저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 점도표를 올해 금리인하 1회로 상향 조정했으나, 금리는 정상화된 수준이며 주식시장은 이를 감당할 수 있다고 봄. 인플레이션은 팬데믹 이후 자체적으로 둔화 중이고 중국 디플레이션 수출·임대료 둔화로 연준이 전면에 나설 필요가 없다는 입장. 신흥국은 일괄 투자가 아닌 선별 접근이 필요하며, 원자재 가격은 횡보할 것으로 전망. 인도는 인프라 지출과 정치 안정성으로 중국 대비 우위 전망.
다듬은 글
president and chief investment Strate strategist at yini research thank you so much for taking time out and you know just assessing by what the Federal Reserve did overnight shifting its Dot Plot to pro project now only one rate cut this year from the earlier um four uh in fy2 um how do you believe that one should read into this well started out the year with many investors and the markets indicating that we might get six or seven Cuts in the federal funds rate I I never really understood that I think it was just sort of the after effects of so many people being wrong about a recession over the past two years that they felt that uh the economy wouldn't be able to withstand this kind of lble of interest rates and that the Federal Reserve would have to lower interest rates to avoid a recession but I think interest rates have actually normalized they're normal they're back to where they should be the the 10-year bond yield in the United States should be between four and 5% that's where it was before the great financial crisis so I think we're just seeing normalization in the financial markets and the stock market has demonstrated that it can certainly tolerate these levels of interest rates as long as the economy can do so and so far so good and I think fed officials are coming around to that view that there's really no rush to lower interest rates they don't want to make the mistake that the ECB just made where the European Central Bank lowered their deposit rate by a quarter point at the same time announced that that might be one and done for a while yeah you know I was just thinking through it while Fred is crucial fed is important we look up to Fed in terms of getting a guidance to what is happening to the world and what is happening to the US economy in specific but is fed really losing its relevance from a financial Market standpoint because frankly financial markets have moved independently of what the FED communication has been at least in last 18 months right well well I to tell you the truth I hope so I hope it's becoming less relevant because it's been all too relevant for too long it seems that the you know the markets have basically been a puppet that's been controlled by the the FED pulling on the strings and the reality is that uh a lot of the inflation that we had was related to the pandemic and inflation uh in recent months over the past really since the summer of 2020 has been moderating all by itself uh didn't have to have a recession in the us to bring inflation down China's been in a property recession and they're exporting deflation to the rest of the world including the United States and meanwhile rent inflation is coming down in the United States so between goods inflation and services inflation coming down I'm not quite sure why the FED feels uh a need to ref front and center here they could put low key here and recognize that um in terms of their dual mandate the economy is doing fine and inflation is moderating so maybe interest rates are where they should be okay uh where do you see Emerging Markets moving now the historical template is interest rates when they Peak out money moves back into Emerging Markets right now interest rates sir have peaked out does that mean Emerging Market party will start again well I think that the day when we could look at Emerging Markets as an assd class and just overweight ETF Emerging Markets I think those days are over I think we've got to be much more discriminating and investors clearly have been much more discriminating they Haven been buying China they have been buying India they haven't been buying Mexico they haven't been buying the commodity producers like Brazil uh I think much will depend uh for the commodity producers of the emergy markets on commodity prices and commodity prices look like they're going to stay fairly quiet here for a while because the global economy isn't booming it's not taking a dive it's just kind of muddling along and if commodity prices just continue to move sideways here I think that's uh keep some of these commodity related Emerging Markets from doing much much of anything uh meanwhile I think it's as you mentioned in your conversation before it is it's very much an issue for Global Global Investors of the extent to which they want to continue to plow into India where valuations become somewhat higher than obviously China which as you said looks looks cheap but U India is you know it's a democracy as we just saw in the in the elections democracies sometimes lead to unexpected results and uh Modi is still widely resp but his party didn't do as well as was expected but again that's a sign of uh healthy democracy and meanwhile it seems as though Modi is still very much in power in influence and is committed to uh increasing the uh Vigor of the Indian economy so as long as India continues to spend money on on infrastructure and provides a relatively uh politically stable environment and predictable environment where the rule of law still matters unlike China where the government can change the rules on you overnight I think India will continue to uh outperform China all I did really appreciate time so glad you could join us with your Val pleas all right what do we have looks like we in for a good start 100 points of nifty new high yesterday another new high
Comments 0