저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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첫째 결론: 시장 참여자들이 금리·부채 문제를 잘못 보고 있으며, 정부 세출보다 세입 축소와 저금리 차환이 더 현실적 해법이라는 주장. 주제1: 금리와 차환 - 금리가 계속 떨어지던 시기에 재융자를 하지 않은 사람은 상식이 부족했다는 비유를 들었다. - 미국은 지금 부채를 100년 이상 만기로 장기 차환해야 한다고 주장했다. - 단기 만기 부채를 장기로 바꾸면 손해가 없다고 봤다. 주제2: 인플레이션과 부채 - 인플레이션은 달러 가치를 떨어뜨려 단기 부채 상환에 도움이 된다고 설명했다. - 인플레이션이 부채 부담을 줄여준다는 점을 실용적 방법으로 제시했다. 주제3: 신용평가사 - S&P, 피치, 무디스는 정보가 없고 평가 문서를 팔 뿐이라고 비판했다. - SVB에 무디스가 파산 직전 등급을 준 사례를 들어 신뢰하지 말라고 했다. 주제4: 부채한도와 수정헌법 14조 - 바이든이 수정헌법 14조를 근거로 행정명령 예산 집행을 할 수 있다고 봤다. - 이는 공화당의 소송과 대법원 판단으로 이어질 것이며, 시장 불확실성과 유동성 위축을 낳아 경제를 더 악화시킬 수 있다고 우려했다. - 유동성은 최근 18개월간 이미 줄어드는 중이라고 언급했다. 주제5: 재정 정책 - 지출 삭감보다 세입 최소화가 현실적이라고 주장했다. - 사회보장과 의료 혜택 삭감은 정치적으로 불가능하다고 봤다. - 정부 지출의 약 절반은 낭비라고 평가했다. 주제6: 시장 전망 - 이 영상에서 삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 금, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등 개별 종목이나 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다. - 금리 방향에 대해서는 금리가 떨어지던 과거를 언급했을 뿐 향후 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
if when rates kept going down you were the people around you didn't have the common sense to refinance that that was negligence in his most recent podcast chamath polyhepedia shares his opinion regarding High inflation rates the stock market the crypto market and the fed the first is I thought DeSantis did a really good job just rolling with the punches okay because I think whether he wins you're not going to look back on this moment as the defining moment of the campaign nor whether he loses will you say that this was where it was it all the beginning of the end instead what this was was a really seminal moment I think in further divorcing ourselves away from the mainstream media and you know that it was that important because Biden tried to troll the whole thing Nick you can show this link this link works and I actually think this is a really terrible idea by the Biden team because never this basically acknowledges how important the moment was and the fact that even the president of the United States was grinding the link and couldn't get in because there was so much interest is really important and I think what it speaks to is the fact that we are now showing credibly that you don't need to listen to four channels to shape your consciousness and you can just go straight to the source and what Zach said is right if you now have a moderated forum that then gets put out to 50 or 60 different Twitter spaces all at the same time Framing and reframing it gives people a chance to come to their own conclusion in a totally unique way so I think it was really really an important moment for citizen journalism and podcasting and audio formats and all of the things that I think we've been a small part of but I think that it's really must have tilted the mainstream media and it tilted The Establishment and you can see that in Biden's tweet yeah I'm going direct yeah so that was the first thing second thing I think DeSantis did a really decent job in rolling with the whole thing and being super cool and just being committed to the process and I think that says a lot about him as well which was again it's a question mark and I've said this before the Big Money guys got close and then took a step back so this could be a very good moment for them to reevaluate because I thought he did a very good job I think that these third-party credit rating agencies are not particularly that accurate and sophisticated they don't know anything that you don't know they're not getting access to Moody's gave svbn a rating the week before it went into receivership well done this is my exact point none of these companies know what they're doing these companies are in the business of putting a letter on a document and then selling access to that document so if you're going to trust these guys to know what they're saying either right or wrong independent of what side you are Outsourcing your decision making to the wrong body so whether it's s p Fitch or Moody's I would tell you to ignore it and come to your own conclusion I think that this budget ceiling thing is happening now every couple of years and it seems like the real thing we should be talking about is whether Biden's going to use the 14th Amendment and just Ram a budget through and I think that that's yeah so under under the 14th Amendment the president of the United States has in their discretion the ability to make sure that the United States can pay their debts and that wasn't necessarily thought of as a way to work around the debt ceiling impasse but because Congress refuses to pass any structural laws that allow the budget to ebb and flow with tax receipts we get in caught in this situation again roughly every handful of years so what Biden could do is he could say the 14th Amendment gives me the right I'm going to pass a budget via executive order from a game theory perspective what that does is it forces Republicans to sue Biden take him to the Supreme Court and say this is unconstitutional the problem with that is that that probably really does tank the economy in the way that it creates enough uncertainty where Capital markets freeze up and liquidity just absolutely goes away and again liquidity has been shrinking for the last 18 months anyways so it'd get even worse so I think the brinksmanship right now between McCarthy and Biden is basically that Veiled Threat if Biden effectively isn't going to get something done I think he's going to test the 14th Amendment now if the 14th Amendment turns out to be a reasonable way in order to pass a budget the good news is not just for Biden but for any future president including Republican presidents will not have to be held hostage by Congress they will in the 11th Hour be able to pass a budget that works the implications of that though is that now you will not get consensus and whatever's happening in that moment you'll see more of so if you have a spending president they'll just continue to spend and if you have an austerity president they'll continue to cut and that'll have implications on either side to win over the American public to win over moderates with an austerity and they balance the budget message or is it just too unpopular to even bring that up I just think that you guys don't psychologically understand how to get what you want I think the best way to get what you want which I would want too which is a healthy economy where there's accountability for spending is to not look at expenses and all of this talk is always about expenses but to look at revenue and limit Revenue more drastically and I think the best way to limit Revenue dramatically at the federal and state level is to just minimize taxation as much as possible and I think that is something that Democrats and Republicans have a hard time fighting nobody wants to raise their hand and say I want new taxes nobody says them right and I think that if you attach that to some sort of spending guidelines like what David says with a sensible foreign policy you just end up spending a lot less you want to fight a foreign war okay great well you know what it's part of the existing budget let's go figure out why we want to do it we want to have more accountability and defense spending okay well look the defense budget is a half of what it used to be because we just have half the revenue I think that if you start to go and talk about austerity and cutting Social Security and health care benefits it's literally a non-starter people close their eyes they plug their ears and you get nowhere now separately I think the step even before you look at taxation so minimizing government revenue is to figure out how to refinance so if you're a homeowner and you got a mortgage in the 80s you were paying 12 14 15 16 if when rates kept going down you were the people around you didn't have the common sense to refinance that that was negligence similarly we're in a position today to refinance our debt wall and push out these maturities past 100 plus years we are the only country that has a viable stable economy that looks like it can still continue to thrive at scale take advantage of that you lose Nothing by giving us the optionality generating some Hundred Year debt refinancing a bunch of this short-term stuff and then second inflation helps us and it helps us because it allows us to inflate the value of these dollars that allows us to pay off our short-term maturities so these are two practical simple things that are uncontroversial that should happen today and then separately I think you need to look at minimizing Revenue and then you can cut expenses but if you flip them around I'm just telling you it's not like I want any of this to happen but I'm telling you nothing will change and you guys will still be crying wolf in five years it'll still be the same it'll just be a different debt to GDP number that gives you anxiety I think the best way to think about government spending is that in every dollar there's probably 15 or 20 cents that actually does some good there's probably 15 to 20 cents that's like on the margins break even and then the rest of it which is half of it is wasted that's probably roughly accurate right you get things like tarp which turned out to be a pretty decent program there were things like the doe loans that you know got things like Tesla into the marketplace right there's things like the IRA today that'll delever ourselves and create a peace dividend because we won't need to fight over resources and oil from other countries but the problem is that that represents a minority of the dollars
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