🚨 DONT BE FOOLED! Peter Schiff's Shocking Predictions For The Global Economy | Gold & Market Update

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피터 쉬프는 연준(Fed)이 없었을 때가 더 나았고 모든 국가가 중앙은행 없이 금본위제로 가야 건전한 화폐가 가능하다고 주장한다. 달러는 1971년 금태환 중단 이후 금 뒷받침이 없어졌고, 미국이 세계 최대 채무국·무역적자국이 되면서 달러 기축 지위의 근거가 약해졌다는 입장이다. 브릭스(BRICS)는 공통 통화나 개별 통화의 금 뒷받침 방식으로 결국 금본위로 갈 것이며, 금이 달러를 대체할 유일한 실질적 대안이라고 본다. 제재로 인해 각국이 달러 의존 위험을 인식했기 때문에 탈달러화 흐름이 가속될 것이라고 전망한다. 미국 주식은 PER이 높고 인플레이션·금리 상승·세금 부담으로 이익이 압박받을 것이므로 장기 실질수익률이 낮다고 본다. 채권 역시 인플레이션을 이기지 못한다고 평가한다. 대안으로 인플레이션 헤지형의 글로벌 분산 포트폴리오를 제시한다. 미국 외 자산, 특히 저평가된 신흥국 주식과 통화 노출을 권하고, 에너지·구리·니켈 등 원자재와 농산물, 실물을 보유한 기업에 투자하라고 한다. 반면 제로금리 시대에 오른 고PER 성장주와 미국 주식은 금리 상승 국면에서 가장 부진할 것이라고 경고한다. 국내 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 언급은 없으며, 요약은 장기 관점의 거시 견해 중심이다. 리스크: 금본위 전환, 인플레이션, 달러 약세 등 모두 장기 시나리오 전망이며 단기 시점은 제시되지 않았다.

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01. think we functioned much better without the Fed and I think all countries would function much better without central bank [ so is the solution to End the Fed in your view does the Federal Reserve need to be abolished and if so how would the economy function in a world without the Fed well I think we functioned much better without the Fed and I think all countries would function much better without central banks but if we just eliminate the Fed and then in that vacuum Congress just decided to take over the fed's responsibility and so the treasury Department just you know opened up a branch maybe they just took over the federal reserve's building and basically just you know changed you know the the logos and stuff and changed all the letterhead but did the same thing that'd be even worse right so it's like we we want to get rid of the FED but we don't want anybody taking over their job so we need to return to constitutional sound money which means we need to go back on a gold standard and you know we can even achieve the gold standard and keep the fed you know and that would be better than getting rid of the fed and and and not going on a gold standard but we need sound money whether it's uh the FED that brings that about or better just the market I mean the way the country ran before the FED we had private Banks uh that extended credit where people would put deposit their savings and it would be loaned out there was no FDIC there was no deposit insurance it was a free market so before you put your money in a bank you did a little homework to make sure that you know they they had sound financials nobody does any homework today because no one gives a damn what the bank does with their money and the banks know that so they take all kinds of crazy risks because it doesn't matter uh so we go back to sound money and banking but the way money was created before the FED is it was gold and silver that's how the money came into existence it was mine you had real money and to the extent that you issued bills which we had note currency that independent Banks because remember the Federal Reserve Note was originally a note I mean if you look at the Federal Reserve Note that's what it says right a five dollar bill it says this note is legal tender it doesn't say this is five dollars I mean it has the word five dollars written on it but it doesn't claim to be five dollars it claims to be a note because that's what it used to be it used to be a note that obligated the government to pay you five dollars now what was the five dollars that the government was obligated to pay it was gold that's what it was or in some cases it was so silver they had silver certificates and they had gold certificates but they were promises to pay real money where'd the real money come from it was mine so the government just couldn't create paper out of thin air if they wanted to issue paper they needed the real money the gold to back it up and it was the gold or the silver that were the dollars the Federal Reserve nodes were the notes that entitled the bearer to receive dollars you know and now initially those notes were issued by private Banks and then they were issued by a central bank but the central bank was initially designed to be private it's not part of the government it was just a central bank that was charged by the government but it was owned privately it was operated privately and the reason for that is that constitutionally the US government couldn't do what the FED does because the US government doesn't have the authority to print money they can't issue paper money even if it's backed by gold and silver because the only thing the Constitution says the federal government can do is coin money not print it coin it so what does coining money mean that means taking money gold and silver and making it into a coin which is what they used to do they used that they had a United States Mint in fact we still have a mint all of the paper bills are printed by the Federal Reserve right or or the FED issues those notes but the U.S mint makes the dimes and the quarters and the Nickels the FED doesn't make those right but the problem is there's no real you know money in those there's just a bunch of copper and zinc in there mostly zinc now they can't even they don't even afford the copper but we got to go back to sound money and and then if we do that then we rein in government spending but the biggest enemy of sound money is the government because the government doesn't want to be disciplined by by goal they want to just be able to buy votes by creating inflation uh and if we have to have sound money they can't do it anymore if they want a new government program they've got to pay for it and they've got to tell the voters hey if you want this from government here's what it's going to cost you because if the if the politicians have to tell the voters what this free stuff is going to cost they're not going to want it because they'll know it's not free they only want this stuff because they think they don't have to pay for it the politicians want to keep lying to the voters to get elected so they don't want to be on the gold standard but the public should demand a return to the gold standard just so we can rein in the excesses of government but again to do that a lot of people are going to have to come to terms with the fact that they're not going to get the money they've been promised people aren't going to get all their social security benefits they're not going to get their Medicare benefits they're not going to get their pensions because the government doesn't have the money now it's not like there's a way to pay all this because the government doesn't have the money so either we do it the honest way or the dishonest way with inflation but inflation is the path that we're likely to go down because it's more politically expedient which means everybody gets their money but their money doesn't buy very much you lose it to inflation and that's already happening and everybody is complaining about the big price increases this is all the result of government spending and deficit spending this is how you're paying for government so when you go to the grocery store and you get mad at what things cost get mad at the government because the government is the reason that the prices have gone up so much and now everything you need to buy is so expensive what are your thoughts on the summit and do you think we will eventually see a brics currency um well either the bricks will unite around a common currency which is backed by gold or they'll individually back their own currencies by gold but I think one way or another they're going to a gold standard because that's the only real uh legitimate way to replace the dollar right they they you need to have an anchor you need to have something underpinning a monetary system now initially it was gold all the world's currencies were were backed by gold then the United States through Bretton Woods convinced the world to use the dollar instead of gold but with the promise that the dollar was as good as gold because it was convertible into gold on demand at a fixed price and so if you held dollars you held gold but it was better than gold because you could take those dollars and and loan them to the U.S and buy treasuries and earn interest yet be able to get your gold whatever you wanted it so it made sense the world would hold on to to our paper but when we went off the gold standard in 1971 um you know the dollar plunged interest rates went way up so when we no longer had gold backing we had to pay higher interest rates to get people to loan US money because they knew that there could be more inflation but the dollar even though it was backed by nothing continued to serve as you know the reserve well that was also when the U.S government was a wealthy creditor Nation uh we had the world's biggest trade surpluses back in the early 70s we were the wealthiest creditor Nation uh and and so you know it made sense also at the time you know the Soviet Union was very powerful um superpower and so the US was kind of protecting the world from this superpower uh and the threat and a lot of people kind of needed our protection from the Soviet threat uh but none of that exists anymore the US is the world's biggest debtor Nation we're broke we owe more than all the other debtor Nations combined we're running massive trade deficits instead of trade surpluses so nobody needs our money to buy our stuff because we're not making the stuff we're buying the stuff that everybody else makes the Soviet Union doesn't even exist anymore and Russia is a shadow of what the Soviet Union used to be uh so you know you don't have that big threat people say well what about China China is not a huge military threat to the world the way the Soviet Union used to be um and so people don't need America's protection uh right now they don't need the dollars uh and we just showed them how dangerous it was to be beholden to the dollar through the sanctions of Russia and so we've told the world if you hold the dollar you know we got you by by the short hairs and if you do something we don't like we're gonna we're gonna punish you uh through uh the dollar and so people countries don't want to be in that vulnerable position they want to divest and de-dollarize and you know extinguish that that threat so that's just another reason to do what they should be doing anyway because the cost of subsidizing American proficacy is a burden that the world's been bearing you know these trade deficits are expensive for the world I mean it's great for Americans because we get to consume without producing we get to borrow without saving and we get to live a standard of living that is higher than what we would be entitled to if we had to live off of our own productivity the flip side of that is that the rest of the world has to uh agree to live beneath its means to produce stuff and not consume it to save but not borrow as much and basically you know they're sacrificing to you know enable this whole system to continue so that we can keep printing money to buy stuff that we we didn't make and can't afford but when that system ends it's a huge relief for the the world that's been supporting it and so they're going to see a commensurate rise in their living standards as Americans see a big a big drop so I think that the bricks have an incentive to do this you know it doesn't make any sense I mean what other country is going to be the Reserve I mean first of all they're not going to use the euro they're not going to use the Yen I mean Japan and Europe they're not even part of this uh but they're not going to say let's make it the Chinese Yuan or the Russian Ruble or no none of those are going to work the only thing that works is gold and gold Works beautifully and they know it and so gold is going to be the common form of money uh that all these countries ultimately adopt whether they create a new currency that's backed by gold or just back their existing currencies by gold that's where we're headed I think but I also think a lot of U.S stocks are too expensive as far as the PE and their earnings are going to be pressured through inflation and Rising interest rates and taxes that even though you won't lose as much over the next 30 Years let's say if you're in the s p as you will if you're in bonds I still don't think you're going to get a real return that's going to beat inflation I don't even think it'll come close you'll come closer than you will with bonds uh but you're not going to you're not going to come out a winner I think if you have a long-term time Horizon and you want to beat inflation and you want to have real positive returns where your money or the portfolio delivers more purchasing power in the future than it would have if you just spent it all today right instead of investigating because that's the whole point right that's why we're investing our money so we can grow it and then we over time we can consume more than if we just spent it right now I think you've got to have a inflation hedged portfolio that to me is going to be a globally Diversified portfolio that is predominantly outside the United States outside of you know the the you know the blast zone of this complete economic implosion yes the shock waves are going to be felt around the world but it's going to be greatest here at the epicenter so the you know you get further away from it yeah it'll you know you'll feel it but it's not going to devastate you and if you look at the global stock market the valuations are much better you're able to buy stocks at much lower PES with much higher dividend yields in countries that are going to end up being the winners uh from a global realignment of this you know pecking order where right now the U.S is on the top now I don't think in 10 years the us is going to be on the bottom but we're going to be a lot closer to the bottom than the top when it comes to per capita income or living standard words or stuff like that so you want to invest in the countries that you know you're they're going to have a relative mark up on their assets on their currencies where the people are going to have higher not lower standard of living certainly in relation uh uh you know and at one point you know the Americans standard living was so much higher than anywhere else in the world it wouldn't even close uh and now you know you have a lot of countries that have a higher standard living than we do now but we're still pretty high but a lot of that is because we can survive on debt and exporting our inflation to the rest of the world so this this whole thing is going to collapse but you want to have Assets in countries uh where those those assets are going to appreciate relative to the U.S you also want to have exposure to the Emerging Markets I think more so than you might have had in the last 10 20 years the Emerging Markets to me are super cheap in relation to developed markets and foreign developed markets are cheap compared to the United States so Emerging Markets are super cheap and those currencies probably have the most room to gain as the dollar Falls so you want to be there and you want to be in a lot of resources you got to realize that the world has under invested in the capacity to produce real resources and so you want to be invested in energy you know whether it's oil and gas or other Alternative forms of energy other raw materials Metals you know to the extent that we use less oil and gas and more electric well you need copper you need nickel I mean you know you can't make those batteries out of paper or and even paper would mean you need trees so you still need stuff uh and so I want to own the stuff agriculture I think is going to be in in increasing demand so you know we have exposure in our portfolios and in our funds uh to all the sectors that I believe you need to own and you want to get out of paper into real things you know you want to own companies that own real things not just Pie in the Sky story stocks that are hyped up right that are all Sizzle and no stake you know uh maybe there's a tech stock that does have something but if it's trading at 50 100 whatever times earnings or the companies that don't even have earnings they just trade out on multiple of their revenue those are not the kind of stocks that you want in a high inflation Rising nominal yield environment those were the stocks that worked when we had zerk but we're not going back there a lot of people think we are we can it's like you know Dorothy you know couldn't go back uh to Kansas well you know we can't we can't go back to that Oz reality uh of uh zero percent interest rates it's just not gonna happen again you know Europe's not going to go back to negative rates not in nominal terms I mean although everybody's got negative real rates especially if you use an honest uh inflation measure but you know we've awoken from that stupor and we're not going back people just don't get that that was you know just a one-time aberration that lasted a lot longer than it should have but it's over and the new reality is going to be high inflation Rising interest rates falling bond prices falling asset prices and you know during that zero percentage trade era the US did the best U.S Stocks by far outperformed everybody else so as the air comes out of that bubble it's the U.S stocks that are going to be the worst performers so you you gotta you know get out of these assets