저자: Kevin/출연RickRule · 외국인
요약 보기
원유 공급 쇼크가 1~2주 내 경제에 충격을 줄 수 있으며 호르무즈 해협 개방 가능성이 낮다는 주장. 우라늄은 핵 확산 및 르네상스로 다년 강세 가능성이 있으나 이미 상당 부분 반영됐다고 평가. 금은 워시 연준이 돈을 덜 찍을 것으로 보아 상승 모멘텀은 끝났다고 봄. 정크 ETF(사모신용형)는 유동성 위기 시 급락 위험이 있다고 경고. 금리인상 우려에는 반대하며 Fed가 관망할 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
Rick Rule says we might have just a five to seven days left before the oil market collapses the economy. Though there's a chance it could take a little longer. The pain might be close. And it's not just that. It's also what's going on in a specific ETF sector. Got to talk about that. Gold, uranium, and a lot more.
In this video, we are going to break down this episode. It's a podcast between Julia La Roche and Rick Rule called the oil crisis is just getting started. If you didn't see it yet, go check it out. But this is going to be a short breakdown where I break down the key and shocking lessons or takeaways.
And I'll give you my opinion as well. We'll keep it short. That way you have time to go watch the full podcast if you'd like. This is also the start of a new series. So let me know if you like these short these sort of short uh shocking lessons reaction videos. Let's get started. So, Rick, super nice guy, chill.
You got to give him credit. He's a commodities guy and he actually understates how well gold has done in the past. You got to give gold and gold guys some credit here. Gold has done fantastically. Uh gold, Rick Rule says, is up 9% compounded since 2000. It's actually closer to 11%, which is just like a fact check that totally goes into his favor.
So like good for him. He says he saves in gold, speculates in silver, and invests selectively in oil and uranium. We're going to talk some of his uranium tickers and some other uranium options as well in just a moment. But I like this, you know, I think he's got a very clear formula and he's got a clear outlook on inflation.
We're going to talk about that in the Fed in just a moment. For me, I'm a little different. I like to save in treasuries for the short term until I can invest that money into real estate, sometimes indices depending if it's like a retirement account or something for children or whatever, or invest selectively into pricing power stocks, speculating only on swing trades.
Everybody's got their thing, but I like that outline. You know, you should be writing down and asking yourself, where do you save? Where do you invest? Where do you invest selectively and where do you speculate? I kind of like that four sort of checkbox box, if you will. Now, Rick mentions that basically public oil quotes, like when we see Brent or WTI on CNBC, are basically an illusion of speculation of the futures market, which is true.
These are usually the four to eight week futures market prices that we see and they're heavily traded by not only options traders, insider traders, I we see you Barron Trump. And then of course people with knowledge on the war who who then try to make money off of that, like also insiders. But anyway, he responds to Julia who asks, hey, like so what's going on over the next 7-10 days?
And he says we're in for a really big shock. He says essentially that de-escalation is not in the cards. This reiterates what we're hearing now is being called Nacho, as in like the Strait of Hormuz is never going to open up, no chance the Strait of Hormuz opens up. So people are calling this Nacho.
And he calls oil attacks on the consumer. Well, this is directionally true. I think it sort of understates how strong artificial intelligence has been as a component of the stock market rally. But not only that, also of a component of GDP. You have to do both because if you only look at the stock market, there's always that risk that you're going to end up only focusing on where momentum is.
But look at this. I think this is really important research here. You can see that artificial intelligence, that light blue segment, has really taken over from the consumer, that dark blue segment, in 2024 and become a very critical component, especially in the first two quarters here. Well, I guess I should say the last two quarters here of of of well, present time.
So Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. So I think he kind of ignores a little bit of this saying how bad the oil shock is going to be while at the same time ignoring that IEA or International Energy Association mandates that member countries have a 90-day strategic buffer of oil. So, countries in Europe and the United States, you know, we are going to be really buffered by oil shocks.
But, yes, there are non-members in Asia like Sri Lanka that aren't going to have as lot of or larger buffers or buffers at all. And so, yeah, there there could definitely be some shortages in countries and we're starting to see some risks of that, especially since the straight-up war moves, just doesn't feel like it's actually getting closer to a solution.
I personally think they're just kicking the, you know, Iran is just kicking the can down the road cuz they're trying to race to a nuclear weapon. That is obviously a worst-case scenario. That's definitely a left-tail risk. But, talking about nukes, I want you to hear what Rick thinks about nukes and uranium.
And I actually think he is totally right. So, first, he's a big fan of investing in physical uranium because he believes we're going to have a quote no-brainer nuclear renaissance. He thinks that this could end up pushing uranium into a multi-year bull market. I actually and unfortunately agree with this.
I think that deglobalization leads to re-weaponization. So, in other words, fewer trusting allies lead more countries to say, "You know what? We need a nuke." We've never had a nuclear country get attacked. Bill Clinton regrets convincing Ukraine to get rid of the nukes that they had when the Soviet Union collapsed.
They had possession of those nuclear weapons. They could have kept them. And a lot of people, especially geopolitical experts, agree that if Ukraine had nukes, Russia wouldn't have damn dared invade Ukraine. People say the same thing about Iran, Uh because when you look at strong men like in North Korea, wow, Mr.
Rocket Man never gets attacked. Instead, he gets praised. So, he's kind of got a point where even, you know, Pakistan is now negotiating in sort of an international front geopolitically helping the United States and Iran try to get to an agreement. One of the reasons they're so powerful is because they have nuclear weapons that they got illegally, you know, against the rules of nuclear nonproliferation.
It's a long topic. So, anyway, I think more countries are going to see that as an opportunity to build up a nuclear stockpile and they'll probably also utilize the idea of energy and enrichment, well, just really having nuclear facilities. So, enrichment leading to more nuclear facilities for energy purposes and peaceful purposes.
I think countries are going to build up both of those. We're going to restart more nuclear power plants. And in doing so, we will use those you know, byproducts for likely nuclear weapons. Because even out of a peaceful nuclear program, you have byproducts that can be used in nuclear weapons like plutonium.
It's crazy. You should look into it. It's kind of cool. But, regarding uranium, Rick likes the physical exposure to just basically spot uranium. It's obviously there like fees involved in this. So, he's into SRUF, which is ticker SRUUF. That'd be like a physical uranium play. Another one you could look at would be papa.
That list that is listed in on the London Stock Exchange. It's actually be a company based out of Kazakhstan. So, you know, maybe you'll see, you know, Bruno and Borat. But, they produce around 20 to 25% of the world's uranium. I'm sure people from that country are tired of hearing those references.
So, I apologize about that. But, then on top of that, you should also consider, you know, something else to look at. Although, I think this one's a little pricey. CCJ Canada. So, I wrote this This is a Canadian company and this is one of the world's largest public trading uh uranium companies. Uh they have high-grade mines in Canada.
Uh and I did a little bit of an analysis on them just to kind of see like what kind of money they make and what kind of margins they have as well as uh how pricey they are right now. Uh when they mine, they bring about 22.7% of their income to net profit. Uh uh or sorry, to gross profit. And they bring about uh 199 million dollars or about 16.5% to net.
So, it's definitely a high-expense business, right? It's it's not cheap to go mine and run a uranium mine. That said, their price is about a 3.58 PEG ratio with a dollar and 23 cents of EPS expected this year and 26.4% growth for the next 4 years expected by analysts. What's my the 3.58 PEG? It's not cheap.
For a lower margin manufacturer, basically miner, they should probably be worth about half as much as they already are. So, personally, I think a lot of the uranium hype is already priced in, especially since you have the risks of permitting, cost overruns, safety, politics, enrichment bottlenecks, mine execution risks, whatever.
There's a lot here. But I I I do believe that nuclear proliferation, so the expansion of nuclear uh refinement for peaceful energy purposes and for weapons, is quite likely. However, while I agree with him here, I disagree with him in another place. He says that the United States dollar lost 75% of its purchasing power in the 1970s and will likely again in the next years to decade.
I completely disagree with that. Uh first of all, just a small fact check. Okay, I I don't want this to seem like I'm splitting hairs, but technically, the dollar lost 54% of its value in the 1970s, which is still horrible. But, in order to get to 75% loss of purchasing power in the next decade, you would literally have to have compounded annual inflation at 14.8%.
Now, don't get me wrong, inflation's high and it's elevated. It's one of the reasons why we've seen gold do so well and I agree with him that gold is a great way of sort of maintaining purchasing power. I totally support people who buy gold for that purpose. I do think that most of the gold momentum run is over because I think Kevin Warsh will print less money than people are used to when it comes to the Fed printing money.
And that will actually temper how much gold can rally because people expect the Fed is really going to run that money printer if there's ever a shock. Uh and that's priced in. I don't think they actually will and that not happening is not priced in yet. So, I kind of think gold topped with Warsh for a reason.
And that was a call that we made uh over at meetkevin.com as well. Make sure you're part of that membership if you haven't considered it yet. meetkevin.com, we've got a coupon on uh code expiring. Uh if you got any questions, email us at [email protected]. Now, with that said, I'm a bigger fan of real estate for maintaining that purchasing power, but everybody's on a different boat here.
Usually, finance people like gold because they hate real estate and real estate people like real estate and they don't do gold. So, you you you usually kind of get people in one of those two boats. Kind of rare, I think, that you have uh somebody in both, although I'm sure I'm going to get a bunch of comments of people saying I like both.
Fine. Uh that's always how it is, right? But anyway, uh a bigger issue Rick Rule actually thinks uh uh Oh, well, let me finish this thought on gold really quickly. Uh on gold, there is a note that he makes that suggests that gold is a kind of a poor hedge when there's war. This is actually true in the short term.
A 2013 National Bureau of Economic Research paper literally called the golden dilemma, which did a little research on this and found found that gold is a poor hedge during geopolitical volatility, but it is a great long-term tool for protecting your purchasing power. Which, if we go back to what we were saying on this channel when war broke out, we said that typically geopolitical issues are a great buy the dip opportunity in the stock market and that did end up proving to be true, though we might have a little excess momentum at the moment.
Anyway, moving on. Uh the bigger risk that he's paying attention to right now beyond oil is junk ETFs. He actually thinks these are going to be get crushed potentially. Uh you know, he still sees the probability as low, but he there's definitely risk. Uh he thinks that these are going to get crushed by a dump in liquidity.
Basically, these are private credit style ETFs. And what happens is when people start dumping ETFs, the bankers that run the ETFs have to essentially crack the piggy bank open and break and sell the underlying assets, sometimes at really wide spreads. That's a great way for a market maker with billions of dollars to make a whole lot of money, but it's really bad for those underlying companies that rely on that capital keep flowing so they can keep funding moving.
And as they're more and more exposed to higher interest rates for longer, especially since we're likely to have oil for longer, Bank of America's even suggesting that we are going to potentially price in more rate hikes. Mind you, I disagree with that, but rate hikes or even just higher for longer is bad for those underlying companies, so I do agree with that.
Uh and that is a risk. I personally not uh on the uh sort of rate hike uh camp. Here, I found the uh the research right here. Stronger jobs report will probably cause the market to price in more meaningful rate hikes. I disagree with that. I wrote down no hikes because I'm of the mindset that the Fed is more likely to just chill.
But I think overall Rick's Rick had a good video here. Nice guy, commodities guy. I think he is a little bit overblowing the oil shock, but maybe I'm missing something. So, I want to hear what your comments are down below. I think we still have quite a bit of strategic buffers, especially since the IEA only released about 27% of its strategic buffer.
And I think they could do a couple more releases and really buffer a lot of panic over the next year and really get us to early 2027. I think they can do that. I think the gold momentum play has been played out and it's dead. I do agree it supports purchasing power. And I agree with his sentiment on uranium.
I'm just a little concerned that the best is kind of heavily priced in already on uranium. Kind of like, you know, the greatest optimism is currently being priced into hardware and manufacturing plays that typically shouldn't be priced as high as they are now. But, hey, the market moves and the market moves.
So, if you want to follow some of the movements and suggestions or even short-term swing trading ideas like we do in the Alpha report, go check me out over at meetkevin.com. We'll see you in the membership. Anyway, thanks so much for watching. Let me know if you liked this shocking lessons series and we'll do more of these on other podcasts or videos that try to keep it short, succinct, and give you extra ins.
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