Market Has Been Complacent About The West Asia Conflict: Ed Yardeni | CNBC TV18

요약 보기

중동 전쟁이 짧게 끝난다는 시장의 낙관은 과도하다는 주장. 이란의 장기 저항과 호르무즈 해협 교란으로 IEA 비축유 방출(400M배럴)로는 하루 2천만배럴 공급 차질을 감당하기 어렵다고 봄. 스태그플레이션 위험과 사모신용 우려를 언급하며, 현금 확보·분산(금 6,000달러 연말, 2029년 1만달러 전망)·비료/에너지주 보유, 항공주 숏이 유효하다고 제시.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Finish. Ed Yardini, president of Yardini Research, is now joining in. Ed, almost completing 2 weeks now, in a way, do you get the sense that the market is still pricing in a geopolitical risk premium rather than a full supply shock? Is that or is there in some way some complacency that's being set into the market considering that the conflict continues to drag on?

02. Yeah, I think you're right. I think the market has been rather complacent about this war. I think the short war narrative is probably the the majority view. The consensus view, 3 days after the war started, I started I started out thinking it'll be a short war, but 3 days later I concluded, you know what?

03. Fog of war, you never know about these things. And I'm not sure that Iran is going to be that easy to defeat. I mean, they could get pounded, but if they refuse to come to the table if they refuse to give Trump unconditional closure on on this issue, then they'll keep fighting. Iran is a terrorist state.

04. I mean, they're professional terrorists. That is their IRGC component of the army is professional terrorists. And they know how to keep the chaos going. That's That's their strategy to create as much chaos as possible. So, I think we saw today with the IEA release suggested that they're going to release 400 million barrels per day.

05. Well, we're short 20 million barrels per day because of the effect of for shutting off of the straight. So, the the markets have to realize that it's only 20 days of of offset. And I think that price price of oil is up today because there's a clear understanding that maybe this is not going to be that easy.

06. You know, Ed Money, it almost looks like uh And And this is the perception uh not the perception but that Axios uh comment from President Trump's interview, right? That uh US wants out. And uh actually uh it is it is Iran which is now Maybe it's posturing, who knows, right? I mean, obviously they're no match for air superiority and uh the military uh might.

07. Uh but it's also war is always also a perception game here. Uh but of course at the on the other hand we have Israel's defense minister as I put out earlier who said, "Well, this can go on and there's no end in sight. We have to we achieve our objective." So, what's the What's the way out of this uh Ed?

08. How do you How do you end this? I mean, we'll And I think there was I think what uh two 24 hours back there was another report where it said US is asking Israel not to hit oil infrastructure, etc. So, can you Is it going to come to that? US asking Israel to stop? And And then Iran backs off? Is that the sequence we should watch out for?

09. Well, I mean, it's uh conceivable that uh President Trump will declare victory and uh pull back our forces. Uh You can make a litany uh a list of everything that's been destroyed in Iran. Uh but if the Iranians uh uh don't stop fighting and if the Israelis also continue to fight, uh the war continues and the impact on uh on shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be very severe.

10. So, uh it's uh it may may turn out to be that uh this whole thing opened up a can of worms. I mean, clearly the objective was to uh defang Iran to uh once again go after their nuclear facilities and now their missile facilities, but the drones are just uh very difficult to get at. Um They have Who knows how many?

11. I mean, they've been thinking about this for a for a while and drones are a great uh weapon for creating chaos uh in the in the Middle East in the Strait of Hormuz. Um and um This can This can go on for a while. So, I think the markets have in fact been a little bit too confident about the short war scenario.

12. So, what does all of this mean eventually for one's investment thesis? How should one protect capital at a time when, you know, there is chaos all around? Well, uh, certainly, uh, you know, raising some cash, especially in profitable, portions of the portfolio makes sense, as well as in losers that you can offset with those profits.

13. I think you have to be cautious here. I I think that there is a buy-in-the-dip mentality. I've long pointed out that geopolitical crises create great buying opportunities, uh, but uh, it depends on how long the geopolitical crisis lasts. And this is a quite a unique one. This is one that uh, the geopolitical crisis is impacting in the entire world, uh, with the potential to create a stagflationary world scenario with higher oil prices pushing up inflation, uh, and at the same time those, uh, higher prices depressing consumer spending and capital spending around the world.

14. Uh, here in the United States, we also have had this concern about the private, uh, credit markets. And I haven't been particularly concerned, but now I am more concerned because if the economy turns out to be, uh, weaker, less resilient to this kind of shock, uh, that could start to play out in the credit markets.

15. Uh, I I you know, there there are ways to to to play the war. I mean, it's a not a a good word to use in this context was wars are are are horrible, uh, but, uh, in the United States, fertil- fertilizer stocks have done extremely well. Energy stocks have done extremely well. Shorting airlines has has worked.

16. Um, so, there there there are ways to, uh, uh, have a a diversifying impact on your portfolio. Gold hasn't worked and I still think it's going to go to 6,000 by the end of the year and 10,000 by the end of 2029. So, I think gold will work as a diversifier where you know, there's got to be a lot of uncertainty that you have to incorporate in managing your money.

17. It could be a short war and I hope it is, but increasingly I think we have to recognize that it could be a long war with portfolio implications of being more diversified for a long war and also maybe having more cash. Now, another point is correct. I mean, so much depends on capital markets staying strong, right?

18. Uh Sure. Yeah, and that private credit point ties in there. Even the AI trade because all these companies got to raise money at some point through the course of the year. That needs a healthy capital market. If that starts to look a little weaker, that trade starts to So, it's all interrelated as you said, Ed, and needs a close watching.

19. Thank you very much for joining us. Really appreciate it and thank you for for being here with that perspective.