저자: TomNash · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 일론 머스크의 트위터 인수 이슈와 주식 매도 소식으로 하락해 52주 저점 부근에 있다. 하락 원인에는 트위터 딜, 머스크 정치 발언, 거시경기 악화가 섞여 있으며, 발표자는 저점 매도는 위험하다고 보고 개인 상황에 따라 판단하라고 말한다. 머스크의 핵심인물 리스크도 기관 투자 유입을 막는 요인으로 꼽았다.
다듬은 글
hey this is Tom Nash and let's talk about whether this is the right time to sell Tesla there's definitely media circus around Twitter Elon Musk and the share price of Tesla is suffering so is this the right time to reduce your position let's talk about it now yesterday we found out that Elon Musk sold 20 million shares of Tesla at about 4 billion dollars now he didn't say why he sold it but we can safely assume this was done partially to finance is 44 billion acquisition of Twitter and for the past five days the company's Shares are down 15 that's not something that we can actually just ignore because For the first time in a long time given yesterday's dip Tesla shares have an accumulated value a total market cap of just under 600 billion dollars that hasn't happened in a long time so something is definitely up the question is whether this is temporary and you ride out the storm or is it time to get out so let's start with adding some clarity to this whole story this morning Weber Securities analyst and aware well-known Tesla ball their knives said that Elon is losing credibility with certain investors due to his multiple proclamations of being done selling Tesla shares only to sell more shares I mean he's right he actually said that Elon is the most important part of the whole Tesla Story by a huge margin and every move he makes has a major impact on the share price of Tesla and that he absolutely needs to stop the Twitter circus show as he defined it as soon as possible now I think we can all agree whether we agree with then eyes or not that the Twitter deal has not been good to Tesla the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk started way back when in April 14th and in that time Tesla shares have dropped 27 which means hundreds of billions of dollars of market cap lost because of this Twitter deal well hold up a second Tom it wasn't just the Twitter deal the macroeconomic conditions worsened during that time I agree Tesla's dip is no different than Microsoft Amazon and Google in that sense as well as some other great tech companies but in test a specific case a significant negative Catalyst for this drop was also the Twitter deal if not the main one now ilan's attention money his Tesla shares and most recently actual Tesla employees are now working on Twitter related projects all that have made a lot of investors feel uneasy with what's going on right now with Tesla share price reflects that you can't lie so the question is very simple is all of this currently is too much for Tesla should you consider reducing your Tesla position well one thing to remember is that the current share price is pretty much at its 52-week low and although sometimes it does make sense to sell at that low point it has to be something huge it almost has to be like a thesis breaking thesis changing story to justify that normally even if you are looking for an exit strategy selling right on the 52-week lows is a very dangerous strategy especially with a fundamentally great company like Tesla so be careful now the other thing to remember here is that your own personal situation actually matters because if you are done big on Tesla if you lost a lot of money on Tesla because you bought it at the peak it's a very different situation to a guy who bought early and is now up 150 on the stock the portfolio management strategy here is not a one size fit all you know that guys you know talk to professional I'm not a professional financial advisor this is not Financial advice talk to somebody who can analyze your portfolio always remember my grandpa always told me this and no one ever went broke taking a profit especially given the horrible macroeconomic conditions we're about to see in 2023 now that's one point worth keeping in mind as we go forward with our analysis now let's talk about some negative and positive Catalyst for this stock so you can make a decision for yourself now look one negative Catalyst here and the potential reason for you to consider selling right now could be for example elon's public statement recently right he's been very vocal very active talking about politics he's not being politically correct as he always is right he's never been politically correct let's be honest but he's more unpolitically correct than ever right whether you like him or not his public statements as of late clearly are not having a good impact on the share price of Tesla and knowing Elon he's not likely to stop it because it hurts his stock that's not him and for better Wars if you're buying into a Tesla stock you have to accept Elon as the cost of doing business that's Elon for better for worse on the other hand we we have seen Tesla execute and perform quarter after quarter of the quarter after quarter beating expectation every single time as long as the company keeps delivering results investors will tolerate elon's Antics trust me you know they have done so in the past they will keep doing it as long as Tesla performs however if Tesla screws up the price for that screw up due to elon's behavior is going to be much more severe so the question here should be do you think Tesla outperforms long enough well enough consistently enough going forward to override ilan's let's say unorthodox Behavior another negative Catalyst here to consider is macroeconomics the economy is headed into some bad times it seems and Tesla is not going to be 100 immune from that forget about that that ain't happening now this point is more of a kind of Market sentiment not so much a Tesla specific or even specific issue but we cannot ignore it nonetheless if you think the market is headed into the toilet holding loan positions in big tech companies might not be the smartest idea so you have to model your own forward-looking Market Outlook in order to make a decision about any long positions right now Tesla included now one other thing to consider here with everything we just spoke about is key man risk for Tesla that's Elon Musk I've discussed this in depth with Gary black the interview is on my channel go check it out the latest series of events I think highlights for a lot of institutional investors Tesla's kind of over Reliance on Elon Musk as a single entity that's all be all right Elon will be done with Twitter Antics soon he'll be bored with it or he'll figure it out but look at how his absence at least mentally or emotionally has affected the share price so far God forbid the villain word to hit by a piano dropping from the 57th floor walking down the street right does Tesla actually have the management in place to keep going that's a huge question and it does keep a lot of institutional investors away from the stock keeping the share price not as high as it should be so with the whole Twitter story it seems to be more highlighted so knowing this if you invest in Tesla you have to accept the fact that institutional investors are not going to be pouring in into the stock anytime soon so where do I stand on this personally and again this is just my opinion might be [ __ ] it might be wrong might be the remnants of amendment you know the drill so I'll say one thing sure if Elon Musk simply would shut the [ __ ] up Tesla stock would be in a much better position than it is right now sure but if Grandma had Wheels she would be a bicycle I mean both are very unlikely to happen to me personally I don't mind him voicing his political opinions using controversial humor making fun of politicians corporate uptight people I don't care in fact nothing he said in the past six months actually is shocking it's just humor and just Elon being illin it's kind of just not exactly by The Playbook of the corporate world but it is what it is to me it's just harmless humor to me he's the world's best multitasker he's already managed Tesla SpaceX his boring company 57 Ex-Wives 47 kids whatever project he's doing I mean he's been probably the world's greatest multitasker we've ever seen so to think that he cannot handle Twitter on top of it all I don't know I wouldn't bet against him so fast but it's a personal decision you decide for yourself what I am interested is starting the discussion right here and keeping it going right below so comment below whether you're staying in the stock whether you're selling whether you're buying more and your rationale explain to me why so we can debate in the comments below and actually develop a discussion
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