🚨 Peter Schiff's Bold Predictions for Gold and US Economy | I Predicted This But Nobody Believed Me!

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달러가 곧 크게 붕괴할 것이며 그 시점에 대비해야 한다는 결론. 금 가격은 1900달러 부근에서 좁은 박스권을 유지하며 버티는 중이고, 시장 심리는 금에 매우 비관적이라 지금 매수하기 좋은 가격으로 판단. 은이 금보다 상승 여력이 더 크다고 봄. 공격적 투자자에게는 실물보다 금광주가 5~10배 수익 잠재력이 있다고 주장. 금광 섹터는 시가총액이 작고 심리가 매우 부정적이며, 기관이 5%(최소 1~2%)만 배분해도 판도가 바뀐다고 봄. 연준 인플레 억제 의지를 믿는 시장 낙관은 착각이며, 연준 의장 파월은 의회에 재정지출 축소를 요구하지 못해 인플레 2% 복귀가 불가능하다고 주장. 재정적자 2조 달러, 무역적자 1조 달러 상황에서 지출 대폭 삭감 없이는 인플레가 더 올라간다고 봄. 국가부채가 32.5조 달러를 넘었고 여름 전 33조 달러 돌파 예상. 재정적자 확대 시 달러는 약세가 되는 역사적 관계가 나타나고 있다고 설명. 금리 인상은 인플레를 잡지 못하고 경제만 망가뜨리며, 실리콘밸리은행·시그니처은행 등 은행 부실은 이미 금리 인상 전 연준 저금리 정책이 만든 문제라고 봄. 정부 구제는 문제를 덮었을 뿐이라 주장. 달러가 붕괴하면 원자재 강세(유가 포함), 채권 하락(금리 상승), 국채 매도 압력 확대가 이어진다고 전망. 다음 확인 신호로 채권 추가 하락, 금 급등, 달러 급락, 주식 하락이 동시에 나타나는지 지켜보라고 제시. 전체적으로 시장이 중대한 변곡점에 도달했다는 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I think that what's going to be happening is that the dollar is going to break right and when it breaks it's going to break hard and again that means that people have to get better prepared that time is running ou I think it's great time you know to be buying here gold is not break in 1900 I mean it closed a week around 1925.

02. I really haven't seen it trade below 1900 so it's in a very narrow range yes it didn't hold two thousand and so a lot of people got bearish on gold because it didn't hold two thousand so what you know it's holding 1900 gold is holding up despite the fact that everybody is optimistic on the economy optimistic on Tech optimistic that the FED has gotten the inflation Genie back in the bottle there's all sorts of optimism out there and very little interest in the price of gold or buying gold and despite all that gold hasn't gone down and I think it's holding up a lot better than people giving credit for and we're getting ready for a big move up so I think you know this is a good time to be buying at this price I don't think you're going to get much lower prices if you're trying to wait for a low price I think you're pretty much in the neighborhood of of the bottom and so this is where you should be buying your gold more you know even your silver even more so I see more upside in silver than gold but I see upside in both of those metals and and buy some physical gold and silver for those of you who are Risk Takers if you want to try to you know make five or ten times your money or maybe more the way to do that is not in physical gold but in the mining stocks if the price of gold does what I think it's going to do then we're going to have an explosive rally in these mining stocks and nobody is buying these stocks I mean the sentiment is very negative in the sector people are still chasing uh the tech names or now the you know AI names but nobody is paying attention to the real inflation trade nobody is buying the senior miners let alone you know these Junior miners that's what you should be doing right you need to be looking at where the big money uh is ignoring right that's how you end up making a lot of money I as a Speculator you got to figure out what the crowd is missing and then you've got to get to where the crowd is going to ultimately be before they arrive I know eventually the markets are going to figure out what I know they're going to come to terms with the reality of higher inflation it's going to be reflected in the bond market it's going to be reflected in the gold market the dollar and it's ultimately going to show up in the price of mining stocks so the the crowd is going to figure this out eventually and when they do it's going to be a stampede right and they're all going to be you know running into one another bidding up these prices there aren't a lot of mining stocks out there even if you added up all the market caps of the whole sector uh you don't even get one decent S P 500 company I forget the combined market cap of all the gold stocks but it's very small uh and you know even if the institutions that are out there uh the Pension funds the endowments the hedge funds if they just want five percent allocation to this sector it's a game changer you know probably even two percent one percent would be huge because right now it's practically zero so there's really no interest even though there should be tremendous interest because again we still have faith in the Fed people still believe Jerome Powell they believe you know everybody else on the fomc when they say they're going to bring inflation down to two percent they believe them they still don't get that they're gonna say that regardless of what they're actually capable of doing but the other way you know that pal is not serious about bringing inflation down to two percent is that he's saying nothing about the budget deficits he's not telling Congress to cut government spending because there's no way that inflation is coming down to two percent unless that happens and Powell has got to know that his job is impossible with two trillion dollar budget deficits and one trillion dollar trade deficits there's no way inflation rates are headed much higher unless we have massive cuts in government spending and that's not going to happen and it's especially not going to happen if you have a weak fed chairman like Jerome Powell who is afraid to speak up and tell Congress what they need to do and what they need to hear and that they've got to reduce spending significantly they're still spending you know like it's it's covet you know we had this huge increase in government spending during covet and while it's come down quite a bit from the extreme levels that we got to they didn't return to the levels pre-covered and they were extreme too we were spending too much before coven now we're even spending that much more after code in fact let me look the national debt has been uh really starting to move let me look at the uh National Debt Clock I just want to take a look at that and see how much higher it's gone hold on a national debt Clock you can see this clock on the internet nobody really pays much attention to it anymore I forget when they first put it up there yeah look at this we're now almost at 32 and a half trillion it we just we just passed 32 trillion like a month ago because we're at 32 trillion 476 000.

03. we're going to be at 33 trillion before the end of the summer I mean this could be the quickest trillion we've ever added to the national debt it might only take like three months uh for the national debt to get up there so it is just spiraling out of control how is there any hope that you're gonna get inflation under control in fact if you look at the historic relationships between the US dollar and the budget deficits when the budget deficits are rising the dollar is falling and that's exactly what's happening now budget deficits are exploding the only thing that's been keeping the dollar up has been the the rate hikes and the idea that the FED is going to keep on fighting inflation and you know do whatever it takes and it's going to keep on hiking race well it's not going to do that because it can't possibly hike rates enough to break the back of inflation all it can do is break the economy which in fact it's already done it just hasn't shown up officially yet they broke the financial Market that already happened with Silicon Valley Bank Signature Bank any other banks that blew up the FED broke them I mean of course that was an accident waiting to happen it wasn't the rate hikes that did it it was the rate costs the rate hikes just exposed the problem that the FED created with the rate cuts and keeping rates as low as they did for as long as they did but imagine what's going to happen uh in the next leg because now that the bond market is breaking down and that yields are moving up we're going to have a lot more pressure we have this low before the storm because the government rushed in uh with this rescue and bailed out these Banks and bailed out the depositors and created this false sense of complacency that the worst was over and that you know we didn't have anything to worry about because the politicians and the bankers solved the problem they didn't solve the problem they just papered it over as the problem got bigger and so I think that what's going to be happening is that the dollar is going to break right and when it breaks it's gonna break hard and that makes sense with these exploding budget deficits and trade deficits and if we get a weak dollar then again that's going to put wind in the sale of a commodity bull market we've already turned the corner on oil if the dollar weakens then that's going to further strengthen oil that's going to put more downward pressure on bonds and in fact if we really get a run on the dollar we're going to get a run on bonds we're going to get a run on treasuries because a lot of international investors who want to get rid of the dollar they got to get rid of treasuries because that's where their dollars are they're invested in Treasures they didn't stuff them under a mattress they bought bonds a lot of them bought treasury so all that's going to come under pressure we'll see what happens next week I mean I'm very interested to see if we get some significant follow-through on last week I mean nobody seems to be worried I mean I read you know quite a few articles uh you know over the over this weekend uh and I didn't really notice any concern you know nobody is really pointing to what happened this week with any sense of concern that maybe this is the beginning of something or the end of something or both uh and so I think it's going to be very significant to watch the markets to see if we get a further breakdown in bonds if we get a big move up in Gold a big move down in the dollar and the stock market goes down uh that will be a good sign that what I just pointed out is is is is accurate that we've reached the critical inflection point in the markets and things are about to change and and again that means that people have to get better prepared that time is running