저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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7월 CPI는 하락 추세이나 주거비(shelter) 4% 상승이 인플레이션 대부분을 차지. 주택시장은 재고 증가·거래량 감소에도 가격이 높게 유지되고, 모기지 금리 하락 없이는 부담이 큼. 고용 지표 악화와 신용카드 부채 증가도 리스크로 지목. 9월 중순 시장 약세 가능성을 우려하며 금리 인하 폭은 25bp 정도로 예상. S&P/나스닥은 거래량 대비 급등이 이상하다고 언급하며 불안감 표명.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two stupid guys TR socks I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie and there's something happening in the market that I I don't think enough people are talking about I'm trying not to be too Doom and Gloom here but I don't think we're going to have a soft Landing because I don't think that there is enough people talking about the huge issue in the housing sector right now that's going to affect the stock market so bear with me um this is this stuff's kind of old we're going to just whiz pass this um but this is the CPI report for July everyone's super happy yada yada yada we we're we're down we're probably going to have a rate cut um and then at this August date we're going to lose that you want to talk about that yeah that big 0.5 bar is going to go away I mean the the basic discussion here is about like how you know CPI really has to move in like uh in line closer to that 2% Target because we're about to lose a 0.5% bar and know you know basically if you add up the remaining bars that are on there put this on Clos to that 2% t for the Fed so we'll actually jump a little bit as we get closer here that's idea happy happy day Okay cool so this is all items and all items less food and energy you can see oh downward projection everyone's happy and then this is just more highlights but basically the the point 4% increase in shelter cost was responsible for 90% of all items inflation yay everyone's happy we're doing great pal did his job there's a problem and I I don't the reason why I made this video is because on my Instagram reel and maybe I'm just clicking on it too much but I'm getting a lot of those sleazy real estate guys being like Oh I could sell your house in like three days guys there's you're going to have 20 offers I'm like I don't think that's real yeah there's I'm getting more of those um so this is this is kind of funny because if you looked at this in January this year we're definitely having three three r Cuts right then like I think it was April we're not having any this is a problem guys maybe one yeah and now we're like oh we're definitely going to have a 50 maybe a 75 in September right and it's like ah okay all right but the problem here is this that the the housing market now the stock market it likes stability okay so I'm not saying that it makes sense for the housing market to take a Down turn and therefore the stock market will take a downturn it just they just kind of go hand in hand it just it just happens people don't like when one thing is crashing I don't know I don't know I don't make the rules um but this guy's saying look prices are so high even a rate cut is not going to fix this problem right we we would need the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to drop below 5.25% I actually think it's needs to be way less than that because home prices have really price themselves out now I'm gonna move my face here so these are existing home sales per month messing with a little bit on the scale here though right yeah went 6,000 to 4,000 it looks like it fell off almost nothing like that that's uh do that it's still a 33% decrease that's a hefty decrease all right now I got more charts man I'm not putting all my eggs in this basket come on all right this is the H of course I put it in the wrong place this is a home price to median house income ratio it's doing great we're very very happy this is the housing bubble Yeah well yeah homes are unaffordable this is just confirming everything that every tick tock 20-year-old is is set for the last like two years all of them you have inventory increasing cool that makes sense right because you had we had a little bit of decrease in sales you're going to have an increase in inventory right yeah well below historic levels though of inventory so we still have a shortage of available homes right still have a shortage um I'm not going to Har on this we've done this like six times when unemployment has this little tick upwards it just goes up it just it's look at the pattern not good yeah okay was that s same rule um s rule sh as ahm rule is um now here's our credit card balance 2019 to 2020 this is record high this is good good stuff stop spending money this is in trillions by the way yeah and and you have that with one of the highest like record uh interest rates on credit cards too something else that's come up yeah is like 25 or something something disgusting yeah God banks are the worst so what am I getting at here so there's this thing called the law of supply and demand all right now I did not create this I'm just kidding um you have inventory increasing sales decreasing price for some reason is still going higher I bought the house in in two years ago I cannot afford it well I mean I can afford it for what I bought it for but if I was to buy it now yeah not even close I don't it doesn't make any sense right you have debt increasing across the entire expanse of of all level of lower middle and and upper class and then you have unemployment increasing all of that is very bad just one of those is bad for the housing sector all four of those are not good the fact that oh also 26% of all houses on Zillow have done one or more rate Cuts in the last 30 days okay not ideal I this is going to be a problem and every single time I look at a real estate page or you know what have you everyone's saying the same thing we're going to have a rate cut mortgage rates going to drop down to where they were like that does not happen with one rate cut that we could be a year two years three years from that we may not hit 3% mortgages again that might that might be a long time I don't think people are appreciating the severity of of of how bad inflation has hit us like yeah I do you think we're going to hit another mortgage for 2.2% in the next year I don't God I hope so not next year uh will that happen sometime in our lifetime I still think so well okay lifetime sure in the next 80 years yes I think when you talk about housing though what you know remember that old Golden Rule about housing that location location location thing um the uh um real kind of question is what are the effects going to be in your local in the country right because like a lot of these are very different um you're in Phoenix Arizona is area right so like their housing market there is very different from where I am in the Northeast we've had true Decades of nimbyism that have limited housing availability which is why we have you know such significantly like high like uh home prices um I think you're going to see very Regional kind of impacts based upon this true and and to speak to your point in Florida I don't know if you saw what's happening with their home insurance issue yeah yeah people are that now there are now condos and houses below 2020 prices and they still can't sell them because home insurance companies are just like no it's going to be like it's going to be 20,000 or you know something disgusting year whatever it was so true it that that does apply however let's just look at it in terms of the market also what I'm trying to get at is I think we're going to have a not fun September um I hate putting a a month on this because then I sound like Harry Dent who's been right twice and wrong 3,000 times September the 15th is the day September 15th no I wouldn't put your money p.m.
um so here's the Spy okay so we had a decent dip everyone was freaking out for a little bit but it never actually hit the 200 we have come up very rapidly on kind of pretty low volume like the the jump from here to here volume wise not making sense it's very very weird and then Q's same thing we actually were below the 200 but just going from this level which is where we were to here look at the amount of volume comparatively you have one triple the amount of days but the amount of stocks that change hands here I don't this isn't making a lot of sense it's too fast though too don't don't forget that you know we're we're in August right now so this is historically a low volume time of year everyone's on vacation a low volume but also low movement not low volume unbelievably High movement those are two different things so obviously I'm not going to harp this I'm I'm trying to get more TLT because of this but I just want to let you guys know this I'm feeling real iffy about this the last time I was feeling iffy I did a short unfortunately my my timing was off but it it did tank it did not do well the the market I think the q's hit like 330 or whatever it was I'm not feeling super awesome I think people are putting a lot of Hope into this rate Cut One Rate cut is not going to fix the problem but also if we cut too early that's going to make the problem way worse so I don't think too early is on the table any more Dylan I I think we've effectively eliminated too early eliminated too early we've eliminated too early we took it out behind the shed and you back do you think we're gonna have a September rut I do uh yes it probably only be 25 basis points though I'm also going 25 we're in the vast minority now for that everyone else is 50 minimum possibly 75 yeah I don't think that's going to happen Powell's still scared I would prefer him to be scared than than rash but yeah anyways not I'm very very nervous about this the housing market the levels do not make sense prices should not be increasing as inventory is increasing at the same time and you have decreased sales you may dis agree with that but there's a lot of supply and demand baby yeah yeah I get what you're saying all right guys let us know what you think C next one
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