🚨 URGENT! Peter Schiff's Bold Predictions For The Global Economy | Latest Market Update

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결론: 연준의 금리인상은 인플레이션을 잡지 못했고, 재정적자와 이자비용 급증으로 결국 경제 위기 또는 연준의 QE 재개가 불가피하다. 인플레이션 평가: 헤드라인 CPI가 9%에서 3%로 내려간 것은 원자재·유가 급락과 달러 강세 때문이며 연준 공로가 아니다. 유가는 배럴당 81달러 이상으로 반등 중이고 달러는 고점을 찍고 하락 중이라 헤드라인 CPI는 3% 초반에서 바닥을 찍고 다시 오를 것으로 본다. 근원(core) 인플레이션은 5% 수준으로 거의 줄지 않았다. 금리 인상의 역설: 금리 인상은 대출 비용을 올려 기업 비용을 증가시키므로 오히려 물가를 밀어올린다. 신용카드 부채는 사상 최고이며, 금리 인상에도 차입 수요가 꺾이지 않았다. 재정 문제: 연간 재정적자가 2조 달러를 넘고 있으며, 백악관과 의회의 대규모 재정 부양이 연준의 긴축과 정면으로 충돌한다. 볼커와 달리 파월은 재정적자를 문제 삼지 않는다. 국채 및 금리 전망: 현재 10년물 약 4.2%, 30년물도 상승세다. 양적긴축(QE tightening)이 지속되면 장기금리가 6~8%까지 오를 것으로 본다. 연준 대차대조표는 약 8조 달러로 정점(약 9조)에서 1조 달러 가까이 줄었으나, 재정 상황상 결국 QE로 복귀해 대차대조표가 폭발적으로 늘어날 것으로 예상한다. 이자비용: 국채 이자 지출은 연 7~8천억 달러 수준이며 연내 약 1조 달러, 내년 약 2조 달러에 이를 전망이다. 국채 이자는 이미 국방비보다 크고, 몇 년 내 메디케어·사회보장을 합친 것보다 커질 것으로 본다. 부채가 40조 달러에 이르면 이자 부담이 3~4조 달러/년이 된다. 연준 평가: 연준 인사들은 똑똑하지 않으며 정치적이고, 현 정부에 맞춰 행동하며 재임을 위해 위기를 미루고 있다. 결국 위기가 터지면 '예측 불가능했다'거나 자본주의 탓으로 돌리고 규제를 늘리겠지만, 그것이 문제를 더 키운다. 투자 관련: 특정 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 매수·매도 추천은 없음. 거시적 비관론과 금리 상승, 인플레이션 재가속을 전제로 한 리스크 경고 중심.

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01. this is unbearable we can't afford it obviously something's going to break before we get to that point [ you make a very good point because the fed's one tool of raising rates seems completely insufficient at bringing inflation down to their target how does this play out in your view does the patient die of the disease or the Cure well it's gonna die of one uh but you know it may actually end up dying of both that is uh the problem you know a lot of people think that the FED has been successful in reducing inflation because you know it went from nine down to three and so maybe an extra quarter point or maybe a half point will complete the journey I guess we're you know we're almost there but we're actually miles away because the main reason that you saw that big drop from nine to three was a collapse of oil prices and other commodity prices that was basically brought about by a surge in the dollar where currency Traders were starting to price in all the rate hikes so the FED actually already got all the bang for the rate hike Buck from that move now oil prices are headed back up we're back above 81 dollars a barrel today um headed higher other commodity prices as well the dollar has peaked I think and is declining so a headline CPI probably has bottomed out in the low threes and now it's headed back up meanwhile if you look at the core which is what the FED claims is more important anyway that's still around five and the decline in the core is far less than the decline in headline I mean it's barely gone down despite the fact that we've moved interest rates from zero to five and a half so if if you know the terminal rate is you know five and a quarter I mean five and three quarters six that's not much from where we are now and so why would that actually do anything when we haven't seen a meaningful Decline and also people forget that these raid hikes are in and of themselves price hikes because it's the price of credit the price of borrowing and so every business that has debt is now having to pay more to service that debt whether it's your landlord who's got a mortgage a commercial mortgage that's resetting or it's a business that has borrowed money to purchase plan or equipment and has interest rates to pay that's just like labor costs or raw material costs it's another cost of doing business that is rising and so businesses then try to pass on those higher costs to their end consumer with higher prices so as higher interest rates continue to work their way through the cost structure you know you've got more upward pressure so I don't I don't see how the FED has really accomplished much of anything and also if you think about the way rate hikes are supposed to reduce inflation and pal will admit this when he talks they're supposed to reduce aggregate demand by making it more expensive to borrow so that people will borrow less and they'll spend less and that'll you know slow the economy the way they describe it but none of that is happening credit card debt is at an all-time record high the government budget deficits are skyrocketing you know they we're on a run rate now of north of two trillion dollars a year in deficit spending and we're not even technically in a recession yet I mean normally when you're in a recession the deficits double or triple and so but they're already enormous and so even though the FED has been making credit more expensive it hasn't slowed down demand for borrowing consumers just are paying the higher prices borrowing the money anyway and spending it so all that spending is still driving prices higher so I don't think the FED has made any uh Headway at all what are the main points of his speech that you think investors should be paying attention to well I mean first of all he had to play uh pay lip service to the idea that the FED is going to get inflation back down to two percent and and do whatever it takes right come hell or high water we're going to do this uh pal did admit that we're a long way from there which is my point I mean if we're a long way from two percent and the FED is already at five and a half you know how are we going to finish this journey if the destination is is so far in into the distance but I thought that the most disingenuous aspect of of his talk is that he's talking to the Nation about the inflation problem and how great a threat it is and how it is how so how it's so important to the fed you know to extinguish this threat but no mention of the massive uh fiscal stimulus that is being pursued by the White House and Congress because you're trying to put out a fire and Congress is pouring gasoline on the very fire you're trying to put out you know you're not making any Headway what Powell should be doing is what Paul volcker did when volcker was in his position and he was trying to fight inflation at a time where the governments were running large deficits of course they weren't large you know by today's standards but they were large by the standards of the day and Paul volcker was you know harshly critical of the deficits and was scolding Congress saying you got to cut spending because if you want less inflation we need less government spending we need to you know reduce the deficit balance the budget but Powell completely lets Biden off the hook in Congress he acts as if these deficits don't even exist he's saying we're trying to reduce aggregate demand with higher interest rates well the government is stimulating aggregate demand with massive budget deficits so which is it I mean how are we going to have stimulative fiscal policy and contractionary monetary policy they're working at Cross purposes how are we going to make any Headway we're not and ultimately what's going to happen if the deficit spending continues which it will the FED is going to have to choose between a massive increase in long-term interest rates far beyond what we've already seen I mean we're at you know what 18-year highs or something like that 16-year highs uh the yields on the 10-year you know out to 30 years or you know 4.2 ish but if these deficits continue and the FED continues with quantitative tightening these yields are going to move up to six percent eight percent I mean they're going to go substantially higher and of course that's going to have a profound effect on the financial sector on real estate I mean the whole economy is ultimately going to collapse when we get a return to those type of rates in fact everybody believes that we're going to go back to the really low rates that we had for more than a decade that's never going to happen but not only are we not going back down to those super low rates we're actually going to historically High rates and right now they're not even average they're still below average but I think what the FED is going to end up doing to prevent that from happening is reversing this quantitative tightening program that is so far Shrunk the balance sheet you know close to 8 trillion it was almost 9 trillion at the peak so we're getting close to a trillion dollar decline in the balance sheet but with these deficits the way they're going the fed's gonna reverse and go back to QE and the balance sheet is going to explode in fact if you look at interest now interest payments on the national debt they've gone from a few hundred billion a year to seven eight hundred billion I think right now interest on the national debt is the third biggest expense first Medicare then Social Security then interest on the debt interest on the debt is bigger than National Defense if you can believe that as big as defense is interest on the debt is dip bigger but interest is growing really exponentially because not only do we have to pay the extra interest on the 2 trillion a year that we're borrowing more than 2 trillion but every year let's say 10 trillion dollars worth of debt matures and needs to be rolled over well it's maturing with a coupon of maybe five basis points 20 basis points maybe up to 150 basis points depending on the maturity but most of it is real short term most of the paper that's maturing the FED borrowed the money a year ago you know two years ago well where were the rates back then they were practically zero now they're five and so as all this debt matures and has to be refinanced at you know five plus you know if they want to do it with you know six months 30 day one year right if they want to go all the way out 10 years well then you know but it's still in the fours compared to where it is now so the costs are skyrocketing I think that by the end of the year will be at about a trillion dollars a year in net interest payments and probably by the end of next year will be at two and I think interest on the national debt will then be the single largest expenditure of the nation bigger than Medicare and Social Security and in a few more years it'll be bigger than all those combined right because what what happens if the national debt gets to 40 trillion and interest rates go to 10 percent that's four trillion dollars a year in interest I mean we're going to be at 40 trillion national debt in a few years we're at we're at 30 almost 33 trillion now we're adding more than 2 trillion a year so in three or four years we're at 40 trillion and by then all that low yielding debt will be gone and it will be replaced by much higher yielding debts so maybe it won't be ten percent but let's say it's seven or eight percent you're still looking at three trillion dollars a year in in in in in interest payments I mean this is unbearable we can't afford it obviously Something's Gonna Break before we get to that point so in this situation here is the Fed ignorant are they helpless or are they just plain evil in other words do you ascribe to the theory out there that they could be intentionally engineering a destruction of the economy um no I mean I don't think they're inherently evil nor do I think they're smart enough to do this on purpose um I think there it's a combination of ignorance you know you think these guys are so smart right oh they must be the smartest people because they got these jobs no they didn't get the jobs because they were smart if they really understood economics they wouldn't have even been considered for these jobs these are bureaucrats right they're not the smartest people in the world when it comes to understanding Finance or economics uh if they were that smart they'd be you know running hedge funds or something I mean they wouldn't be sitting at the fence so these guys don't know what's going on the fact that we ascribe some kind of like all-knowing uh Power that they actually know what's going on in the economy and that they actually can micromanage it by tinkering with interest rates you know and they're going to somehow you know improve everybody's lives uh you know by trying to manipulate the price of money and the money supply that that's that's sheer nonsense so they're not as smart as everybody thinks they are number one um and you know they went to all the the normal universities and had the type of career path you know so they lost they learned all this Keynesian BS and that's how they you know they had the qualifications to get appointed to these jobs so they don't really understand that much but they're also concerned about postponing any any pain they're very political at the FED despite the fact that they claim to be independent the FED chairman tends to do whatever he thinks is necessary to make the economy look better for the incumbent Administration and part of that is self-serving because most of these fed chairmen and people on the fomc they like their jobs they're probably the best jobs they can get because they're not actually that that smart so they like these cushy jobs and the president is the one that appoints them whoever it is and so they want to demonstrate that they're team players that they're gonna you know if whichever party is in power we're going to do what we can to make you look good to help you get reelected so we can get reappointed and so I think they're looking at this massive problem and thinking holy you know we can't allow the markets to try to correct these mistakes because there's so many of them we're so screwed up it's like we're going to have one hell of a hangover if we stop taking these drugs now so we're going to keep taking these drugs so we can get through the next election uh and then we'll you know we'll deal with it after the election and of course when one election ends there's always another election right around the corner and so we never kick the habit we keep taking more and more drugs and so I think it's just you know there it's a self-perpetuating cycle of can kicking until eventually there's a complete crisis and then when the crisis happens they just say you know oh well nobody could have predicted this this is just a completely out of left field you know this is just a hundred year flood there's this you know you know that's what they did with the financial crisis right but this was going to be much worse and what they will do is they'll somehow find a way to blame it on capitalism that's capitalism always takes the fall for When government screws up they blame it on capitalism they say you know we just need more regulation that's all right we just need more government involvement we'll make sure it doesn't happen again but of course the more government involvement we have all that ensures is that when it does happen again it's even worse