저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어는 매우 훌륭한 사업이며 ROIC 39.8%, 영업이익 전년 대비 2배 이상 증가, 매출 39% 성장, 고객 수 769개(전년 554개), 상위 20개 고객 매출 26% 증가 등 강한 실적을 보인다. 다만 밸류에이션이 부담스러워 매수하지 않고 있으며, 더 합리적인 가격이 되면 매수할 준비가 되어 있다고 밝힘. 경쟁 압력은 낮고 주요 리스크는 시장 포화 정도로 제시됨.
다듬은 글
Palanteer is an absolutely phenomenal business and it's hard for me to find any blemish on the company's performance. The only reason I don't own Palunteer stock is because of the valuation. I would love to own Palunteer stock if I can get it at a more reasonable price because my appreciation of Palunteer's excellence as a business is not alone.
Right? Many many investors love Palunteer's business. They love Palunteer stock and you can see that in the stock price performance going back 3 months, 6 months, year to date, one year, year and a half, etc. The stock price is performing really well. So, I'm going to highlight several reasons that make Palunteer an excellent stock and an excellent business.
If anything, it will highlight for investors what makes Palunteer so great. And if you're on the fence about Palunteer, you'll learn more about the company and if you can get it at a better price, you'll add it to your list. I know I have Palanteer stock on my watch list and should there be any reason uh systemic reason why Palunteer stock trades at a lower valuation, I'm going to be ready to buy shares of this busines.
Help businesses use their proprietary data, combine them with artificial intelligence to gain insights for their operations, and make decisions that help the business grow their competitive advantages. And for the 3 months ended March 31st, 2025, Palunteer generated 884 million in revenue, which was a 39% increase from the same quarter last year.
Additionally, in the 3 months that ended March 31st, 2025, they generated operating income of 176 million and that was up from 80.9 or 81 million in the same quarter the prior year. So their operating income more than doubled from the same quarter last year while revenue increased by 39%. The company does demonstrate leverage in their expense base.
They have an ability to grow their profits much faster than they grow their revenue and that's a very attractive thing for long-term investors. In fact, I can share with you Palunteer's historical return on investor capital, which is one of the more important things that investors like myself look for when we're evaluating a company.
The return on investor capital measures the effectiveness of the management team, how good they are at using investors money to create products and services that generate profitability in excess of the cost that it incorporates. And Palanteer has done phenomenally in this regard. 39.8% is an excellent number of ROIC.
But making it more impressive is the trend line improvement over the previous 5 years, improving from negative 130% all the way up to 39.8%. The way the company is going, it wouldn't surprise me if they continue expanding on this margin for another few years. the company is so far ahead of the competition that I don't see competitive pressures bringing down the company's ability to generate strong returns on investor capital.
The only thing that I see that can slow this company down is a saturation of the market, meaning that it grows to cover the customers that can afford its products and can no longer access additional customers. So their customers are relatively small because of what I highlighted earlier. Very few companies can afford Palanteer services.
During the quarter that ended March 31st, they had a total total of 769 customers. This is a company that has a market capitalization of several hundred billions of dollars and they only have 769 customers. And that was up significantly from the same quarter last year where they only had 554 customers.
So they grew their customer count significantly over the last year. And that's one of the reasons why I've been even more optimistic about Palunteer stock is because of their customer growth among enterprises because they've found a way to capture the enterprise opportunity which in my opinion is larger than the government opportunity.
And if they can continue making inroads in that category, that addressable market opportunity can continue expanding. And that's really that's really the only thing that I think can hold back Palanteer because I don't see competition as making significant inroads against Palanteer. I've been following some of the competitors that offer similar services in this category and there aren't very many that are making any inroads against Palunteer.
They're arguably at least two steps behind Palunteer in this category. So, one other good sign about Palunteer is their customer value proposition. And even though they're very expensive, the customers that are spending money with Palunteer, they believe they're getting way more than their money's worth.
And one evidence of that is the average revenue for the top 20 customers during the trailing 12 months was 70 million. And that was up by 26% from the same 12-month period, which ended March 31st, 2024. meaning its top 20 customers are spending more money with Palunteer, 26% more money with Palunteer than the one-year period before that.
And you don't do that as an enterprise unless you're seeing great value. If I'm spending money somewhere and I'm not seeing great value, I'm not increasing my spending in that category. But if I am seeing great value, I keep spending money in that category and I find ways to increase spending in that category because I'm feeling like I'm getting a great value.
And that's one of the six things that I talk about in my book, right? It's a really important step in my six-step framework for evaluating publicly traded companies is the customer value proposition because that tells me how sticky the business revenue growth can be. If they're generating if they're providing great value for their customers, then I'm confident as an investor that this company can continue growing revenue because more and more enterprises are going to find out about the great value that Palunteer provides.
They're going to hire them for their services. They're going to be happy with what they're getting when they hire Palunteer for their services. So, they're going to go back to Palunteer and say, "What else can you give us? We want to hire you for more things. What else can you do for us?" And they're going to grow in the number of customers and they're going to grow with the spending from each customer.
That's why the customer value proposition is such an important thing for me in my investing framework. And I see very positive signs of that for Palunteer. I see Palunteer offering their customers a very good customer value proposition. And of course, the customer value proposition would be meaningless unless a business can do that sustainably, right?
I can offer you the greatest value personalized investing services and charge you $10 a month for that service. You would love my service. You would you would be grateful for that service. But I wouldn't be able to sustainably offer that value because I would be losing so much money by offering that service for just $10 a month.
A business can offer you a great value, but if it's not doing so profitably, it can't be around for a very long time. It will eventually go out of service. It'll eventually go out of business. Palunteer is delivering this great value for customers and doing it very profitably. their operating cash flow to sales ratio increased to 42.8% and that's up from -27.1% in 2021 and -6.6% in 2018.
So they've improved their ability to deliver this service. They've improved the value they provide their customers and they've improved their ability to do so profitably. Meaning, not only can they offer great value for their customers, but they can also offer great returns on investment for investors because they're offering that value very profitably.
And so every day they're generating great profits for their services and sustainable profits for their services. Because customers love the value they're getting, they keep coming back to Palunteer for more. And this positive virtuous cycle keeps expanding. And that's one of the many reasons why investors have come to love Palanteer's business, especially over the previous two years, as the launch of AIP has come to be a very successful product launch for Palanteer, propelling the company higher in terms of all of the important categories that investors evaluate when they're looking at a publicly traded company. .
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