Why Is Palantir Stock Crashing, and is it a Generational Buying Opportunity? | PLTR Stock Analysis

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팔란티어 2026년 1분기 실적은 매출 16.33억달러(+85%), 미국 매출 +104%, 영업이익 7.54억달러(영업이익률 46%), 영업현금흐름 8.99억달러로 매우 강함. 그럼에도 실적발표 후 시간외 주가는 2% 넘게 하락. 원인은 이미 높은 밸류에이션에 기대가 선반영된 것. 연초 대비 주가 약 20% 하락, 실적 개선과 주가 하락이 겹쳐 매력도 상승. 현재 평가는 Hold, 밸류에이션 부담으로 Buy까지는 아직 아님. 콘퍼런스콜 검토 후 상향 가능성 언급.

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01. I think the question that every Palantir stock investor is asking right now in the after-market hours following Palantir's quarterly financial results on May 4th, 2026 is how in the world is this share price down over 2% following these kinds of results? And I would agree with that sentiment. Typically, when a company reports this kind of quarterly financial result, the share price would be soaring, but not Palantir.

02. Not right now, not today. And I think the easiest explanation for that is because Palantir stock was so expensive already coming into this quarterly financial update. So much of this positive enthusiasm, so much of this positive quarterly financial result was already anticipated by many stock market investors who jumped in and bought this stock weeks ago, months ago, quarters ago with the high hopes that this company would grow into its valuation.

03. And so, when it reports fantastic results like this, investors are saying, "Okay, we already expected this. It's no surprise." But in this video, I'm going to go deeper into the details here, highlight some of the positives, and if there are any negatives, which I can tell you I didn't see very many negatives in this financial statement.

04. And reiterate and update my rating for Palantir stock, whether I think it's buy, hold, or sell. &verall revenue increased by 85% for Palantir to 1.6 33 billion dollars. The US business is absolutely thriving with revenue jumping 104%. It's all the business outside of the US that's not doing well and that can be probably the only negative that you'll find from Palantir's latest quarterly financial update.

05. The company closed the total contract value of 2.4 billion dollars, which was up 61% year-over-year. The company's US remaining deal value was up by 112% year-over-year to 4.92 billion. And of course, the company's not talking about anything outside of the United States. That part of its business is not doing so well.

06. Palantir is championing the United States so much, not just with business, but politically. The CEO and the management team is such a champion of the United States and so intertwined with the United States uh political establishment, the military, etc. that business outside of the country will be difficult to capture because other businesses in other countries are concerned about having uh relations with a company that's so closely connected to the US government.

07. But that's okay for Palantir. Uh there's so much opportunity within the United States that this won't be a problem in terms of hitting a ceiling for growth for many, many years for Palantir. Operating income 754 million in the most recently completed quarter. They're now boasting an operating profit margin of 46%.

08. This is among the best of the best, right? And if you've been following me, you know that the operating profit margin of the best companies in the world are in the mid-60% range. That's the best of the best in you know, the few hundred companies that I'm following. So, at 46% Palantir is already up here with the best of the best, and it's still at a relatively small scale compared to some of those other companies that are generating those margins in the 60% range.

09. Cash flow from operations, 899 million, 55% margin, and again, , and it's still a smaller size business in terms of revenue, not market cap, and still has significant opportunities for growth ahead. The balance sheet is even stronger than ever, stronger than before. It has $8 billion of cash and equivalents, and at 4% its cash balance will earn the company about $320 million in in interest income just in super safe money market securities or government treasuries.

10. In the current quarter, the company reported revenue increasing by 85%, and the management team is forecasting and upgrading their forecast for the full year up to 71% growth year over year. These are tremendous, tremendous growth figures with profit, right? It's easy to generate revenue growth if you're willing to lose money on the bottom line.

11. But, Palantir is doing this while improving profitability significantly. These are truly fantastic results, and I'm surprised, even though the stock price was already so expensive to begin with, I'm surprised that the stock price is down by over 2% in the after market hours as of this recording. Even though the stock price is expensive, these results are truly phenomenal, unprecedented for a company to deliver these kinds of results.

12. Now, coming into 2026, I've had Palantir stock rated as a hold. And the only reason I didn't have it rated higher is because of valuation. And we're seeing that play out here following these quarterly results. When a stock is already so expensive, it's difficult for it to move higher. It's all of the positive expectations over the next few quarters and the next few years are already baked into the valuation.

13. It's one of the more popular stocks in the market today. There are several YouTubers whose entire channel is just based on doing Palantir videos. That's how popular Palantir is right now. It's arguably the only Well, I I I I wouldn't I think Tesla is the most popular stock. So, maybe Palantir is a close second place in terms of the most popular stock in the US market right now.

14. And so, there's a lot of enthusiasm that's already baked in to this valuation. But with today's results, and of course the stock price is already down a lot in 2026. The year-to-date performance is it's down about 20% now, while the company has continued to deliver excellent revenue growth and excellent profit expansion.

15. So, the combination of a falling stock price and improving revenue and improving profitability is making Palantir a more and more attractive investment. I haven't had Palantir I I've rated Palantir stock as a buy before in the days when the stock price was below $100 a share. I had, you know, when it was around 20, $30 a share, I had the stock rated as a buy.

16. And then when it started surpassing $100 a share, I believe is when I downgraded it to a hold. And now, since these results are showing improving profitability with the declining stock price. It's getting closer and closer to a buy rating for me, but not quite yet. It's still a little bit too expensive for me.

17. Now, I'm going to dig deeper into the details. I haven't gone through the conference call transcript just yet. And it's close enough to where if I see some positives in the conference call transcript, then that might be enough to sway me to upgrade the stock to a buy. I no longer think this is, you know, very overvalued.

18. I would say it's only slightly overvalued now, um if at all. You know, I again, I want to go into the conference call transcripts, and that's going to be, you know, a deep dive where, you know, I'll do several videos going into evaluating the conference call transcript and the uh implications it will have on my valuation.

19. But, a truly fantastic quarter for Palantir. Congratulations to Palantir stock investors. I would encourage you not to look at the stock price reaction to give you a conclusion of these quarters' results. This quarter by itself, if you don't look at the stock price, it's an absolutely excellent quarter, one of the best quarters of any company during this earning season so far.

20. And, you know, the stock price is coming down because it was so expensive to begin with, not because this quarter was not a truly fantastic quarter.