🚨 PREPARE! Peter Schiff's Bold Predictions For The Global Economy,Bitcoin and Crypto | Latest Update

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Peter Schiff은 현재 연준이 금리 인상을 멈춘 것이 오히려 주식에 악재이며, 연착륙 기대가 무너지면 실적 하락과 고금리로 증시가 크게 하락할 것이라고 주장한다. 자산가가 1980년대를 근거로 낙관하는 것은 잘못이며, 당시와 달리 현재는 높은 부채·고평가·인플레이션 상승 국면이므로 1970년대에 가깝다고 본다. 연준의 부채 및 소비 확대에 대한 무관심은 인플레이션 압력을 키우는 신용 팽창이며, 파월 의장이 정부 적자를 비판하지 않는 것은 직무 포기라고 비판한다. 임금 인상 요구도 연준이 만든 인플레이션의 결과라고 본다. 단기적으로 나스닥 중심의 시장이 고점 징후를 보이며 손절이 나타나고 있다고 진단한다. 암홀딩스(Arm) 상장 후 공모가(51달러) 아래로 떨어지는 흐름이 심리적으로 악재라고 언급한다. 암호화폐 시장도 큰 조정을 앞두고 있다고 보며, 달러는 금리 인상이 뒷받침하던 것이므로 추가 약세 가능성이 크다고 본다. 금은 1930달러 부근에서 움직이고 있으며 2000달러 저항은 얇아 돌파할 것으로 예상한다. 중국 수요 회복 가능성, 부채 폭증, 탈달러화(브릭스 국가 중심) 흐름 등 자신이 오랫동안 경고해 온 시나리오가 현실화되고 있다고 주장하며 투자자에게 대비를 촉구한다.

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01. that's going to be very negative psychologically for the market crypto Market to me again looks like it's getting ready for a big sell-off [ the only problem that he acknowledged with Consumer Debt in fact he said it wasn't even a problem yet but he said he was watching uh the Consumer Debt you know this is in response to the question on uh you know people with a lot of credit card debt and how the high interest rates are hurting him and he said look you know we're we're monitoring it just to see if there's any stress there like if there's if there's a problem with repayments if delinquencies are picking up but we haven't noticed that yet so all this debt is okay but again he didn't recognize the inconsistency why would a strong economy result in consumers taking on so much debt and it's not just the consumers it's the government that has taken on massive amounts of debt we've got record budget deficits families are running huge deficits they're depleting their savings they're running up their credit card debt how is this a sign of a strong economy it's a sign of an extremely weak economy that's being supported by a mountain of debt the only reason consumers are spending is because they keep borrowing the only reason the government is spending is because it keeps borrowing that is a sign of weakness that pal is not even want to acknowledge and the other problem when Powell refused to acknowledge the the debt and the consumer spending right he keeps talking about consumers are spending and Consumer Credit that's part of the inflation problem the definition of inflation is an expansion of the supply of money and credit credit is part of the money supply is part of the purchasing power and so if credit keeps expanding that continues to exert upward pressure on consumer prices so despite the fact that Powell is talking about this restrictive monetary policy it's not restrictive if it was restrictive debt would be coming down governments would be borrowing less consumers would be borrowing less companies would be barless you can't talk about how we have Tight money we have restrictive monetary policy and then acknowledge that everybody is borrowing even more money now than they were before you have this restrictive policy so monetary policy is still loose it's not restrictive anyway I want to talk a little bit about uh the markets although before I do you know I was watching on CNBC this morning and they were interviewing this woman who was a asset manager of money manager and she was very bullish on stocks excuse me some of that water went down the wrong way she was very bullish on stocks which is you know why she's on CNBC because that's you know part of the criteria to get on there is you got to be bullish pretty much but she was basically trying to uh address the concerns that people had regarding Rising interest rates and she said look you know historically Rising interest rates are not necessarily a problem and she said you know we have positive real interest rates they're higher than they've been now I still think interest rates are negative because I don't believe the inflation rate because real interest rates are the nominal yield minus the CPI well right now the yield on bonds uh you know the short-term bot treasuries or the FED funds rate is five and a quarter and the official inflation rate is like you know two two uh a three-quarter but they're still projecting it to go down to two and a half so she's still talking about you know two two and a half percent real rates but she acknowledges that that's higher than they have been that's more than what we're accustomed to I still think they're negative because I think the inflation rate is higher than five and a half percent the actual rate uh and so they're still negative but they're probably not as negative as they were because we have gone up 500 basis points or more than that from from zero but she said that we should look at the 1980s as comparison that we don't have to worry because things worked out well in the 80s because according to this so-called expert who's managing people's money I'm just glad she's not managing any of mine but she said that we should look to the 80s as as an example of what's going to happen now to this to the stock market because she said we had higher real interest rates in the 80s right there she said they were three and a half percent and so they were higher back then and the stock market did great in the 80s and so it could do great now and I think it was Joe Kernan who was interviewing he's like oh yeah that makes sense so you're saying everything is great and stocks can go up she talked about this huge rally that the stock market had in the 80s and so according to her we could just do the same thing now which is completely asinine because what she doesn't recognize is all the other differences between now and the 1980s first of all when the decade started 1980 right the stock market had been falling since 1966 we were 14 years in to a bear market and it really didn't turn around until about 1982 it started to go up but in 1980 the PE on the S P 500 was under eight under eight stocks were cheap in 1980.

02. also as I already mentioned the national debt was just a trillion dollars I mean it seemed big at the time but obviously compared to today's 33 trillion it was Tiny but it wasn't just the government that had a lot I mean the the government that had a lot less that everybody had a lot less debt in 1980 than they do today and so that me meant that higher interest rates were not as big a problem because we weren't burdened by as much debt we also had a very different economy we you know we still had it to be a 1980 trade surpluses we were still the world's biggest Critter Nation we weren't a debtor nation and we had Ronald Reagan president he was the beginning of eight years of Reagan uh and you know even though Reagan did some things wrong he did some things right I mean Reagan as president is a lot better than Joe Biden as president so it was night and day 80 stock market valuations were super low and yes real yields were high but you know what they came down for the entire decade the Fed was cutting rates uh during a lot of the 80s inflation was coming down the opposite is going to be happening now inflation is going to be going up and so this is the complete opposite of the 1980s yet this money manager is telling people to look at the 1980s for uh an example of what's likely to happen in this decade when it's the polar opposite she's off by a decade right she didn't go back far enough it's not the 1980s like I said on my last podcast it's the 1970s that's the decade that she should be looking for that's the decade of high inflation that's where we are we're early in the decade of high inflation 1980s was what we got after a decade of high inflation but what did it take to get rid of that high inflation 20 interest rates that in the inflation rate peaked out at 13 and a half and the FED got to 20 percent yields on the long-term treasury is worth 13 14 15 something like that we're a long way from doing what it we did in 1980 1981 1982 uh to uh to put a stop to that cycle we're we're nowhere near it and in fact Paul volcker as I mentioned back in 1980 was telling the U.S government cut the deficits cut government spending or raise taxes do something but you can't keep running these deficits and expect inflation to come down well that's not what Powell is doing Powell's saying I don't care about the deficits I got no comment you know we we we we we have no input we don't have any opinion we're just going to take the deficits as they come which is a complete cop-out is complete BS because if you're just going to take the deficits as they come you're what are you gonna do you're just going to create the inflation right you've abdicated your role of inflation fighting and you've also applicated abdicated your role of being an independent Central Bank Independent doesn't mean you withhold criticism independent means you offer your criticism that's the purpose of Independence so you can be critical so you're not beholden to an Administration it's the job of the FED to point out to Congress and to the American public what the government is doing wrong Powell is supposed to say you idiots you're complaining about inflation you're causing it you're running all these deficits and I'm monetizing them because if I didn't interest rates would Skyrocket we'd have a financial crisis the banks would fail now of course what Powell should do is let that happen see it takes two to tango but if Powell wants to avoid that he could at least say you know what you guys have got to cut spending or raise taxes because if you don't then I'm gonna have to do this then I'm going to have to let interest rates rise sharply and everything is going to crash and don't come you know looking at me to finance your bailouts because I'm not going to be able to do it but pal has no stomach for doing the right thing himself and he's got no stomach for telling uh Congress and the president what they have to do it was just like you know he got a question on the strike and you know he what did he say well I don't wanna I don't want to take a position on the strike I don't want to say anything yeah I don't want to I don't want to offend the labor unions I don't want to tell you what I think about this Auto worker strike obviously that's a big problem right why he can't say that this is a problem but again what he also didn't admit is that the reason these Auto Workers need more money is because he helped create all this inflation that pushed up their cost of living this is part of the cycle that the inflation has created so that's probably why he doesn't want to talk about the strike because the reason they need to strike is because of inflation and it's not going to cause inflation as I said the the weight the higher wages won't cause inflation the higher wages are the result of the inflation that the FED caused that the bite Administration that Congress caused and it's not just this Administration its prior administrations and prior fed chairs they've been doing the same thing we've been creating inflation for more than a decade two decades how anyone believes that one year of rate hikes is going to unravel two decades of inflation crating they just don't understand uh the point that we're in anyway just getting to the market the markets did sell off on the close particularly the NASDAQ and as I've been saying that market looks toppy to me we close right on the lows today the the NASDAQ was down almost one and a half percent we're just breaking below a a an uptrend so I think there is a lot of short-term risk in this market there's a lot of complacency out there people aren't expecting the market to sell off it could you know there was a lot of hoopla on that arm Holdings IPO I mentioned it it was down again today it's been down several days in a row it closed at 52.91 the IPO price was 51 and it spiked up to 69 and it's been downhill ever since today's low was 51 and a quarter I think it's going to take out the IPO price of 51 and then it's really going to tank but if you look at how much the stock has already dropped from its highs because it went from 69 to 51 and a half that is a 25 percent decline in the last few days that's already a bear market right this we've gone from IPO to Bear Market in in less than a week so that tells you something but if this thing starts breaking the IPO price so that the people who got lucky and got in at 51 if they're underwater too that's going to be very negative psychologically for the market crypto Market to me again looks like it's getting ready for a big sell-off just like other risk assets because the FED has finally stopped hiking rates again it's almost like a buy the rumor sell the fact a lot of people thought oh and the FED stops hiking raids that that could be good for stocks uh but it actually could be bad and as the um the soft Landing um you know fairy tale is exposed because that's going to undermine the case for earnings so earnings are going to go down interest rates are going to stay up that's bad for stocks and valuations are already in nosebleed levels so we have a long way to go down but again I think the dollar needs to crack the dollar was propped up based on all these rate hikes well if the FED is not going to be hiking anymore then what's going to be propping up the dollar nothing it's a bottomless pit there's nothing but air beneath it and I think it can you know fall through uh that that that floor the opposite move Gold's around 1930 again you know we never really sold off much below 1900 we got below it a couple of times but we couldn't stay there there is some resistance around 2 000 but I think that's paper thin I think we're going to blow through that as I mentioned earlier something could be going on in China Chinese demand picking up uh you know we could be a day away from any kind of Crisis you know the debt is exploding people are starting to wake up the d dollarization The Brick Nations all the stuff that I've been warning about for years on this podcast and even before I had a podcast all this stuff is coming to fruition uh you know and you just got to be prepared you don't want to go to sleep at night without being prepared