저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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마이클 베리의 2024년 2분기 13F 공시를 분석. 그는 포트폴리오를 10개 종목으로 대폭 축소하고 현금 비중을 크게 늘림. 중국 기술주(BABA 24% 추가, BIDU 87.5% 추가, JD 30% 감축)는 저평가로 보며, 신규 편입 SHFT·MOH·HPP 등은 개별 분석에 그침. 진행자들은 베리의 현금 확대를 약세 신호로 해석하나 과거 예측 실패도 언급. 결론적으로 중국 기술주 저평가에는 공감하나 추가 매수 자금은 없다는 입장.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to TU guys TR so I'm Dyan and I'm Vinnie and we got the Michael bur 13f filing came out this week we're going to take a look at some of the new stocks he added because you got some interesting stuff in here we're gonna take a little look at it okay so the real interesting thing I think right off the bat is he trimmed a lot of his positions and by trimmed I mean he eliminated from his portfolio Okay um these are all positions that he hold out of completely in this most recent quarterly filing which is pretty crazy there's quite a few names on there uh he basically trimmed everything down to just 10 Holdings at this point that are disclosed you know that means only things he has to disclose are call or put options and US equities so he could own things that are outside of that or cash or whatever um but you know as far as things we can see he trimmed down a bunch of them of all these okay I see he sold City worst stock ever perfect yeah yeah I know we have our own po personal history with that now these are the stocks that he still owns so they're just 10 total um we have talked a lot about Baba all right see our separate video Dylan and I both own alib Baba shares he did add to that position this most quarter increasing his position 24% um he added some new ones here this is the shift four payments actually I'm only tally aware of them because that whole Jared isaacman he's the guy that paid for that first private like uh space mission to the Jal space station he's the founder of that company I've honestly never heard of them I don't know I don't know what that is yeah that's it's all right we'll talk more about it um Molina Healthcare Buu JD uh HPP was um Hudson properties well mention them real quick real real he actually trimmed that position down uh and then I didn't even actually look at these other ones kind of smaller positions you look at the dollar value uh in his portfolio you know 2.6 million as opposed to his big one Baba it's 11.1 million all right so Chinese Tech this is the trade Dylan and I have talked about a lot um you know in our opinion stupid guy opinion significantly undervalued and it makes sense but bur's been Along on this trade for in and out for you know several times uh he did like add 24% more shares to his baba position Buu he actually significantly increased 87.5 almost doubling his position in Buu it's another one that is very very attractive all of the Chinese Tech has been relatively beaten up and and you know seeing multi-year lows uh JD he did trim that one back actually the most recent quarter down 30% of his position he lopped off that one's that one's weird to me because it seems I mean JD and Bob are are competitors is it seems like it would be smart to okay I mean he's smarter than me so some things you can you can kind of Intuit it or interpret a little bit but the the bur machine does what the bur machine does um I wanted to highlight a couple of these other like new positions so shift four uh new position decent size for his portfolio 7.3 million uh he held it as of here it looks like they have a nice little decent pop right in the beginning of August this year um so you know potentially would be up already on this position if he still holds it we don't know that for a fact because once again 13A filings are 45 delay days delayed from the end of the quarter um but payment processing is what they do uh I think they particularly Target small merchants and restaurants is like their Niche don't quote me on that one that's looking like a a double top here I am short bias though I I don't think the Market's going to do well so I'm looking at everything from a certain perspective yeah yeah yeah I mean I I look briefly at their their finances too I want to say their price of free cash flow was like 20 22 like not bad but nothing like oh my God this is like way undervalued like what the hell's going on here so I'm not really sure what his thought process is in the play or you know he just let it was kind of beating up for a little bit now Molina Healthcare this is a Medicare Medicaid um kind of management company and uh he held it as of the end of June here nice little pop since then um decent size position for him 7.3 you know that that seems to be his kind of like midsize mid to large size kind of position for his portfolio when he gets into that territory uh because you notice he had a couple that were basically at that same dollar value um but uh you know stock that had like a little downward Trend and you knowbe was betting on the reversal um I I can't remember what their financial metrics is look off the top of my head right now uh but you know nothing particularly caught my eye there this is one I thought that was a little bit interesting so for him this is more like a midsize position this is Hudson Pacific Properties it's a Reit and they specialize in sound Studios and and things of that nature so very very small Niche um ex said midsize position for him this is a stock that was trading at $30 per share back in like 2020 and it's down down to $5 per share it's down like 50% year to date so it's one that like might be worth doing more due diligence on it's a pretty small company like $700 million market cap um and you know they show negative earnings but right it's it's not a a good metric we were talking about REITs so that was one that I thought I was like huh this is interesting I might want to spend a little more time reading about them personally but I what are your thoughts so my thoughts are he's loading up on cash a very very large amount so I mean I I just went to whale wisdom like we did so I mean even with the new buys he is very heavy into cash right now unless like you said we we can't see the other things that he could be investing if he's doing direct so there's definitely caveat there but we have Buffett loading up on cash we have bur loading up on cash I don't not trying to be hay Dent here but yeah that doesn't sound good to me so yeah I know I know but he's done that before too so like you know the classic joke about bur is he's predicted what the 20 of the last two recessions so true true he was super wrong in 2021 how that was probably his worst being wrong but yeah now he's got big daddy Buffett with him too in agreement H okay sure all right sure I mean the real important lesson though is that we all agree that Chinese Tech is undervalued okay true everybody take message yeah agreed I would like to buy more but I don't have any more money so yeah fair enough I have everything AA all right guys catch you next one
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