needs to be capable to connect places. A really fast car doesn't mean anything on a dirt road. You need fast roads, you need fast connections. That's where Broadcom comes in. They connect all of the machines together with their routers, their ethernet, their 5G, etc.
And you look and see all of these you know, all of these data centers being built, you know, this expansion in IT infrastructure. If you're a believer in Nvidia for next year, if they're going to be able to, you know, basically double their revenue by selling a whole bunch more of their huge processing units, they're going to need to be connected to each other.
So, Broadcom is going to be lifted in that in that tide as well. All right. What do you think here when you take a look at this chart here? Rick DuPree. You know, kind of a zigzag type pattern here. We had this big gap upward on earnings after a period of sideways consolidation here. Drop-off kind of you know, a W type shape price move here.
And then kind of drifting downward once more. So, kind of the major price patterns were this downward sloping yellow trend line. Now, the prevailing shape is an upward sloping channel between our two blue dashed lines here. Just conventional trend line drawn across the lows. Duplicated it, matches up pretty well with the highs.
That's That's how we would you know, just attempt to draw a channel like this here. But now, we also have another smaller channel that's pointing downward here between our two white lines. We did manage to recover above our two moving averages, yellow 21-day and orange 63-day. Even though we didn't quite make it above that downward sloping trend line, it was a bit more encouraging of a price move here.
RSI on the other hand, maybe a bit of a disappointment for for traders because we did break above that 50 midline, but we kind of had a false breakout above this longer-term bearish trendline. So, you know, false move, stuff like this can happen. Price not really reversing to the same extent here that RSI did, but you know, be careful of fake outs.
Don't make your decisions based on just one indicator here. Now, to overlay our volume profile study, we can see the key areas are around 170 and kind of one like 60 or so. Those are the two big pockets of volume close to where we are now. And we also have some pretty obvious range boundaries to consider here.
We have our low point right here that lines up with our minus one standard deviation channel. So, like 159, 158 around that level here. And then we have our high point here. That was initially our 52-week high that we formed after earnings. About the same point we topped out two more times. So, if we do manage to push above our blue linear regression line, 185, that's really the the point to beat to the upside.
Paves the way for the plus one channel, 203.78, the plus one standard deviation channel. All right. I like how you don't get faked out by one thing. I I love that. Final thoughts, Joe, on this name and then I want to get to Microsoft. Yeah, I'm super excited about earnings coming up. I think that will change the narrative.
It's really going to be important for the rest of the semiconductor index or broadly just is this IT growth still happening or not? I want to see that earnings. So far, the story has been the the expectations have been lofty. They've been close to beating those expectations on on these cases so far.
So, I'm expecting the same for Broadcom. Yeah, understood. I mean, Microsoft has been incredible. People The shareholders have been very happy over many years with great dividends and great performance. One year up 20%. Some of your thoughts on where this could be headed. What can drive Microsoft in the direction that you have in mind?
Yeah, just another part of the AI story. They're all about their cloud, the Azure, has just given them a ton of revenue and that will be the the narrative going forward. We need these big data centers, we need this storage, we need this computing processing power. That's exactly where Microsoft is and if we're going to see new software coming online, new adaptations of this AI from not just like the Mag 7, but from like the garage startups of the world, we're going to see it on these cloud spots.
So that's that's the next wave which I'm looking forward to. Microsoft's going to be there. The Mag 7 are going to be there for it, but I want to see these startups coming up from the ground up and they're going to they're going to use the cloud in order to take advantage of the next wave of AI innovation.
So yes, I'm I'm here for that. You know, their Windows is great, their phones are great, everything else, Xbox is great, but for me it's all about the Azure and their their cloud. Sure. Yeah, I would say a lot of folks would probably agree with you on that. Rick, what do you think of the chart? Uh you know, big breakdown that we saw after these 52-week highs near about 468 or so, you know, big collapse to the downside here culminating with these lows on August 5th.
A very important day for so many stocks. You know, broader weakness in the Japanese market, etc. It took us below our purple 252-day EMA, something we hadn't seen for for a good while there, but we did manage to recover above it. And then the shape was once again kind of the symmetrical triangle type shape here.
Connecting the highs and the lows gave us this increasingly narrowing range in which price was traveling. Sideways moving averages sideways to modestly down here showed that there wasn't really a great clear trend direction here, but now things are pushing to the upside. I believe it's 11 of the past 12 candles are green here and something kind of curious here.
You know, we had our our triangular pattern. You also could draw a trend line starting here and here. Looks like it was broken, but then you can see how often it was a stopping point for price both to the upside and the downside. That's about where we topped out here recently. I kind of wonder if that would be something to keep an eye on going forward here.
Nevertheless, RSI trending upward breaking out of a similar triangular type pattern here quite close to the overbought area, but not quite there yet. Look for a push above that that trend line and for the RSI to follow suit for further confirmation. Now we can see volume here near about 450 and then everything a big lump you know, kind of an area to watch on our volume profile between like 405 to 425.
Not super great as a trading range for specific price targets here, but kind of this is a big important area to keep an eye on here. To the upside, plus one standard deviation channel lines up with a high here that we saw during our our downswing. So around like 455, 457. That could be a resistance point to watch.
Green line right here. Gap level, subsequent highs around around that point. So like 440, 435 would be another downside point to watch. All right, Rick Cat. Thank you for those charts today. Joe, I'll tell you a lot of folks we just had on Rup Data who you know has 10 billion under management. He was feeling pretty optimistic for the new year.
Is that your takeaway for most of the folks you're talking to? Yeah, and that's my takeaway too. You know, tomorrow's inflation data is going to be really big and broadly speaking if the Fed is able to be aggressive in lowering their rates back down to normalization as they call it. We have an economy that's still chugging along, interest rates that are a little bit lower and we maybe have the dollar we falling too if if that happens.
So I think it'll be really good news for US stocks and there's reasons to be optimistic. Now that's not to say the new year will bring some some turbulence, some volatility the around the world there are challenging times to say the least. So, uh yes, I'm excited about the new world, but I'm also just uh just cautiously optimistic with protection with my equities.
All right. Thank you, Joe Terranova. Great to see you. Rick Ducat as well. Good to see you both.
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