저자: PhilPanaro · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적(분기 매출 350억 달러, 마진 50%)을 근거로 2030년 주가 800달러 전망. AI 침투율 1% 미만, 웹3 전환 시장 8~12조 달러, 머스크 DOGE 정부효율화를 '제2의 맨해튼 프로젝트'로 묘사하며 장기 성장 강조. 옵션 전략(브로큰윙 버터플라이, 현금담보 풋매도)도 함께 소개.
다듬은 글
welcome back to morning trade live it's time to go inside out on Nvidia earnings Nvidia just hitting new record highs and wait till you hear my next guest's prediction joining me right now Phil panaro founder and former CEO of BCG plinian it's great to see you Nicole thank you for having me welcome $800 by 2030 so you say it so I can hear it yes I I believe in video will hit 800 by 2030 I look at things from a long-term perspective and from a technology perspective but just based on the numbers that were released today yeah solidify that view and I'll give you an example and I think it's important to just I'll talk about the numbers once and then we'll move on to how the technology drives the numbers so today they've reported 35 billion in one quarter which is 3 months they had a total of 27 billion over 12 months last year right so that means in 3 months they exceeded their entire 2023 earnings by $8 billion I'm not sure there's a stock in the history of the exchange that has driven that much in billions in Revenue well also achieving 50% margins so if you do the math on that 35 a quarter they're already at a 140 clip in terms of Revenue and in order to achieve the uh prediction of 800 by 2030 they need to be at 600 billion in Revenue so we're right on Target and look I mean you had Jensen Wong talking about the Demand Being incredible um more and more demand for the black o chips and those are already out in the hands of some of the uh companies and being integrated and everything um the big picture here seems pretty strong overall um you talk about the technology of it and you're spinning it even into the government um a way that maybe we did talk about this yes so let's talk about the three drivers for NVIDIA and why I'm so bullish on it the first driver is the AI Revolution which everybody talks about and the penetration right now on AI is literally less than 1% so that's important to take into consideration based on the performance they've already achieved the second which nobody talks about is the transition from web 2 to web 3 Morgan Stanley Goldman and City Bank have all given estimates of that from8 to 12 trillion by 20 30 8 to 12 so we'll use the midpoint which is 10 10 billion 10 trillion right now there's less than one trillion spent on web 3.0 which means it has an opportunity to grow 10 times more so that's why the where the stock is now which is around 140 going to 600 is actually a very conservative prediction but there's a new thing that came up based on your question which was the government they just started musk and VC started the department of government efficiency which is looking at how you cut waste from the government now they call this the second Manhattan Project and nobody's spoken about this the first Manhattan Project is when they created the atomic bomb which is changed the way Wars have fought and it was a GameChanger they call this the second Manhattan Project and the reason why if they do it right is they're going to reinvent how government is managed and delivered and I want to give specific examples the federal government has over 300 ,000 buildings they're the largest building owner in the US you can take all of those buildings and you can build digital twins for them and you can operate and maintain them off your phone using AI in addition to that all the government infrastructure you can build digital twins for and you can actually drive those with through Ai and the cost will come down tremendously and to give you an example of because people talk about is AI have a value and I don't I've never talked about this on the show but I actually built the market surveillance system that drives the NASDAQ Market catches people for insider trading trade reporting it used to take four months to catch somebody who were doing something illegal we delivered the system it takes one minute so if you want to talk about how that will affect government Manpower and services there's your best examp yes um in a big way without a doubt uh it's unbelievable what you're talking about the question is whether or not Elon Musk and V ra Swami can actually get this done in you know the period of time that they have well let's let's let's take it you're talking about you know Reinventing you talked about the atomic bomb as the first Manhattan Project and this being the second uh you know how quickly can this happen so let's take this piece by piece so the Biden Administration actually put AI heads for each of the top agencies and I actually met with the head of Hud and we discussed digitalization of all their assets ah so you couldn't have a better person in charge of the Department of government offici than Eli musk cuz he's the Godfather of autonomous cars which is a cognitive car so what I'm talking about is autonomous buildings autonomous Bridges and so on all the infrastructure so you couldn't have a better person in charge and just so you know how long you think it can happen I absolutely think it can happen it's all about implementation yeah and Nvidia will be a beneficiary let's talk about I mean let's talk about when you talk about the AI Revolution what names will benefit so this is really important for people to understand we had a CPU dominated environment for like the last 60 years CPUs single processing yeah Nvidia creates builds gpus in order to drive AI you need GPU so all of the think about the opportunity from a revenue standpoint they've only penetrated around 1% and they have 40% of their revenue coming from the hypers scalers which leaves 495 companies that haven't engaged in AI which leads hundreds of cities and 100 governments worldwide and all of them will be engaging Nvidia you know why because in order to drive G uh AI you need gpus yeah so Nvidia is it it sounds like I mean what about all the others I mean we think of AMD and Taiwan semi and are they do they benefit too or not really so this is important for people to understand because this is a question I get all the time they're like well there's other players out there and they may have cheaper chips it's not just the chip so Nvidia provides the chip the programming language which is Cuda the networking and the most important thing which nobody talks about which is Omniverse which is digital twins so in order to do all that auton autonomous to make it work in a in an you actually actually have embedded Ai and that all you need all of those things also the people who have been trained on AI yeah they've all been trained in Cuda so they created like aage they created a around the castle all right we have to go but just a quick background how did you get into this and have the passion that you do about this well as I mentioned I built the marcket surveillance system were you studying this when you were 12 so the bottom line is I'm a Believer in technology and how it can leap people forward and also I was also senior adviser for neom which was the world's first cognitive City where they were building it digitally so I'm a big believer in a digital first approach and that's why I'm such a strong believer in where n is going to go because the bottom line is AI is only just started right by 2030 once Nvidia penetrates all those different markets it's going to literally go to Mo my my estimate of 800 is actually conservative there's going to be a AI arms race and do you know what that means that means corporations are going to be competing cities are going to compete competing governments and militaries and nvidia's penetration in those other areas is is minimal to none and they will penetrate them all all right Phil panaro founder former CEO Boston Consulting Group at plantin and thank you so much great conversation there pretty amazing I think AI is also going to be determining in the future Phil probably knows what I'm thinking right now all right thank you Phil great to see you and now we bring in Tom white co-host of fast Market because we want to have an example trade of Nvidia which we noted could sell off and then move to new highs we talked about this yesterday and T here it is uh Tom white good morning good morning Nicole yeah the first strategy I looked at it's a little bit uh you know more bullish on this one but you're offsetting some of your cost we've seen a crush in implied volatility level so this will allow you to get into a bullish position a little bit cheaper while offsetting some of the costs you don't need a massive move to the upside to get above the break even so the strategy I looked at was an unbalanced or broken wing butterfly here uh in Nvidia where I'm going to buy uh out in the December monthly uh options that expire on the 20th so 29 days to expiration buy one of the 147 calls sell two of the 155 calls and then buy one of the 157 a half strike calls so in essence in this strategy you're buying a bullish $8 wide call vertical offsetting some of the cost by selling a $25 wide one uh but you can see here uh if you pay a a debit of 250 take break even up to 14950 over the next month um and that's only a couple bucks out of the money to the upside here so you don't like I said you don't need a massive move to the upside now the Apex of profitability at or near that 155 strike but even if you go above 157 A5 uh on this one it's still going to be more than a double on this type of position as far as profitability goes so you're offsetting some of the cost kind of eyeing that 155 strike uh over the next uh month or so but even if it goes higher and gets uh trades above that break even of 14950 uh over the next month is going to be profitability on this type of trade all right so that one more bullish uh we are seeing volatility in this stock it's back in the negative now for example and if someone is feeling more cautious you also have an example trade for that person uh folks listen up for a more cautious example trade Tom yeah a lot of people when you see a stock that's up over you know 190% in a year you're like ah did I miss this trade I'd like to get into it but maybe it has a little bit more weakness in it post earning so I looked at a cash secured put here as an example of a way that you can play this it's a neutral to bullish type strategy uh but you got to be comfortable owning the shares that the stock does Fall and you want to keep your short put on cash gear put went out to that same December monthly cycle so 29 days to expiration and I looked at just selling the 142 strike put out of the money to the downside side you're collecting a credit of around five bucks on that so you collect that credit of five bucks what that do it takes your break even where you start losing money uh down to 137 so you've given yourself that big cushion of about 5% to the downside before uh you get affected on this type of trade now what can you profit on this well the credit that you collected now you've got like I said before you got to be comfortable owning the shares if the stock does fall below 142 but look at the price that you're buying it you're buying it at a 5% % discount to the current share price here so this might be the way to look at it where hey I'm still bullish in this name but hey if it doesn't move I'm okay too but if it goes higher I just keep that credit that I collected just be M uh mindful that you've got to buy the shares if you're still short that put at expiration and the stock is down below 142 but uh this might be the way to play it uh if you're neutral to bullish on this name with the expectations it'll go higher but you're comfortable owning the shares too if it does fall all right Tom white thank you for both of those example trades today everybody's talking about Nvidia today so I'm glad we had the opportunity to share those with folks Tom white thank you
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