저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
주가 고점·저점은 예측 불가능하며 중소형주는 유동성 문제로 매도가 어렵다고 설명. 장기 보유 원칙과 과거 손실 사례를 언급하고, 인도 시장 밸류에이션은 매력이 있으나 패닉으로 10~20% 추가 하락 가능성을 언급. 중동 전쟁과 유가 변동성은 예측 불가로 봄. 인도의 태양광 등 자연자원 활용 필요성 강조.
다듬은 글
That only two people in the world know top and bottom. One to God and the other to liar. They know when the top will be formed and when the bottom will be formed. No one in the rest of the world knows. So I don't know either. So whenever I buy any shares, I do so with the understanding that suppose I bought it at any price and you can understand that it would have come in correct condition as well.
30-40 taka or 50 taka might have been lost. 1/3 of the value that I told you might be left. Even at that time, if I take it, I have it in my mind that it will probably fall by 202% from here also. I never think that while buying any stock, it is the bottom. I never try to catch the bottom. I assume that 20% will go away from here.
And the second thing is that what I do doesn't necessarily fit with everyone's mindset. Ah, if I ever buy shares in mid cap or small cap, then I do not count its value. Because I am like Abhimanyu. I know how to enter. I do n't know how to get out. So the position of mid cap is that my position also remains somewhat decent.
It remains in percentage. So I will take it as per my wish. But leaving will not be as per my wish. Because there is no liquidity in it. So whom do you consider to be Arjun? Then whom does Arjun believe in, sir? No Arjun, it is me who is learning. All the gurus are sitting here. Dronacharya ji, everyone is sitting.
I keep learning these things. Okay sir, tell me one more thing. I have a coat, friend, I forgot it. Sometimes I am fallen, sometimes I am great, sometimes I am grand, sometimes I am insignificant. Sometimes I am Drona, sometimes I am Drona. Sometimes I am Arjun, lifelong I am Ekalavya. I have a coat like this.
Sometimes I fell, sometimes I became big, I just remembered it, sometimes the light of the chat GPT comes on, sometimes I fell, sometimes I became big, sometimes I Drona, sometimes I fell, sometimes I became big, I have forgotten, sometimes I am insignificant, sometimes I am grand, sometimes I am Drona, sometimes I am Arjun, I am Eklavya for life, what is this Vijay Sir, one thing which when we talk to our investors, they often say that Sir, Sir, luck matters a lot when we enter the stock market.
If I ask you as an investor what did you feel? Does conviction work more , does luck work more or does execution work more? What should be the ratio sir? So I will tell you the truth that people do not know that in my life I do not know how to speak in mathematics. I have 150% luck in my life. Let me give you an example of this.
I believe that it is luck for me because for educated people, their education is luck for them. This also happens. Whatever you have learnt in life works as luck for you. One more thing I would like to add about this which I have observed is that luck protects you. Understand that if you make a mistake and you escape from that mistake, then it is your luck.
Like we say, hey friend, I did this but still I survived, then you were lucky. Your luck supported you. The same luck will not protect you the second time. Because for the first time by protecting you it taught you a lesson or gave you a weapon or told you a principle. If you don't learn from it, your luck won't work the next time.
So this is one definition of luck that I understand. Sir, you talked about mistakes. Investors also make many mistakes. We all keep making mistakes. What mistakes did you make in your initial years or recently from which you learned that yes, I should not have made this mistake. No, I am really here, so I don't think that you will keep cursing yourself all your life that I should also tell you about learning.
Please also tell them about learning. Is learning not learning? Learning means that sometimes it happens in the market that the same thing gives different results. Suppose I decided that I am a long term investor and I do not know when I will sell the shares. I follow such a thing that someone asks me whether I have taken these shares.
When will he sell it? So I don't have any price target. I don't have any time target. I take it usefully as if I have to hold it for an indefinite period. It is possible that I may change my mind after six months. If for some reason some such changes happen in that industry then maybe my mind will change.
This may happen after six months. It has not happened generally but it may happen. But the idea behind this method is that I am not going to sell it. In this, I also have such shares that if I add dividend in them, then I get 16,000 times return, this is my record 16,000 times in 17 years. If I add its dividend, I will get profit.
So one idea can change your life. Sir, if I follow this method then I have such shares which gave me zero returns in the last 5 years. Okay, once I did not sell the big ones, they came back to the same level in 5 years and even today they are standing at the price before 9 2020 Covid, so the opportunity cost of this became very big for me.
So I do n't know what I learned from this. One thing I learned was to stand by my principles. You should keep changing it and keep learning as per the time, as per the trend, as per the fashion, as per the cult that is changing, keep learning as per that, sometimes you will get wrong result and sometimes you will get right result, so this is life, Sir, did your team ever tell you that you saw some stock at high and then you saw it coming at low, as you told that in 5 years you saw many stocks going up and then they came down, so you saw them coming at 0% return.
Now, if you had played out this volatility, did your team ever tell you whether your returns would have been higher or lower, what is your experience, sir? Sir, it is like this that I and my daughter often talk about these things. If you were there, this would have happened, if you were there, that would have happened.
So how would it have been, how would it have been, there will never be any answer to this. If my mind had remained the same, I would not have got the 16,000 times return. And that is the only share whose value has been wiped out thrice in my life. The first example I gave of 23rds, its value became clear.
So the thing is, you may never get the answer to this. So keep walking quietly. Enjoy the journey. After work in progress and everything else, I have a quote sir. The Stock Market Is a Place to Regret. Here you will have to regret it for the rest of your life. If you focus on regret I took it, it will fall.
If it fell, why did I take it? If not taken, it increases. If it increased then why did I take less? And if I took less, why did I leave early? You are here to find answers to all these things. So make this your principle by saying that I have to follow this. Sometimes he will be wrong and sometimes you will be right.
Overall, if you are going in the right direction then it is fine sir. Coming back to the market sir, the risk that is going on at this time, we all know Kinika Israel wale bahut chal raha hai. Due to this, Spice was seen to be priced very low. And then it came down to 8090 and then it is currently over around 100.
Sir, do you feel that in this dynamic, India has an opportunity to explore itself further or some particular sectors or do you feel that if this war continues, it will be a little negative for us or there will be a little calm period now. So the answer to this lies with God and perhaps even Trump does not know when the war will end.
I don't know when the war will end and until it ends, there will be some volatility in the market and crude prices will also continue to fluctuate like this. So Geeta teaches us that there is no use in thinking forcefully about something for which there is no answer. One thing I definitely understand which I think about many times is that these Gulf countries and their petrol dollar, whatever their dollar, whatever their history of 40-50 years is since 1950, in which they became so rich, so wealthy, they did not do anything personally behind it, if you look at it, they did not do anything personally, I come to that point, they had natural resources which nature gave them, they exploited them, they did this in a meaningful way, rest there is nothing there, because of that today they have become such a big dominant player in the world, because of natural resources.
So many times I wonder what is there in India? So if we see, the sun is our natural resource that there is sunshine here for 10 months to 12 months. Except for a few places, there is sunshine here for 12 months. So our natural resource is sun. If we had thought like this 30-40 years ago or at the time when there is talk of solar energy now, just imagine, today we would have been living somewhere else and we would not have been able to exploit our natural resources properly.
The way Gulf countries did it. So maybe now consciousness will awaken. Such is the nectar of India, when we push against the wall, then a little awakening comes and something like this will happen. Absolutely sir. So you told a very good story that we have done a lot in solar energy in the last five years but yes, we probably did not do that much in 40 years.
Vijay Sir, one more thing that people in the market often talk about is that the valuations, the valuation matrix of India, had gone a little bit bad. Especially in September 2024 when we saw that all the stocks were at the elevated levels. How are you feeling right now, sir? Has valuation comfort arrived yet or not?
So again see, it depends on what you have taken? What do you have? Because we are talking about these 6000 stocks. 6 Talking about 7000 stocks and they don't have a matrix. One thing is certain, the index within this market is not a barometer of your overall market. The index that we talk about, Nifty or Sussex, it is not a barometer of the overall market because it has 30 shares and within it there are 50 shares in Nifty.
So it depends overall, if you ask me, I personally feel that there is an opportunity in this market right now. Now, if the market deteriorates due to sentiment or if it deteriorates due to illiquidity, it may happen. As I told you, if you try to sell 5000 shares, it gets hit by 20th circuit. There are such shares inside it also.
So that is a different matter. Overall, I feel that value is coming into this market. But keep this in mind that due to panic the market may fall another 10-20% from here. I do n't know this. Ok. So I also knew that this would happen. So I also went to the bathroom and relieved myself a bit. That's why I am a bathroom singer.
So there is a song, my last song, it is this, O my Indians, let's get up and do [singing voice] preparation. Now our time has come, now it's [song voice] our turn. Understand the courage and hard work, wave the beautiful tricolor [song voice] spread your wings [song voice] now the sky is ours let there be freedom of money [song voice] let there be desire for prosperity let there be a happy and secure life [song voice] understand the language of investment [song voice] very good sir very good I enjoyed it sir Vijay sir thank you so much
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