저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
현재 금·은 투자자들이 모두 낙관적이라 역발상 매수 시점은 아니며 조정 가능성을 열어둠. 금·은은 장기 보유 자산이라 본인은 추가 매수하지 않음. 원자재 중 석유는 고점 대비 크게 낮아 매수 쪽을 선호하고 베네수엘라 공급 이슈가 가격 압력이 될 수 있음. 일본 증시는 35년 침체 후 급등했으나 인구·부채 문제로 주의 필요, 본인은 일본주식을 매도함. 미국 달러는 안전자산 지위로 보유 중이나 장기적으로 대체될 수 있고, 인플레이션 재발로 금리 상승을 예상해 채권은 보유하지 않음. 모든 자산이 신고가인 시기는 질문과 경계가 필요하다는 주장.
다듬은 글
The market usually tells me when things are down and people are in despair and say, "Ah, I'm never going to buy silver again." That's when I get interested. That is not the case right now. People are not disgusted with silver or gold. I mean, I've been investing in this stuff for many decades. So, I've seen this before.
[clears throat] Yes, there have always been and I hope always will be more periods of happiness and euphoria and precious metals. And then there will be times when things will go down and people say, "I never want to buy gold again." That's when I hope I'm smart enough to be interested. But right now, everybody's happy.
Everybody wants gold and silver. So, I'm not buying now. I own gold and silver. Everybody should have some gold and silver. I hope my gold and ch silver is for my children someday. I don't pay too much attention. Well, when the price goes down, I hope I'm smart enough to buy more, but I I look at it as as insurance.
I look at it as part of my life. [clears throat] Yes, one can make a huge amount of money if you're good at trading gold and silver, but I consider them part of my life as long-term investments. I'm glad always whatever it is for hundreds of years when something runs straight up for a while, it often it usually has a correction.
So, I mean, I'm not very good at trading, but certainly I would expect, it would not surprise me if we see a correction in gold and silver before this is over. It always has. The market usually tells me when things are down and people are in despair and say, "Ah, I'm never going to buy silver again." That's when I get interested.
That is not the case right now. People are not disgusted with silver or gold. I mean, I've been investing in this stuff for many decades. So, I've seen this before. [clears throat] Yes, there have always been and I hope always will be more periods of happiness and euphoria and precious metals. And then there will be times when things will go down and people say, "I never want to buy gold again." That's when I hope I'm smart enough to be interested.
But right now, everybody's happy. Everybody wants gold and silver, so I'm not buying now. Profitable trading in metals is possible, but requires research and discipline. Mining companies often outperform the physical metals themselves, offering leveraged returns. Yet, success depends on knowledge, patience, and timing.
Market psychology plays a critical role. Despair signals opportunity while euphoria warns caution. Understanding cycles is essential. Mass optimism may indicate a peak while widespread fear signals a potential entry point. The most successful investors focus on areas they understand deeply. Avoiding speculation outside their expertise.
Strategic trading isn't about luck. It's about preparation, pattern recognition, and choosing investments aligned with both market realities and personal knowledge. Everybody has to do their own way and do what they know best. Yes, if you're smart, you might sell your silver and put a little money in a base metals.
Well, I'm not I'm too lazy to do that, but I know that that might be an extremely attractive trade for people who are interested and knowledgeable about trading. I'm too lazy. That requires work. But if you're good at it, you'll make a fortune. If you're willing to do your research, you'll make much more money in a good mining company than you will in the metal itself because the mining company will go up multiple times.
If silver makes new highs, mining stocks will make much better returns. So, if you're able and willing to do your research, investing in the companies was always better if you're willing to do the research and know what you're doing. [clears throat] Oil is certainly down a lot from its all-time high.
Uh so, so yes, I had rather buy than sell oil right now. Uh again, oil is down a lot from its all-time high and it will continue. You know, known reserves of oil continue to decline. So, if you're knowledgeable, you you should think about and willing to do your research, you should think about investing in oil companies or oil it oil itself.
I am an American, an American voter and taxpayer, but I certainly don't suggest that America should get involved in strife with Venezuela or anybody else. But in V Venezuela is an extremely important company in the oil business. And if that's going to continue, it will cause pressure on the price of oil.
And maybe if you know what you're doing and you can judge the politics, you should buy more oil perhaps if you know what you're doing. Energy markets present unique opportunities for the informed investor. Oil, for instance, remains far below historical highs even as global reserves decline. Political and geopolitical dynamics such as tensions in Venezuela influence supply and pricing.
Careful research into these factors can yield substantial returns for those willing to study market fundamentals. Diversifying into energy stocks may amplify gains, mirroring the strategy used with mining companies. Macro events like inflation, population shifts, and industrial demand will continue shaping oil and energy markets.
Savvy investors observe the world closely, balancing risk with reward and making decisions grounded in real world trends rather than hype. The Japanese stock market has been skyrocketing recently. It was down for 35 years or something. That's not a typo. 35 years, but now it's booming again. Uh I've sold my Japanese stocks too soon, but I did sell out.
But you know, Japan has huge problems. The population has been declining for 15 years or something. The debt has been skyrocketing. But that doesn't mean the stock market can't have big booms. It's happening. Uh if Japanese shares go down, I hope I'm smart enough to buy more. Japan's not going to disappear, but it does have demographic problems.
It does have debt problems. So, be careful. Of course, as yields go higher and higher, and they it looks like they probably will worldwide because inflation is coming back, that means interest rates will go higher over the next few years. So, be concerned. Japan's stock market has been in the last few months.
So, be concerned. But Japan's not going to disappear even with problems. America is not going to disappear even with our problems. Just be concerned, be aware and be concerned. Let me just correct slightly. I am not bearish. I just have sold. Yes. But I am not selling short in the US. Not yet. Not selling short anywhere.
Um but yes, I am certainly not brushing into buy the US or many other places because everybody everybody to repeat is making new highs. That historically has been a time to ask questions and be worried. Japan's stock market offers a cautionary tale. Decades of stagnation followed by sudden booms. Demographics, debt, and interest rate trends impact long-term performance.
Yet growth remains possible. Even in troubled economies, opportunities exist for those who patiently observe cycles and buy during dips. Globally, investors must remain aware of macroeconomic forces, rising interest rates, inflation pressures, and central bank policies. Markets can soar despite underlying problems, but history reminds us peaks invite caution.
Understanding trends rather than reacting emotionally ensures better decision-making. Knowledge, patience, and disciplined observation remain the most reliable tools for navigating volatile markets worldwide. that I mean they always have these guys in the American central bank and all central banks basically they're politicians they don't really know what they're doing but they are government bureaucrats they want to keep their job and they know to keep their job they have to keep prosperity they hope and that as far as they're concerned that means always make sure that everybody has enough money so that means make sure you continue to print money when necessary.
But that's always been the case everywhere. It doesn't matter whether you're in your 30s or in your 50s or whatever. You should only invest in what you yourself know a lot about. Do not listen to me or the television or other people. You if you're going to be successful, you have to stay with what you know.
If you're going to be successful, you do not listen to other people. And I would tell 35year-old Jim Rogers, be careful. Don't listen to other people. Don't jump in and out of hot things. Just stay with what you know. Be patient. Be calm and wait. There's always something that you can invest in if you're wait if you're patient and knowledgeable.
I didn't say it was easy. I just said that's the only way. Most people it's easier for them to learn about things they like than other than strange things. So certainly start with what you like. Start with what you know and build from that. And even if you only wait and invest in things you know a lot about that's fine.
Many people got very rich investing only in what they know. But the main thing is do not invest in things you don't know about. The US dollar is currently perceived as a safe haven despite America's unprecedented debt. Investors hold dollars because others do, creating a self-reinforcing demand. Yet history shows safe havens change over time.
What was sterling a century ago is now the dollar. Bonds face similar risks. Anticipated inflation and rising interest rates diminish their appeal. Political decisions may temporarily influence rates, but long-term trends dominate. For informed investors, understanding the dynamics behind currency, debt, and inflation is critical.
The lesson is simple. Remain aware, diversify strategically, and avoid complacency even when the environment appears stable and prosperous. I own a lot of US dollars. Even though the US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, I own them because everybody thinks the US dollar is a safe haven.
Most people in the world think it's a good place to be have your money. So I do I know it's not a safe haven. I know that we're the largest debtor nation in history and I am looking for an alternative. But I own it right now because I do know that if there are problems, most people in the world will go to the US dollar at least for the foreseeable future.
That will change. 100 years ago, that was the British pound, the pound sterling 100 years ago. That changed. This will change, too. I own US dollars. I do own gold and silver. I do not own US dollars because it seems to me that inflation is on the way back. That will mean a higher interest rate. So, as far as I'm concerned, bonds right now are not a great place to be because I can see higher inflation coming and therefore higher interest rates.
No, politicians always want lower interest rates. [clears throat] Mr. Trump is a real estate person. Of course, he wants a lower interest rate. He may get it. He may force it. Uh, but just be careful because, as I said, I don't own bonds right now because I know that inflation is coming back and will come back.
So, I don't want to own bonds even if Mr. Trump gets interest rates down for a while. Investing successfully requires focus on what you understand. Avoid chasing trends or advice from others. Historical patterns show that when everyone is making money, caution is warranted. Central banks and governments influence markets, but cycles of growth and correction repeat over centuries.
Money flows inevitably into investment markets, creating both opportunity and risk. By combining patience, research, and careful observation, investors can navigate booms and busts alike. Understanding human behavior, economic history, and market mechanics ensures long-term success. The ultimate goal isn't short-term wealth.
It's resilience, informed decisions, and a steady accumulation of assets that endure through generations. I mean, Beckistan, they're not many. I mean, V everything is making all-time highs. You look out the window, you'll see that things are great everywhere. That historically anyway has been a time to ask questions.
Right. It's wonderful when everybody's happy and making money, but it's also a time to ask questions. It's find it's hard to find something that's cheap. Everybody's happy. That historically, if you look back at previous times when everything is going up, it has eventually led to problems. Just do your research.
You'll see that this is great while it's happening, but it never lasts forever. Never has lasted forever. If if the central banks make a lot of money available and print a lot of money, it's got to go somewhere. And historically, it goes into the economy and eventually into the investment markets. I mean, this is pretty simple stuff.
The money's got to go somewhere and if there's a huge amount of it, it will often go into the investment markets and that will happen again. And that's what's happening now. I'm glad this has happened for hundreds of years. I didn't invent this. It's the way it always worked. This has happened many times before.
If you read Dickens or anybody, you will see that there have always been people who were extremely poor and people who are extremely rich. We don't like it. We all want to change that. But it has always happened. I hope I'm wrong enough to see it happen many, many times. No, of course. I want everybody to be rich, but it's never happened.
Uh in the few times in history when everybody is rich and making money, it's usually been a time to worry.
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