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Well, whether we like it or not, Dad, oil is one of the most important, if not the most important, commodity in everyone's economy. The use of oil, and every person uses oil in one way or another. Dad, you can make a lot more money if you choose stocks correctly, and gold and silver, even better than gold and silver.
Right. We've seen, Jim, the price of oil, you know, skyrocket. You said it was potentially dangerous. This is always potentially dangerous. Always. I've been investing for several decades now, and I'll tell you what I've learned is that no matter what we think, there's something else going on that we don't know about yet.
And that is always potentially dangerous. Fortunately, I survived, and you survived. I hope we all survive. The United States is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. No country has ever been so deeply in debt. And it gets better, it gets worse. She gets more debt every day, every week .
The debt is growing more and more. And no one in Washington seems to understand or care about this . But I've read enough history to know that someday someone will be interested in it . 100 years ago it would have been the British. And then the British went bankrupt and had their own problems. Hmm, I know that history shows that every nation, every company , every family, every person, everyone who chooses this path ends up in trouble.
I don't like saying this. I am American. But Glenn, I'll tell you, now is a good time to be an old American. Because I won't have to pay for all these problems someday. My children, unfortunately, now is not a good time to be a young American. Because young Americans will face some big challenges in the future.
I mean, you just put it very well. This will end badly. It has always been that way. And if you go to Washington, they'll say, "Don't worry . Everything will be fine." But they always said that . Politicians throughout history have always said this. And, unfortunately, the market is smarter than politicians.
The market is smarter than all of us. And the market will go its own way. No, Vlad, this will end very, very badly. Like I said, now is a good time to be an old American. Now is not a good time to be a young American. I'm talking about the bigger picture than you are. No, we can definitely have a lot of bull markets, and we've had historical showings.
I mean, the British had some great bull markets when they were on the rise. And America has had some great bull markets over the last few years, several decades. And now we have a good one. No, no, no, you can have big bull markets even when you are in a downturn. And this is happening to America. All they need to do, Vlad, is print a lot of money.
Borrow money, print money. I mean, this has been going on for centuries. They know what to do. They know how to make everyone happy. And they know how to make themselves happy. Now, you and I will someday or our children will someday worry. But in the meantime, no, they can keep doing this. I don't know how long.
I know it will end someday. I don't know if it will end next month, or next year, or next decade. But I know for sure that it will end someday. But in the meantime, we can have a great time. Rogers doesn't embellish who bears the costs of unmanageable debt. Older investors, he says, will likely avoid the worst consequences simply through good timing.
Younger generations are not so lucky. They will inherit any bill that comes due. However, he is careful not to call for panic. Countries in decline can still create spectacular bull markets along the way , as Britain did in the early 20th century, even as its empire waned. Politicians will continue to insist that everything is fine, because that's what politicians have always said.
Rogers' point is not that collapse is inevitable. The thing is , confidence in fundamentals can diverge for a long time before this happens. Well, that raises another question, Jim. So how do we navigate these markets with all the risks you mentioned? But we also have inflation on the other side. So it's very dangerous and risky to stay with cash and try to prepare for a crash, a collapse, or something else.
So, how do you know what advice you would give people on how to navigate this situation? Well, I think what they need to do is watch your show. You can tell everyone what to do. I'll tell you what I'm doing now, but listen, I make a lot of mistakes, Vlad. But at this point, I have sold almost all of my stocks worldwide.
Now is a rare time. Almost every market in the world is reaching new highs. Almost every market is reaching new highs. This did n't happen often, Vlad. When this happened or has happened in the past, it often led to problems. So I sold almost all my stocks around the world. I still own Uzbekistan. I still speak Chinese.
But mostly I sold because everyone is having a great time. And this worries me. I hope that by the time I'm 40 I'll be as smart as I am now. Uh , I hope I look at the world and remember that earlier in my career there were times when I was skeptical . There were times when I was very optimistic. Uh, I tried to keep up with the times, and sometimes I got it right.
But I hoped that whether I was 14 or 44 or now, I would look and say there was a lot of optimism around. Too much optimism. I should ask a question. And if it were 1926, not 2026, and we were in London, Britain would have gigantic debts. But the market did very well for a few more years before it started to collapse.
So, I mean, Britain was the most important economy in the world at the time. She had a huge debt. She was declining. But that didn't mean they didn't have very, very, very big bull markets, and that some people didn't make great fortunes in the London markets. And this is happening in the USA right now.
And I'm glad. I hope this happens after a long time. I hope this will happen in many years to come. You know, but I don't want to experience the terrible bombing in America. I want everything to be great for the rest of my life. That's what Rogers actually does. He sold almost all of his global stocks, leaving only positions in China and Uzbekistan.
His reasoning is simple but impressive. Almost every major stock market in the world reached all-time highs at the same time. According to him , this pattern historically preceded the problems. This is not a prediction of immediate collapse. This is a signal to start asking more difficult questions.
Rogers openly admits that he is bad at timing the market and has made predictions too early in the past. But when optimism becomes universal and the same across all markets, he sees it as a reason for caution, not confidence. America is the largest debtor country in the history of the world. We have had the longest bull market in American history since 2008.
You know, never in American history have we had such a long period of good markets. Now Washington will say: “Don't worry. This will last forever." Maybe it is, but it never was. So maybe people should look out the window and ask a few questions. America has never been this good for so long. And America has never been the largest debtor country in history.
Most of Europe also has gigantic debts. I mean, nobody , percentage- wise, has as much bad debt as the US, but Europe has very bad debt. You know, wherever you go. I mean, even Germany has a lot of debt right now . You know, the Germans theoretically had a prudent, well- managed economy. But even Germany has a lot of debt now.
It's hard to find, I mean, it's hard to find a country that doesn't have a lot of debt right now. Well, I have gold and silver. I have had it for a long time. I hope that if they go down and people are miserable and desperate , and as for gold and silver, I will buy more. I have never sold any of my gold and silver.
I hope that one day my children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren will own my gold and silver. Everyone should have some gold and silver under their bed. This has been true for centuries. Remember Jesus Christ? Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver. I mean, even in his time, even at that time, silver was extremely important and extremely valuable.
It still is, and gold and silver will probably always be valuable in the world. I'm not very good at navigating the market. Maybe I'm the worst in the world. Hmm, my approach to gold and silver is this: when they are depressed and desperate, I try to buy more. I do n't have a fleet. I have never sold my gold and silver.
I hope to have much more gold and silver someday. Gold and silver have been a good investment and protected people for hundreds of years. Rogers has owned gold and silver for decades and says he has never sold an ounce of either . His approach is controversial by nature. When precious metals lose popularity and sentiment turns to desperation, that's when he buys more.
He views gold and silver not as speculative transactions but as wealth that has retained value over the centuries, pointing to their importance even in ancient history. He doesn't own shares in mining companies at the moment, admitting that it comes down to a lack of research. Although he notes that well- chosen mining companies can significantly outperform the metals themselves due to their operating leverage.
Probably not. I don't currently own any mining stocks , partly because I'm lazy, but if someone can do the research , do their homework, mining stocks are much better than owning gold and silver because you can make much, much more money if you find a good mining company. They have a lot more leverage, and you make amazing amounts of money if you can identify the right mining company stocks, the right mining company, whether it's gold or silver.
I don't own any now, but I've certainly owned them many times in my life, in the past, and I think I will again someday, when I'm not so lazy. But you can make a lot more money if you pick the right stocks than gold and silver, even better than gold and silver. Well, whether we like it or not, oil is one of the most important, if not the most important, commodity.
And every economy uses oil, and every person uses oil in one way or another. So, oil is extremely important. And the price of oil...So the price of oil is probably the most important price for anything in the world. Currently, the price of oil has fallen from its historic high. So, if people are willing to do the work, they should consider buying oil and gas right now.
I am lazy. I do n't have them. I'm just telling you that it's only because I'm lazy. But oil and gas are extremely important to all of us. And of course, when they're depressed, people should be interested. But all the prices are already, I mean, how much are they? 50% below the all-time high or something?
Don't quote me, but they have fallen significantly . Um, yes, but of course it could be worse. It could always be worse. It doesn't matter , Vlad, what the asset is. It could always be worse. I promise. I've been through enough markets to know this. But oil and gas have fallen from an all-time high, and people need to know about oil and gas, and they definitely need to know that the price is now significantly down from an all-time high.
And maybe someone should do some research. You mentioned, Jim, that, like me, you probably don't. Uh, you mentioned that you own stocks in China and Uzbekistan. Uh, so this will be your only investment, or maybe you'll also invest in other commodities or something else? Well, now I'm repeating myself because I'm lazy, maybe I have a lot of cash .
But right now, almost every stock market in the world is reaching all-time highs. This has rarely happened in world history. And throughout history, if everyone is reaching historic highs, that's the time to ask questions. That's why I'm worried. Every stock market in the world is reaching historic highs.
So I don't own many stock markets at the moment. I have a lot of cash because I'm worried. Right now, but everything could last a long time, it could go well. It has always been that way. But usually, when everything is at an all- time high, things end up going badly. I suspect that if we were talking now, a year from now, things would be worse.
At least in some countries. Turning to energy, Rogers calls oil perhaps the most important commodity on Earth, as every economy and almost every person depends on it. With crude oil trading well below its historical peak, he suggests this is exactly the kind of situation worth investigating, although he has personally taken no action, citing his own reluctance to do the work.
His broader message: depressed assets deserve attention precisely because they are disliked. Whether it's oil, gold, or stocks, Rogers repeatedly returns to the same principle: curiosity and skepticism, not confidence, are what separate disciplined investors from everyone else. Well, I'm glad I make a lot of mistakes, and I've certainly made a lot of mistakes in my investing career, in my life.
I have always made many mistakes. But I think the main answer for you is curiosity and skepticism. If people are curious about the world, they can become good investors because they will ask a lot of questions. And if they are skeptical about the world, they will definitely ask a lot of questions when people give them answers.
And skepticism will teach you not to just accept that everything is always great. Persistence is extremely important. I try to teach my children perseverance. I hope everyone can learn perseverance. This is an extremely good trait. If you never give up, you will probably eventually achieve quite a bit of success.
This will be difficult. That's why people are persistent. They know that in the end they can make things right. That's right, this is a very important point. Jim, we've covered a lot . Is there anything else you would like to mention that you think is important that we haven't covered ? Yes. We could spend a few days on this.
There are a lot of things that are important, you know, a lot of things. Uh, timing and timing are extremely important for the market. I'm not very good at this . But people need to learn or realize that markets will sometimes be desperate, sometimes they will be very enthusiastic. And they need to learn that markets don't sit idly by , acting rationally.
Markets are usually irrational. Therefore, they need to understand that the timing of entering the market may not be the same as usual, this is very important. And this needs to be understood. Uh , of course, I had to learn that in my time. We all did it. No matter how smart we are and how clever we are.
We must learn to recognize time. We must learn to recognize emotions. This is not an easy way to make money. I want to repeat that. This is not an easy way to make money. Rogers ends on a humble note. Even after a lifetime spent investing, he considers himself a poor market timer, and insists that no one should think otherwise of themselves.
Markets, he argues, are rarely rational. They oscillate between euphoria and despair, regardless of underlying fundamentals, and the understanding that emotional rhythm is just as important as understanding the numbers. His final piece of advice is not about stock selection or target prices. It's a way of thinking.
Stay skeptical, keep asking questions, and above all, be persistent. Because, in his opinion, it was never an easy way to get rich, no matter how experienced you became.
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