저자: Kevin · 외국인
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나스닥100·인텔 등 하드웨어 사이클 강세를 강조하고 AI 설비투자 붐(2026년 1.1조달러 전망)과 GDP 호조를 근거로 낙관. 반면 저·중소득층은 연체상각 증가로 압박받아 트럼프 정책이 증시 부양에 치중한다고 주장. 샌디스크·AMD 실적 호조 언급, 고평가 종목은 30% 손절 권고.
다듬은 글
Behind me is a conference that is serving tacos because y'all know what today is. Today is Taco Tuesday and we literally just got yet another Donald Trump taco, which is exactly what we said would happen yesterday. In fact, we're not even trying to pat ourselves on the back. It has become so predictable that yesterday we talked about even though the market started the week off red, everybody's freaking out.
There are too many bullish drivers in the underlying economy to keep the market down. Cues only ended down 18 basis points on the NASDAQ 100. In our course member live stream, we set a new price target on the NASDAQ 100 and what we called out this morning in the Alpha report was that the cues would likely go to 182 to 184 and that Intel would rocket right through 100, which is a line that I have.
And folks, the cues sat at 682 almost the entire day and Intel is now trading for about $113 in the after hours after closing at $108. So, we literally shot up 8% intraday from our call out on Intel. So, if you're not part of these Alpha reports yet over at meetkevin.com, consider joining. But, what was the taco that just happened?
Well, Donald Trump has now moved from Operation Epic Fury, which because of the War Powers Resolution needed to be under 60 days in duration and we've now moved over, you know, we can even go for a walk a little bit. We've now moved. We've moved on from Operation Epic Fury because you know, we don't want to trigger the War Powers Resolution.
We've ended that. That's over. Uh we've now moved on to Project Freedom. The problem is Project Freedom really upset Tehran, the Iranians because after all, Project Freedom was hey, we're going to have a semi-permeable blockade and we're going to get commercial shipping moving and you know, hey, we're just going to kind of pretend like you guys are sealed off and we're not.
Iran didn't like that, lashed out a little bit. Pakistan basically instantaneously gets involved. Coming out from behind the palm tree, good. Guys, wait a sec. Wait a sec. How about how about how about you make that not a permeable blockade, we keep talking, Iran, you stop sending cruise missiles and Pete Hegseth, you go tell everybody that you're not going to retaliate because that didn't meet the threshold of an attack against US warships because we've regularly heard from Donald Trump and others that if US warships are attacked, we would obliterate and send them back to the Stone Ages.
Of course, you don't want to do that because apparently we're close to a deal. After all, Donald Trump is going to keep talking the markets up, especially on Taco Tuesday. Why? Because the markets are covering all of the sin that's happening. Whether tariffs, war, fuel prices, the economic data is still booming.
Now, that is not for everyone. Lower and middle income Americans are getting squeezed. Charge-offs, well, that's when credit card companies say, "Hey, we're going to give up on collecting debt because people can't afford it and we're just going to charge it off." Charge-ups are up 20 basis points just last 30 days.
Per Bloomberg Intelligence, that's a really big number. So, that lower and even the middle end is really suffering. It's the richer folks really exposed to stocks or real estate. I mean, we're at a gorgeous real estate location here. Shout out to Reef Capital and their Black Desert Resort. Uh selling lots over here, selling condos over here.
But, more on that in different videos. Leave me a comment if you want more real estate videos. I'll go through kind of like where the money is and where to spend on real estate. Anyway, shout out to Reef though, you know, they invited us over here. They're great people. Uh we're meeting wonderful people, very wonderful.
Uh but, understand this. We're in what I call a 10-year cycle right now and it's not a 10-year cycle that directly benefits the consumer. The consumer is actually really just part of that cycle right now. Uh yeah, so it's going to be a little hard to see, but we've got this little chart that I'm going to show you.
And what you're going to see is dark blue is the consumer and light blue is artificial intelligence. Uh and when we go over here into the fourth uh the first to fourth quarter of 2024, what you're going to find is the consumer, that dark blue, was a massive component of GDP, over one over 2% at times of GDP contribution with artificial intelligence in 2024 just a sliver of a contribution.
Everything slowed down during tariff season except for AI. When AI actually took over a lot of the consumer might. And if we now go to where we sit, not only is AI dominating, but the consumer is still spending. We almost sit at 3% GDP annualized. And the pain that we've had in other sectors like residential fixed investment, those sectors are recovering.
So, GDP numbers quite bullish right now. Institutional positioning not over-leveraged, not bearish right now. It's hard to be a contrarian right now. In fact, I'm a big, big believer that the 10-year cycle is really in full effect. Here's the 10-year cycle. It's a little messy as well. But, basically, you start on the upside.
It's called the AI build-out. That's like your first five years. This is your 2023 to like 2028. The Fed holds rates. It's actually inflationary on spending and it's big for semis, construction and hardware. Eventually, you're going to get to the Kevin Warsh deflationary commoditization. Tokens are a commodity.
AI is fully integrated at corporations. Today, corporations only only about 19.8% of corporations actually utilize AI right now, which is insane. We'll talk about that in a sec. But, you get to this deflationary cycle where AI creates deflation, then you get the survivors, the winners are going to be your software survivors.
Not everybody's going to survive. Picking the winners is obviously a challenge, but that's why one of the reasons at least why we're seeing hardware spend explode and it makes sense because we're expecting to see AI capex boom to like $1.1 trillion uh next year, which is absolutely insane. So, what what we think of when we look for these opportunities, the other thing to remember is this this 19% of businesses actually utilizing artificial intelligence, in my opinion, is just an opportunity.
The uh yeah, it's 19.8%. We've gone up about 0.9 percentage points. We're expecting to get to 23% in the next 6 months. So, in the next 6 months, you're still going to have less than one out of four companies actually utilizing artificial intelligence. Which what's crazy about that is it's really low.
Now, not every business can use artificial intelligence. A lot of people are like, "Well, I can't use AI to swing a hammer." No, but you can use AI to help you order materials just in time. You can use AI to coordinate your projects better. You can use AI to update your customers. You can use AI to get the customers.
So, there's a lot of stubbornness still out there about AI and that actually creates bullish upsides. Now, the worst thing that could happen to this market [snorts] is the stock market crashes and Donald Trump will do absolutely anything in his freaking power between now and January of 2029 to make sure that that doesn't happen.
So, of course, nine out of 10 times the crap he's saying is just you kind of have to look and go, "Okay, half of this is fugazi." Okay? But, it props the market. When you prop up the market, you actually prevent the pain of charge-offs, tariffs, lower income consumers getting whacked, medium income consumers getting whacked.
This is why you're also getting institutional analysts that argue that right now there's no correlation at this point yet between artificial intelligence and job losses yet. We're seeing enough job creation from artificial intelligence to offset losses from AI. Part of that is because of the construction boom.
The construction boom is insane. We're seeing some of the construction boom out here. It's hard to see it now. They're building a beautiful golf course over here that's already built out. You got a beautiful resort over here. You got apartments over here. They're building new homes back here. These are like two or three million dollar lots of dirt uh surrounded by the other St.
George neighbors. I mean, all this stuff is like brand new. It's gorgeous. Uh but but really, when we put all of this stuff together, we're in the hardware cycle. SpaceX is going to make the hardware cycle get ignited by even more fuel and it's just going to piss people off. This is what I've been saying since the first week of April.
I've been if you've been here, I hope I don't sound redundant. Hopefully, you get new information every day and hopefully, you already join us , there you know, I don't want to sound redundant, but I every single day I feel like we get more and more evidence that says, "Damn, [clears throat] Kevin's call to be very bullish at the beginning of April was right.
That hardwares are going to move first and software will move later." Now, I'm not aligning with Michael Burry. I actually think Michael Burry copied me, but then again, has me blocked on uh X because what was it again? I think I I I replied to him with an eggplant emoji and he didn't like the emoji.
He's an emoji baby. Guess he doesn't like eggplants. Maybe he hasn't seen my shorts. Anyway, that's all I got for y'all. Thank you so much for watching. If you like this kind of content, make sure to subscribe, share the video, uh stay stay bullish at this point. Uh if you are in something that's booming vertically uh like something that has a ridiculous valuation right now like Sandisk keeps going, uh which is incredible, but it's part of the hardware boom.
It's the same thing we've been calling for the last 6 weeks. Sandisk, AMD we've been calling, they smashed earnings, not a surprise. They are actually still growing into their valuation. But if you're in some companies that have really high valuations, once you factor in growth, it makes sense to probably set like a 30% stop loss, especially if you're up to 3, 4x.
That way just in case and there's some kind of crazy shocking volatility, Iran all of a sudden's like, "Look boys, I got a nuclear weapon." You know, and things go to poop really fast, at least you can lock in some of those gains. Good luck. Thanks for watching.
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